Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Godot.

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Think we should be preparing for some J&J related disappointment in the future. Fingers crossed production in Baltimore won't be stopped for long

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-50s-in-good-health-who-had-covid-19-to-be-considered-fully-vaccinated-after-one-jab-1.4548886?_ga=2.994546.272489767.1619539893-1649544013.1608592704






https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/at-request-fda-emergent-s-troubled-baltimore-plant-suspends-j-j-vaccine-production

More about Emergent. Jaysus, it sounds like they had some cowboys running things there.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/21/health/fda-emergent-johnson--johnson-vaccine-bn/index.html
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/emergent-ceo-sold-more-than-10-million-stock-before-j-j-doses-were-scrapped-report

I fear that the big J&J deliveries in late May/June won't happen now. J&J are the biggest pharma company in the world so you'd hope they'd be able to fix issues a lot quicker than AZ though.

Turtwig

hmmm wrote: »

it mutates at a slower speed than influenza we should be able to tweak vaccines in advance to deal with new mutations over the next few years.

I largely agree with everything you said up until this last point. Influenza while 'faster' to change things doesn't have near as many hosts as Coronavirus has. Coronavirus currently has a reservoir of millions of hosts for which it can play the changing game.

As for Mills et al being super cynical here himself, Luke O'Neill, Staines spend so much time doing media interviews that I've no idea how they can keep up to date on the studies and stuff they talk about it. Maybe I'm a slow reader but they seem to comment on what are very often lengthy detailed studies absurdly quick and often in very strange ways.

Finally, please don't confuse scientists in the media with being representative of the view in the mainstream. It's a very broad brush to tar all people in a particular field as worriers. Especially if you're basing if off those that repeatedly appear on primetime television.

Goldengirl

is_that_so wrote: »

Not dismissing it, just looking for more voices although even he's guessing as well. Israel's programme has not been affected by VOCs. TBH it just sounds like people on the hunt for more "scariants".

Sounds pretty dismissive when you resort to using the word " scariants " in response to my post .

is_that_so

Goldengirl wrote: »

Sounds pretty dismissive when you resort to using the word " scariants " in response to my post .

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here. The problem with Mills et al is that they are prognosticating and they have about as much idea as the rest of us.

PhilOssophy

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. It is.
Better to have proper full protection than a population half done , like the UK , who are now starting to get very anxious about the different vocs getting a hold before people fully immunised .
Kingston Mills, who is a very sane and sensible person through this , got the wind up a lot of people last night discussing how the variants of concern are increasingly likely to prolong this .

I know there are people on here who think it is all over once we are vaccinated but looking very much as if this is just the start , unfortunately .

Do variants not happen in an unvaccinated population?

Strazdas

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

Miike

is_that_so wrote: »

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here.

Do you know what the identified VOC mutations actually do/change? Serious question, not being facetious. There's a reason why highly educated people are anxious about these VOCs, I wouldn't be so quick to down play them but equally I wouldn't sit trembling at my desk over them either. I would suggest being less polarizing and being a bit more measured.

Goldengirl

hmmm wrote: »

He might very well be right and I'm not qualified to judge, but that group of scientists seem to be worriers by nature. When you've the knowledge to know we're only one bad virus away from wiping out half of humanity it must weigh on you. The scientists and media in Ireland just seem to be extremely negative and downbeat, we're very different to the way most similar countries are reporting on this.

Florian Krammer on Twitter earlier (who seems to be on the more optimistic side) posted a pre-print of a study which showed that the "Indian variant" doesn't have much impact on vaccines - I remember you saying yesterday that Prof Mills was very worried about this variant. We've had Minks, and the UK, and the South African strains and so far nothing has been quite as bad as initial reports made it out to be.

I look for more balanced experts in general (and I'm a particular fan of Gottlieb), and they seem to be saying that while we will have some restrictions (e.g. wearing masks indoors) until 2022 we're largely back to normal in the second half of this year. That's not to say a new variant couldn't emerge which knocks everything back, but that's not the most likely thing to happen in the near future - and because it mutates at a slower speed than influenza we should be able to tweak vaccines in advance to deal with new mutations over the next few years.

I haven't posted by the way until today for a good while as was working so that was someone else.
I don't find him negative, he has been the best of our lot , Luke O'Neill a bit on the manic side I think , but again these are personal opinions .
I have read widely on this and while nobody knows which variant is going to cause trouble for the vaccines , the types of mutations on the b1.617 are both increasing transmission and also evading antibodies .
It is not known yet whether it is causing the deaths and high surge in India or whether it is just taking advantage of the increased circulation in a large unprotected population.
I am hoping that you are right in saying that it mutates more slowly and that we will have the necessary tweaks in vaccines to fight it , but it has mutated widely and relatively quickly over the last 15 months and especially to evade vaccination .

is_that_so

Miike wrote: »

Do you know what the identified VOC mutations actually do/change? Serious question, not being facetious. There's a reason why highly educated people are anxious about these VOCs, I wouldn't be so quick to down play them but equally I wouldn't sit trembling at my desk over them either. I would suggest being less polarizing and being a bit more measured.

None of them have escaped vaccines, that's all any of the rest of us care about. A permanent state of anxiety serves nobody, especially when there is no other evidence beyond warning people of that state of anxiety.

Goldengirl

is_that_so wrote: »

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here. The problem with Mills et al is that they are prognosticating and they have about as much idea as the rest of us.

You are talking about a professor in immunology in a major university here !
But maybe you are more qualified?

dominatinMC

Goldengirl wrote: »

More and more people of knowledge like Kingston Mills whom I gave as an example are saying that .
He is not extreme by anyone's standards so when he says something like that I take notice .
You can decide for yourself , of course .
And not talking about these severe restrictions by the way , but continuing measures like masks and social distancing, and smaller gatherings until variants of concern are known to be controlled or vaccinated against.
Don't shoot the messenger !

This is not the thread for this .

Fair enough, I have a lot of time for Mills, he is one of more balanced contributors out there, without an agenda like the zero-covid zealots. However, I was taken aback by his comments last night, such as citing that study on the SA variant and then scaremongering about the Indian variant.
Tbf, I don't think the media ask the right questions of these scientists either, their questions are usually loaded to elicit a certain response. I'd love to sit down and ask my own questions! My gut feeling is that they know variants will cause some evasion, but ultimately the vaccines will protect against severe illness and death - the question is, is that good enough? We know scientists will always look for a "more perfect" solution, but will politicians and society tolerate "good enough"? I think so.

is_that_so

Goldengirl wrote: »

You are talking about a professor in immunology in a major university here !
But maybe you are more qualified?

No, not a bit. I gave you some facts in that post. I just asked you for more evidence from these other voices. You're not obliged to give me any just as I'm not obliged to accept your claim. Best to leave it there I'd say.

Beanybabog

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

What do you mean all 4, I thought it was only AZ and J&J being offered to them?

irishlad.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=502588836

According to ECDC, 95% of 70-79 year olds have at least one dose, meaning there's about 16k left to be vaccinated.

31% of 60-69 year olds have at least one dose, leaving about 333k due a first dose.

ACitizenErased

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

It doesn't make sense at all in terms of supply. Just because it's certified for over 50s doesn't mean they'll be given it.

Miike

is_that_so wrote: »

None of them have escaped vaccines, that's all any of the rest of us care about. A permanent state of anxiety serves nobody, especially when there is no other evidence beyond warning people of that state of anxiety.

I completely agree about the state of anxiety, that's a media reporting problem.

But its important to recognise they are called variants of concern not variants of imminent danger/death/destruction. These are things which need to be monitored and stopped because they have the potential to undermine vaccination efforts.

Strazdas

Beanybabog wrote: »

What do you mean all 4, I thought it was only AZ and J&J being offered to them?

RTE Six One reports Donnelly as saying the over 50s will be offered all four vaccines (people had merely been assuming that they would only be offered AZ and J & J).

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

Just because they're all available to use doesn't mean they'll all be given.

That's up to the HSE when assigning the vaccine.

They've plenty of AZ coming in so that's all still going to be heading to the 60-69 group (because they're currently being vaccinated), J&J isn't in big enough numbers yet and Pfizer & Moderna are still being used by other cohorts.

Beanybabog

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just because they're all available to use doesn't mean they'll all be given.

That's up to the HSE when assigning the vaccine.

They've plenty of AZ coming in so that's all still going to be heading to the 60-69 group, J&J isn't in big enough numbers yet and Pfizer & Moderna are still being used by other cohorts.

Yes, we don't actually know what the vaccine percentage breakdown will be for the over 50s. But it also means there is no policy to specifically target the over 50s with J & J and AZ only and they can also receive the other two - in other words, they'll get whatever is available at that moment in time.

Miike

Beanybabog wrote: »

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

You will be offered what ever is going in the vaccination center you get an appointment in . There is no vaccine menus to choose from at the moment. If they refuse, they refuse.

At 60+ if they're refusing vaccination because of AZ risks, I would suggest they speak with their GP/Practice Nurse to be educated around those risks and risks of covid etc.

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, we don't actually know what the vaccine percentage breakdown will be for the over 50s. But it also means there is no policy to specifically target the over 50s with J & J and AZ only and they can also receive the other two - in other words, they'll get whatever is available at that moment in time.

Which the HSE will dictate based on current supply and forecasted supply.

Can't see much changing here to be perfectly honest, not in the short term anyway. The various cohorts have the supply assigned to them by the HSE.

PhilOssophy

Beanybabog wrote: »

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

This isn't going to be a pick from a menu job....they will be offered a vaccine. End of.

tayto lover

Okay so I’m vaccinated now.

When can I go for a few pints? I feel safe.
I’d also like to go and see my grandkids who I haven’t got to cuddle in over a year. I hope the youngest remember me too. This has gone on for too long.

stephenjmcd

Beanybabog wrote: »

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

Should still register either way. If not registered they aren't on the HSEs radar.

It's still not going to be a choice, a vaccine will be assigned

Miike

tayto lover wrote: »

Okay so I’m vaccinated now.

When can I go for a few pints? I feel safe.
I’d also like to go and see my grandkids who I haven’t got to cuddle in over a year. I hope the youngest remember me too. This has gone on for too long.

If the family of the people you're going to see are vaccinated also, you can go and see them. Make sure you actually fully vaccinated (depending on which vaccine, takes weeks after 2nd dose)

Goldengirl

Miike wrote: »

Do you know what the identified VOC mutations actually do/change? Serious question, not being facetious. There's a reason why highly educated people are anxious about these VOCs, I wouldn't be so quick to down play them but equally I wouldn't sit trembling at my desk over them either. I would suggest being less polarizing and being a bit more measured.

Yes Mike .
Thanks .

The subject of variant of concerns ( vocs) is going to follow us because it is as yet an unknown how long our vaccines will provide immunity against them
Variants of concern can infect those not vaccinated and undermine the effectivity of the vaccines , most of which have so far been shown both to prevent transmission and to reduce severe illness and death , but less so in the presence of some variants, and as yet little real world evidence to say otherwise .
Also infection of those vaccinated can occur to a lesser degree and this may cause spread among those with less effective immune systems and the immunocompromised, the very people we need to protect fully .

Nobody trembling on their keyboard here but if this is a vaccine thread the subject needs to be considered .

revelman

irishlad. wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=502588836

According to ECDC, 95% of 70-79 year olds have at least one dose, meaning there's about 16k left to be vaccinated.

31% of 60-69 year olds have at least one dose, leaving about 333k due a first dose.

You are assuming that everyone between 70 and 79 wants to be vaccinated. 95% is fantastic in any case.

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Should still register either way. If not registered they aren't on the HSEs radar.

It's still not going to be a choice, a vaccine will be assigned

If Pfizer is going to be used on them, they might as well wait until cohort 4 and 7 are done and the chance of getting Pfizer goes up. ATM, if they register and get an appointment, it's guaranteed to be AZ, that might be the case after 4 and 7 are done with.

Zipppy

titan18 wrote: »

If Pfizer is going to be used on them, they might as well wait until cohort 4 and 7 are done and the chance of getting Pfizer goes up. ATM, if they register and get an appointment, it's guaranteed to be AZ, that might be the case after 4 and 7 are done with.

Are cohorts 4 & & getting Pfizer?