Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Eod100

emrys wrote: »

I believe 450k per week is the proposed vaccine rate (subject to supply) for the month of June.

Ah good stuff. Here's hoping anyway.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Belgium's known vaccine deliveries for May (Ireland's population is 43%). Emergent Biosolutions in Maryland causing problems regarding the J&J deliveries because we are getting batches from there but they have current shut down production while the FDA carry out an investigation.

SJFly

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Agree. And as the others above have said, George Lee's mis-communication of the facts to suit RTE/George's agenda/misunderstanding/whatever is extremely dangerous. Portraying the AZ 4 week after dose 1 as a "sweetener" is not just inaccurate, it is factually incorrect. I heard the AZ 1st dose as being the "suite of armour", and the 2nd dose as "the last few nuts and bolts", but the second dose is only needed for that final (tiny) boost to the immunity. THIS HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED ONCE BY RTE.

I think I may have referred the 4 week gap to being considered vaccinated with AZ as a "sweetener ". It was a poor choice of word and I wasn't implying that the gaps weren't based on scientific evidence.
However, it's definitely a strong selling point for the vaccine which needs to be publicised more widely. Countless posters have have expressed reluctance to get AZ due to the 12 week gap. It will be really interesting to see what happens with vaccine passports. If they follow a similar format it will really improve the acceptability of that vaccine for many.

revelman

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Belgium's known vaccine deliveries for May (Ireland's population is 43%). Emergent Biosolutions in Maryland causing problems regarding the J&J deliveries because we are getting batches from there but they have current shut down production while the FDA carry out an investigation.

Thanks, this is very interesting. Without J&J, I can’t see how we will have 83% of the population vaccinated (with first dose) by end of June. But we get as far down as the 35-40 age range by end of June on these numbers.

munchkin_utd

emrys wrote: »

I believe 450k per week is the proposed vaccine rate (subject to supply) for the month of June.

that makes sense.

If you take the german expected supply of 6 million doses a week (sum of supply to GPs/ company doctors and vaccination centres) , Ireland should be proportionately then on 361k a week

The german number includes very little AZ and no J+J so the higher number in Ireland probably is Ireland factoring in those - so sounds like an accurate enough figure based on whats going on elsewhere

Eod100

revelman wrote: »

Thanks, this is very interesting. Without J&J, I can’t see how we will have 83% of the population vaccinated (with first dose) by end of June. But we get as far down as the 35-40 age range by end of June on these numbers.

I think the target was always ambitious with uncertainty around supply and delivery dates even more so. That said the age cohorts numbers may be a bit overestimated as some healthcare workers and people with health issues would already be vaccinated and included in their age cohorts so not need it by time their age comes. Maybe that's already factored in though.

revelman

Eod100 wrote: »

I think the target was always ambitious with uncertainty around supply and delivery dates even more so. That said the age cohorts numbers may be a bit overestimated as some healthcare workers and people with health issues would already be vaccinated and included in their age cohorts so not need it by time their age comes. Maybe that's already factored in though.

One of the unknowns is how many people will refuse a vaccination. In NI, 90% of those over 50 have accepted one. But in other countries, the further down you go to thirties and twenties, the refusal rate increases.

Eod100

revelman wrote: »

One of the unknowns is how many people will refuse a vaccination. In NI, 90% of those over 50 have accepted one. But in other countries, the further down you go to thirties and twenties, the refusal rate increases.

Yeah that's another factor. I guess anyone has has covid in last 6 months also only having to get 1 dose might free up some doses too.

ddarcy

SJFly wrote: »

I think I may have referred the 4 week gap to being considered vaccinated with AZ as a "sweetener ". It was a poor choice of word and I wasn't implying that the gaps weren't based on scientific evidence.
However, it's definitely a strong selling point for the vaccine which needs to be publicised more widely. Countless posters have have expressed reluctance to get AZ due to the 12 week gap. It will be really interesting to see what happens with vaccine passports. If they follow a similar format it will really improve the acceptability of that vaccine for many.

Unfortunately I don’t see this happening if vaccine passports come in (I think they will though). People will moan about this fact, and it is a fact, you’re not fully vaccinated until you have both doses. Ireland won’t be able to divert from the EMA guidance until they change it. The EMA say you need two doses, so a passport would require the same.

For those that will moan that you are “fully vaccinated”, the do no harm principle is therefore being violated if you need the second shot if you’re “fully vaccinated “ after the first. Not saying you don’t have immunity, you would as well with Pfizer and Moderna, but until things change no one outside of ireland will accept one jab as being fully vaccinated. This is the problem the government are having with their “sweetener”.

is_that_so

ddarcy wrote: »

Unfortunately I don’t see this happening if vaccine passports come in (I think they will though). People will moan about this fact, and it is a fact, you’re not fully vaccinated until you have both doses. Ireland won’t be able to divert from the EMA guidance until they change it. The EMA say you need two doses, so a passport would require the same.

For those that will moan that you are “fully vaccinated”, the do no harm principle is therefore being violated if you need the second shot if you’re “fully vaccinated “ after the first. Not saying you don’t have immunity, you would as well with Pfizer and Moderna, but until things change no one outside of ireland will accept one jab as being fully vaccinated. This is the problem the government are having with their “sweetener”.

Negative PCR will still apply as on option. The sweetener is a domestic idea and at present largely for the older cohort to meet their families.

stephenjmcd

ddarcy wrote: »

Unfortunately I don’t see this happening if vaccine passports come in (I think they will though). People will moan about this fact, and it is a fact, you’re not fully vaccinated until you have both doses. Ireland won’t be able to divert from the EMA guidance until they change it. The EMA say you need two doses, so a passport would require the same.

For those that will moan that you are “fully vaccinated”, the do no harm principle is therefore being violated if you need the second shot if you’re “fully vaccinated “ after the first. Not saying you don’t have immunity, you would as well with Pfizer and Moderna, but until things change no one outside of ireland will accept one jab as being fully vaccinated. This is the problem the government are having with their “sweetener”.

Lots of unknowns about all of this at this stage. That was asked at a recent press conference and it was said that indeed this discussion was now taking place at a European level as to what would be accepted. So there is no answer one way or the other here yet. With the dosing gap across Europe it may well become acceptable for 1 dose of AZ to allow you to travel.

Regardless, negative PCR is also an option.

ddarcy

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah that's another factor. I guess anyone has has covid in last 6 months also only having to get 1 dose might free up some doses too.

This is from the US. I don’t know if you should laugh or cry at it. But it’s a good read if you have a few minutes. Definitely the take up has lessened and those under 30 not getting it.

[url] https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-04-23/drop-covid-vaccine-demand-some-places-declining-doses?_amp=true[/url]

Godot.

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Belgium's known vaccine deliveries for May (Ireland's population is 43%). Emergent Biosolutions in Maryland causing problems regarding the J&J deliveries because we are getting batches from there but they have current shut down production while the FDA carry out an investigation.

It's one thing that batches from Emergent are on hold because we weren't expecting the bulk of the J&J vaccine to come in until the end of May anyway , but the fact that production has been halted is deeply concerning. The CEO of Emergent said that they will submit a reply to the FDA within days. Hopefully the FDA can evaluate their clean up job swiftly especially because the world is relying on that plant, but who could blame them if it takes time and they have to be thorough?

revelman

ddarcy wrote: »

This is from the US. I don’t know if you should laugh or cry at it. But it’s a good read if you have a few minutes. Definitely the take up has lessened and those under 30 not getting it.

[url] https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-04-23/drop-covid-vaccine-demand-some-places-declining-doses?_amp=true[/url]

It makes me want to cry. I posted a article from politico earlier about AZ vaccines being dumped by GPS in France. Incredible.

Strazdas

Godot. wrote: »

It's one thing that batches from Emergent are on hold because we weren't expecting the bulk of the J&J vaccine to come in until the end of May anyway , but the fact that production has been halted is deeply concerning. The CEO of Emergent said that they will submit a reply to the FDA within days. Hopefully the FDA can evaluate their clean up job swiftly especially because the world is relying on that plant, but who could blame them if it takes time and they have to be thorough?

I suppose the only positive is we weren't overly relying on J & J for the month of May, so it won't impact on us too much for the next four weeks or so anyway.

Amirani

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Paul Reid says a record 44k doses yesterday.

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1388485462310985731?s=19

That's about 1.15% of the adult population in a day I think? Good going.

SJFly

ddarcy wrote: »

Unfortunately I don’t see this happening if vaccine passports come in (I think they will though). People will moan about this fact, and it is a fact, you’re not fully vaccinated until you have both doses. Ireland won’t be able to divert from the EMA guidance until they change it. The EMA say you need two doses, so a passport would require the same.

For those that will moan that you are “fully vaccinated”, the do no harm principle is therefore being violated if you need the second shot if you’re “fully vaccinated “ after the first. Not saying you don’t have immunity, you would as well with Pfizer and Moderna, but until things change no one outside of ireland will accept one jab as being fully vaccinated. This is the problem the government are having with their “sweetener”.

It certainly will be interesting so see what happens with the vaccine passports. I wouldn't rule out a similar approach being taken though, particularly if there is strong evidence showing high levels of protection after 1 dose. In addition, the EU will be keen to kick-start the tourism industry as soon as it's safe to do so, and most countries will have a significant percentage of their population vaccinated with 1 AZ dose.
I'm not sure this needs to have a negative impact on uptake of 2nd doses either. You could, for example, be considered vaccinated between 4 and 12 weeks after 1 dose of AZ, but this lapses without a second dose.

is_that_so

Strazdas wrote: »

I suppose the only positive is we weren't overly relying on J & J for the month of May, so it won't impact on us too much for the next four weeks or so anyway.

With the over 50s signing up from Tuesday they wouldn't be in line for a shot till the 2nd half of the month anyway.

ddarcy

SJFly wrote: »

You could, for example, be considered vaccinated between 4 and 12 weeks after 1 dose of AZ, but this lapses without a second dose.

I pointed this out earlier as what the government should have said (although realistically it will have to be 18 weeks). Instead they have come out and said I’m considered fully vaccinated after 4 weeks, which was stupid, but needed do to hesitancy in my opinion. From this personally I wouldn’t be bothered getting the second dose, I clearly don’t need it as I’m fully vaccinated according to them…

podgeandrodge

bodhrandude wrote: »

I got my Pfizer shot yesterday at 4 PM at the GP I was told to go back for the second one on the 28th May at the same time. So I'd imagine that is the case with your mother, just show up at 3 PM.

So arrived at 2.30pm. She wasn't on any of their lists and they couldn't figure that out. But they had a table for people arriving where they couldn't tick them off, and after a few minutes did some type of registering and she got the jab.

Well run out in the Helix have to say.

Lumen

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Belgium's known vaccine deliveries for May (Ireland's population is 43%). Emergent Biosolutions in Maryland causing problems regarding the J&J deliveries because we are getting batches from there but they have current shut down production while the FDA carry out an investigation.

I make that an average of 300k/week for 9 weeks, scaled to our population.

Takes us to about 84 doses/100 people at the end of June, which is significantly short of the 100/100 where Israel opened up.

J&J is a massive loss.

charlie14

ddarcy wrote: »

I pointed this out earlier as what the government should have said (although realistically it will have to be 18 weeks). Instead they have come out and said I’m considered fully vaccinated after 4 weeks, which was stupid, but needed do to hesitancy in my opinion. From this personally I wouldn’t be bothered getting the second dose, I clearly don’t need it as I’m fully vaccinated according to them…

I really don`t get what the logic is.
You do not believe you are fully vaccinated after 4 weeks, (and rightly so), but personally you wouldn`t be bothered getting the second dose.
That sounds like cutting off your nose just to spite your face.

ddarcy

charlie14 wrote: »

I really don`t get what the logic is.
You do not believe you are fully vaccinated after 4 weeks, (and rightly so), but personally you wouldn`t be bothered getting the second dose.
That sounds like cutting off your nose just to spite your face.

I’m looking at it from a general perspective. If I’m told after one I’m fully done then more likely than not I wouldn’t get the second (especially if you had a bad reaction to the first). That’s basic human nature. Essentially you’ve met the bare minimum needed to be met, why go on. No one does this except the few. It Is very poor messaging from the government and well lead to problems.

Personally I’ll get the second jab when the time comes, but I’m just looking at this psychologically. The government phrasing is bad. Ideally they said you need both, but that would have created more issues and quite frankly they and EU politicians are at the heart of all the current problems with AZ and the bad publicity (not saying AZ isn’t at fault either btw).

iamwhoiam

I think most people are very clued in about AZ and understand the dose and gaps between doses . Most people are not stupid and aware of the reasons behind decisions .

Polar101

ddarcy wrote: »

Personally I’ll get the second jab when the time comes, but I’m just looking at this psychologically. The government phrasing is bad.

I guess it depends on whether people want to get a vaccine to protect themselves from a disease, or be able to fulfill a criteria set by the government. I'd hope that it's the first option for most people.

revelman

ddarcy wrote: »

I’m looking at it from a general perspective. If I’m told after one I’m fully done then more likely than not I wouldn’t get the second (especially if you had a bad reaction to the first). That’s basic human nature. Essentially you’ve met the bare minimum needed to be met, why go on. No one does this except the few. It Is very poor messaging from the government and well lead to problems.

Personally I’ll get the second jab when the time comes, but I’m just looking at this psychologically. The government phrasing is bad. Ideally they said you need both, but that would have created more issues and quite frankly they and EU politicians are at the heart of all the current problems with AZ and the bad publicity (not saying AZ isn’t at fault either btw).

The number of people getting “bad reactions” to AZ is minuscule. I have five members of my extended family between the ages of 35 and 69 who did not even have the slightest side effect after AZ. This should be of interest to you: https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccine-side-effects-not-as-bad-as-trials-2021-4?r=US&IR=T

charlie14

ddarcy wrote: »

I’m looking at it from a general perspective. If I’m told after one I’m fully done then more likely than not I wouldn’t get the second (especially if you had a bad reaction to the first). That’s basic human nature. Essentially you’ve met the bare minimum needed to be met, why go on. No one does this except the few. It Is very poor messaging from the government and well lead to problems.

Personally I’ll get the second jab when the time comes, but I’m just looking at this psychologically. The government phrasing is bad. Ideally they said you need both, but that would have created more issues and quite frankly they and EU politicians are at the heart of all the current problems with AZ and the bad publicity (not saying AZ isn’t at fault either btw).

I doubt there are many who while confuse the government message as somehow indicating they do not need a second dose to be fully vaccinated.
The appointment time for the second shot alone should show them that.

I really do not see people getting the first dose and refusing the second for any reasons other than having a sore arm from the first, or they could not be bothered. Either way, any government statement will have made no difference, and should they at a future date run into problems due to not getting the second shot, the only people to blame will be themselves.

Strazdas

revelman wrote: »

The number of people getting “bad reactions” to AZ is minuscule. I have five members of my extended family between the ages of 35 and 69 who did not even have the slightest side effect after AZ. This should be of interest to you: https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccine-side-effects-not-as-bad-as-trials-2021-4?r=US&IR=T

That's good to hear. We've heard lots of anecdotes online about people feeling under the weather after their first AZ dose, but according to that Lancet study, this might be greatly overstated.....it seems only about 20% of people had 'any' sort of side effect after receiving the vaccine (meaning 80% were fine and had no problems at all).

bodhrandude

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So arrived at 2.30pm. She wasn't on any of their lists and they couldn't figure that out. But they had a table for people arriving where they couldn't tick them off, and after a few minutes did some type of registering and she got the jab.

Well run out in the Helix have to say.

Glad to hear she got the jab.

ddarcy

Strazdas wrote: »

That's good to hear. We've heard lots of anecdotes online about people feeling under the weather after their first AZ dose, but according to that Lancet study, this might be greatly overstated.....it seems only about 20% of people had 'any' sort of side effect after receiving the vaccine (meaning 80% were fine and had no problems at all).

Yeah I got f*cling floored with it. I mean I had the sore arm and other minor things like chills, tiredness and a headache (which was kind of expected, usually get a sore arm with the flu jab) but that was nothing in comparison to the other symptoms.

To indicate how bad it was i filed an adverse event report on it and it’s officially now been logged by the HPRA as being serious after their investigation. In fairness the NIAC afterwards put their age restrictions in so I could be the straw that broke the back per se…