Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

SJFly

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're assuming J&J or AZ won't be delayed with deliveries during May or June. To prevent wasted doses of J&J and AZ, we won't see the 50-69 finish their first jab until well into July (last delivery in June won't be used until July)

I know for every 1 J&J jab, you need 2 Pfizer to replace it, but I'd be curious to see the weekly delivery schedule for Pfizer for July. There could be plenty of Pfizer to replace the J&J that wouldn't be used here.

I don't think over 50s waiting to be vaccinated in July sits well with anyone, or is what anyone is proposing. If bot AZ and J&J supplies meant they couldn't be done in a reasonable time frame then other supplies would have to be considered.

Beasty

Cork2021 wrote: »

Anyone think there will be 7-10 day gap between age cohorts?
Ie last Tuesday was 60 years tomorrow 59 year olds.. so let’s say the 20th May for 40-49 and say the 5th of June then for the 30-39? My hunch anyway

It depends on when the relevant vaccines are available and the speed of vaccinating the older people.

They've set out the timetable for registering the 50-59s. Each year will have something over 30k potential takers of the vaccine, but how many actually register? If they are getting through the 50-59s they need to have the 40-49s lined up

Having said that I registered last week but do not have any idea yet over when I will get my first jab of AZ. If we are getting 40k jabs done each day though and say there are 25k from each year getting the vaccine they will get through quite a bit more than 1 year per day, in which case they may need to be registering 2 years a day when they get to the 40 to 49s

Cork2021

Beasty wrote: »

It depends on when the relevant vaccines are available and the speed of vaccinating the older people.

They've set out the timetable for registering the 50-59s. Each year will have something over 30k potential takers of the vaccine, but how many actually register? If they are getting through the 50-59s they need to have the 40-49s lined up

Having said that I registered last week but do not have any idea yet over when I will get my first jab of AZ. If we are getting 40k jabs done each day though and say there are 25k from each year getting the vaccine they will get through quite a bit more than 1 year per day, in which case they may need to be registering 2 years a day when they get to the 40 to 49s

Yeah makes sense actually, supply increase speed of registration of age cohorts increases with it. I’m 32 so hopefully will be registering in the next 3/5 weeks!

heyjude

Where has the hard and fast rule that the AZ vaccine cannot be used on the under 50s come from ? A few weeks ago Niac advised that it shouldn't be used on the under 60s due to safety concerns, now its safe enough, but what changed in the meantime that other countries are unaware of, as they haven't changed their AZ vaccine use rules ? In Britain, they have only suggested alternative vaccines for the under 30s, while in Germany and Italy they won't use it on the under 60s, in France they won't use it on the under 55s, while Denmark and several of the Scandinavian countries have stopped using it at all and many other countries have no age restrictions. If we won't use it on the under 50s, then it is a choice and like the previous recommendation on limiting its use to the over 60s, it can be changed if they want, so no more hiding behind 'the rules'.

The recent switch from over 60s to over 50s probably has as much to do with the vaccine delivery situation and progressing the vaccine programme, as it has to do with concerns about vaccine safety. The point is, its use among the 50-59 age group is just as safe or dangerous, as it was when its use was limited to the over 60s due to safety concerns, so other factors must have forced the goalposts to be moved or other countries would have relaxed their restrictions on its use too.

But with France,Germany,Italy and other EU countries employing much higher age limits for using the AZ vaccine or halting its use altogether, how are their vaccination programmes able to cope with these limitations on AZ vaccine use, when they are getting similar population related supplies of each of the vaccines as ourselves, while we are being told that without using the AZ vaccine on the over 50s, our rollout could be severely delayed ?

revelman

Cork2021 wrote: »

Yeah makes sense actually, supply increase speed of registration of age cohorts increases with it. I’m 32 so hopefully will be registering in the next 3/5 weeks!

I don’t want to be pessimistic but I’d be very surprised if MVCs open up for under 35 year olds before the end of June but I’m keeping my fingers crossed for you!

Ficheall

Cork2021 wrote: »

Yeah makes sense actually, supply increase speed of registration of age cohorts increases with it. I’m 32 so hopefully will be registering in the next 3/5 weeks!

I'm 34 and hoping to get my first vaccine before September... :pac:

revelman

heyjude wrote: »

Where has the hard and fast rule that the AZ vaccine cannot be used on the under 50s come from ? A few weeks ago Niac advised that it shouldn't be used on the under 60s due to safety concerns, now its safe enough, but what changed in the meantime that other countries are unaware of, as they haven't changed their AZ vaccine use rules ? In Britain, they have only suggested alternative vaccines for the under 30s, while in Germany and Italy they won't use it on the under 60s, in France they won't use it on the under 55s, while Denmark and several of the Scandinavian countries have stopped using it at all and many other countries have no age restrictions. If we won't use it on the under 50s, then it is a choice and like the previous recommendation on limiting its use to the over 60s, it can be changed if they want, so no more hiding behind 'the rules'.

The recent switch from over 60s to over 50s probably has as much to do with the vaccine delivery situation and progressing the vaccine programme, as it has to do with concerns about vaccine safety. The point is, its use among the 50-59 age group is just as safe or dangerous, as it was when its use was limited to the over 60s due to safety concerns, so other factors must have forced the goalposts to be moved or other countries would have relaxed their restrictions on its use too.

But with France,Germany,Italy and other EU countries employing much higher age limits for using the AZ vaccine or halting its use altogether, how are their vaccination programmes able to cope with these limitations on AZ vaccine use, when they are getting similar population related supplies of each of the vaccines as ourselves, while we are being told that without using the AZ vaccine on the over 50s, our rollout could be severely delayed ?

I am afraid you are wrong. Bar the hyper-cautious Scandinavian countries, major countries are going the other way. Germany now allows AZ for everyone under 60 as long as they have spoken to their GP. Italy is now about to make AZ available to everyone under 60. There is a ridiculous amount of misinformation about AZ and J&J.

delly

Remember as well that as you move down the age groups, you're going to have more population in that age group, and less people who may already be vaccinated due to being in an at risk cohort. In other words, the pace of one 10 year group will not match another, even before you mention supply issues.

Beasty

heyjude wrote: »

Where has the hard and fast rule that the AZ vaccine cannot be used on the under 50s come from ? A few weeks ago Niac advised that it shouldn't be used on the under 60s due to safety concerns, now its safe enough, but what changed in the meantime that other countries are unaware of, as they haven't changed their AZ vaccine use rules ? In Britain, they have only suggested alternative vaccines for the under 30s, while in Germany and Italy they won't use it on the under 60s, in France they won't use it on the under 55s, while Denmark and several of the Scandinavian countries have stopped using it at all and many other countries have no age restrictions. If we won't use it on the under 50s, then it is a choice and like the previous recommendation on limiting its use to the over 60s, it can be changed if they want, so no more hiding behind 'the rules'.

The recent switch from over 60s to over 50s probably has as much to do with the vaccine delivery situation and progressing the vaccine programme, as it has to do with concerns about vaccine safety. The point is, its use among the 50-59 age group is just as safe or dangerous, as it was when its use was limited to the over 60s due to safety concerns, so other factors must have forced the goalposts to be moved or other countries would have relaxed their restrictions on its use too.

But with France,Germany,Italy and other EU countries employing much higher age limits for using the AZ vaccine or halting its use altogether, how are their vaccination programmes able to cope with these limitations on AZ vaccine use, when they are getting similar population related supplies of each of the vaccines as ourselves, while we are being told that without using the AZ vaccine on the over 50s, our rollout could be severely delayed ?

It's not a hard and fast rule. The view was it was a convenient age to set given expected supplies of the vaccines and numbers in that age group. J&J scuppered that when their vaccine had similar issues. Dropping the age to 50 again made it better to manage vaccine supplies

The EMA have opined it's suitable for all age groups.

Economics101

heyjude wrote: »

Where has the hard and fast rule that the AZ vaccine cannot be used on the under 50s come from ?

It certainly doesn't come from the EMA. What does NIAC know (based on evidence) that the EMA doesn't know?

Cork2021

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm 34 and hoping to get my first vaccine before September... :pac:

Now that’s the worst case scenario surely? Me being positive I see me getting the jab before end of June, pessimistic me says middle to late July!

Valhallapt

heyjude wrote: »

But with France,Germany,Italy and other EU countries employing much higher age limits for using the AZ vaccine or halting its use altogether, how are their vaccination programmes able to cope with these limitations on AZ vaccine use, when they are getting similar population related supplies of each of the vaccines as ourselves, while we are being told that without using the AZ vaccine on the over 50s, our rollout could be severely delayed ?

That’s not how it works. EU bulk purchased, but countries chose what percentage of each vaccine they wanted. Eastern Europe went for proportionally more AZ than other parts, Germans went with proportionally more Pfizer.

Beasty

The other issue with AZ (but certainly not J&J) is the 12 or 16 week wait for the 2nd dose. Those of us who get AZ will probably be among the last to get our 2nd doses and be "fully vaccinated" (I'm happy enough with the protection offered by the first dose)

One of the things I'm unclear about is how long the various vaccines will be effective. Would, for example, getting the 2nd AZ jab 16 weeks later mean you don't need a booster for a similarly extended period (versus say J&J)

delly

But isn't the strength of the first AZ jab enough to be classified as vaccinated, hence the reason for the delay? Unless you mean it on a technical point.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

revelman wrote: »

The South African Health Minister has said that he expects the Emergent issue resolved soon and supplies back on track by the middle of May.

Hope so because Europe is getting ingredients/batches from Emergent.

2012paddy2012

delly wrote: »

But isn't the strength of the first AZ jab enough to be classified as vaccinated, hence the reason for the delay? Unless you mean it on a technical point.

Anyone know of you get covid , and get over it without any major effects , do you just need one jab? Have you some immunity ?

Wolf359f

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Hope so because Europe is getting ingredients/batches from Emergent.

Was it not just fill & finish?

odyssey06

2012paddy2012 wrote: »

Anyone know of you get covid , and get over it without any major effects , do you just need one jab? Have you some immunity ?

Those under the age of 50 who have had a Covid-19 infection in the previous six months and are not immunocompromised will be considered “fully vaccinated” after a single dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/under-50s-with-prior-covid-infection-to-get-single-dose-of-vaccines-1118453.html

Beasty

delly wrote: »

But isn't the strength of the first AZ jab enough to be classified as vaccinated, hence the reason for the delay? Unless you mean it on a technical point.

I don't know, for example, how this would work for a vaccine passport. Don't all of the 2 dose vaccines claim something like 80% effectiveness after the first, with significantly reduced potential symptoms?

Eire Go Brach

Getting vaccinated Wednesday. Got a text yesterday. Quite surprised to be honest. Seen as it’s Pfizer I jumped at it. I’m considered high risk apparently. Had an arrhythmia 2 years ago. Technically I’m still an outpatient. With covid, appointments been pushed back to get the all clear. I’m 43. Run 3 times a week.

Gf the same. She is 45. Mild Asthma and high blood pressure. High risk as well? By all accounts both of us consider ourselves healthy.

Rebelbrowser

delly wrote: »

Remember as well that as you move down the age groups, you're going to have more population in that age group, and less people who may already be vaccinated due to being in an at risk cohort. In other words, the pace of one 10 year group will not match another, even before you mention supply issues.

Not sure the first bit is right. To my surprise I saw one stat showing the largest 5 year cohort was 40 to 45. All down to baby booms etc I suppose

Beasty

Cork2021 wrote: »

Me being positive I see me getting the jab before end of June, pessimistic me says middle to late July!

If you're positive you don't need a jab - should already have the antibodies.....

:pac:

gozunda

revelman wrote: »

I think Pfizer should go mostly to under 50s but should make up any shortfall in the MVCs in the over 50s. The bulk of vaccines to the over 50s should be AZ and J&J.

Why?

Micky 32

Roll on May 13th. It will be like ordering an iphone on pre order day :pac::pac:

plodder

heyjude wrote: »

Where has the hard and fast rule that the AZ vaccine cannot be used on the under 50s come from ?

RTE apparently. NIAC say all approved vaccines can be used for all adults.

gozunda

Lumen wrote: »

It's only registration. The HSE still decide who gets appointments and in which order, right?

They could let everyone in the country register and it wouldn't bias the rollout.

This from the HSE

We're inviting people aged 59 to register from Tuesday 4 May.

If you are aged:

58 – register on Wednesday 5 May, or any time after
57 – register on Thursday 6 May, or any time after
56 – register on Friday 7 May, or any time after
55 – register on Saturday 8 May, or any time after

People aged 50 to 54 will be invited to register from Sunday 9 May.

We’re asking people to register on specific days to help us manage the demand. This will make it easier for everyone to register.

We will be assigning appointments by age so it doesn’t matter how quickly you register. You won't get your vaccine any sooner if you register earlier.

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/rollout/

Cork2021

Beasty wrote: »

If you're positive you don't need a jab - should already have the antibodies.....

:pac:

If only haha

Happydays2020

plodder wrote: »

RTE apparently. NIAC say all approved vaccines can be used for all adults.

https://rcpi-live-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/NIAC-Recommendations-re-COVID-19-Vaccination-29.04.2021update-1.pdf

LimerickGray

What has happened with cohort 4 or 7. I’m 44 in cohort 4. I had an appointment for AZ 2 weeks ago but it was cancelled. I’ve not heard anything from mvc now since.
I spoke to consultant and he says it’s 1 way traffic with him and vax centre. He gets an auto mail every time he registers a patient in either cohort.
Incidentally my GP sent me mass mail email last Thursday to say they have been asked by hse to forward a list of high/very high (pardon my laughing). He seems to have registered me too.
What do I do? I emailed hselive and got an irreverent reply. Is there somewhere to check one’s status? It’s a pity that it’s being left to consultant or hospital or gp as they have no visibility of what happens after a recommendation is made.

hmmm

Beasty wrote: »

One of the things I'm unclear about is how long the various vaccines will be effective. Would, for example, getting the 2nd AZ jab 16 weeks later mean you don't need a booster for a similarly extended period (versus say J&J)

I don't think we have much in the way of long-term data. There's been some recent papers on both Covid infections and Moderna which appears to show reasonably long-lived protection is likely (years).
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2103916
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.27.21256207v1

I seem to remember (and can't find it) a recent study showed that AZ may offer better long-term protection than the mRNA vaccines.