Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Micky 32

TomOnBoard wrote: »

My response was a challenge to your categorical statements that "Coronavirus is nothing like the flu, mutates much slower. Thus, vaccinations don't need to be annual.". There is no evidence for your comment that it " mutates much slower". Within a year, we've had a number of such mutations, and there are likely to be others out there, particularly in countries that have limited access to vaccines, that have not been identified yet. Thus far, the current vaccines appear to remain effective against the known variants, although the French ones are still somewhat of an unknown quantity. At any time, that could change, hence my observation that we are unlikely to get a 3-year window as you suggest.

You may well be right, though and I hope you are. But there's so much about this that we don't know, so a strategy that hopes for the best while planning for the worst would appear to me to be mosr appropriate.

So what would your idea be for planning for the worst?

I have been reading a lot of info about mutations etc and it seems a lot of experts think that this virus can’t mutate too much or it would lose it’s functionality. They are confident Vaccines will always be a step ahead of it.

VonLuck

Deeper Blue wrote: »

The big bad variants are so effective at evading the vaccines that 0.008% of 66 million vaccinated people in the US got infected, with just 7% of those ending up in hospital.

We're doomed guys

Whilst 0.008% is a tiny percentage, I'm surprised that the hospitalisation from that cohort is as high as 7%. Is there a suggestion that if you're vaccinated and get infected that it's likely to be a more severe dose?

Van.Bosch

is_that_so wrote: »

People only have one age! Cohort 2 was under HSE control and subject to change.

The portal allows registrations of 65-69 year olds, they requested just 69 today but under 69s can register. I don’t think it means they will get appointments any earlier but they can register their interest.

Furze99

is_that_so wrote: »

Nobody can choose their vaccine, that's a HSE call. Most people seem happy to take what they are offered. A national programme can't wait for people to make up their minds and it needs to move on to the next person. If people don't want it now when might they want it?

It's perfectly possible for the HSE to have the portal, get people to register and have a tick box for this Astra Zennica vaccine. Send out appointments for these people and deal with all others on age related basis when alternative stocks come in. That is not rocket science. You get people registered saying yes, they will take a vaccine and here are my details. Sorting them into two categories afterwards is easy.

Threatening 400K citizens who might qualms over this Astra Zennica vaccine with going to the end of the queue is not good politics. In fact it's plain stupid politics, remember this is an age cohort who are inclined to vote. FG seem intent lately with antagonising the electorate, have they lost their political noses?

is_that_so

Van.Bosch wrote: »

The portal allows registrations of 65-69 year olds, they requested just 69 today but under 69s can register. I don’t think it means they will get appointments any earlier but they can register their interest.

Yeah, but the 69 year olds group is a defined size. The poster was comparing it to Group 2, which kept growing.

Polar101

Finland has been keeping stats on infections in vaccinated people.

1.25 million people vaccinated (1st dose)
- 781 infections reported (= 0.06% breakthrough infections)
- 45 of those hospitalised (0.0036% of total, or 5.76% of those who were infected)
- 4 ended in ICU
- death number is unknown

So 99.94% of the vaccinated people didn't get Covid (so far, obviously). Hospitalisation rate seems very low as well, considering this includes the most vulnerable part of the population.

Micky 32

Nursing homes doing well in Scotland:


https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1382761742997061637?s=21

is_that_so

Furze99 wrote: »

It's perfectly possible for the HSE to have the portal, get people to register and have a tick box for this Astra Zennica vaccine. Send out appointments for these people and deal with all others on age related basis when alternative stocks come in. That is not rocket science. You get people registered saying yes, they will take a vaccine and here are my details. Sorting them into two categories afterwards is easy.

Threatening 400K citizens who might qualms over this Astra Zennica vaccine with going to the end of the queue is not good politics. In fact it's plain stupid politics, remember this is an age cohort who are inclined to vote. FG seem intent lately with antagonising the electorate, have they lost their political noses?

At least 26,000 say yes already. It's been HSE policy all along: nobody chooses their vaccines and you'll have to wait if you don't take what's offered. You can't run a national programme based on personal whims.

timsey tiger

Micky 32 wrote: »

Lol It’s very predictable the posters that usually reply. So you’re ok with a re reg coming on just to specially attack positive posts? That figures :rolleyes:

Whatever. I said nothing about the rereg. As usual, with you 2+2 = 5.

TomOnBoard

Micky 32 wrote: »

So what would your idea be for planning for the worst?

Off the top of my head:

1. Ensure that vaccination is made available to 2nd/3rd World countries ASAP to remove the host population in which the virus can mutate;
2. Incorporate Lateral Flow Testing into everyday life for the forseeable future, to ensure any flare-ups are dealt with immediately;
3. Ensure that all vaccine manufacturers conduct regular re-design and re-engineering of their vaccines, incorporating feedback loops that assess new variants for evasion potential;
4. Focus on treatments for illness caused by Covid and similar viruses, with international funding of research efforts that avoid patent and intellectual property barriers to information/knowledge -sharing;
5. Develop improved protective equipment and systems on public transport, in hospitals etc.
6. Develop improved personal protective products for individuals, such as masks, nasal pH reduction/virus blocking products, home air cleaning equipment etc.
7. Plan adequate clean air / ventilation/virus control systems into all new buildings;
...
...
There's a few for you.. I'm sure we can all think of more ways we can improve things so that we don't get caught out like we were a year ago..

Degag

VonLuck wrote: »

Whilst 0.008% is a tiny percentage, I'm surprised that the hospitalisation from that cohort is as high as 7%. Is there a suggestion that if you're vaccinated and get infected that it's likely to be a more severe dose?

I don't know but it's <6 people per million by my calculations.

Unfortunate for those people but very acceptable on an overall scale.

Micky 32

timsey tiger wrote: »

Whatever. I said nothing about the rereg. As usual, with you 2+2 = 5.

No, you qouted my post about the re reg. :rolleyes:

Strazdas

Polar101 wrote: »

Finland has been keeping stats on infections in vaccinated people.

1.25 million people vaccinated (1st dose)
- 781 infections reported (= 0.06% breakthrough infections)
- 45 of those hospitalised (0.0036% of total, or 5.76% of those who were infected)
- 4 ended in ICU
- death number is unknown

So 99.94% of the vaccinated people didn't get Covid (so far, obviously). Hospitalisation rate seems very low as well, considering this includes the most vulnerable part of the population.

Very encouraging - we could be in good shape by the middle of summer.

Furze99

Furze99 wrote: »

It's perfectly possible for the HSE to have the portal, get people to register and have a tick box for this Astra Zennica vaccine. Send out appointments for these people and deal with all others on age related basis when alternative stocks come in. That is not rocket science. You get people registered saying yes, they will take a vaccine and here are my details. Sorting them into two categories afterwards is easy.

Threatening 400K citizens who might qualms over this Astra Zennica vaccine with going to the end of the queue is not good politics. In fact it's plain stupid politics, remember this is an age cohort who are inclined to vote. FG seem intent lately with antagonising the electorate, have they lost their political noses?

The clotting issue is affecting younger people, mostly under 50s. Covid is much more dangerous for older people.

Why do you think you are at risk from AZ? The clotting issue doesn't affect your age group.

Why do you want a younger person, who has a higher risk of clotting and a relatively low risk from covid, to take AZ instead of you?

You should watch the NIAC briefing.

JTMan

FT article says CureVac hoping for "May or June" for approval. With a bit of luck, we might have some CureVac vaccines in June.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1382763207782244358?s=19

Cork2021

JTMan wrote: »

FT article says CureVac hoping for "May or June" for approval. With a bit of luck, we might have some CureVac vaccines in June.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1382763207782244358?s=19

Any idea to what’s already produced ready to go?

Miike

TomOnBoard wrote: »

My response was a challenge to your categorical statements that "Coronavirus is nothing like the flu, mutates much slower. Thus, vaccinations don't need to be annual.". There is no evidence for your comment that it " mutates much slower". Within a year, we've had a number of such mutations, and there are likely to be others out there, particularly in countries that have limited access to vaccines, that have not been identified yet. Thus far, the current vaccines appear to remain effective against the known variants, although the French ones are still somewhat of an unknown quantity. At any time, that could change, hence my observation that we are unlikely to get a 3-year window as you suggest.

You may well be right, though and I hope you are. But there's so much about this that we don't know, so a strategy that hopes for the best while planning for the worst would appear to me to be mosr appropriate.

We know that SARS-CoV-2 doesn't mutate at the same rate as influenza viruses because there is proof reading mechanisms in SARS-CoV-2 that don't exist in influenza. That doesn't mean it doesn't mutate at all, just at a lesser rate compared with flu viruses.

EG: Antigenic shift is a major problem with influenza viruses. Whereby the RNA is made up of genome segments that can undergo reassortment. SARS-CoV-2's genome is not made up of segments and doens't really reassort but it can recombine with a different strain/variant

More info because I'm half asleep: https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/disease-understanding/the-natural-evolution-of-sars-cov-2.html


To change gear a bit; I'm involved in a piece of research where participants are also the age being targeted by current vaccination cohorts. Having met with them today was a real joy. I'm on a high from hearing how happy they are to get vaccination appointments

PhilOssophy

Health11 wrote: »

Hello, I am a healthcare worker who missed the portal deadline on March 26th. What do i do now to get a vaccine?

Ring the Beacon hospital. Ask for Cichael Mullen....

noserider

When can the 30-40 age group expect to receive a vaccine?
Not asking for a friend, purely selfish concern!

eoinbn

noserider wrote: »

When can the 30-40 age group expect to receive a vaccine?
Not asking for a friend, purely selfish concern!

Late June, early July.

stephenjmcd

noserider wrote: »

When can the 30-40 age group expect to receive a vaccine?
Not asking for a friend, purely selfish concern!

Mid June or there abouts would be my guess.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mid June or there abouts would be my guess.

Paul Reid has been reported as saying they won't be starting general population under 60 until June. I'm not sure he knows what's going on half the time though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-60s-must-wait-until-june-for-covid-19-vaccination-says-hse-1.4538488

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mid June or there abouts would be my guess.

That would be a good guess, perhaps even sooner.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Paul Reid has been reported as saying they won't be starting general population under 60 until June. I'm not sure he knows what's going on half the time though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-60s-must-wait-until-june-for-covid-19-vaccination-says-hse-1.4538488

There has to be some mistake there : there are only 400,000 60 to 69 year olds and June is six weeks away.

Also, the under sixties won't even be vaccinated with AZ, so there is no question of waiting until the over 60s are finished.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Paul Reid has been reported as saying they won't be starting general population under 60 until June. I'm not sure he knows what's going on half the time though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-60s-must-wait-until-june-for-covid-19-vaccination-says-hse-1.4538488

As per usual with Paul Reid I'd suspect his numbers might be a bit off there or he's mis spoken.

I fail to see how you can hit 80% first dose by end of June if he plans on a June start of the u60s.

Anyway this is all very fluid. We should hear on J&J next week which will mean another change to their plan in some form.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

There has to be some mistake there : there are only 400,000 60 to 69 year olds and June is six weeks away.

Also, the under sixties won't even be vaccinated with AZ, so there is no question of waiting until the over 60s are finished.

He's probably looking at first and second dose requirements of Pfizer and Moderna for groups 3-7. That will eat up a fair bit of supply from April and May deliveries. It is really June before the numbers jump significantly.

snotboogie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He's probably looking at first and second dose requirements of Pfizer and Moderna for groups 3-7. That will eat up a fair bit of supply from April and May deliveries. It is really June before the numbers jump significantly.

How many vaccines would be needed to get 80% of the adult population at least one shot? There would be millions to make up over 4 and half weeks if we only start the under 60's in June.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

He's probably looking at first and second dose requirements of Pfizer and Moderna for groups 3-7. That will eat up a fair bit of supply from April and May deliveries. It is really June before the numbers jump significantly.

Possibly, but it seems hard to believe that nobody healthy and in their 50s will receive a vaccine in May.

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

How many vaccines would be needed to get 80% of the adult population at least one shot? There would be millions to make up over 4 and half weeks if we only start the under 60's in June.

I think that might be the plan. Priority groups 1-8 plus the over 60's is around 1.6m people. So that's 40% of so of the adult population, with the aim I think to have them all at least first dosed by late May. Then from early June you aim for up to 400k a week and if 75% of this is first doses you might get close to the target.

Personally I don't think they'll hit the target, if we get to 70% I think that would be decent.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Possibly, but it seems hard to believe that nobody healthy and in their 50s will receive a vaccine in May.

Depends on group 7 I think (due to start in May), that might be smaller than expected as many have ended up in group 4.