Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Red Silurian

Russman wrote: »

Actually, if J&J is approved today (even with some restrictions), does that potentially bring forward our target date of end of June for the 80% first dose ?
I may be mis-remembering, but am I correct in saying that our forecasts don't currently include anything from J&J ? So anything we end up able to use will be a "bonus" of sorts ?

I think our target (of 80% by the end of June) was based on Astrazeneca and J&J supply targets being met and 250k vaccines being delivered every week in April, May and June

JPup

Red Silurian wrote: »

I think our target (of 80% by the end of June) was based on Astrazeneca and J&J supply targets being met and 250k vaccines being delivered every week in April, May and June

Yeah I think that’s right. And with Pfizer at 4 week intervals. So there is a bit of wriggle room there if there are delays to supplies.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

The surveys aren't really showing much in the way of hesitancy in younger people - I think apathy will be a bigger issue. Perhaps it's going to be less about convincing them to take it, and more about making it convenient - could we get some sort of mobile clinics for example?

Asking a 20 year old to take a trek out to a vaccination centre sounds like a good way for it not to happen.

The walk-ins may show the way towards temporary MVCs on campus etc.

celt262

is_that_so wrote: »

The walk-ins may show the way towards temporary MVCs on campus etc.

Colleges will be closed before it gets to the age group that attends unless they were to catch them when they return in September.

JPup

The thing is students probably won’t be allowed back on campus without a vaccine. Or to travel, or do a whole load of things they’ve been dying to do for the last year.

I don’t think vaccine hesitancy will be a big issue at any age level. People want the lockdowns to be over.

iamwhoiam

hmmm wrote: »

The surveys aren't really showing much in the way of hesitancy in younger people - I think apathy will be a bigger issue. Perhaps it's going to be less about convincing them to take it, and more about making it convenient - could we get some sort of mobile clinics for example?

Asking a 20 year old to take a trek out to a vaccination centre sounds like a good way for it not to happen.

Asking s 20 year to trek out to a vaccination centre is too much ? The over 70’s done in the Helix had no issues treking out to there . Nor had the queues of 65-70 treking out to City West
Give me a break thinking 20 year old can’t make it out to MVC .

revelman

Interesting report in the Irish Times that NIAC is also paying renewed attention to the AZ age restriction. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say that both AZ and J&J will be recommended for use in those aged 50 and above. I’m not basing this on anything other than a gut instinct.

is_that_so

revelman wrote: »

Interesting report in the Irish Times that NIAC is also paying renewed attention to the AZ age restriction. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say that both AZ and J&J will be recommended for use in those aged 50 and above. I’m not basing this on anything other than a gut instinct.

That would, at best, be half a compromise but we'd still effectively be down to one vaccine by the end of May and hoping CureVac comes on stream quickly.

JPup

Why one? You’d still have Pfizer and moderna for under 50s plus curevac coming soon hopefully.

Lumen

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Asking s 20 year to trek out to a vaccination centre is too much ? The over 70’s done in the Helix had no issues treking out to there . Nor had the queues of 65-70 treking out to City West
Give me a break thinking 20 year old can’t make it out to MVC .

Give out free avocados with every jab. Job done!

hmmm

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Asking s 20 year to trek out to a vaccination centre is too much ? The over 70’s done in the Helix had no issues treking out to there . Nor had the queues of 65-70 treking out to City West
Give me a break thinking 20 year old can’t make it out to MVC .

Older people are incentivised to go to a vaccine centre because of a very real risk to their health, younger people are mostly being asked to do it because it protects other people. There's nothing wrong with thinking about how we can make it as easy as possible to get the jab, and go to people if needs be.

A couple of years ago we'd have asked Nintendo to put a Pokestop outside the door

iamwhoiam

hmmm wrote: »

Older people are incentivised to go to a vaccine centre because of a very real risk to their health, younger people are mostly being asked to do it because it protects other people. There's nothing wrong with thinking about how we can make it as easy as possible to get the jab.

Why dont we hand it to them on a silver platter .


Most 20-30 year olds I know are well aeare why they need it and would be delighted to get it and queue for it

is_that_so

JPup wrote: »

Why one? You’d still have Pfizer and moderna for under 50s plus curevac coming soon hopefully.

Really just Pfizer. Moderna are delivering so few that you couldn't run a mass vaccination programme off it. Q3 will be better for them but this is Q2 and yes we need CureVac soon if J&J and AZ are ditched for most of the population.

hmmm

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Why dont we hand it to them on a silver platter

If you're going to turn this into a moral exercise why don't we put it on the top of Carrauntoohil. :rolleyes:

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

Really just Pfizer. Moderna are delivering so few that you couldn't run a mass vaccination programme off it. Q3 will be better for them but this is Q2 and yes we need CureVac soon if J&J and AZ are ditched for most of the population.

Two big "IFs" obviously, but if, there's around 1.5m people between 16-49 (as per the tweet posted yesterday), and if the numbers in the Belgian schedule hold up, we're due to receive around 307k Pfizer & 34k Moderna per week from end of May. Presumably most (or at least a big chunk of) second shots of the mRNA vaccines would be done by then - we wouldn't be a million miles off target come the end of June.

I think the real issue is the back loaded nature of the J&J doses and the dilemma of either holding up an older cohort to wait for them, or power on with what we have and end up with several hundred thousand J&J doses that can't be used. If J&J was in stock now, we'd be grand with an age restriction.

PhilOssophy

astrofool wrote: »

They'll have them on the college campus if they need to (like they do for flu vaccinations).

When? In May / June? Flawless

JTMan

Eod100 wrote: »

Moderna waiving its IP rights. Good to see

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-moderna-intellectual-property-matters-during-covid-19/

Devil is in the detail.

Both the Economist and FT say this does not go far enough.

From the FT:

Although Moderna has said it would not enforce Covid-19 related patents against rivals making vaccines to combat the pandemic, critics say that waiving its intellectual property rights does not go far enough. They have called on the company to share its technological expertise and work with rival producers around the world so they can develop and manufacture their own vaccines.

Haque said the US government’s decision not to enforce the ’070 patent was “probably an attempt to play a moral card” that “nudges it towards actual collaboration rather than non-enforcement of its own rights”.

Moderna said its policy was “to respect valid patents”, but declined to answer specific questions.

is_that_so

Russman wrote: »

Two big "IFs" obviously, but if, there's around 1.5m people between 16-49 (as per the tweet posted yesterday), and if the numbers in the Belgian schedule hold up, we're due to receive around 307k Pfizer & 34k Moderna per week from end of May. Presumably most (or at least a big chunk of) second shots of the mRNA vaccines would be done by then - we wouldn't be a million miles off target come the end of June.

I think the real issue is the back loaded nature of the J&J doses and the dilemma of either holding up an older cohort to wait for them, or power on with what we have and end up with several hundred thousand J&J doses that can't be used. If J&J was in stock now, we'd be grand with an age restriction.

The second shots for many of Group 4 would be up around then as well. J&J would be the real loss but so be it if that's what they decide. It offers a good solution for a lot of very specific groups to be done in one go.

Turtwig

How much AZ has been given to individuals under 60 that still need a second dose?

is_that_so

JTMan wrote: »

Devil is in the detail.

Both the Economist and FT say this does not go far enough.

From the FT:

Po-faced sources would make you laugh! Sure but that technical knowledge on mRNA will be applied in other ways down the line to other medical challenges.

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

The second shots for many of Group 4 would be up around then as well. J&J would be the real loss but so be it if that's what they decide. It offers a good solution for a lot of very specific groups to be done in one go.

Totally agree, and I'm not for a second saying I'm in favour of a restriction, more just playing out / idly speculating how it might work.

is_that_so

Turtwig wrote: »

How much AZ has been given to individuals under 60 that still need a second dose?

A lot of the ever-growing Group 2, so it could be substantial.

JTMan

Update from the Irish Times on J&J NIAC decision here.

A spokesman for Niac confirmed on Monday afternoon that it met over the weekend and again on Monday morning and it is “finalising [its] recommendations to the chief medical officer”.

It is unclear if advice on the vaccine will be sent to Dr Tony Holohan on Monday or Tuesday. Once he receives it, Dr Holohan in turn formulates advice based on the Niac letter for Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly.

However, well-placed sources indicated much of the substantive work on the advice had been completed, meaning it could be sent to the CMO later on Monday evening, or on Tuesday morning

hmmm

is_that_so wrote: »

Po-faced sources would make you laugh! Sure but that technical knowledge on mRNA will be applied in other ways down the line to other medical challenges.

Completely unfair to expect a private company to give up its technology, this will only benefit competitors - it's not like some poor country is going to find an easy way to start up mRNA manufacturing. Western countries can fund no-profit partnerships or vaccine supplies to countries which otherwise couldn't afford the vaccine.

Or better still Western regulators need to stop increasing worldwide vaccine hesitancy with unnecessary restrictions on the cheaper vaccines because we have the mRNA alternatives.

Russman

JTMan wrote: »

Update from the Irish Times on J&J NIAC decision here.

You'd at least hope that Tony has already considered the 3 or 4 most likely recommendations from NIAC and has his response ready, rather than needing a few days to mull on it.

ebbsy

Vaccination centers at colleges etc would be a good idea perhaps ?

lbj666

I think we are obsessing over which cohorts will be done by end of June too much. What percentage of the population is what matters in the bigger picture of immunity in the populaton. If take up is exceptional and 80% done , yet there is a big chunk of the younger cohorts still to do thats a good problem to have, wouldnt really call it a problem.

Russman

ebbsy wrote: »

Vaccination centers at colleges etc would be a good idea perhaps ?

There are several aren't there ?

PTH2009

I'd go anywhere if it meant I was getting the jabs

Surely rolling out doses to pharmacies would help with accessibility and take up. MVCs were supposed to be one part of the rollout alongside GPs and pharmacies, but it's exclusively MVCs now for the vast majority of under 70s.

MVCs are fantastic, don't get me wrong, but they shouldn't be the only channel available.