Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

salmocab

stephenjmcd wrote: »

From listening to morning Ireland and having a skim through the morning papers you'd think the sky had come crashing down.

They're going overboard on J&J, complete lack of facts, one stating 40k doses were due this week, firstly they weren't it was this month and the J&J numbers are very small in the next few weeks.

Secondly they seem to completely skim over the fact that the FDA said they expect the pause in the states to last "only a number of days"

Very frustrating knowing most of the population get their news from these sources & they go completely over the top and people wouldn't know about the things posted here for example in the last 24hrs with regards to the FDA etc.

Sorry all for the rant but it's very annoying seeing all of this being misinterpreted & going completely overboard

Unfortunately it’s the world we made for ourselves, the internet in general and social media in particular means that everything is done in the public eye which on the surface is a good thing unfortunately it means that people with an agenda or just plain wrong will have their voices heard and amplified by people of similar mindsets. People far too often start at a conclusion and work backwards for evidence and the internet is full of evidence of any stand point you want to take.
We don’t want to pay for good journalism so instead get bad journalism for free, they get paid by getting clicks not writing good articles.

bucketybuck

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Anyways, my point is I think most young people will take a vaccine in the end but calling them selfish if they hesitate is not exactly going to bring them on board.

It highlights a problem with our governments approach since the very start, they completely ignored the human element in all this.

The young people of this country have been treated disgracefully in this past year, they had everything taken away from them while never being treated as anything more than collateral damage. Their jobs, their education and their chances all taken away and then told to stop whining and "hold firm".

Now they are being told to take a vaccine that possibly could kill them to protect against a virus that doesn't hurt them, all to protect people that did nothing for them. And we wonder why they may have stopped giving a damn?

I'm not young and I'll have my vaccine in the next few weeks, but I can completely see how extremely poor messaging and communication this past year has led to a situation where a lot of people may no longer care how selfish they are or are not.

stephenjmcd

Huge news, portal opening tomorrow.

I have to say I agree with the step by step for sign up, should ensure the system isn't overloaded each day.

So tomorrow Thursday aged 69, Friday 68 and so on.

Vaccinations from next week so we should see AZ being rolled out in big numbers again next week

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1382239419135066115?s=19

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Secondly they seem to completely skim over the fact that the FDA said they expect the pause in the states to last "only a number of days"

Very frustrating knowing most of the population get their news from these sources & they go completely over the top and people wouldn't know about the things posted here for example in the last 24hrs with regards to the FDA etc.

Sorry all for the rant but it's very annoying seeing all of this being misinterpreted & going completely overboard

The pause isn't the problem, the fact that there is a problem is the problem! IF we end up applying the same restrictions to J&J that we do to AZ then ~1m doses of J&J that we are going to receive in May, June and July will go to waste. That means we need 2m doses of Pfizer and Moderna to cover that. Add the 500k AZ doses that will also go to waste over that time-frame and that is 2 months of supply. That is why we should be worried. It's potentially the biggest setback since AZ's bombshell in January.

So it becomes a question of what threshold of blood clots will our decision makers accept and what is the true rate of blood clots with J&J. We don't know the answer to either at this stage.

is_that_so

eoinbn wrote: »

The pause isn't the problem, the fact that there is a problem is the problem! IF we end up applying the same restrictions to J&J that we do to AZ then ~1m doses of J&J that we are going to receive in May, June and July will go to waste. That means we need 2m doses of Pfizer and Moderna to cover that. Add the 500k AZ doses that will also go to waste over that time-frame and that is 2 months of supply. That is why we should be worried. It's potentially the biggest setback since AZ's bombshell in January.

So it becomes a question of what threshold of blood clots will our decision makers accept and what is the true rate of blood clots with J&J. We don't know the answer to either at this stage.

We know that the frequency of this rare event is between 4 and 10 per million, that's the threshold. I also think it's unwise to be making predictions on vaccines, even 4 weeks into the future. There is investigative work going on, work you'd imagine will deliver more information quite quickly. It's in nobody's interest have a scenario like this unfold.

Professor Moriarty

eoinbn wrote: »

The pause isn't the problem, the fact that there is a problem is the problem! IF we end up applying the same restrictions to J&J that we do to AZ then ~1m doses of J&J that we are going to receive in May, June and July will go to waste. That means we need 2m doses of Pfizer and Moderna to cover that. Add the 500k AZ doses that will also go to waste over that time-frame and that is 2 months of supply. That is why we should be worried. It's potentially the biggest setback since AZ's bombshell in January.

So it becomes a question of what threshold of blood clots will our decision makers accept and what is the true rate of blood clots with J&J. We don't know the answer to either at this stage.

Maybe they can develop a method of predicting who will be at risk of blood clots.

eoinbn

is_that_so wrote: »

We know that the frequency of this rare event is between 4 and 10 per million, that's the threshold. I also think it's unwise to be making predictions on vaccines, even 4 weeks into the future. There is investigative work going on, work you'd imagine will deliver more information quite quickly. It's in nobody's interest have a scenario like this unfold.

That is for AZ. We don't know what it is for J&J. ~1 in 1 million is the only figure we have at the moment but a few weeks ago the UK were claiming 1 in 5 million which turned out to be far from the truth.

is_that_so

eoinbn wrote: »

That is for AZ. We don't know what it is for J&J. ~1 in 1 million is the only figure we have at the moment but a few weeks ago the UK were claiming 1 in 5 million which turned out to be far from the truth.

It's still going to very rare. Either way they need to get to the bottom of it and the current approach is about the best that can be done.

ACitizenErased

eoinbn wrote: »

That is for AZ. We don't know what it is for J&J. ~1 in 1 million is the only figure we have at the moment but a few weeks ago the UK were claiming 1 in 5 million which turned out to be far from the truth.

Johnson and Johnson appears to be about 0.8 per 1,000,000. That is absolutely tiny. Ridiculously small.

josip

eoinbn wrote: »

The pause isn't the problem, the fact that there is a problem is the problem! IF we end up applying the same restrictions to J&J that we do to AZ then ~1m doses of J&J that we are going to receive in May, June and July will go to waste. That means we need 2m doses of Pfizer and Moderna to cover that. Add the 500k AZ doses that will also go to waste over that time-frame and that is 2 months of supply. That is why we should be worried. It's potentially the biggest setback since AZ's bombshell in January.

So it becomes a question of what threshold of blood clots will our decision makers accept and what is the true rate of blood clots with J&J. We don't know the answer to either at this stage.

We expect 600,000 doses of J&J in Q2, not 1m.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379770246194737157?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1379770370434158595%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D116815271

Boggerman12

dominatinMC wrote: »

Rant away, as I've done so many times. The media have been nothing short of disgraceful during this pandemic, their job is to inform not frighten, and we have seen a very definite shift towards the latter in recent times. I think a lot may be attributable to the rise in social media and the need to report first, ask questions and analyse later. Something of a modern day malaise.
At the moment, Covid is a gravy train for RTE and the rest, especially with Trump gone! The likes of Claire Byrne, and worse again Katie Hannon, live, breath and sleep Covid. It's ****ing pathetic really. If anyone comes knocking on my door looking for a licence fee, I'll take great pleasure in telling them where to go!

Add the absolutely annoying aine lawlor to that list followed in close 2nd place by Audrey carville.

eoinbn

josip wrote: »

We expect 600,000 doses of J&J in Q2, not 1m.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379770246194737157?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1379770370434158595%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D116815271

I am well aware of the figures. I said May, June, July. We are expecting another 400-500k from J&J in July which is Q3.

Had we just gone by age pretty much every 65+ person would have had a first shot by now. Major missed opportunity. But even with the lower proportion done we've seen the effects on deaths and hospitalisations.

eoinbn

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Johnson and Johnson appears to be about 0.8 per 1,000,000. That is absolutely tiny. Ridiculously small.

As I said in the post that you replied to - the UK were claiming .2 per 1,000,000 and now it could be as high as 10 per 1,000,000. We just don't know yet. The information is filtering in.
We also don't know the breakdown of who has got the 6.7m J&J doses. How many were in the low/no risk groups for the clotting issue(older age groups).

ACitizenErased

eoinbn wrote: »

As I said in the post that you replied to - the UK were claiming .2 per 1,000,000 and now it could be as high as 10 per 1,000,000. We just don't know yet. The information is filtering in.
We also don't know the breakdown of who has got the 6.7m J&J doses. How many were in the low/no risk groups for the clotting issue(older age groups).

The sample size is 6.8 million, more than enough to extrapolate from, so yes we do know.

Is it likely that cohort 4 will now not resume until all over 70's have their first dose?

TomOnBoard

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe they can develop a method of predicting who will be at risk of blood clots.

The scientists seem to be zeroing in upon the AZ clotting resulting from an immune system response that triggers a massive effect on Platelet Factor 4. This appears to be a syndrome that is similar to a known condition called heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT).

As to how they could predict the likelihood of one person in a general population being a likely candidate for this HIT-like effect, I suspect that, once again, scientists in the field will now be working flat out on that.

The positive on this is that, as greater attention is now being directed at the syndrome, clinical treatment may now focus earlier on ppl who are assessed to have developed a low platelet count and treat them before the clotting occurs.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Is it likely that cohort 4 will now not resume until all over 70's have their first dose?

Doubt it. They'll just swap doses. Give cohort 4 the RNA and give the 70s the AZ

ddarcy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Had we just gone by age pretty much every 65+ person would have had a first shot by now. Major missed opportunity. But even with the lower proportion done we've seen the effects on deaths and hospitalisations.

I agree to a point. But the ICU nurses etc who are deep in the worst of it all everyday, always needed to be first. Then it should have gone by age. Much simpler rollout that way. Instead you have consultants pulling lists of patients, GPs pulling lists etc.

As an example I’ve been just invited for another jab as there is no clear communication or method of tracking in the HSE...

Turtwig

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The sample size is 6.8 million, more than enough to extrapolate from, so yes we do know.

Cases take time to present, be reported and officially identified. Your sample size is not 6.8 million (yet). There is considerable uncertainty in the detection rates. The incidence level is far too low to confidently extrapolate from.

We need more time and study of data. Hence what the EMA asked for.

ddarcy

ddarcy wrote: »

I agree to a point. But the ICU nurses etc who are deep in the worst of it all everyday, always needed to be first. Then it should have gone by age. Much simpler rollout that way. Instead you have consultants pulling lists of patients, GPs pulling lists etc.

As an example I’ve been just invited for another jab as there is no clear communication or method of tracking in the HSE...

My mother has been offered a first dose 4 times since she got her first dose. Fair old mess. Dad's been told by his GP it'll probably be 6-8 weeks before he gets his. But then there's the portal opening for him next week so who the feck know.

ddarcy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is it likely that cohort 4 will now not resume until all over 70's have their first dose?

It’s literally a supply and demand problem. The HSE has halted everything until next week at the MVCs (or so it seems). So they’re trying to figure things out on that end.

But I’m sure cohort 4 who are going though GPs that were always going to get Pfizer/ Moderna, nothing has changed for them.

ACitizenErased

Turtwig wrote: »

Cases take time to present, be reported and officially identified. Your sample size is not 6.8 million (yet). There is considerable uncertainty in the detection rates. The incidence level is far too low to confidently extrapolate from.

We need more time and study of data. Hence what the EMA asked for.

The FDA is using 6 in 6.8 to make decisions.

Necronomicon

I've been lurking in this thread since Day 1, it's been keeping me sane throughout the pandemic. Lately I've enjoyed reading the anecdotes of posters whose nearest and dearest have been getting vaccinated. Well, today it's my turn! Please indulge the back story, feeling a tad emotional.

My dad, 71, battled through a rare form of leukemia in late 2019 into 2020 It didn't always look good, but he beat it into remission - just in time for the pandemic to start. Then his first grandchild was born, one of his stated motivations to beat the illness - and he's largely had to get to know her through Facetime.

I've been chewing my nails wondering when he was going to get the call. Well, we found out this morning (on my birthday, no less!) that he's getting his first shot today! I've been hoping beyond hope that he'll get to see his granddaughter on her first birthday in late May, and now it doesn't feel like a pipe dream anymore.

namloc1980

ddarcy wrote: »

It’s literally a supply and demand problem. The HSE has halted everything until next week at the MVCs (or so it seems). So they’re trying to figure things out on that end.

But I’m sure cohort 4 who are going though GPs that were always going to get Pfizer/ Moderna, nothing has changed for them.

Cohort 4 were going to be getting AZ including those being done at their GP.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

Cases take time to present, be reported and officially identified. Your sample size is not 6.8 million (yet). There is considerable uncertainty in the detection rates. The incidence level is far too low to confidently extrapolate from.

We need more time and study of data. Hence what the EMA asked for.

Meanwhile there’ll be people screaming to stay locked down while we wait and see whether these blood clots affect 1 in a million or 4/5 in a million.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile there’ll be people screaming to stay locked down while we wait and see whether these blood clots affect 1 in a million or 4/5 in a million.

This is it. We'd need to see 30 odd or so more serious cases in the US before it even reaches the level of AZ numbers.

stephenjmcd

Deleted User wrote: »

My mother has been offered a first dose 4 times since she got her first dose. Fair old mess. Dad's been told by his GP it'll probably be 6-8 weeks before he gets his. But then there's the portal opening for him next week so who the feck know.

Is your dad in an at risk group ?

Icantthinkof1

Necronomicon wrote: »

I've been chewing my nails wondering when he was going to get the call. Well, we found out this morning (on my birthday, no less!) that he's getting his first shot today! I've been hoping beyond hope that he'll get to see his granddaughter on her first birthday in late May, and now it doesn't feel like a pipe dream anymore.

Great news and happy birthday to you!!

ACitizenErased

In good vaccine news:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1382148098743529479?s=20