Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Skygord

I'm disappointed that we're still waiting for Curevac to apply for EMA approval. Last I read was expected submission in mid-late May.

Anyone seen anything lately about when they might submit?

is_that_so

Skygord wrote: »

I'm disappointed that we're still waiting for Curevac to apply for EMA approval. Last I read was expected submission in mid-late May.

Anyone seen anything lately about when they might submit?

It's under rolling review anyway. Their own original predictions for approval were for June and late June at that. May was merely a possibility.

RavenBea17b

Good morning all,

Not sure if this has been posted. But some good news again.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1395371191301455879?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

RavenBea17b

Skygord wrote: »

I'm disappointed that we're still waiting for Curevac to apply for EMA approval. Last I read was expected submission in mid-late May.

Anyone seen anything lately about when they might submit?

I posted a question about this, with the same query in early April - it has gone very quiet, not seen anything from the EMA.

Lumen

Also, the last week has seen a dip of about a third in the UK's 7-day average daily cases, with around 54% of the population having at least one dose.

That is very close to the 57% at which Israel started seeing their cases drop sharply.

We're probably at around 33%, rising about 5% a week (stats aren't available since 11 May due to Russian geebags).

So the last phase of suppression here may possibly kick in late June.

boccy23

Lumen wrote: »

Also, the last week has seen a dip of about a third in the UK's 7-day average daily cases, with around 54% of the population having at least one dose.

That is very close to the 57% at which Israel started seeing their cases drop sharply.

We're probably at around 33%, rising about 5% a week (stats aren't available since 11 May due to Russian geebags).

So the last phase of suppression here may possibly kick in late June.

Maybe we should bomb them with Irish abuse terms!
They wouldn't have a clue what was going on, the gouls!

Probes

Lumen wrote: »

Also, the last week has seen a dip of about a third in the UK's 7-day average daily cases, with around 54% of the population having at least one dose.

That is very close to the 57% at which Israel started seeing their cases drop sharply.

We're probably at around 33%, rising about 5% a week (stats aren't available since 11 May due to Russian geebags).

So the last phase of suppression here may possibly kick in late June.

Hopefully, but I think the UK and Israel both have a lot of naturally gained immunity too in comparison with Ireland.

Lumen

Probes wrote: »

Hopefully, but I think the UK and Israel both have a lot of naturally gained immunity too in comparison with Ireland.

I doubt that's a big issue.

Israel: 97k cases per m.
UK: 66k cases per m.
Ireland: 52k cases per m.

The relatively big difference between Israel and the UK only amounted to 3% of the population (crudely) and didn't seem to make a big difference to the herd immunity threshold, so the smaller difference between the UK and Ireland is even less likely to matter.

We've also largely closed the gap to the UK due to our horrendous post-Christmas period and worse supply of vaccines.

questionmark?

Lumen wrote: »

Also, the last week has seen a dip of about a third in the UK's 7-day average daily cases, with around 54% of the population having at least one dose.

That is very close to the 57% at which Israel started seeing their cases drop sharply.

We're probably at around 33%, rising about 5% a week (stats aren't available since 11 May due to Russian geebags).

So the last phase of suppression here may possibly kick in late June.

Paul Reid said yesterday it was around 43%!! We could very easily (taken into account second doses) easily be hitting 50% or more with first dose by the end of the month.

Lumen

questionmark? wrote: »

Paul Reid said yesterday it was around 43%!! We could very easily (taken into account second doses) easily be hitting 50% or more with first dose by the end of the month.

Careful! He'll be using the HSE metric of percentage of adults vaccinated. I'm using percentage of population, which is internationally comparable.

edit: you can translate between the two using the 0.8 multiplier. So 43% of adults = 34.5% of population, and conversely 54% of population = 67.5% of adults. So if you're tracking the HSE metric, the happy place is 65-70% of adults vaccinated.

questionmark?

Lumen wrote: »

Careful! He'll be using the HSE metric of percentage of adults vaccinated. I'm using percentage of population, which is internationally comparable.

Probably figure for those aged 16+ who are eligible to get a vaccine. If they hit 82% of 16+ by end of June I couldn't give a flying fiddlers what stats are used somewhere else tbh.

eoinbn

Skygord wrote: »

I'm disappointed that we're still waiting for Curevac to apply for EMA approval. Last I read was expected submission in mid-late May.

Anyone seen anything lately about when they might submit?

Still the same. We should see the results in the next few weeks. Reading between the lines the results won't be stellar. Don't expect it to be used until Q3 and don't expect it in large quantities until Q4.

Lumen

questionmark? wrote: »

Probably figure for those aged 16+ who are eligible to get a vaccine. If they hit 82% of 16+ by end of June I couldn't give a flying fiddlers what stats are used somewhere else tbh.

The stats used elsewhere are useful for predicting when we can safely withdraw restrictions without causing significant widespread outbreaks.

You know, if we wanted to formulate an actual plan for such a thing.

duffman13

eoinbn wrote: »

Moderna could be a major part of the supply in Q3. Hopefully they can increase supply in July but it might be August after they have finished their US commitments.

Curevac won't play much of a part. They cut their production again for Q3. Might be used as boosters later in the year but rumour has it that it has the least efficacy of the mRNA vaccines.

There is a bit of confidence in Moderna delivering good numbers in Q3. Their new filling line in Spain has come on stream at the beginning of this month and the impact of that should begin to be felt from probably mid June. Coupled with the production in the US beginning to rapidly out strip demand, I think Moderna will become the main vaccine for the 16-30s roughly when that grouping is being vaccinated

As you previously mentioned unless Pfizer is frontloading Q3 deliveries, most of July deliveries will be used for 2nd shots. I think June will be peak vaccination number wise

funnydoggy

Micky 32 wrote: »

Just thought i’d report back the morning after regarding side effects from my first dose of pfizer.

No side effects whatsoever. I feel physically fine. Just a little tender/sore on my arm. That’s it..

Love it

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

Just thought i’d report back the morning after regarding side effects from my first dose of pfizer.

No side effects whatsoever. I feel physically fine. Just a little tender/sore on my arm. That’s it..

The anti-vaxxers will add to to those gravely injured by the vaccine

Rebelbrowser

When do we expect to see appointments for the 49 years at MVCs starting to be sent out? Thought it might start today given some centres look like they will finish the 50s by Sunday evening...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

Not much. There isn't a single meaning of efficacy (against infection? ability to transmit? symptomatic disease? hospitalisation? death?), margins of error are high, variants and susceptibility are different in different populations and points in time, etc etc.

Since they all seem to be similarly effective against severe disease, the differences tend to focus on infection, which is mostly relevant for population-level effects (herd immunity), and the fastest and most robust way of achieving herd immunity is to vaccinate with all available vaccines as soon as possible.

To put it another way: the actual risk to you is a combination of the vaccine's effect on you, and the effect of all other vaccinations in the population. Like with masking, it doesn't matter so much that your mask is imperfect if others are wearing theirs too.

edit: sorry, this is really a question for the vaccine megathread. Must resist these tangents!

Thats not my understanding
If you are the only person in the world vaccinated,then the vaccine is still protecting you up to the level its supposed to

Van.Bosch

So if 46 register tomorrow and 45 on Sunday (officially) will they continue with 44-40 on Monday? They ran the 50 & 60’s directly but maybe a delay for 40s as larger?

silver2020

Van.Bosch wrote: »

So if 46 register tomorrow and 45 on Sunday (officially) will they continue with 44-40 on Monday? They ran the 50 & 60’s directly but maybe a delay for 40s as larger?

A 35 year old could register today, but won't be called until the relevant time. The age based registration is just to spread the load and also not have people expect too much.

I got jabbed today, just turned 52, wife is going tomorrow, she's a year younger, so the 49 will probably start Mon/Tues.

Looks like well in excess of 300,000 getting vaccinated his week ( remember those that scoffed that such a figure could be done!)

BTW, between parking, registration, vaccine and 15min waiting time, it took 32 minutes.

Wolf359f

duffman13 wrote: »

There is a bit of confidence in Moderna delivering good numbers in Q3. Their new filling line in Spain has come on stream at the beginning of this month and the impact of that should begin to be felt from probably mid June. Coupled with the production in the US beginning to rapidly out strip demand, I think Moderna will become the main vaccine for the 16-30s roughly when that grouping is being vaccinated

As you previously mentioned unless Pfizer is frontloading Q3 deliveries, most of July deliveries will be used for 2nd shots. I think June will be peak vaccination number wise

Ireland only opted in to the initial 80mil contract (952k pro rata I believe) we never took any options for the other 80mil. The other 300mil contract the EU signed in Feb, I'm not sure if we opted into that, but that 300mil won't be fufilled until Q4.

On the timeline, 35mil are due to be delivered by end of Q2 (665k pro rata) and they (moderna) are confident that will still be the case. So about 400k due June.
Kicker is, the next 35mil will be delivered starting Q3 in tandem with the 80mil we opted out of

Van.Bosch

silver2020 wrote: »

A 35 year old could register today, but won't be called until the relevant time. The age based registration is just to spread the load and also not have people expect too much.

I got jabbed today, just turned 52, wife is going tomorrow, she's a year younger, so the 49 will probably start Mon/Tues.

Looks like well in excess of 300,000 getting vaccinated his week ( remember those that scoffed that such a figure could be done!)

BTW, between parking, registration, vaccine and 15min waiting time, it took 32 minutes.

A 35 year old can’t register today - it allows anyone over 45 but won’t process with year of births later 1976.

Lumen

Marine Layer wrote: »

Thats not my understanding
If you are the only person in the world vaccinated,then the vaccine is still protecting you up to the level its supposed to

There is no "level it's supposed to", unless you mean the thresold of efficacy for approval, which all the approved vaccines have met, by definition. The efficacy numbers from the trials, which were conducted amongst different populations with different variants in circulation, are not comparable.

All the approved vaccines protect against disease, hospitalisation and death.

snotboogie

With the exception of Bulgaria all EU countries now have over 30 per 100 vaccinated. 7 have over 50 per 100 vaccinated and Malta have over 100 per 100 vaccinated. Malta are now down to 6 cases per million per day average. It really shows that by far the most important number is the vaccines per 100 of the population. Case numbers are secondary unless we see huge swings as cases will drop with vaccination. Hopefully Ireland will start reporting vaccine numbers again soon.

Sky King

snotboogie wrote: »

. Hopefully Ireland will start reporting vaccine numbers again soon.

Big time, I enjoyed following the progress every day, sad and all as that is!

silver2020

Van.Bosch wrote: »

A 35 year old can’t register today - it allows anyone over 45 but won’t process with year of births later 1976.

seems they corrected that - I added my details when they were calling 60-65 group, but made no difference to the appointment time

silver2020

snotboogie wrote: »

With the exception of Bulgaria all EU countries now have over 30 per 100 vaccinated. 7 have over 50 per 100 vaccinated and Malta have over 100 per 100 vaccinated. Malta are now down to 6 cases per million per day average. It really shows that by far the most important number is the vaccines per 100 of the population. Case numbers are secondary unless we see huge swings as cases will drop with vaccination. Hopefully Ireland will start reporting vaccine numbers again soon.

statistics statistics

That information does not give breakdown between 1st & 2nd dose, so you will see 100+ / 100 soon.

Based on the estimated 250,000 administered between 11th & 18th, Ireland would be at a figure of 46/100 if comparing on a same date basis

snotboogie

silver2020 wrote: »

statistics statistics

That information does not give breakdown between 1st & 2nd dose, so you will see 100+ / 100 soon.

Based on the estimated 250,000 administered between 11th & 18th, Ireland would be at a figure of 46/100 if comparing on a same date basis

Malta are actually at 101 already. Israel are at 120. Obviously with 2 doses you need to get well over 100 for elimination

eoinbn

Wolf359f wrote: »

Ireland only opted in to the initial 80mil contract (952k pro rata I believe) we never took any options for the other 80mil. The other 300mil contract the EU signed in Feb, I'm not sure if we opted into that, but that 300mil won't be fufilled until Q4.

On the timeline, 35mil are due to be delivered by end of Q2 (665k pro rata) and they (moderna) are confident that will still be the case. So about 400k due June.
Kicker is, the next 35mil will be delivered starting Q3 in tandem with the 80mil we opted out of

Was that confirmed that we opted out of the extra 80m? I did see reports from other countries suggesting we did. If it is true then heads should roll...
People could still be waiting for a first dose come September. If that happens and we turned down 880k vaccines then there will be uproar.

bodhrandude

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

When do we expect to see appointments for the 49 years at MVCs starting to be sent out? Thought it might start today given some centres look like they will finish the 50s by Sunday evening...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

In the Electric Picnic thread some were saying after registering it was up to 3 to 5 days when you would get vaccine notification in Galway anyway, so it seems to have picked up there.