Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Bit cynical

robinbird wrote: »

We are not "in the middle". We are last in western europe per capita for doses administered as of May 12th. There are only a few former soviet bloc eastern european countries behind us.

Again EU comparison is the most useful as it shows how different countries are managing the same supply.

Well yes, we are fairly low down the list if you exclude all the former Eastern Bloc countries. However on an overall EU basis we are close to the EU average when weighted by population and the overall variance is still low when you compare the EU to, say, the US or UK. This suggests that EU supply is still a bottleneck though, thankfully, less so than before.

robinbird

robinbird wrote: »

We are not "in the middle". We are last in western europe per capita for doses administered as of May 12th. There are only a few former soviet bloc eastern european countries behind us.

Again EU comparison is the most useful as it shows how different countries are managing the same supply.

Goes to show how good the comms have been. Been poor in terms of rollout and are last as you mentioned for countries in Western Europe. IT systems, data collection & the HSE are simply way behind Western Europe.

Wolf359f

astrofool wrote: »

Moderna, the supplier, has specified that 50% has to be held back for second doses, it's part of the supply deal, hence, we won't really see > 50% used until a lot of second doses get doled out, supply is also small compared to other vaccines and inconsistent. As the deliveries get larger, the % held back will also start to get bigger (until we hit the confluence of second doses from a large delivery week).

Pfizer hold back will be for second doses due that week, there will be a week ~4 weeks from now when a very large% will be held back due to the amount given out this week, this is by design, yes the supply has been stable, but they will ensure they have the supply in stock for booked second doses the week before rather than an issue throwing out the dosing schedule which would have chaotic knock on effects.

On Moderna, my rough calculations of the most second doses outstanding would be 42k. So 23.5k have been fully vaccinated with Moderna (2 doses) and at most 42k received their first dose. So of the 127k in stock, 42k needs to be used for second doses. The remaining 85k, you could give 42.5k first doses and hold back the other 42.5k for their second doses.
In that scenario (assuming no more Moderna deliveries for a while) you would have 84.5k held back (39% held back) That's worst case, assuming they spent 4 weeks giving dose 1, then 4 weeks with no dose 1 given and only giving dose 2 etc...

I think the powers to be misunderstood Moderna requesting holding back 50%, I think that's more a case of if you give out 10k first doses, hold 10k doses in stock for their second dose for 4 weeks. After 4 weeks, that 10k will be released for their second dose and there's no need to hold 10k back again as they are fully vaccinated.

218k Moderna delivered so far. Now, what's the maximum number of people you can fully vaccinate without anyone missing their second dose (assuming there's no more Moderna vaccine deliveries for the foreseeable future)

To put it into perspective we have administered 43% of our Moderna Stock compared to:
Netherlands: 52%
Bulgaria: 53%
Germany: 65%
Portugal: 66%
Finland: 67%
Luxembourg: 69%
Croatia: 72%
Latvia: 72%
Belgium: 73%
Romania: 73%
Estonia: 73%
Slovakia: 74%
Italy: 74%
Spain: 74%
Liechtenstein: 79%
Hungary: 80%
Czechia: 81%
Austria: 81%
Slovenia: 82%
Sweden: 85%
Poland: 85%
France: 86%
Greece: 89%
Iceland: 91%
Norway: 97%
Lithuania: 100%
Denmark: 100%
Cyprus: 100%
Did they all not get the hold 50% memo?

astrofool

Wolf359f wrote: »

On Moderna, my rough calculations of the most second doses outstanding would be 42k. So 23.5k have been fully vaccinated with Moderna (2 doses) and at most 42k received their first dose. So of the 127k in stock, 42k needs to be used for second doses. The remaining 85k, you could give 42.5k first doses and hold back the other 42.5k for their second doses.
In that scenario (assuming no more Moderna deliveries for a while) you would have 84.5k held back (39% held back) That's worst case, assuming they spent 4 weeks giving dose 1, then 4 weeks with no dose 1 given and only giving dose 2 etc...

I think the powers to be misunderstood Moderna requesting holding back 50%, I think that's more a case of if you give out 10k first doses, hold 10k doses in stock for their second dose for 4 weeks. After 4 weeks, that 10k will be released for their second dose and there's no need to hold 10k back again as they are fully vaccinated.

218k Moderna delivered so far. Now, what's the maximum number of people you can fully vaccinate without anyone missing their second dose (assuming there's no more Moderna vaccine deliveries for the foreseeable future)

To put it into perspective we have administered 43% of our Moderna Stock compared to:
Netherlands: 52%
Bulgaria: 53%
Germany: 65%
Portugal: 66%
Finland: 67%
Luxembourg: 69%
Croatia: 72%
Latvia: 72%
Belgium: 73%
Romania: 73%
Estonia: 73%
Slovakia: 74%
Italy: 74%
Spain: 74%
Liechtenstein: 79%
Hungary: 80%
Czechia: 81%
Austria: 81%
Slovenia: 82%
Sweden: 85%
Poland: 85%
France: 86%
Greece: 89%
Iceland: 91%
Norway: 97%
Lithuania: 100%
Denmark: 100%
Cyprus: 100%
Did they all not get the hold 50% memo?

We should be aiming to get to about 60-70%, I'm guessing the 100% figures aren't accurate, but also that some countries are disregarding the hold back for whatever reason (or happy to push the second doses out to get more first doses). We also seem to be using Moderna for specific groups, such as the GP at the beginning, and then keeping the MVC to Pfizer/AZ, hopefully this changes, but it's not going to make a big difference in the grand scheme of things, I'm more interested in seeing the Pfizer % once the data is updated. Every week someone shouts about the % used and every week we hit 95% again, I'm sure we'll see it next week and the week after.

When we get to July/August, the % unused will go up due to chasing people to be vaccinated (just for a glimpse of the future), hopefully we're pragmatic about it and get excess stock over to covax as soon as we can (and get a 12-15 year old plan in place).

ddarcy

Wolf359f wrote: »

On Moderna, my rough calculations of the most second doses outstanding would be 42k. So 23.5k have been fully vaccinated with Moderna (2 doses) and at most 42k received their first dose. So of the 127k in stock, 42k needs to be used for second doses. The remaining 85k, you could give 42.5k first doses and hold back the other 42.5k for their second doses.
In that scenario (assuming no more Moderna deliveries for a while) you would have 84.5k held back (39% held back) That's worst case, assuming they spent 4 weeks giving dose 1, then 4 weeks with no dose 1 given and only giving dose 2 etc...

I think the powers to be misunderstood Moderna requesting holding back 50%, I think that's more a case of if you give out 10k first doses, hold 10k doses in stock for their second dose for 4 weeks. After 4 weeks, that 10k will be released for their second dose and there's no need to hold 10k back again as they are fully vaccinated.

218k Moderna delivered so far. Now, what's the maximum number of people you can fully vaccinate without anyone missing their second dose (assuming there's no more Moderna vaccine deliveries for the foreseeable future)

To put it into perspective we have administered 43% of our Moderna Stock compared to:
Netherlands: 52%
Bulgaria: 53%
Germany: 65%
Portugal: 66%
Finland: 67%
Luxembourg: 69%
Croatia: 72%
Latvia: 72%
Belgium: 73%
Romania: 73%
Estonia: 73%
Slovakia: 74%
Italy: 74%
Spain: 74%
Liechtenstein: 79%
Hungary: 80%
Czechia: 81%
Austria: 81%
Slovenia: 82%
Sweden: 85%
Poland: 85%
France: 86%
Greece: 89%
Iceland: 91%
Norway: 97%
Lithuania: 100%
Denmark: 100%
Cyprus: 100%
Did they all not get the hold 50% memo?

The reality is we have a lawsuit happy population. And not doing as manufacturers recommended/ what clinical trials have done, is an open goal lawsuit wise. I could win a substantial payment without any legal help..,

Moderna isn’t supplying much and it’s hit or miss on a weekly basis. Moderna officially requires with the NIAC that you receive two doses of the same brand (true for all 2 dose regimens). France/Germany have moved that you can take 1Astra and 1 mRNA and be considered fully vaxed. Until we see the clinical trial in the uk complete, nothing will change here. That is supposed to wrap up in the next few weeks / early June, but I believe it is only mixing Astra and Moderna/ Pfizer/ Novovax.

Wolf359f

ddarcy wrote: »

The reality is we have a lawsuit happy population. And not doing as manufacturers recommended/ what clinical trials have done, is an open goal lawsuit wise. I could win a substantial payment without any legal help..,

Moderna isn’t supplying much and it’s hit or miss on a weekly basis. Moderna officially requires with the NIAC that you receive two doses of the same brand (true for all 2 dose regimens). France/Germany have moved that you can take 1Astra and 1 mRNA and be considered fully vaxed. Until we see the clinical trial in the uk complete, nothing will change here. That is supposed to wrap up in the next few weeks / early June, but I believe it is only mixing Astra and Moderna/ Pfizer/ Novovax.

My point is, I understand the rationale behind keeping a buffer for second doses, especially for moderna as their delivery is hit and miss. However, we have given 91k moderna out of 218k. So some of that 91k will need a second dose etc....

What I'm saying, if we said ok, 218k moderna delivered, let's give 109k a first dose and 4 weeks later we'll give them their second dose. That's 109k fully vaccinated compared to say 30k fully vaccinated and 30k with their first dose and 130k chilling in the fridge.

Then we get a 20k delivery, give 10k a first dose, wait 4 weeks and 10k their second dose etc...

Happydays2020

Wolf359f wrote: »

My point is, I understand the rationale behind keeping a buffer for second doses, especially for moderna as their delivery is hit and miss. However, we have given 91k moderna out of 218k. So some of that 91k will need a second dose etc....

What I'm saying, if we said ok, 218k moderna delivered, let's give 109k a first dose and 4 weeks later we'll give them their second dose. That's 109k fully vaccinated compared to say 30k fully vaccinated and 30k with their first dose and 130k chilling in the fridge.

Then we get a 20k delivery, give 10k a first dose, wait 4 weeks and 10k their second dose etc...

It is a very relevant to ask whether we are optimising our vaccine stocks. If there is another variant on the way then it is critical that we do.

ddarcy

Wolf359f wrote: »

My point is, I understand the rationale behind keeping a buffer for second doses, especially for moderna as their delivery is hit and miss. However, we have given 91k moderna out of 218k. So some of that 91k will need a second dose etc....

What I'm saying, if we said ok, 218k moderna delivered, let's give 109k a first dose and 4 weeks later we'll give them their second dose. That's 109k fully vaccinated compared to say 30k fully vaccinated and 30k with their first dose and 130k chilling in the fridge.

Then we get a 20k delivery, give 10k a first dose, wait 4 weeks and 10k their second dose etc...

Yes we should have 109k given out. But we are only missing from your numbers 18k (assuming all info is up to date). GPs are mainly delivering this and they get two week supplies, so this could be made up next week. Essentially it’s booked in to be delivered, but hasn’t yet in the way that GPs are giving it out. I see no issue here in fairness, if we had 200k and only 10k was delivered, you’d have a point, but the logistics of it all indicates is not an issue right now and will be sorted in the coming weeks anyways.

Wolf359f

ddarcy wrote: »

Yes we should have 109k given out. But we are only missing from your numbers 18k (assuming all info is up to date). GPs are mainly delivering this and they get two week supplies, so this could be made up next week. Essentially it’s booked in to be delivered, but hasn’t yet in the way that GPs are giving it out. I see no issue here in fairness, if we had 200k and only 10k was delivered, you’d have a point, but the logistics of it all indicates is not an issue right now and will be sorted in the coming weeks anyways.

But you're missing the point. Roughly 30k are fully vaccinated with moderna, that's 30k who will not need their second dose. That leaves 30k who will need a second dose out of 130k in the fridge. That's 100k sitting around chilling. No reason why 50k of that can't be released for vaccination and 50k held back for their second dose.

You don't hold back 50% of your entire delivery figure to date. You hold back 50% of your weekly deliveries. Then 4 weeks later that 50% gets released for their second jabs etc..

Wolf359f

Happydays2020 wrote: »

It is a very relevant to ask whether we are optimising our vaccine stocks. If there is another variant on the way then it is critical that we do.

Well on moderna we're certainly not optimising our stock. We could have had 109k fully vaccinated vs 90k jabs made up of some 1st and 2nd doses. Potentially 30k fully vaccinated and 30k with a first dose.

pc7

I think someone posted on one of the threads that they are starting in a MVC and the contract was hours later into the evening, hopefully this is the case and they extend the hours and get more done.

ACitizenErased

pc7 wrote: »

I think someone posted on one of the threads that they are starting in a MVC and the contract was hours later into the evening, hopefully this is the case and they extend the hours and get more done.

My mother got an appointment for 6:30pm in Pairc Ui Chaoimh so its definitely getting later

Bubbaclaus

The lack of vaccine data due to the ransomware attack has upset my daily routine. At least we will get a massive update eventually

stephenjmcd

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

The lack of vaccine data due to the ransomware attack has upset my daily routine. At least we will get a massive update eventually

Well if its worth anything in our own experience today, a very busy vacination centre in greystones this afternoon.

About 45 minutes from end of queue to finishing the 15 minute wait period.

That's both mother & father with first dose done now.

TheDoctor

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

The lack of vaccine data due to the ransomware attack has upset my daily routine. At least we will get a massive update eventually

I need new figures!

Someone make up swab, cases and hospital numbers please.

km79

HSE to call on 40-50 age group to register for Covid vaccine within days - Paul Reid

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hse-to-call-on-40-50-age-group-to-register-for-covid-vaccine-within-days-paul-reid-40429702.html

freshpopcorn

TheDoctor wrote: »

I need new figures!

Someone make up swab, cases and hospital numbers please.

Well your TheDoctor so you should be the one doing it!

Skygord

TheDoctor wrote: »

I need new figures!

Someone make up swab, cases and hospital numbers please.

OK - swabs 5 million, positivity zero, cases 0, hospitalisations 0, ICU 0, vaccination 2nd doses 100% of population :-)

I know it's strange not seeing the data, for those of us obsessively looking. maybe it'll help us break the habit?

TheDoctor

Skygord wrote: »

OK - swabs 5 million, positivity zero, cases 0, hospitalisations 0, ICU 0, vaccination 2nd doses 100% of population :-)

I know it's strange not seeing the data, for those of us obsessively looking. maybe it'll help us break the habit?

Great numbers today. Good to see.

klose

Judging by the ques I saw in town outside GPS and at the vaccine centre here Fridays numbers should be pretty high.

Strazdas

km79 wrote: »

HSE to call on 40-50 age group to register for Covid vaccine within days - Paul Reid

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hse-to-call-on-40-50-age-group-to-register-for-covid-vaccine-within-days-paul-reid-40429702.html

I'd take a guess at Tuesday or so for the 49 year olds, given the pace they are proceeding at.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1393595374137454600?s=21

Jim_Hodge

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd take a guess at Tuesday or so for the 49 year olds, given the pace they are proceeding at.

It very much depend on where you are. Some areas are still on the over 60s or starting on the late 50s.

km79

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd take a guess at Tuesday or so for the 49 year olds, given the pace they are proceeding at.

I wonder what vaccines will be made available....

km79

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It very much depend on where you are. Some areas are still on the over 60s or starting on the late 50s.

It’s just for registering

Gael23

Has anyone here got a vaccine through their GP?

Mine didn’t give me an appointment for the second one but said I’d be contacted nearer the time. Is this correct?

jellybear

Gael23 wrote: »

Has anyone here got a vaccine through their GP?

Mine didn’t give me an appointment for the second one but said I’d be contacted nearer the time. Is this correct?

I replied to you last time you asked this, they will contact you and if you're worried, just ring them. They're the only ones who can really answer your question.
Husband and I both vaccinated through GP. I was contacted the week of my 2nd vaccine with an appointment time and husband has been told he will receive a call the week of his 2nd vaccine, so it seems to be a fairly standard thing

Caquas

Caquas wrote: »

Having spent over an hour shuffling along in that Aviva queue the other morning, I think you are right.

Everyone in that queue had an appointment- the registration desk was vetting everyone first. So either they had given a ridiculous number of 11 o’clock appointments or there were lots of people turning up late, and I mean hours late. But people who deal with the HSE know the score - no one was going to get turned away so why get up early when you can saunter in at your own pace? Of course, in a rational system they would have been told they had missed their appointment and would have to wait.

What irritates me now is that they had hundreds of floor markers to keep social distance. So instead of planning for a smooth through flow, they were planning for massive queues. Although they had an appointment system which could precisely regulate the numbers in the building. I’m going to bed cranky just thinking about that!

A totally different and entirely positive experience today in the Helix for my missus.

Arrived exactly on time for her appointment, checked in and got the jab in just 10 minutes. Sat for 15 minutes to check for reaction (none yet!). Out of the car park 30 minutes after arrival. How it should be (and no sign of ransomware!)

On the other hand, a neighbour had the same two hour at the Aviva this week that I had last week. No excuse for that.

Jim_Hodge

Caquas wrote: »

A totally different and entirely positive experience today in the Helix for my missus.

Arrived exactly on time for her appointment, checked in and got the jab in just 10 minutes. Sat for 15 minutes to check for reaction (none yet!). Out of the car park 30 minutes after arrival. How it should be (and no sign of ransomware!)

On the other hand, a neighbour had the same two hour at the Aviva this week that I had last week. No excuse for that.

Here I was 35 minutes from getting out of the car until driving away again. And they said they were busy that afternoon. Very slick even though at first sight I thought I'd be there hours.

pc7

Gael23 wrote: »

Has anyone here got a vaccine through their GP?

Mine didn’t give me an appointment for the second one but said I’d be contacted nearer the time. Is this correct?

I was told they’ll contact me to confirm once they know their delivery schedule