Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

duffman13

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

The numbers of cases are not important. Most of the 400 plus cases a day are in people under the age of 45 and the hospitals are not over run. The elderly are protected. The vulnerable are mostly protected at this stage. We as a country do not need to react to cases. We need to carry on with the opening up and unless the hospitals are under pressure then we will open.

Spot on. The vulnerable bar cohort 7 have been vaccinated, hopefully cohort 7 is solved soon but once this variant isn't resistant to vaccines nothing should change. Hospital numbers from now on are a way more accurate way to issue responses from a public health view.

Keep the vaccines going and keep the reopening on track. December and now are comparing apples and oranges to be honest

maviesk

Even if the situation was concerning enough to add GB to the red list (which I really don’t believe it is), it would be a futile exercise given you can fly to and from three airports in Northern Ireland.

revelman

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

The numbers of cases is not important. Most of the 400 plus cases a day are in people under the age of 45 and the hospitals are not over run. The elderly are protected. The vulnerable are mostly protected at this stage. We as a country do not need to react to cases. We need to carry on with the opening up and unless the hospitals are under pressure then we will open.

I’m afraid I disagree with this approach. The base number of cases is important since, as we continue to open up, more and more unvaccinated people will come into contact with each other. You are right that the vast majority of younger people will be unaffected by the virus. But a small minority will be severely affected. If you take into account that between 2 and 2.5 million adults have still not been vaccinated, a” small minority” of 2 million people could represent quite a significant number of people who may suffer severe illness or even death. See the effect on young people in Brazil and elsewhere.

Waiting for hospital numbers to go up up before we react is the wrong approach since that will be too late. The right approach is to put a vaccine in everyone’s arm ASAP. I think they should delay second doses and give everyone a first dose now.

Turtwig

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

The numbers of cases are not important. Most of the 400 plus cases a day are in people under the age of 45 and the hospitals are not over run. The elderly are protected. The vulnerable are mostly protected at this stage. We as a country do not need to react to cases. We need to carry on with the opening up and unless the hospitals are under pressure then we will open.

As I understand it there is a two week lag between confirming a covid case and confirming it is the concerning Indian sub lineage. The cases of it in Ireland and the UK are a snapshot of two to three weeks ago.
Case numbers do still matter. They just matter less. It is not correct to say we should not react to cases. Hospitalisations lag cases. By the time hospitalisations start rising the train is already on the tracks. It's much harder to halt then. If hospitalisations start leading cases then you know you're in a very sh1t place.

Our current daily case rate we can handle. That's thanks to the vaccines. That isn't not the same thing as saying we can ignore all daily case rates. Our case numbers are still important. Just we can afford higher rates than we could in previous waves.

Supercell

revelman wrote: »

Waiting for hospital numbers to go up up before we react is the wrong approach since that will be too late.

Nail on the head, agree 100%

Lumen

Unfortunately our hospital numbers, usually posted very speedily, are currently being held to ransom.

No updates since 13 May!

Fckers.

duffman13

revelman wrote: »

Waiting for hospital numbers to go up up before we react is the wrong approach since that will be too late. The right approach is to put a vaccine in everyone’s arm ASAP. I think they should delay second doses and give everyone a first dose now.

Your second point is something I'd agree with. The first point, well it needs to be nuanced, if cases numbers creep up over a period of time that is not an issue once hospital numbers are not concerning. If we got a 1000 or 2000 cases a day and the hospital numbers remain consistent or start increase very slowly then that is not a concern in the grand scheme of things speaking coldly.

Outcomes are vastly improved for those people we have not vaccinated (exception of cohort 7) and these are were the majority of cases lie. Cross this with we have vaccinations (AZ and J&J) that will potentially do more damage than Covid to those very people (under 50s) you'd be locking down to protect, it doesn't make sense to roll back significantly on the planned reopening based on case numbers.

If the variant is vaccine resistant then we have a problem but cases should not be the main benchmark for the reopening of the country

irishlad.

Lumen wrote: »

Unfortunately our hospital numbers, usually posted very speedily, are currently being held to ransom.

No updates since 13 May!

Fckers.

I'd love a few numbers right now :pac:

robinbird

The narrative that we are doing a wonderful job and the the rollout is only constrained by supply seems off to me. Consider the following.

• We are dead last in western europe in terms of per capita rollout. Some countries like Germany, Spain and Denmark are doing significantly better.
  
• We have a very large amount of vaccines just sitting in storage. Latest figures are at least 640,000 unused doses being held back.Deliveries are also set to increase significantly in coming weeks.
  
• Having referrals by doctors of favoured patients is leading to perceptions of unfairness and cute hoorism as hundreds of thousands wait their turn

Possible solutions.
Open the MVCs 12 hours a day and do whatever is necessary for next two weeks to ramp up now to begin reduce the stockpiles.

Contract with AZ is set to expire in June so just give whatever we have on hand to 50s now and then forget about it. Use future deliveries for second doses only.

We have 400,000 doses of Pfizers sitting in storage unused. Use some of it to finish the 50s next week.

Continue using doctor referrals to further deplete vaccines in storage.

Open up portal to 40s on Weds. Give them a choice of J&J or Pfizer. Start vaccinations of this cohort from 24th May. Those that opt of J&J may have to wait till increased deliveries come in early June.

Once again if we have very large amounts in storage and are close to last in the EU in terms of rollout we are not doing a wonderful job.

TheWonderLlama

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

I wouldnt bat an eyelid. If I have the vaccine I don't care about anyone else and what they do or don't do.

Yes I know all the Ifs and what abouts but i don't live my life worrying about something that may never happen. The vaccines work, don't worry about others.

Even if there is a risk of that unvaccinated person infecting you?
It might be a low risk if you are fully vaccinated, but a risk nonetheless.

Micky 32

TheWonderLlama wrote: »

Even if there is a risk of that unvaccinated person infecting you?
It might be a low risk if you are fully vaccinated, but a risk nonetheless.

If i’m fully vaccinated i certainly won’t be worrying my life away or hiding under my bed biting my nails with paranoia about Covid 19. The chances of being very sick and dying is quite slim.

Sweet.Science

TheWonderLlama wrote: »

Even if there is a risk of that unvaccinated person infecting you?
It might be a low risk if you are fully vaccinated, but a risk nonetheless.

Honestly . There would be thousands more things to worry about leaving your house than covid after being fully vaccinated

WoollyRedHat

Micky 32 wrote: »

Don’t we just love RTE :

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0513/1221323-india-virus-global/

https://twitter.com/niamh_power/status/1392782678609612801?s=20

Considering the primary source of the misinformation has now been deleted, RTE should delete tweet and amend article... whatever happened to corrections?

SJFly

robinbird wrote: »

Once again if we have very large amounts in storage and are close to last in the EU in terms of rollout we are not doing a wonderful job.

Some of the built up stock will be caused by the hse planning to maximise the use of available vaccines. It may well serve us well in the long run. It remains to be seen.
To be honest, when we are within a couple of days of the pack, I really don't think it's an issue.

WoollyRedHat

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not sure if it's been posted here yet, but looks like delaying the second dose of mRNA vaccine might actually increase peak antibody response

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/latest/2021/05/covid-pfizer-vaccination-interval-antibody-response.aspx

Small study of 175 people over 80

As good as Pfizer have been, it is in their interest to get as many jabs in arms, which why they are trying to suggest a third shot will be needed from Autumn, which WHO and CDC have said may not necessary.

Really hope we change track as Science and data changes. I also think we should consider surge vaccinating people on the border of NI, as soon as possible.

charlie14

robinbird wrote: »

The narrative that we are doing a wonderful job and the the rollout is only constrained by supply seems off to me. Consider the following.

• We are dead last in western europe in terms of per capita rollout. Some countries like Germany, Spain and Denmark are doing significantly better.
• We have a very large amount of vaccines just sitting in storage. Latest figures are at least 640,000 unused doses being held back.Deliveries are also set to increase significantly in coming weeks.
• Having referrals by doctors of favoured patients is leading to perceptions of unfairness and cute hoorism as hundreds of thousands wait their turn

Possible solutions.
Open the MVCs 12 hours a day and do whatever is necessary for next two weeks to ramp up now to begin reduce the stockpiles.

Contract with AZ is set to expire in June so just give whatever we have on hand to 50s now and then forget about it. Use future deliveries for second doses only.

We have 400,000 doses of Pfizers sitting in storage unused. Use some of it to finish the 50s next week.

Continue using doctor referrals to further deplete vaccines in storage.

Open up portal to 40s on Weds. Give them a choice of J&J or Pfizer. Start vaccinations of this cohort from 24th May. Those that opt of J&J may have to wait till increased deliveries come in early June.

Once again if we have very large amounts in storage and are close to last in the EU in terms of rollout we are not doing a wonderful job.

From the European Centre for Disease Contol and Prevention vaccine rollout review up to and including Sunday 9th, of the 30 EU/EEA countries we are 10th for uptake of at least one vaccine dose among adults at 35.8%.

Happydays2020

charlie14 wrote: »

From the European Centre for Disease Contol and Prevention vaccine rollout review up to and including Sunday 9th, of the 30 EU/EEA countries we are 10th for uptake of at least one vaccine dose among adults at 35.8%.

Do we really have 640000 unused vaccines?

charlie14

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Do we really have 640000 unused vaccines?

No idea, but from the ECDC data we are far from the worst in Europe. The 9 ahead of us are Malta, Iceland, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Belgium, Hungary, Austria and Sweden.

Very little between Ireland (35.8%) in 10th. Austria (36.3%) in 9th and Sweden (37.1%) in 8th.

secman

Yeah but it makes some people happier to ignore facts and slate us for being last.

freshpopcorn

My mother’s appointment was at 11:20 and there’s still 30 ahead of her.
My father insisted on coming and I’ve a running commentary on the weather, umbrellas, coats, etc. luckily he fell asleep for a while.

robinbird

charlie14 wrote: »

No idea, but from the ECDC data we are far from the worst in Europe. The 9 ahead of us are Malta, Iceland, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Belgium, Hungary, Austria and Sweden.

charlie14 wrote: »

From the European Centre for Disease Contol and Prevention vaccine rollout review up to and including Sunday 9th, of the 30 EU/EEA countries we are 10th for uptake of at least one vaccine dose among adults at 35.8%.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Do we really have 640000 unused vaccines?

From 13th May figures on the website below we are 23rd in the EU in terms of rollout. Dead last in Western Europe

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

We currently have 643,000 vaccines sitting in storage unused. (Data from May 12th) Breakdown as follows

Pfizer: 425,000
Moderna: 130,000
AZ: 30,000
J&J: 44,000

Now understandable have that amount of AZ for second doses and hold back the J&J till decision is made on 45-50s next Tues.

But having 550,000 doses of Pfizer/Moderna sitting in warehouses at a time we are getting deliveries of 180,000 Pfizer a week is not doing a good job.
Other EU countries are managing the same pro rata supply much better which is why we are last

Bit cynical

robinbird wrote: »

The narrative that we are doing a wonderful job and the the rollout is only constrained by supply seems off to me. Consider the following.

• We are dead last in western europe in terms of per capita rollout. Some countries like Germany, Spain and Denmark are doing significantly better.
  
• We have a very large amount of vaccines just sitting in storage. Latest figures are at least 640,000 unused doses being held back.Deliveries are also set to increase significantly in coming weeks.
  
• Having referrals by doctors of favoured patients is leading to perceptions of unfairness and cute hoorism as hundreds of thousands wait their turn

Possible solutions.
Open the MVCs 12 hours a day and do whatever is necessary for next two weeks to ramp up now to begin reduce the stockpiles.

Contract with AZ is set to expire in June so just give whatever we have on hand to 50s now and then forget about it. Use future deliveries for second doses only.

We have 400,000 doses of Pfizers sitting in storage unused. Use some of it to finish the 50s next week.

Continue using doctor referrals to further deplete vaccines in storage.

Open up portal to 40s on Weds. Give them a choice of J&J or Pfizer. Start vaccinations of this cohort from 24th May. Those that opt of J&J may have to wait till increased deliveries come in early June.

Once again if we have very large amounts in storage and are close to last in the EU in terms of rollout we are not doing a wonderful job.

Most EU countries are still in a fairly tight band however with Ireland somewhere in the middle. I don't think therefore it is true that we're at the very bottom. The good news though is that the EU generally has finally caught up with the overall pace of vaccinations with the US and UK. It does leave us about two months behind those countries but the gap is no longer widening thankfully.


That said, there's still room for improvement both in Ireland and at the EU level.

Happydays2020

robinbird wrote: »

From 13th May figures on the website below we are 23rd in the EU in terms of rollout. Dead last in Western Europe

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

We currently have 643,000 vaccines sitting in storage unused. (Data from May 12th) Breakdown as follows

Pfizer: 425,000
Moderna: 130,000
AZ: 30,000
J&J: 44,000

Now understandable have that amount of AZ for second doses and hold back the J&J till decision is made on 45-50s next Tues.

But having 550,000 doses of Pfizer/Moderna sitting in warehouses at a time we are getting deliveries of 180,000 Pfizer a week is not doing a good job.
Other EU countries are managing the same pro rata supply much better which is why we are last

I am wondering should be jettison AZ now. Stick with Pfizer as the workhorse but recognise level of vaccination after one dose and extend period. JJ will still have a role. Not sure will we get more moderna?

robinbird

Bit cynical wrote: »

Most EU countries are still in a fairly tight band however with Ireland somewhere in the middle. I don't think therefore it is true that we're at the very bottom.
That said, there's still room for improvement both in Ireland and at the EU level.

We are not "in the middle". We are last in western europe per capita for doses administered as of May 12th. There are only a few former soviet bloc eastern european countries behind us.

Again EU comparison is the most useful as it shows how different countries are managing the same supply.

astrofool

The AZ contract will not end in June, the contract is still to supply the 300M or so vaccines that are in the order, it just means that further AZ won't be ordered once that contract is complete (whenever AZ get around to supplying it).

Again, best page to track this is https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

We have used 75% Pfizer, 42% Moderna and 92% AZ at the moment, the Pfizer number usually hits 95% each Saturday/Sunday and that's been consistent, Moderna need a 50% hold back, so we'll rarely be much above 50% as more comes in until the first large tranches of second doses get done. AZ is basically used up but scheduling is difficult (the first set of second doses on the 12 week schedule will be coming up soon).

Janssen has only just begun rollout but should catch up quickly.

Wolf359f

astrofool wrote: »

The AZ contract will not end in June, the contract is still to supply the 300M or so vaccines that are in the order, it just means that further AZ won't be ordered once that contract is complete (whenever AZ get around to supplying it).

Again, best page to track this is https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

We have used 75% Pfizer, 42% Moderna and 92% AZ at the moment, the Pfizer number usually hits 95% each Saturday/Sunday and that's been consistent, Moderna need a 50% hold back, so we'll rarely be much above 50% as more comes in until the first large tranches of second doses get done. AZ is basically used up but scheduling is difficult (the first set of second doses on the 12 week schedule will be coming up soon).

Janssen has only just begun rollout but should catch up quickly.

Moderna has been used for second doses already, it's nonsence to hold back 50% of the total delivered. Hold back the second doses needed and then use 50% of what's left.

That 95% figure is accurate enough, however week after week that 5% in actual doses increases as it's a percent of total deliveries. If their delivery schedule was as unreliable as AZ, fair enough, but Pfizer has proven to be reliable.

Fair enough holding back 5% of available Pfizer per week, not 5% of the total we have received and used so far. That's madness.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Isn't most of the reason for the supposedly high 'storage numbers' the fact that the IT systems are down? It doesn't tell the real story because we haven't updated the vaccination data, we're probably beyond 30% of the population vaccinated with a first dose by now. And stock has to be kept back for 2nd doses (Moderna have a high threshold request in particular).

astrofool

Wolf359f wrote: »

Moderna has been used for second doses already, it's nonsence to hold back 50% of the total delivered. Hold back the second doses needed and then use 50% of what's left.

That 95% figure is accurate enough, however week after week that 5% in actual doses increases as it's a percent of total deliveries. If their delivery schedule was as unreliable as AZ, fair enough, but Pfizer has proven to be reliable.

Fair enough holding back 5% of available Pfizer per week, not 5% of the total we have received and used so far. That's madness.

Moderna, the supplier, has specified that 50% has to be held back for second doses, it's part of the supply deal, hence, we won't really see > 50% used until a lot of second doses get doled out, supply is also small compared to other vaccines and inconsistent. As the deliveries get larger, the % held back will also start to get bigger (until we hit the confluence of second doses from a large delivery week).

Pfizer hold back will be for second doses due that week, there will be a week ~4 weeks from now when a very large% will be held back due to the amount given out this week, this is by design, yes the supply has been stable, but they will ensure they have the supply in stock for booked second doses the week before rather than an issue throwing out the dosing schedule which would have chaotic knock on effects.

astrofool

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Isn't most of the reason for the supposedly high 'storage numbers' the fact that the IT systems are down? It doesn't tell the real story because we haven't updated the vaccination data, we're probably beyond 30% of the population vaccinated with a first dose by now. And stock has to be kept back for 2nd doses (Moderna have a high threshold request in particular).

Our data is 4 days old, the day for people screaming about supplies in fridge has also been pushed out 2 days this week

gozunda

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Isn't most of the reason for the supposedly high 'storage numbers' the fact that the IT systems are down? It doesn't tell the real story because we haven't updated the vaccination data, we're probably beyond 30% of the population vaccinated with a first dose by now. And stock has to be kept back for 2nd doses (Moderna have a high threshold request in particular).

What does that mean?