Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

revelman

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That means over 50s and under 50s being vaccinated at the same time. Also means under 50s (probably 40s) will be vaccinated quicker than over 50s as they have to wait for enough AZ and J&J to arrive.

400k AZ this month would make massive inroads into the over 50s so they won’t be waiting that long. And yes, I do think you need to start vaccinating under and over 50s at same time. Perhaps using 35/40 as minimum age to start.

snotboogie

Strazdas wrote: »

Why not all four vaccines for the over 50s though? It would mean flying through them and that the over 40s portal could open relatively quickly afterwards.

Because we will be facing vaccines supply issues for months. If we fly through the over 50's we will then have a limited supply for the under 50's as we can't use J&J and AZ anymore. The fastest way to do this would to only give AZ and J&J to the over 50's and only use Pfizer and Moderna on the under 50's while running the over 40's and over 50's concurrently.

Strazdas

timsey tiger wrote: »

Well somebody has to wait and we are all waiting for herd immunity. What is the strategy to minimise to overall wait time?

Personally, I'd be sceptical about the plan to open the age cohorts simultaneously, not unless the actual plan is to try and vaccinate everyone at the same time.

Opening the portal for some age groups but with no vaccine available to give then (hence they have to wait) would be a bit bonkers.

Frank Bullitt

The GF got AZ over here in Canada, the night of getting her vaccine was rough, lots of shovers and high temp with a massive headache.

She slept for most of the next day, and the day after that had some residual head pain but nothing crazy. Back to work today and feeling fine.

SJFly

I'm curious, would people in their 50s rather get their vaccine a couple of weeks earlier, if it means delaying the opening of the country by a couple of weeks. What we need is to reach herd immunity, and letting vaccines go to waste before the summer season will have consequences in terms of the spread of the virus and the amount we can open up.

timsey tiger

Strazdas wrote: »

Personally, I'd be sceptical about the plan to open the age cohorts simultaneously, not unless the actual plan is to try and vaccinate everyone at the same time.

Opening the portal for some age groups but with no vaccine available to give then (hence they have to wait) would be a bit bonkers.

Open it don't open it, you'll have to wait eitherway.

Valhallapt

Strazdas wrote: »

Why not all four vaccines for the over 50s though? It would mean flying through them and that the over 40s portal could open relatively quickly afterwards.

That would mean we run out of vaccines for the under 50s and would have to extend lockdown by about 6-8 weeks at a minimum. What use is the vaccine if we can’t go anywhere or do anything.

revelman

HSE recommendation is not to do age groups in parallel

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213524-coronavirus-figures-vaccines/

Economics101

Has the EMA cleared the J&J for all adult age groups? (For that matter has it also cleared the AZ?).

I assume that the EMA is (a) highly competent and (b) has at least as much information as anyone else. In that case why are the Irish authorities so restrictive? Do they have information which the EMA doesn't have? If not. then what is the basis of their decisions? I can see a role for national medicine approval bodies, but only in the larger contest of the EMA which can pool information and expertise.

Or is there something in the Irish public service which makes them risk-averse to an irrational degree? (i.e. where the vaccine risks are less than the non-vaccine risks)

stephenjmcd

revelman wrote: »

HSE plan

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213524-coronavirus-figures-vaccines/

Up to the department and cabinet now to go through what options have been laid out and tell the HSE which one to put into practice

Tyrone212

revelman wrote: »

HSE plan

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213524-coronavirus-figures-vaccines/

So what do with hundreds of thousands of vaccines in June that can't be used.

revelman

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Up to the department and cabinet now to go through what options have been laid out and tell the HSE which one to put into practice

“One possibility mooted is AstraZeneca being used for people over 50, while holding Pfizer vaccines in storage for those aged 40-49.”

I think there will be enough AZ this month for the bulk of over 50s but the idea that we should put Pfizer in storage seems like they are more worried about the optics of doing age groups in parallel.

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

Why not all four vaccines for the over 50s though? It would mean flying through them and that the over 40s portal could open relatively quickly afterwards.

I think it's been discussed plenty as to why not all four vaccines and the impact of such, you've been involved in the debates here.

It means your left with a large number of 1 dose jabs that effectively can't be used here and for every 1 that can't be used you need 2 to replace it.

So it has a big impact. Fly though one group and delay all the others by weeks.

Economics101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Up to the department and cabinet now to go through what options have been laid out and tell the HSE which one to put into practice

Maybe I should amend my recent post to say it's the politicians who are being irrationally risk-averse. Are the details of vaccine strategy decided at cabinet in other countries?

Stheno

revelman wrote: »

HSE plan

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213524-coronavirus-figures-vaccines/

Thats not a plan

One of those involved told RTÉ News that it may take a few days.

The aim is to maximise the rate of vaccine administration, while adhering to the age sequence, as set out.

The current situation is that for those aged 50-59, all four vaccines can be used.

For those aged 40-49, only Pfizer and Moderna can be used.

There are several modelling options being examined.

One possibility mooted is AstraZeneca being used for people over 50, while holding Pfizer vaccines in storage for those aged 40-49.

Another possibility would be to give the Pfizer vaccine to those aged 40-49, in parallel with the vaccination of those aged 50-59 with AstraZeneca.

Vaccines in storage? Didn't Paul Reid say last week he didn't want to see vaccines in storage?

stephenjmcd

revelman wrote: »

“One possibility mooted is AstraZeneca being used for people over 50, while holding Pfizer vaccines in storage for those aged 40-49.”

I think there will be enough AZ this month for the bulk of over 50s but the idea that we should put Pfizer in storage seems like they are more worried about the optics of doing age groups in parallel.

Possibly.

My own opinion based on supply hasn't changed. J&J & AZ for 50-69 age groups only unless medical advice says otherwise for certain people. Pfizer & Moderna for the rest. Its the only way to ensure we aren't left with a bulk of unusable vaccines in a few weeks time and having a vaccine programme that's needlessly delayed

IRISHSPORTSGUY

revelman wrote: »

HSE plan

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213524-coronavirus-figures-vaccines/

Probably the right call if the government have a memo that the situation at Emergent Biosolutions (major J&J partner) stopping production of vaccine ingredients is gonna cause havoc with the worldwide supply chain.

If they come good maybe we can alter things so over 40's can get J&J too. Age restrictions aren't set in stone... it was only a few weeks ago AZ was for 60+ but they changed it to 50.

Stheno

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Probably the right call if the government have a memo that the situation at Emergent Biosolutions (major J&J partner) stopping production of vaccine ingredients is gonna cause havoc with the worldwide supply chain.

If they come good maybe we can alter things so over 40's can get J&J too.

NIAC have said J and J is over 50s?

revelman

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Probably the right call if the government have a memo that the situation at Emergent Biosolutions (major J&J partner) stopping production of vaccine ingredients is gonna cause havoc with the worldwide supply chain.

If they come good maybe we can alter things so over 40's can get J&J too.

The South African Health Minister has said that he expects the Emergent issue resolved soon and supplies back on track by the middle of May.

SJFly

It would be great if the model outputs could be made public. If adhering strictly to the age based rollout saves lives and let's us open up quickly, go for it. Otherwise they need to have the balls to revise the plan and use the numbers to explain exactly why.

Lumen

Stheno wrote: »

Thats not a plan

Vaccines in storage? Didn't Paul Reid say last week he didn't want to see vaccines in storage?

That would be madness with MVCs running under capacity. It would be pure optics.

iamwhoiam

And still no mention of what they intend to do about Cohort 7 .

Valhallapt

Lumen wrote: »

That would be madness with MVCs running under capacity. It would be pure optics.

The country in lockdown, with Pfizer vaccines in the fridge as the government don’t want to be seen vaccinating the wrong people..... only Stephen Donnelly could get us into that mess

SusanC10

Lumen wrote: »

That would be madness with MVCs running under capacity. It would be pure optics.

Agreed. Keeping Vaccines in storage is daft. If not running Ages 40-49 in parallel, then give them to 50+.

Lumen

Running in parallel is the only sane choice.

Not only does it prevent wasted vaccines, it's difficult to criticise because no one group is first.

This is how they've gotten away with the cohort 4/7 balls up, I think.

revelman

SusanC10 wrote: »

Agreed. Keeping Vaccines in storage is daft. If not running Ages 40-49 in parallel, then give them to 50+.

Unless (and I’m trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here), they try to work through the over fifties over the next 3 weeks, accumulating at the same time enough Pfizer to open up the vaccine portal to everyone 30/35-50 towards the end of the month and hit the ground running with this group.

Russman

SJFly wrote: »

It would be great if the model outputs could be made public. If adhering strictly to the age based rollout saves lives and let's us open up quickly, go for it. Otherwise they need to have the balls to revise the plan and use the numbers to explain exactly why.

They’re scared sh1tless of the perception that the 50s are somehow being treated poorly, simple as imo.
If it’s true that there’s 400k AZ coming this month then that’s what they should give the 50s & 60s, for the simple reasons that the vaccine works and it can’t be given to the younger cohorts. Hardly rocket science.

Russman

How is it any different to the decision they made several weeks ago when it was decided that the 60-69 cohort would only be getting AZ in the MVCs ? Same principle surely ?

ixoy

revelman wrote: »

Unless (and I’m trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here), they try to work through the over fifties over the next 3 weeks, accumulating at the same time enough Pfizer to open up the vaccine portal to everyone 30/35-50 towards the end of the month and hit the ground running with this group.

I suspect that's their "plan". Burn through the AZ for the 50+ cohort. See how the J&J situation is looking. If it looks like J&J is going to arrive and the AZ deliveries seem solid, then open it up to 40+ in parallel at that point. If not given them the Moderna/Pfizer supplies and make others wait. They've been incredibly risk adverse so that's the "riskiest" thing they'll do.
The risks of course of delaying vaccinations elsewhere that we can see might be more palatable to the government than the perception of doing nothing / slowing down based on projections.

AdamD

Any word on 55-59 year olds being able to sign up to the website?