Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

funnydoggy

BigMo1 wrote: »

Seriously? We have taken the most conservative action at nearly every turn during this pandemic.

To be fair, Dr. Glynn did say last night that we're doing this out of caution, and if AZ was our only vaccine it wouldn't be restricted.

J&J's impact should hopefully be big enough to avoid any restrictions.

Chris_5339762

The longer this goes on for, the more push there'll be for a vaccine passport for shops/restaurants etc. It's inevitable, especially if delays continue to mount.

I'm happy enough "doing my bit" and sticking to restrictions because the people I meet don't know that I'm vaccinated. FHCW.

But at the back of my mind, especially with increasing evidence out there that vaccines stop or vastly reduce transmission, there is a niggling voice "Why the hell am I still restricted when I am fully vaccinated? I'm safe to do things again"? I'm repressing it for now.

I know there are myriad hurdles to just saying "vaccinated people off you go and have fun", but the more that get vaccinated and the more delays there are, a collective voice might start to rumble louder.

Cork2021

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Hold your horses until its looked into.

No point in getting worked up.

In an Irish context the risk appears lower than AZ. Given the impact J&J would have here I wouldn't see them applying the same threshold.

No I’ve had enough! The ratio for those 6 cases in 7m is 0.00000086% that’s fûcking crazy pausing it for that minuscule risk! It’s shocking and you know as well as I do an abundance of caution will now be taken!
Let’s us all sign a waiver to any side affects and get on with this.
I want my life back as do the majority of the population and this only slowing it and creating vaccine hesitation

Widescreen

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Hold your horses until its looked into.

No point in getting worked up.

In an Irish context the risk appears lower than AZ. Given the impact J&J would have here I wouldn't see them applying the same threshold.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, when Ms Butler and co have deliberated.

BigMo1

funnydoggy wrote: »

To be fair, Dr. Glynn did say last night that we're doing this out of caution, and if AZ was our only vaccine it wouldn't be restricted.

J&J's impact should hopefully be big enough to avoid any restrictions.

I'd take that with an ocean of salt.

If the data shows that J&J has a similar likelihood of clotting events that AZ has, it's now a very hard sell to say J&J is OK where as AZ isn't.

I'd 100% gleefully take either of course.

GLaDOS

6 cases out of 7 million jabs, all women.

More data to come I'm sure, but the risk to men must be infinitesimal.

Continue jabbing men with it while we figure out why it's affecting women.

ceegee

Surely there's enough of an argument to push out the pfizer 2nd doses by a few weeks. Even pushing it to 6 weeks would speed up the number of people with one dose significantly

Multipass

GLaDOS wrote: »

6 cases out of 7 million jabs, all women.

More data to come I'm sure, but the risk to men must be infinitesimal.

Continue jabbing men with it while we figure out why it's affecting women.

It’s far far far (I can’t write enough fars) too small a dataset to have any significance.

funnydoggy

GLaDOS wrote: »

6 cases out of 7 million jabs, all women.

More data to come I'm sure, but the risk to men must be infinitesimal.

Continue jabbing men with it while we figure out why it's affecting women.

That would not go down well lol

Multipass

ceegee wrote: »

Surely there's enough of an argument to push out the pfizer 2nd doses by a few weeks. Even pushing it to 6 weeks would speed up the number of people with one dose significantly

Given the high level of protection from the first shot there’s a very good argument to be made to give one shot to everyone in the country.

funnydoggy

Multipass wrote: »

Given the high level of protection from the first shot there’s a very good argument to be made to give one shot to everyone in the country.

I like this idea. Booster in the winter maybe?

stephenjmcd

BigMo1 wrote: »

Seriously? We have taken the most conservative action at nearly every turn during this pandemic.

Firstly you have to look at incidence. On the face of it with numbers so far (not all that large a dataset but its what we have to go on), AZ would appear to have a higher incidence of these types of rare events than J&J. The states have a very widespread vaccine programme in all adult ages now, 7 million doses, 6 events. Compare & contrast to the Irish expected delivery before end of Q2, you wouldn't expect to see a case from 880k doses.

Now look at AZ, higher frequency than that, let's take the UK for example seeing as they've given out the most AZ, 79 events in 20 million doses, so 1 every 253k roughly. Ireland has seen potentially 1 in the same ballpark of AZ vaccines given out.

Apply the J&J numbers so far to 20 million doses, you might expect in the region of 15 or so events.

Secondly then is the risk, with AZ given it's a 2 dose schedule with a long interval you can kind of take more conservative decisions around it. Compare to J&J , 1 shot and done. The risk beneift profile is different

ACitizenErased

Looks like the incidence is considerably less in the J&J than AZ. 6 cases out of 6.8 million doses. About 0.2 per 250,000.

Scuid Mhór

ACitizenErased wrote: »

J&J Vaccine being paused in the USA.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html

This thread is going down in boards posterity.

Scuid Mhór

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looks like the incidence is considerably less in the J&J than AZ. 6 cases out of 6.8 million doses. About 0.2 per 250,000.

There’s no way it will be restricted here based on those stats. I’m hopeful the AZ announcement yesterday won’t have too much of an impact on our vaccination rates.

Doctor Jimbob

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looks like the incidence is considerably less in the J&J than AZ. 6 cases out of 6.8 million doses. About 0.2 per 250,000.

With only one of those resulting in death. That's approaching lottery winning odds.

muddypuppy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In all age cohorts, the risk of dying from Covid-19 is much greater than the risk of dying from a Covid-19 vaccine.

The number thrown around is that 1 out of 250000 for the vaccine might dye, while https://qcovid.org/Calculation gives me 1 out of 333333 chance of dying if I get covid.
I'm not saying that the vaccine is not safe, should not be used, be an anti-vax etc... in fact if I was offered AZ I would do it since the probability of dying is infinitesimal anyway and vaccines are the only way we will reopen our society. But realize that if you're young and healthy, the chance of dying because of covid is really small too.

lbj666

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Firstly you have to look at incidence. On the face of it with numbers so far (not all that large a dataset but its what we have to go on), AZ would appear to have a higher incidence of these types of rare events than J&J. The states have a very widespread vaccine programme in all adult ages now, 7 million doses, 6 events. Compare & contrast to the Irish expected delivery before end of Q2, you wouldn't expect to see a case from 880k doses.

Now look at AZ, higher frequency than that, let's take the UK for example seeing as they've given out the most AZ, 79 events in 20 million doses, so 1 every 253k roughly. Ireland has seen potentially 1 in the same ballpark of AZ vaccines given out.

Apply the J&J numbers so far to 20 million doses, you might expect in the region of 15 or so events.

Secondly then is the risk, with AZ given it's a 2 dose schedule with a long interval you can kind of take more conservative decisions around it. Compare to J&J , 1 shot and done. The risk beneift profile is different

They have set an abritary ratio to set a line at over 60s for AZ they have acknowledged is super cautious. So the same ratio for J&J can be taken as an aid and whatever age group that falls into, hopefully none. The are other mitigating factors such as no 2nd dose to worry about and the detrimental impact to rollout out it could have if super cautious positions are taken on 2 vaccine available.

BigMo1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Firstly you have to look at incidence. On the face of it with numbers so far (not all that large a dataset but its what we have to go on), AZ would appear to have a higher incidence of these types of rare events than J&J. The states have a very widespread vaccine programme in all adult ages now, 7 million doses, 6 events. Compare & contrast to the Irish expected delivery before end of Q2, you wouldn't expect to see a case from 880k doses.

Now look at AZ, higher frequency than that, let's take the UK for example seeing as they've given out the most AZ, 79 events in 20 million doses, so 1 every 253k roughly. Ireland has seen potentially 1 in the same ballpark of AZ vaccines given out.

Apply the J&J numbers so far to 20 million doses, you might expect in the region of 15 or so events.

Secondly then is the risk, with AZ given it's a 2 dose schedule with a long interval you can kind of take more conservative decisions around it. Compare to J&J , 1 shot and done. The risk beneift profile is different

I 100% agree the risk benefit profile is different but I'd argue the risk-benefit ratio is hugely in favour of full rollout of both.

Ireland's policy has been really conservative to this. I'd be quite surprised if that changes in relation to this, especially after how prominent this clot news has become.

I hope I'm wrong.

Doctor Jimbob

muddypuppy wrote: »

The number thrown around is that 1 out of 250000 for the vaccine might dye, while https://qcovid.org/Calculation gives me 1 out of 333333 chance of dying if I get covid.
I'm not saying that the vaccine is not safe, should not be used, be an anti-vax etc... in fact if I was offered AZ I would do it since the probability of dying is infinitesimal anyway and vaccines are the only way we will reopen our society. But realize that if you're young and healthy, the chance of dying because of covid is really small too.

Based on that I have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying from COVID and a 1 in 5525 chance of ending up in hospital with COVID.

I'd sign up for AZ right this minute if given the choice.

Gael23

We’re screwed if J&J is suspended here

Furze99

There's a credibility issue opening up rapidly. If the HSE and State don't address it quickly, then the AZ vaccine is 'f****d' here.

I've read & listened to them this morning. Essentially the message is 'we're not giving this to anyone under 60' but 'we've also used other vaccines on over 70s'.

That leaves a cohort of citizens aged between 60-70 who are expected to take this?? To use up vaccine supplies delivered, speed up the process and take their chances?? Sorry.............. no go.

What vaccines are Ronan Glynn, Tony Holohan, Leo Varadkar or the Minister for Health taking or going to take???

What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

Hurrache

ACitizenErased wrote: »

J&J Vaccine being paused in the USA.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html

Oh noes, another abundance of caution decision, only in Ireland yadda yadda yadda.

However, bit of a pain given the issues with AZ, bad timing alright.

bucketybuck

Iagree wrote: »

It makes me confident that when I do get a vaccine it will be safe.

What do you actually think the outcome of this will be?

That they will ditch the AZ vaccine completely, even though that would likely result in far more deaths than there ever would be from blood clots?

That they modify the vaccine in some way? That seems, unlikely...

That they **** about for a few weeks and then start using it again anyway? Again, despite that causing more deaths than would be saved?

This is all just irresponsible grandstanding from incompetent and indecisive leadership.

titan18

Furze99 wrote: »

There's a credibility issue opening up rapidly. If the HSE and State don't address it quickly, then the AZ vaccine is 'f****d' here.

I've read & listened to them this morning. Essentially the message is 'we're not giving this to anyone under 60' but 'we've also used other vaccines on over 70s'.

That leaves a cohort of citizens aged between 60-70 who are expected to take this?? To use up vaccine supplies delivered, speed up the process and take their chances?? Sorry.............. no go.

What vaccines are Ronan Glynn, Tony Holohan, Leo Varadkar or the Minister for Health taking or going to take???

What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

Ya, they're all under 60 so they won't, but Martin is 60, so it's him who needs to take it really to assure people in that age group. If he doesn't and gets another, I'd say it's going to be very tough to get people on board.

Hurrache

ebbsy wrote: »

Had a look on Sky News just now, the Chemists in the UK are jabbing to beat the band.

Over here ? Our people who work in the chemists have not even got theirs yet.

When we had the banking crisis we received a loan from the UK.

It is now time to ask them for help again. There is no shame.

At this point I'm convinced you're a paid up Tory member with all your propaganda posts.

Just something for you to note, they were the ones that wouldn't let us pay it back early without penalty as they wanted to get all the interest they could possibly get out of us.

Sierra Oscar

The J&C vaccine uses the same vector as the AZ vaccine. There is a very good chance that the same age restrictions will be placed on the J&C vaccine that have been placed on the AZ vaccine if the same blood clot trend emerges. Unfortunately it seems that trend is emerging.

lbj666

Iagree wrote: »

In the short term yes, but long term don't agree with that all, it will only increase the confidence in vaccine safety if they are going to ban vaccines with 1 in a million blood clot risk, that's a statement of quality required.

As a member of the general public and not a medical person, I take great confidence in goverments brave enough to suspend vaccine's from pharmaceutical giants, they could have just ignored it and ploughed on like alot of posters here want to do, but that would have been much worse for the public's confidence in vaccine's, by banning J&J and Astra that tells me a non scientific individual that the other 2 Pfizer and Moderna are incredibly safe if they are willing to ban vaccine's that cause death 1 in a million

Thats a bit simplestic though in these circumstances where the over the overall health and well being of the population has to be considered , not just the risk at an individual level.

They are using the same principles as if it was a vaccine for a smaller cohort only like HPV or Flu or whatever, which is understandable but very frustrating in the far broader context of there being a national/global health crisis.

ebbsy

Hurrache wrote: »

At this point I'm convinced you're a paid up Tory member with all your propaganda posts.

Just something for you to note, they were the ones that wouldn't let us pay it back early without penalty as they wanted to get all the interest they could possibly get out of us.

I wish I was, then I would have the jab already.

ACitizenErased

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The J&C vaccine uses the same vector as the AZ vaccine. There is a very good chance that the same age restrictions will be placed on the J&C vaccine that have been placed on the AZ vaccine if the same blood clot trend emerges. Unfortunately it seems that trend is emerging.

Current data suggests J&J has 5 times less so I disagree tbh.

Also they're not the same vector. AZ is from chimps, J&J is a human adenovirus