Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Russman

Has anyone come up with a revised guesstimate of when the lower age cohorts might start ? Like say the 50s might be XX May, the 40s YY May, etc etc
I know Paul Reid mentioned the under 60s won’t start til June but surely that can’t be right if they think they’ll reach 80% first doses by end of June ?

Happydays2020

vienne86 wrote: »

He didn't say anything about anything except Thursday's figures, so I should see where the manipulation is.

Well selectively quoting the high vaccine days is disingenuous at best. We need to see high average rates.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

Has anyone come up with a revised guesstimate of when the lower age cohorts might start ? Like say the 50s might be XX May, the 40s YY May, etc etc
I know Paul Reid mentioned the under 60s won’t start til June but surely that can’t be right if they think they’ll reach 80% first doses by end of June ?

I can't understand why the under 60s would need to wait until the over 60s are finished. We already know that they will be receiving a completely different vaccine (i.e. not AZ), therefore there is no reason whatsoever the two age cohorts couldn't overlap.

GazzaL

I'm sick of people talking about different bull**** variants. There are variants of influenza every ****ing year and nobody bats an eyelid. The vaccines are adapted and everyone gets on with life. Unless you're high risk, e.g. elderly or obese, you will most likely be fine without the vaccine.

Wolf359f

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well selectively quoting the high vaccine days is disingenuous at best. We need to see high average rates.

He quoted the highest daily figure so far for vaccines administered, would you prefer the didn't give us hope? Would you prefer he only tweeted the lowest days?
It's also the highest 7 day average so far.
Don't be so negative ffs!

Charles Babbage

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well selectively quoting the high vaccine days is disingenuous at best. We need to see high average rates.

We need to see a big step up this week if we are going anywhere.

We should have
> 70 year olds getting first and second jabs,
the 68-69 year olds
the <60 people with vulnerabilities

Wolf359f

GazzaL wrote: »

I'm sick of people talking about different bull**** variants. There are variants of influenza every ****ing year and nobody bats an eyelid. The vaccines are adapted and everyone gets on with life. Unless you're high risk, e.g. elderly or obese, you will most likely be fine without the vaccine.

My understating and I'm completely a noob to this.
We have certain immunity to previous influenza, so we have some baseline protection. Hence why it's not as serious as Covid.
Once we get a high vaccination figure, any new variants will not be a novel virus and we will have some baseline immunity from them. So in essence it will be a hell of a lot less serious?
The booster they refer to will be akin to the yearly flu jab.

Happydays2020

Wolf359f wrote: »

He quoted the highest daily figure so far for vaccines administered, would you prefer the didn't give us hope? Would you prefer he only tweeted the lowest days?
It's also the highest 7 day average so far.
Don't be so negative ffs!

He quoted the 1 April figures and then nearly 3 weeks later we get this. We separately fine he wants to change the order again.

Wolf359f

Happydays2020 wrote: »

He quoted the 1 April figures and then nearly 3 weeks later we get this. We separately fine he wants to change the order again.

He's the health minster, if he wanted to change the order, he can change the order. He doesn't need permission to ffs. That aside, he's not misrepresenting the figures, he tweeted the numbers for a certain day and that's the numbers. If you have issues with the health minster tweeting vaccine figures for the highest day so far, that's on you. He tweets every day, hes looking for attention, he doesn't tweet, hes hiding a failure. Can't win.

And I do not like him, hes an awful health minister, I don't have anything positive to say about him at all.

Wolf359f

godzilla89 wrote: »

I would honestly just love to see a proper mass scale challenge trial done by some country and no more of these daily headlines that are either negative or positive, it's tiring at this stage as I know we will have a variant one doing the opposite tomorrow and be negative.

Do the challenge trial, put Covid in the air, infect thousands of young people, give us the results of each vaccine, spare us all these conversations on here on efficacy and effectiveness.

UK were supposed to do one ages ago and all has gone quiet.

Suprised no country or no pharma company has done one, because even the Pfizer trial isn't great reading in terms of exposure to the virus ,only 170 in the trial actually had covid, 10 severe cases in the whole trial, 9 in placebo and doesn't even say if anyone even ended up in ICU out of those 10

99.20% had no covid in placebo and 99.96% in vaccine group

Oddly enough the amount of people that needed medical treatment in the placebo group and vaccinated group was similar, 9 had severe covid in placebo and 4 needed medical treatment for bells palsy, 1 severe covid in vaccine group and then it lists below, which I'm guessing needed medical treatment as well and favours the placebo in terms of severe adverse reactions

0.6% severe adverse reactions in vaccine ( 130 people based on 21720 trialists)

0.5% severe adverse reactions in placebo ( 110 people based on 21728 trialists )

What I am getting at is none of the trials had enough people exposed to the virua which a challenge trial would do

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-publication-results-landmark

It's mainly the media, you will not change that.
Do a large scale trial conducted scientifically, groove X vaccine protected 9,999 patients and 1 got symptoms. Media comments saying vaccine X has a breakthrough variant (that's technically correct, they all breakthrough to some degree) Media announces nearly 1mil at risk of new super variant (that's again correct)

Scientists follow science.
Judges follow law.
Media follow clicks, that will never change!

Wolf359f

godzilla89 wrote: »

Why didn't they make those pan vaccines first?

Only targeting the spike protein vaccines and leaving other methods of infection like the N was only inviting trouble?

Yeah they should have waited a few years before releasing a covid vaccine?
Yeah it's good now, we can save millions of lives, but we'll wait a few years to make sure it's the best!
Or release one that works right now and then when they have time, focus on future issues.

Corholio

godzilla89 wrote: »

Why didn't they make those pan vaccines first?

Only targeting the spike protein vaccines and leaving other methods of infection like the N was only inviting trouble?

I'm sure there's a lot more to it than that, even though we've all learned a lot about viruses this past year that 99% of us wouldn't have known before, the majority of us still don't know an awful lot, I'm including myself in that too.

Wolf359f

godzilla89 wrote: »

No offence but I wanted a scientific answer, not your opinion.

You're only going to get opinions on here, this is not a ****ing science forum.
What the hell are you expecting?

Wolf359f

godzilla89 wrote: »

All true, but I still think we need that challenge trial to learn more about the virus and how it infects, nearly 18 months in and still so many unanswered questions.

Can you get it from surfaces, is it airborne, is it droplets, do truly asymptomatic spread it and how, who have natural immunity, who don't, do blood markers tell us anything about who can be immune or not, can some infected not infect others, is superspreaders common, list is endless.

Yes it can be contracted from surfaces
Yes it can be airbourne
Yes it's in droplets
Yes asymptomatic spreads it
No idea - consultant an expert
No idea - consultant an expert
No idea - consultant an expert
No idea what that one means.
Define common?
If you couldn't answer at least one of those yourself, then no wonder you need scientific help!

lucernarian

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're only going to get opinions on here, this is not a ****ing science forum.
What the hell are you expecting?

I kinda wish it was tbh, this thread used to be a good place for discussion before it was dragged into the gutter by merged threads and other unwise decisions

IRISHSPORTSGUY

What a jump on the week of April 26th!

https://twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1383385759059644419

Lumen

godzilla89 wrote: »

Do the challenge trial, put Covid in the air, infect thousands of young people, give us the results of each vaccine, spare us all these conversations on here on efficacy and effectiveness.

You're referring to a type of human challenge study. A company in the UK is planning to run one, although not as irresponsibly as you're suggesting.

https://www.openorphan.com/human-challenge-programme

The ethics are problematic, given that COVID is a multi organ disease with a high incidence even in young adults and children. The long term effects are unknown, and there is no standardized treatment plan for long COVID.

josip

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're only going to get opinions on here, this is not a ****ing science forum.
What the hell are you expecting?

On the contrary Wolf, up to about a week ago, this thread was a very good source of factual answers, explanations and clarifications from people who actually knew there stuff, some of whom obviously worked in the field.

Cork2021

Rachel Lavin with some great insight to the vaccine rollout this morning! June is going to be huge with or without J&J and I reckon an 8 week interval will happen for Pfizer and moderna, 12 weeks will push it out too far! But hoping that J&J will be on board for anyone who wants it and the same with AZ leftovers. We need to be able to sign a waiver and take responsibility ourselves!

https://www.businesspost.ie/coronavirus/how-the-covid-19-vaccine-plan-could-still-deliver-690a673f

Godot.

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

What a jump on the week of April 26th!

https://twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1383385759059644419

Pro rata that's about 320k doses for us on the week of the 26th. Pfizer/BioNTech have been amazing.

Russman

Without necessarily disagreeing with the sentiment Cork, there’s no way a waiver happens imo. It’s just not the way medicine works.
The extra Pfizer doses takes most of the hurt out of the AZ issue, and the big deliveries of J&J were never due to happen until June anyway. I think at most we’ll lose a week or two in the rollout, which I suspect was always conservative with a bit of slippage built in.

stephenjmcd

Godot. wrote: »

Pro rata that's about 320k doses for us on the week of the 26th. Pfizer/BioNTech have been amazing.

Some jump again there at the end of May as well

stephenjmcd

Cork2021 wrote: »

Rachel Lavin with some great insight to the vaccine rollout this morning! June is going to be huge with or without J&J and I reckon an 8 week interval will happen for Pfizer and moderna, 12 weeks will push it out too far! But hoping that J&J will be on board for anyone who wants it and the same with AZ leftovers. We need to be able to sign a waiver and take responsibility ourselves!

https://www.businesspost.ie/coronavirus/how-the-covid-19-vaccine-plan-could-still-deliver-690a673f

The wavier idea is dead in the water. They said no towards the end of the week.

As for the interval it's still being looked into but at their meeting on Thursday, NIAC also said no to extending the interval. Only expected to look at it again when more younger ages are being vaccinated

Russman

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Some jump again there at the end of May as well

Massive alright. June should be spectacular for numbers.

Also looks like in or around 150k Pfizer doses alone per week in early May. They’re turning into some workhorse !

stephenjmcd

Good numbers for Friday given the nightmare week with AZ

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1383717447069433858?s=19

Van.Bosch

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Good numbers for Friday given the nightmare week with AZ

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1383717447069433858?s=19

Yeah - with the MVCs opening for 65-69 on Tuesday the numbers might hit 40,000+ per day

1huge1

Anyone know why there is still c. 24k of people in Cohort 1 due to receive their 2nd dose? It should be 4 weeks after the first dose but its been stuck on this number for over a month.

PhilOssophy

Lots of people on here blame the media for "creating hysteria" - the same people are completely overreacting to what was (possibly) a throw away comment by Stephen Donnelly.
I also think people are twisting the "age is the only thing that matters" to the nth degree - while somebody in their 50s is x times more likely to die of covid than somebody in their 20s, the risk to either (assuming they have no underlying medical conditions) is very very low. So just because somebody in their 50s is 20x more likely to die from it, the risk to them is also very low.
Age is critical but below a certain age, the risk of death to anybody is very very low. The median age of death from covid is something like 80 after all.
I have ran a couple of projects in my time in work and its not unheard of throughout a project for a "what if" scenario to be mentioned, considered and disregarded. I am amazed that people are so worked up about this one - and I suspect the Irish Times and other media outlets hit the jackpot on the clicks on this story.
We can all make a Fr Ted "I should get the parachute" style argument for why we should get it before somebody else.
Back to the vaccines, I have heard of numerous people in their 60s who were contacted by their GP last week to come in for their vaccine - it is absolutely fantastic to see next to zero waste on the vaccine front, and that they are going into worthy arms (i.e. ordinary Joe's) rather than friends and colleagues of the CEO.

Bubbaclaus

1huge1 wrote: »

Anyone know why there is still c. 24k of people in Cohort 1 due to receive their 2nd dose? It should be 4 weeks after the first dose but its been stuck on this number for over a month.

That would be the healthcare workers that work in nursing homes that got AZ.

1huge1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Good numbers for Friday given the nightmare week with AZ

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1383717447069433858?s=19

Yup, good to see and pretty much all Pfizer, they must have quite a stockpile of AZ at this stage, lets hope they can go through it quickly.