Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

iamwhoiam

Roger_007 wrote: »

Is it just me, or did anyone else see an illustration of a mass hanging when the saw that first?

It reminded me of a scene from The Handmaids Tale

Beasty

PTH2009 wrote: »

Are we looking at July for a min first dose for 34-26 age groups ?

Would not be surprised if everyone currently eligible gets their first jabs by the end of June, possibly sooner

I suspect they are getting through more than 1 year every day now (on average) and deliveries should continue ramping up. I think they will be into the 40s in a couple of weeks

Strazdas

PTH2009 wrote: »

Are we looking at July for a min first dose for 34-26 age groups ?

I think they would be expecting faster than that. There was only a three week gap between the 60s and 50s on the portal and they think June will see a big surge in deliveries.

freshpopcorn

I'm sure this has being posted before and could be researched easy but have we any states on the uptake?

revelman

Strazdas wrote: »

I think they would be expecting faster than that. There was only a three week gap between the 60s and 50s on the portal and they think June will see a big surge in deliveries.

Yes but you also have to take into account that the number of people in each age group also increases significantly as you go down. On top of that there are fewer younger people who will have had conditions that will put them in Cohort 4 so fewer are already vaccinated. I’d be very surprised if they were able to vaccinate people in their 20s in June. July is more realistic. Early thirties might just scape end of June.

blackcard

Strazdas wrote: »

I think they would be expecting faster than that. There was only a three week gap between the 60s and 50s on the portal and they think June will see a big surge in deliveries.

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

Russman

Beasty wrote: »

I suspect they are getting through more than 1 year every day now (on average) and deliveries should continue ramping up. I think they will be into the 40s in a couple of weeks

Yeah I think this is on the money. It wouldn’t surprise me if there was only a day or two (if anything) between the 50s registering and the 40s starting.

Wolf359f

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

Well most of the 50-69 group should be J&J or AZ for the most part, so that won't effect the roll out until their second dose of AZ being due into July.
If we're planning on 250k a week now and 450k a week going into June, than that extra excess will help with the second doses. But it's certainly a more complex calculation. It's very easy to get caught up in the first doses and forget about the second doses due in 4 weeks time.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/13911432691705610293

JoChervil

Are all vaccination centres already open? Or they are planning later openings?

Strazdas

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

Valhallapt

Strazdas wrote: »

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

I’m under 40 and was hoping to get it. One and done, then on me holidays

SJFly

Strazdas wrote: »

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

Interesting. Do they delay the over 45s for the big delivery in June? That didn't go down well with the over 50s, can't imagine it would go down much better with the over 45s, although the delay would be shorter. I wonder what the latest schedule is for deliveries, but some MVCs could be doing that age group quite soon. I still think an opt in is a better option. The last data I saw still has men at extremely low risk.

Qrt

I’m hoping to get the see the fam in England in September, hopefully I’ll be done and dusted then. I’m literally in the last cohort though, so we’ll see.

trellheim

New daily high 6 May 46374

Population sizes is approx 60-70k per age this means at this rate we are chewing through an age approx every 2 days so it should only take 20 days or less to get the 50-60s done

Wolf359f

trellheim wrote: »

New daily high 6 May 46374

Population sizes is approx 60-70k per age this means at this rate we are chewing through an age approx every 2 days so it should only take 20 days or less to get the 50-60s done

There's still 200k of the 60-70 to do still?
Let's not forget all the second doses that need doing, about 400k excluding AZ second doses.

I haven't seen a proper projection of what's needed (second dose wise) up to the end of June.

Charles Babbage

If my understanding is correct, in June there should be 150,000 more Pfizer, 50,000 more Moderna, and hopefully Curevac, 30-40,000 doses.
Hopefully they get a good run at it, even if the first 10 days in July are need to wrap up. We could declare 12 July as end of Covid day and have big marches.

Wolf359f

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If my understanding is correct, in June there should be 150,000 more Pfizer, 50,000 more Moderna, and hopefully Curevac, 30-40,000 doses.
Hopefully they get a good run at it, even if the first 10 days in July are need to wrap up. We could declare 12 July as end of Covid day and have big marches.

People need to realize the target was 80% of adults offered a vaccine by the end of June. The last week of June starts on the 28th, with Pfizer delivering approx 332k in that week. It's impossible for them to be delivered and administered within 3 days (assuming they are delivered on the 28th). So people will get a date in July. That will still be within the Government target.

I think people are expecting 80% of adults to have their first dose by the end of June and will see it as a failure etc...
I still think 80% offered a jab within 2 weeks from the end of June is tight.
But your date of 12 July is more realistic, based on people actually getting jabbed.

mightyreds

Wolf359f wrote: »

People need to realize the target was 80% of adults offered a vaccine by the end of June. The last week of June starts on the 28th, with Pfizer delivering approx 332k in that week. It's impossible for them to be delivered and administered within 3 days (assuming they are delivered on the 28th). So people will get a date in July. That will still be within the Government target.

I think people are expecting 80% of adults to have their first dose by the end of June and will see it as a failure etc...
I still think 80% offered a jab within 2 weeks from the end of June is tight.
But your date of 12 July is more realistic, based on people actually getting jabbed.

I've a sneaking suspicion that offered a jab is offered to register on the portal not actually get a jab so they will meet targets but more like July for actual jabs.

Wolf359f

mightyreds wrote: »

I've a sneaking suspicion that offered a jab is offered to register on the portal not actually get a jab so they will meet targets but more like July for actual jabs.

Kinda, they could open all age groups to register tomorrow, thus they would exceed the target. People are not that dumb though and would see through it. Like wise, offering everyone tomorrow a date in August, would also be seen through.
The vaccination program is being watched very closely and I don't think they would get away with those usual political tricks. Also, I think this is mainly HSE lead, so they won't play political games.

But realistically, if the government target remains on track, it will be July when the last ~15% (total guess with 15%) of that 80% are jabbed

Lumen

Wolf359f wrote: »

People need to realize the target was 80% of adults offered a vaccine by the end of June.

Nope. That was Leo backsliding later.

"What that means in practical terms is that by the end of April up to 40% of people over the age of 18 years of age will have had their first dose, by the end of May up to 64% will have had their first dose, and by the end of June up to 82% of adults who can be vaccinated will have received at least one dose, and 55-60% will be fully vaccinated."
Michael Martin, 23 Feb 2021

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-vaccine-ramp-up-to-see-80-of-adults-get-dose-by-june-martin-1.4493373

..about 3/4 of the way through the video

This was a carefully scripted televised address.

You can argue that "up to" gave wiggle room but this "offered" thing came later.

Lumen

Incidentally, the end of April number was 1.13m first doses (29%) against the 40% target of around 1.56m.

JTMan

Strazdas wrote: »

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

The article is here. We will find out this week if NIAC reduce the age limit to 40+ or 45+ with J&J.

- HSE chief executive, sought greater flexibility in using the more than 400,000 single-shot J&J vaccines which are due for delivery in June.
- NIAC will issue advice this week on whether the limit can be reduced to include over-45s, or even everyone aged in their forties.
- No change proposed to age limits for AZ.

JTMan

Interesting interview with Uğur Şahin, who founded BioNTech in the WSJ here (paywall).

- Those who were given AZ might need to be given a mRNA vaccine at a later date. Mixing and matching of different types of vaccines, including combining shots based on messenger RNA technology with the so-called viral vector vaccines like that of AstraZeneca, could be necessary to end the pandemic.
- China might start using Pfizer-BioNTech. BioNTech is teaming up with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. It has already received a government order of 100 million doses pending authorization by China’s regulators. Order might be increased. Approval likely in June. Vaccine might be mixed and matched with local vaccines and given to elderly Chinese population.
- Global herd-immunity expected by mid-2022.

is_that_so

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

Lumen

is_that_so wrote: »

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

km79

Strazdas wrote: »

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

Ah ffs
If they are going to reduce it surely it will be to include all 40+

revelman

Lumen wrote: »

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

Thanks, this is interesting. As I see it, there is no way that target will be met by end of June. If we are lucky, age 35 plus will have been offered an appointment by the end of June.

is_that_so

Lumen wrote: »

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

They haven't said vaccinated for quite some time, the message is offered a vaccine by the end of June so that means an appointment.

eoinbn

Lumen wrote: »

Nope. That was Leo backsliding later.

"What that means in practical terms is that by the end of April up to 40% of people over the age of 18 years of age will have had their first dose, by the end of May up to 64% will have had their first dose, and by the end of June up to 82% of adults who can be vaccinated will have received at least one dose, and 55-60% will be fully vaccinated."
Michael Martin, 23 Feb 2021

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-vaccine-ramp-up-to-see-80-of-adults-get-dose-by-june-martin-1.4493373

..about 3/4 of the way through the video

This was a carefully scripted televised address.

You can argue that "up to" gave wiggle room but this "offered" thing came later.

The government should not be giving precise figures as most of it is out of their control. I said it at the time, that that speech would haunt them.
Since then AZ and J&J have both had age restrictions. To counteract some of that, we have gotten extra doses of Pfizer. We have seen multiple issues at the J&J site in Baltimore. We have also seen that doses delivered is not doses in arms.

Expect a few more curve balls between now and the end of June.