Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

useless

I wonder how far that sets us back in terms of having 80-90% of the country vaccinated? Feels like "80% by end June" is a pipe dream now.

MerlinSouthDub

Szero wrote: »

Serious question ... Should we now jump straight to those aged 49 and below with Pfizer and Moderna if we want to make best use?

If we don't do that, we will have loads of unused vaccines at the end of June. That seems mad to me, but it may well happen.

KrustyUCC

Szero wrote: »

Serious question ... Should we now jump straight to those aged 49 and below with Pfizer and Moderna if we want to make best use?

After the vulnerable cohorts 4 & & yes we should

Apart from second doses no more Pfizer or Moderna should be given to 50-69 year olds otherwise vaccines will be wasted

Happydays2020

If the clotting is with women, why not just use on men? Just wondering.

Turtwig

KrustyUCC wrote: »

After the vulnerable cohorts 4 & & yes we should

Apart from second doses no more Pfizer or Moderna should be given to 50-69 year olds otherwise vaccines will be wasted

Would this not slow down the overall pace of the program?

Stheno

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If the clotting is with women, why not just use on men? Just wondering.

That would be logical

KrustyUCC

Turtwig wrote: »

Would this not slow down the overall pace of the program?

Maybe it would

Be interesting to see what the HSE come up with

However if you give 50-69 year olds Pfizer, Moderna, AZ and J&J when AZ and J&J are not recommended for use in younger groups any leftover AZ and J&J will not be used

That's a waste of precious vaccines

NIAC have created a logistical nightmare for the HSE

titan18

Turtwig wrote: »

Would this not slow down the overall pace of the program?

If you're doing AZ and J&J for all over 50 now, it shouldn't do that much I think. Logistically makes it more difficult as you need to have 2 separate streams going groups 4,7 and 49 and under and another with the 50-70s but if they can manage that, I don't see why it should slow down much on the supply to delivery side.

I'd say it's more slowed down if they give Pfizer to 50-59 as you're wasting vaccines (and as they went with a AZ only selection for 60-69, it'd be pretty unfair to allow 50-59 get Pfizer imo)

Turtwig

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If the clotting is with women, why not just use on men? Just wondering.

No data to show there's a higher risk to a specific gender, age, medical condition etc. If there's a strong correlation established they may consider limiting to a given gender. For now, just not enough info for either J&J or AZ.

ixoy

Maybe they'll say "50+ currently but under review" and will drop it down another age group, as they did with AZ, when they get more evidence to help with their "abundance of caution".

Elessar

We won't have enough J&J and AZ vaccines until June to do the 50+ age group, and it will be politically and culturally unpalatable to let them wait while mRNA vaccines are given to younger groups.

So in typical Irish fashion, we will have gigantic stockpiles of perfectly good, useable vaccines for use in age groups that will have already been vaccinated. So for all intents and purposes, they will be useless and sold to other countries. While we rely on Pfizer and Moderna for everyone else.

An absolute unholy joke. F*ck this country.

Turtwig

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Maybe it would

Be interesting to see what the HSE come up with

However if you give 50-69 year olds Pfizer, Moderna, AZ and J&J when AZ and J&J are not recommended for use in younger groups any leftover AZ and J&J will not be used

That's a waste of precious vaccines

NIAC have created a logistical nightmare for the HSE

Have no issue with vaccines being unused here. There'll be any number of countries we can donate them to that they'll be used in. The impact of these decisions on the speed of delivery of the vaccination program and people's uptake of vaccination is all that matters imo.

Fr_Dougal

Everyone was supposed to be vaccinated by September, are we on schedule or running behind at the moment does anyone know? And I mean actually on track, not behind but could catch up etc.

hmmm

Turtwig wrote: »

No data to show there's a higher risk to a specific gender, age, medical condition etc. If there's a strong correlation established they may consider limiting to a given gender. For now, just not enough info for either J&J or AZ.

I can't find a more recent chart, but:

https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1385630794685681667

PhoenixParker

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Everyone was supposed to be vaccinated by September, are we on schedule or running behind at the moment does anyone know? And I mean actually on track, not behind but could catch up etc.

On track for at least 1st doses. Most people will be fully done.

Swamped in bureacracy. What could NIAC knew that allows them to against FDA & EMA recommendations? It's a farce at this stage. Do they not look at the risk of not vaccinating people quick enough so the virus won't be curtailed and people will die? Talking about 15 cases for 8M doses and no men were impacted. Nearly 5,000 have died from this virus in Ireland.

This decison will ultimately keep the virus active at a higher rate longer in the population.

bikeman1

From my reading the of it tonight:

Continue with medically vulnerable
AZ and J&J 69 down year by year to 50
PZ Moderna 49 down year by to 18
Small out reach J&J vaccine to hard to reach groups which can start immediately but won’t take up much.

All happening at the same time.

A challenge but if you split it out the smaller groups and focused into specific vaccines should work and NIAC would have run the numbers. The HSE must be going mad with yet another change to the plan!!

iamwhoiam

Abundance of caution is all very fine when we have time and plenty of it . It’s inappropriate in an emergency and in the middle of a pandemic .
Can NIAC not see this ?

KrustyUCC

Turtwig wrote: »

Have no issue with vaccines being unused here. There'll be any number of countries we can donate them to that they'll be used in. The impact of these decisions on the speed of delivery of the vaccination program and people's uptake of vaccination is all that matters imo.

It definitely matters if that wastage results in missed targets for the vaccine program and an even longer easing of restrictions for all society as a result

You might vaccinate 50-70 year olds quicker but then that has knock on effects on the age groups under that which can't use AZ and J&J

Fr_Dougal

PhoenixParker wrote: »

On track for at least 1st doses. Most people will be fully done.

So behind? The goal was to have everyone fully vaccinated. I know there have been several issues like supply etc., just want to know where we are.

ixoy

Do NIAC have to do any modelling? Do they have to account for the fact that, if they limit the vaccine by X amount, then it means Y number of people have to wait longer and are put at risk? Or do they just focus on age groups and completely ignore the knock on effects because that's someone else's problem?

Turtwig

hmmm wrote: »

I can't find a more recent chart, but:

https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1385630794685681667

Yeah saw that. I know it was not possible for them provide it but I'd have loved a breakdown by profession and income. If as reported the US is deploying this vaccine in homeless communities how likely is that any cases of this incredibly specific condition were going to be detected? They may not be detected even now but at least with the pause to spread greater awareness, in a few weeks we should have better idea of the actual incident rate of the adverse event. For now, the stats are in flux and it's a safe bet imo to say there's an undercount at the moment.

PhoenixParker

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

So behind? The goal was to have everyone fully vaccinated. I know there have been several issues like supply etc., just want to know where we are.

Not really behind. AZ has a dose interval of 12 weeks to work best. That means any AZ doses past June 1st will need a second dose in September. That's the only reason everyone wouldn't be fully done in September.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/niac-to-recommend-johnson-johnson-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines-for-over-50s-1.4547891

Astra and jandj 50 and over

Hurrache

hmmm wrote: »

Unless we have data which is not available to other regulators who have not imposed an age restriction, there's nothing wrong on a discussion forum asking why the recommendation in Ireland is different.

All well and good, but that's not what I commented on.

Turtwig

KrustyUCC wrote: »

It definitely matters if that wastage results in missed targets for the vaccine program and an even longer easing of restrictions for all society as a result

You might vaccinate 50-70 year olds quicker but then that has knock on effects on the age groups under that which can't use AZ and J&J

I think we're on the same hymn sheet here. We both want the most timely delivery of the program. Neither of us want vaccines sitting unused when people still need them. My original point was I have no issue if after the program is completed we have vaccines unused. I don't care if AZ is left sitting in a fridge for donation to another nation. I just want the program to be completely as swiftly as reasonably possible with herd immunity achieved.

Doc07

davidod1983 wrote: »

Swamped in bureacracy. What could NIAC knew that allows them to against FDA & EMA recommendations? It's a farce at this stage. Do they not look at the risk of not vaccinating people quick enough so the virus won't be curtailed and people will die? Talking about 1 case per 1.1 million of a rare blood clot in the USA. Nearly 5,000 have died from this virus in Ireland.

This decison will ultimately keep the virus active at a higher rate longer in the population.

No problem with decisions being questioned but it might be worth pointing out that NIAC have not gone against any EMA recommendations.

EMA (the regulator) approve the vaccine so it is available for use but do not give the actual recommendations for who and when it’s used. They actually put in a sentence in the licence for every vaccine that states

‘The use of this vaccine should be in accordance with official recommendations.’

In Ireland those recommendations come from NIAC. Some EU countries will make the same, some will differ. Outside of the data the EMA (and in USA FDA) use for license decisions, NIAC and their equivalents across Europe have to also take into account the epidemiology and impact of Covid in their country and the presence or not of alternatives.

ixoy

ixoy wrote: »

Do NIAC have to do any modelling? Do they have to account for the fact that, if they limit the vaccine by X amount, then it means Y number of people have to wait longer and are put at risk? Or do they just focus on age groups and completely ignore the knock on effects because that's someone else's problem?

They should leave the decisions to the EMA. These old timers couldn't possibly have the modelling, resources or the data to compare to the EMA.

Doc07

davidod1983 wrote: »

They should leave the decisions to the EMA. These old timers couldn't possibly have the modelling, resources or the data to compare to the EMA.

NIAC and indeed the government can make use of modelling. It might surprise people but EMA and other regulators generally do not use modelling for vaccine approval decisions.

KrustyUCC

Turtwig wrote: »

I think we're on the same hymn sheet here. We both want the most timely delivery of the program. Neither of us want vaccines sitting unused when people still need them. My original point was I have no issue if after the program is completed we have vaccines unused. I don't care if AZ is left sitting in a fridge for donation to another nation. I just want the program to be completely as swiftly as reasonably possible with herd immunity achieved.

Agreed

We'll definitely have left over vaccine after the program

Sure we have 2.2 million J&J on order alone

I just don't agree with wasting AZ and J&J when younger groups will remain unvaccinated

It's probably logistically harder for HSE but I do think after cohort 4 & 7 then it's AZ and J&J alone for 50-69 year olds bar second doses