Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Call me Al

JTMan wrote: »

The article is here. We will find out this week if NIAC reduce the age limit to 40+ or 45+ with J&J.

- HSE chief executive, sought greater flexibility in using the more than 400,000 single-shot J&J vaccines which are due for delivery in June.
- NIAC will issue advice this week on whether the limit can be reduced to include over-45s, or even everyone aged in their forties.
- No change proposed to age limits for AZ.

But if supply is the constraint at the moment what difference will this make right now.
How can we incorporate them into our current rollout plans (even 45+) if the supply just isn't there?
I can't see this change of approach being of any benefit until the J&J volumes ramp up significantly.

Lumen

is_that_so wrote: »

They haven't said vaccinated for quite some time, the message is offered a vaccine by the end of June so that means an appointment.

It doesn't necessarily mean that. It could simply mean that they aren't expecting everyone to accept vaccination. Martin's statement was that people would be vaccinated, which obviously is a dumb thing to say considering that it requires consent.

If they meant "offered an appointment" why wouldn't they say that? Presumably because they want to maintain the wiggle room to say that opening the registration system to all age groups consituted an offer.

In any case, I'm simply drawing attention to what was said.

Surely if you register for a vacvine,and are offered an appointment,then you're not terribly vaccine hesitant

According to George Lee,if you are in cohort 7,your gp can order a vaccine for you
So don't accept the all our vaccines are allocated line

Lumen

eoinbn wrote: »

The government should not be giving precise figures as most of it is out of their control. I said it at the time, that that speech would haunt them.

I don't think it will. Nobody cares about projects being delivered late once they're delivered.

It might give the opposition some ammunition but is anyone listening?

February was a dark month, literally and figuratively. It made sense for Martin to make specific commitments in order to hold the line on restrictions at a time when the hospitals were still dealing with the Christmas Covid hangover.

Come July we'll be moaning about something else in our lives. Sunburn, hopefully.

is_that_so

Lumen wrote: »

It doesn't necessarily mean that. It could simply mean that they aren't expecting everyone to accept vaccination. Martin's statement was that people would be vaccinated, which obviously is a dumb thing to say considering that it requires consent.

If they meant "offered an appointment" why wouldn't they say that? Presumably because they want to maintain the wiggle room to say that opening the registration system to all age groups consituted an offer.

In any case, I'm simply drawing attention to what was said.

It's really less about the foolishness of the claims/promises than the PR value of setting a point where the end of this is in sight. It's also a determination to quell that slow rollout narrative. Only pedants and bored media types will hold it against them if we're not quite at that point in June!

Happydays2020

They should probably make JJ an opt-in for all age groups when there is supply in June. Let people decide for themselves.

I should add that they need to enthusiastically embrace the Travel Cert app as that will assist in encouraging people to vaccinate.

Beanybabog

Does anyone know what our % uptake is? Not how many we’ve done in the cohorts as we are still constrained by supply, but can we estimate by the numbers by the end of this what % of people will have willingly taken the vaccine? I was reading an article about the USA not being able to reach herd immunity, although I imagine if you live in a place that hasn’t been as affected by lockdowns as we have you might not be as bothered. Boards may not be representative of the population as a whole but most people here seem to be dying to get it. Even the people I know who were somewhat hesitant (re AstraZeneca mainly) have all still decided to go ahead and get it. Are we looking like we’ll have enough vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

Gile_na_gile

Finally broke 50k ceiling 52,278 doses
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-07-may-2021.pdf

Headline figure from reddit but adds to 49,365 doses in link.

Lumen

Beanybabog wrote: »

Does anyone know what our % uptake is? Not how many we’ve done in the cohorts as we are still constrained by reply, but can we estimate by the numbers by the end of this what % of people will have willingly taken the vaccine? I was reading an article about the USA not being able to reach herd immunity, although I imagine if you live in a place that hasn’t been as effected by lockdowns as we have you might not be as bothered. Boards may not be representative of the population as a whole but most people here seem to be dying to get it. Even the people I know who were somewhat hesitant (re AstraZeneca mainly) have all still decided to go ahead and get it. Are we looking like we’ll have enough vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

Dunno but the last survey I read had 85% of surveyed willing to be vaccinated, and climbing, with 6% (and falling) indicating refusal, and a bias towards hesitancy amongst the young.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/about-85-of-people-willing-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-survey-finds-1.4547738

Since younger people tend to be less infectious their hesitancy has a smaller effect on herd immunity. I don't think this is going to be a problem.

Beasty

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

is_that_so wrote: »

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

If they are mainly working through the 60-69 cohort currently their second doses will not be for another 3-4 months, unless they get one of the others rather than AZ

I'm at the bottom end of that age grouping and get my first dose on Tuesday. Admittedly that is in one of the regional centres, and I'm not sure how reflective of the country as a whole that is. However many in the 50-59 group will be getting their first dose over the next week or so.

eoinbn

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

One thing we don't know is how many Pfizer doses we are getting on July. It could potentially be half of what we get in June, maybe less. If that is the case we would have to hold back doses in June for second doses in July. Hopefully the EU has requested the Q3 delivers to be front loaded.

duffman13

eoinbn wrote: »

One thing we don't know is how many Pfizer doses we are getting on July. It could potentially be half of what we get in June, maybe less. If that is the case we would have to hold back doses in June for second doses in July. Hopefully the EU has requested the Q3 delivers to be front loaded.

There will be no front loading but nor will there be a drastic fall off in supply. It will be incremental increases like we've seen so far from Moderna and particularly Pfizer. The problem is that from July, we potentially are only using the mRNA vaccines which mean the 100,000 AZ and 100,000 J&J a week that were (planned on) being used in June are now gone however we should have increased supply of Moderna, Pfizer and hopefully Curevac.

eoinbn

duffman13 wrote: »

There will be no front loading but nor will there be a drastic fall off in supply. It will be incremental increases like we've seen so far from Moderna and particularly Pfizer. The problem is that from July, we potentially are only using the mRNA vaccines which mean the 100,000 AZ and 100,000 J&J a week that were (planned on) being used in June are now gone however we should have increased supply of Moderna, Pfizer and hopefully Curevac.

In June we are due to get about 300k doses a week of Pfizer - that is if you to by the the Belgium figures which I have my doubts about. If that continued in Q3 the EU would get 429m doses in that quarter. That isn't happening.
I believe we will get 190m in Q3 and 90m in Q4. Even if we got all the remaining doses(280m) in Q3 it would only equate to 230k doses a week which will be less than our June delivers.

So there will be a large drop in July, or we need to front load the Q3 deliveries. The holding back might not really required as the last delivery in June will likely we largely used for second doses in July. It just means we get very little first doses done in July - mostly Moderna if they have ramped up by then.

Van.Bosch

Approx 53,000 vaccines done on Friday - a new record. That’s impressive.

KrustyUCC

How are we looking for the 220,000 to 240,000 target for this week?

Should hopefully be at the upper end of the range

Happydays2020

What is the commitment from Moderna and when? I doubt we will see Curevac until July.

Wolf359f

KrustyUCC wrote: »

How are we looking for the 220,000 to 240,000 target for this week?

Should hopefully be at the upper end of the range

194k up to Friday, last sat & sun we done 32k. So if we match last weekend, well land at about 226k.

Micky 32

A bit more info coming from the Seychelles. It seems that 80% of the infections were unvaccinated. Good news if true.

https://twitter.com/thatryanchap/status/1391341441583140868?s=21

Eod100

Great to see https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1391344249342418945?s=19

irishlad.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=1421952725

Great numbers, encouraging for the future months!

20k dose 1's in cohort 5
16k dose 1's in cohort 4
13k dose 2's in cohort 3

Cohort 4 now looks like it will balloon past the original 250k number. This is due to people from cohort 7 being brought in as cohort 4, as highlighted by some on here.

KrustyUCC

Wolf359f wrote: »

194k up to Friday, last sat & sun we done 32k. So if we match last weekend, well land at about 226k.

Cool thanks

Be interesting to see the updated J&J used figures this week

Wolf359f

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Cool thanks

Be interesting to see the updated J&J used figures this week

There was only 81 J&J given out the first day (must have squeezed out an extra dose from a vial?)
56 on the second day. Maybe just 2 trial run locations?
You'd want to see that speed up as the whole point of J&J is you bring the vaccine to the people, so less organising needed.

iguana

Micky 32 wrote: »

A bit more info coming from the Seychelles. It seems that 80% of the infections were unvaccinated. Good news if true.

https://twitter.com/thatryanchap/status/1391341441583140868?s=21

I'm really interested to see what proportion of the 20% were vaccinated with Sinopharm and what with AZ. If it's significantly over 60% with Sinopharm, then that's very encouraging for those who have gotten/are due to get AZ.

KrustyUCC

Very slow figures seeing as we've had 14,000 one dose J&J in stock since the middle of April

Like you say maybe a trial

Still that's something that needs a big ramp up as it's one dose fully vaccinated

Wolf359f

iguana wrote: »

I'm really interested to see what proportion of the 20% were vaccinated with Sinopharm and what with AZ. If it's significantly over 60% with Sinopharm, then that's very encouraging for those who have gotten/are due to get AZ.

Considering their high % vaccinated and low population, it's certainly ripping through the rest of the population fast. I know AZ has shown to reduce transmission, has Sinopharm shown the same? Yes you would expect some people to still catch covid after vaccination, but it's the speed of it spreading, it's like the vaccinations didn't slow or prevent it at all. Unlike Israel, they hit 60% and cases dropped like a brick.

Lucas Hood

Hopefully yesterday was a big day for vaccines.

Need 45317 across Saturday & Sunday to hit 240k for the week.

revelman

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Hopefully yesterday was a big day for vaccines.

Need 45317 across Saturday & Sunday to hit 240k for the week.

Given Friday’s success, we reached 34% of the adult population about two days sooner than I initially anticipated. I think your guess for this weekends vaccinations look good. A large proportion of those should be first doses. If next week is marginally better than this week, I think that by next Sunday we could be knocking on the door of 40% of the population over 16 with a first vaccination.

freshpopcorn

For somebody who asked about the Mallow Vaccine Center they seem to be onto 66 year olds now.

Galwayguy35

GPs seem to be only giving the jab to the old and sick so far, people who are healthy seem to all have to wait to go to a vaccine cantre.

Jim_Hodge

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

GPs seem to be only giving the jab to the old and sick so far, people who are healthy seem to all have to wait to go to a vaccine cantre.

if only. I know a relative in their 50s with no medical issues who got vaccinated by their friend and GP last week. Meanwhile we in our 60s are waiting for appointments at the MVC.