Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

KrustyUCC · 25-04-2021 9:41pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

May should have 1.25 million, so 250,000 a week is par for a week.

True but actually achieving 250,000 a week is a different story

Need to get to that milestone asap

TomOnBoard · 25-04-2021 9:46pm

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

USA to allow export of raw materials needed to produce vaccine to India.

Just wondering... What improvement is this?.. Is it not the case that India is producing a truck-load of vaccines for the Western World already?

TomOnBoard · 25-04-2021 9:49pm

IrishHomer wrote: »

Just wishing to share my positive news re vaccine.

I'm aged 51yrs type 2 diabetes and I received a call last Friday for a vaccine.

I'm getting 1st of two on Wednesday and 2nd four weeks later. I'm extremely happy and emotional to get offered.

My wife got hers 6 weeks ago in work she's a nurse.

She also received a call from her gp and hour ago offering her a vaccine tomorrow she's aged 59. She told them she's already sorted.

So in my opinion things are looking good re vaccines I am exctatic

Awesome... Same story for me re T2. The OH and me got Pfizered 8 days ago. Got a load of after effects, but all manageable.. Still buzzing.. Its hard to describe how getting it has shot my internal positivity absolutely through the roof!

WoollyRedHat · 25-04-2021 9:56pm

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Just wondering... What improvement is this?.. Is it not the case that India is producing a truck-load of vaccines for the Western World already?

They previously were but then their own situation worsened and they need to produce huge numbers of vaccines for their own population, and are reliant on importation of as much raw materials as possible to scale up numbers quickly. The US had invoked export ban since February. This will help them massively and in time, other countries

PhilOssophy · 25-04-2021 10:49pm

I just hope the ramp up is maintained and the queue issues can be sorted out in our MVC's. Otherwise the time between appointments will have to be increased to incorporate these idiots who can't turn up for their appointment at their scheduled time

marno21 · 25-04-2021 11:03pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Cheers. I hate a 'but'.

This is MM we’re talking about. There has to be a but to cover his arse in case.

He likes big buts and he cannot lie.

TomOnBoard · 25-04-2021 11:04pm

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

They previously were but then their own situation worsened and they need to produce huge numbers of vaccines for their own population, and are reliant on importation of as much raw materials as possible to scale up numbers quickly. The US had invoked export ban since February. This will help them massively and in time, other countries

Surely, what India needs from the USA RIGHT NOW is

1. Oxygen
2. Treatment regimes (such as those Trump said he received and would be made available to all Americans in similar situations to him at the time)- So, export millions of doses of monoclonal antibodies OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT ****ING WORKS, to keep these people alive...
3. In parallel, VACCINATE!

lausp · 25-04-2021 11:27pm

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I just hope the ramp up is maintained and the queue issues can be sorted out in our MVC's. Otherwise the time between appointments will have to be increased to incorporate these idiots who can't turn up for their appointment at their scheduled time

In Kilkenny people are being told when coming in to remain in their car until called and then begin to queue.

They are called 5-10 mins before their appointment time and everything is running very smoothly this way.

Every 15 mins the next appointment time is called and the 10 or so people can begin queuing.

TomOnBoard · 26-04-2021 12:56am

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Surely, what India needs from the USA RIGHT NOW is

1. Oxygen
2. Treatment regimes (such as those Trump said he received and would be made available to all Americans in similar situations to him at the time)- So, export millions of doses of monoclonal antibodies OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT ****ING WORKS, to keep these people alive...
3. In parallel, VACCINATE!

I'm reading that the Biden Administration response is waaay more that simply releasing vaccine raw materials... There's a large-scale assistance response being launched, including PPE, treatment and capabilities in addition to the vaxx raw materials..

Very impressed with that extensive, and un-twittered response by the USA!

Please get O2, anti- Cytokine storm and/or any other stuff needed over to India ASAP.. Folks are in serious **** over there!

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 1:39am

KrustyUCC wrote: »

True but actually achieving 250,000 a week is a different story

Need to get to that milestone asap

Very unlikely, I'm afraid.

The dotted line represents promised vaccine administrations. You can see that we're nowhere near meeting the 860,000 for the month of April so it is unlikely that we will meet the target for May. There will be some excuse.

Wolf359f · 26-04-2021 1:48am

Bit cynical wrote: »

Very unlikely, I'm afraid.

The dotted line represents promised vaccine administrations. You can see that we're nowhere near meeting the 860,000 for the month of April so it is unlikely that we will meet the target for May.

One thing I hate with a projected line on a graph, is when you don't show the previous projections. It never shows the true picture and it's really great way to skew it so it looks like the projection will never come through.
What's the latest date and figure on the Irish line and the projected line? The actual line looks a little flat, compared to where we are (but not if you exclude our previous 3 record days of vaccinations)

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 2:01am

Wolf359f wrote: »

One thing I hate with a projected line on a graph, is when you don't show the previous projections. It never shows the true picture and it's really great way to skew it so it looks like the projection will never come through.
What's the latest date and figure on the Irish line and the projected line? The actual line looks a little flat, compared to where we are (but not if you exclude our previous 3 record days of vaccinations)

It is up to the 24th. The lines are 7-day averages so there would also be a small lag associated with that.

It shows the projections for the month of April (860,000) and for May (250,000 per week). What previous projections have I left out?

What is a bit depressing is that even if we met the current and next month's targets we still would not be where UK is now and we probably won't reach those targets anyway. We are currently where the UK was in mid-February.

Wolf359f · 26-04-2021 2:06am

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is up to the 24th. The lines are 7-day averages so there would also be a small lag associated with that.

And what figure do you have for the 24th because I can only see figures up to the 23rd.
Your line goes horizontal over 2 days, so without figures, it looks like 0 vaccines administered over 2 days?
It's a cumulative line, there's no need for 7 days averages as it's cumulative.

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 2:27am

Wolf359f wrote: »

And what figure do you have for the 24th because I can only see figures up to the 23rd.
Your line goes horizontal over 2 days, so without figures, it looks like 0 vaccines administered over 2 days?
It's a cumulative line, there's no need for 7 days averages as it's cumulative.

No you are correct, the last few days are not included. Latest updated figure is from the 22nd. However I don't think it makes a huge amount of difference to the overall trend.

You are correct about the averages. It is the cumulative figure normalized by population that is represented.

Wolf359f · 26-04-2021 2:34am

Bit cynical wrote: »

No you are correct, the last few days are not included. Latest updated figure is from the 22nd. However I don't think it makes a huge amount of difference to the overall trend.

You are correct about the averages. It is the cumulative figure normalized by population that is represented.

It's just the "last few days" have been record days in vaccine administered, so omitting them will always make it look worse.
Also you're assuming a linear projection line, you need to change that based on vaccine deliveries. Vaccine deliveries increase week on week, so it's not going to be a gradual increase week on week, more exponential vs linear.

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 2:51am

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's just the "last few days" have been record days in vaccine administered, so omitting them will always make it look worse.
Also you're assuming a linear projection line, you need to change that based on vaccine deliveries. Vaccine deliveries increase week on week, so it's not going to be a gradual increase week on week, more exponential vs linear.

However if you look at the UK for example, it is fairly linear. Same with a lot of other countries. They established a certain pace of vaccinations early on and stuck to it. So I'm not sure your assumption of exponential growth holds. In any case it would not make a huge amount of difference coming to the end of the month.

Miike · 26-04-2021 3:02am

Bit cynical wrote: »

However if you look at the UK for example, it is fairly linear. Same with a lot of other countries. They established a certain pace of vaccinations early on and stuck to it. So I'm not sure your assumption of exponential growth holds. In any case it would not make a huge amount of difference coming to the end of the month.

The UK supply has been more consistent compared to ours. We're expected to see pretty decent increases in delivery over the coming 6-8 weeks. Expected being the operative term there though. The lynch pin of us meeting the vaccine target will be NIACs decision on J&J, which I expect will in line with FDA and CDC recommendations considering they had talks with them prior to their decision going public.

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 3:15am

Miike wrote: »

The UK supply has been more consistent compared to ours. We're expected to see pretty decent increases in delivery over the coming 6-8 weeks. Expected being the operative term there though. The lynch pin of us meeting the vaccine target will be NIACs decision on J&J, which I expect will in line with FDA and CDC recommendations considering they had talks with them prior to their decision going public.

I hope you're right although I heard similar things this time last month before the various unforeseen problems cropped up. Had these been even raised as possibilities back then they would have been dismissed. Therefore we have to regard the current projections as absolute best case scenarios and factor in a fairly substantial reduction in what we can reasonably expect.

Miike · 26-04-2021 3:51am

Bit cynical wrote: »

I hope you're right although I heard similar things this time last month before the various unforeseen problems cropped up. Had these been even raised as possibilities back then they would have been dismissed. Therefore we have to regard the current projections as absolute best case scenarios and factor in a fairly substantial reduction in what we can reasonably expect.

The Pfizer delivery upswing will bend the figures in favor of the target. If anything I think the best we can hope for is being 2 or 3 weeks behind the target. Wouldn't be the end of the world, most countries have had ups and downs with the vaccination program. We can't ever really compare to the NHS either, sadly. They way they operate is decades ahead of us in almost every capacity.

Supply is really the big issue we've had. The next hurdle is going to be if we can ramp up our services to get vaccines into people arms! (if J&J goes the way of FDA/CDC recommendation). It's kind of chicken and the egg at the moment :pac:

I remain hopeful we'll meet the projections, or at least within 2 weeks of them. Probably dumb hope, but I have to hold on to something!

In other news I'm deeply sad about what's transpiring in India. This could do untold damage to the global approach to COVID19, a population of ~1.4 billion... How many mutation events are we looking at if even a fraction of those people get infected

mandrake04 · 26-04-2021 4:14am

Miike wrote: »

In other news I'm deeply sad about what's transpiring in India. This could do untold damage to the global approach to COVID19, a population of ~1.4 billion... How many mutation events are we looking at if even a fraction of those people get infected

That's the danger, definitely has the potential to undermine the vaccines.

JTMan · 26-04-2021 6:21am

Still waiting for the FDA to issue a verdict on using Pfizer for 12-15 year olds. Should be any day now.

But that will not be the end of the story. As confirmed by a CDC director, the CDC are now going to do an "extensive review" after the FDA give their verdict.

Vaccinations for 12-15 year olds in the US and Israel are still a few weeks away yet.

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1385289714350141443

JTMan · 26-04-2021 6:27am

A new Irish vaccine hesitancy survey has occurred as reported in the Indo here.

- Percentage of the population willing to take a Covid-19 vaccine has risen to 85pc overall, up from 75pc in January.
- 6pc of people saying they will refuse a vaccine when it is offered to them – down from 7pc earlier this year.
- Around 10pc are “unsure” – down from 18pc earlier this year.
- Hesitancy greatest in younger groups. One in 10 people aged 25 to 34 say they will not get a Covid-19 jab.

The Irish government need to target the "unsures"/"could not be bothered". The NY, there is now no requirement to book, you can just show up, that helps. In the UK they are rolling out an advertisement campaign (good advert) aimed at younger groups.

JTMan · 26-04-2021 6:38am

The NIAC meeting is today on the J&J vaccine.

adam240610 · 26-04-2021 8:41am

JTMan wrote: »

A new Irish vaccine hesitancy survey has occurred as reported in the Indo here.

- Percentage of the population willing to take a Covid-19 vaccine has risen to 85pc overall, up from 75pc in January.
- 6pc of people saying they will refuse a vaccine when it is offered to them – down from 7pc earlier this year.
- Around 10pc are “unsure” – down from 18pc earlier this year.
- Hesitancy greatest in younger groups. One in 10 people aged 25 to 34 say they will not get a Covid-19 jab.

The Irish government need to target the "unsures"/"could not be bothered". The NY, there is now no requirement to book, you can just show up, that helps. In the UK they are rolling out an advertisement campaign (good advert) aimed at younger groups.

We might end up with one of the highest uptakes in europe with these levels