Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well when they took the decision with AZ it was on the basis of having 3 other vaccines so it's a slightly different context when looking at J&J now.

I'd say they might put an age limit but not as extreme as 60.

I'd be happy enough with 50+

Would give us 600,000 doses to fully vaccinate people in that bracket

Knowing our luck though it will prob be higher than 50

VG31

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"neither have symptoms of any sort,”

Vaccines doing what vaccines do

I'd question whether if you're vaccinated and test positive with no symptoms it should even be recorded as a case.

Godot.

Ridiculous if the NIAC put age restrictions on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The risks are tiny and a lot more people will die if they don't receive the vaccine on time. Not to mention the huge damage restrictions are doing to the economy.

KrustyUCC

NIAC will put some age restriction on J&J

Just remains to be seen how restrictive that age bracket is

seamus

Knex* wrote: »

Another 5-6 weeks to give everyone over 60 one dose?

I naively thought we'd ramp up to get it done a little quicker than that. Have you average daily totals that you're using to estimate that?

Just looking at it myself now. There's 417k in this cohort, 6 weeks is 42 days. That's an average of around 9k a day, not even accounting for those already jabbed.

I'd be hoping to half that time, even accounting for 2nd doses of previous cohorts. Am I way off?

Sorry, missed this.

Basically yeah, about 9-10k a day sounds right. Assuming supply stays on-stream we theoretically have enough to do about 100k doses per week. Which would mean we'd be finished mid-May.

Realistically that's unlikely. Not only the supply issue, but the fact that we're doing other vaccines too, not just AZ. I don't see AZ making up 66% of the rollout for the next 4 weeks, not even 50% of it.

So I modelled 50,000 doses a week as the pessimistic rollout for AZ. Which gives an end date of mid-June to finish dose 1.

So, split the difference, gives us end of May, with ~75k AZ doses a week.

I'm sure with a bit more effort I could factor in ramp-ups, but it's a lot of work for very little extra gain. I'm not a civil servant in the dept of health trying to produce accurate estimates

Strazdas

AdamD wrote: »

If they recommend it for over 60s its borderline useless for our rollout. Even moving it to over 50s would make a huge difference

Not necessarily - it could speed up the vaccination of all over 60s considerably.

But we don't know yet what their thinking is on this and who they intend giving it to.

Geuze

BigMo1 wrote: »

This shouldn't be news. Of course there's going to be some instances of vaccinated people testing positive, it's not 100% effective.

All stories like this achieve is damage to the vaccine programme.

Yes, these vaccines prevent sickness, they do not prevent infection.

If you have been vaccinated, and are then somehow exposed to coronavirus, and there is nothing stopping the spread of the virus, then you could be infected.

The vaccine should have triggered an immune response, so the immune system is ready for the incoming virus.

You acquire the coronavirus, but you do not develop COVID.

Le Bruise

pgj2015 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/news/two-fully-vaccinated-nursing-home-staff-test-positive-for-covid-19-40334239.html

That headline is very annoying. A certain cohort won't read the article and come away saying (and spreading to others), what's the point of the vaccine if I can still get COVID?

'Two Nursing home staff protected from getting ill from COVID by vaccines' would have been better....but that ain't gonna get the clicks!

sd1999

I honestly just hope it doesn't take NIAC as long to decide on J&J as it did with AZ.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

The bulk of J&J won't be coming in until the start of June. What happens if we're near finished the age brackets of people that the vaccine can be used on by then? Would be an absolutely ridiculous situation to have hundreds of thousands of vaccines we can't use.

Infernal Racket

RTE news : EMA: Benefits of J&J Covid-19 vaccine outweigh risks

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0420/1211016-johnson-johnson/

This is excellent news

Strazdas

sd1999 wrote: »

I honestly just hope it doesn't take NIAC as long to decide on J&J as it did with AZ.

Well the good news is the EMA ruled very quickly. The start of the initial rollout of the vaccine was barely held up at all.

josip

AdamD wrote: »

If they recommend it for over 60s its borderline useless for our rollout. Even moving it to over 50s would make a huge difference

I think reality and practicality will dictate that it's available for at least over 50s.
Having an incidence many times lower than AZ means that the risk-benefit cut off age will be lower anyway.
NIAC will be able to choose a lower age than 60 and defend the reasoning.

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

NIAC will put some age restriction on J&J

Just remains to be seen how restrictive that age bracket is

Would actually be a reasonable idea - limit it to over 50's. Then as soon as over 70's are done the 60-49, 50-59 and under 50's will be going on in parallel

iamwhoiam

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would actually be a reasonable idea - limit it to over 50's. Then as soon as over 70's are done the 60-49, 50-59 and under 50's will be going on in parallel

Group 7 will be done first I imagine they are next in line

lbj666

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well when they took the decision with AZ it was on the basis of having 3 other vaccines so it's a slightly different context when looking at J&J now.

I'd say they might put an age limit but not as extreme as 60.

One dose is also a mitigating factor aswell compared to AZ aswell.
Wont be any surprises from EMA , similar verdict they gave for AZ but maybe more reassuring in tone. Be up to NIAC.

Like i said at the weekend any age limit will lead to complications with rollout because the bulk of J&J is coming in June and July, dont want a situation where there isnt enough cohorts to give it to by then.

EmmetSpiceland

Great news. The “one shot” jab will be a real boon in vaccinating, the more, vulnerable groups.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Would actually be a reasonable idea - limit it to over 50's. Then as soon as over 70's are done the 60-49, 50-59 and under 50's will be going on in parallel

You would think Pfizer and Moderna would be used on over 50s as well? There wouldn't be enough J & J available in the short term to vaccinate them.

stephenjmcd

AZ have told HSE in the last 48hrs of changes to delivery schedule.

Personally can't see it having too much of an impact given the already limited use.

https://twitter.com/JackHoJo/status/1384522478999965698?s=19

Turtwig

Age restriction is inevitable now. May not happen properly until there are European cases.
Regardless this throws a big spanner into the works for single dosing vaccination of certain minority and vulnerable groups.

Lumen

The absolutely overwhelming advantage of J&J at an individual level is that you're considered fully vaccinated 2 weeks after the one shot (at least according to the CDC).

This is going to make it much, much more popular than AZ, even if the risks were the same.

Gael23

pgj2015 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/news/two-fully-vaccinated-nursing-home-staff-test-positive-for-covid-19-40334239.html

That nursing home was absolutely ravaged in the first wave so they are just making a story.

Fitz*

Ramp up going strong

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1384520738397376517

leahyl

From the RTE article: "Concerns over the vaccine and that made by AstraZeneca have dampened hopes that vaccines could offer a swift end to the pandemic."


Wouldn't say that....I'm still pretty hopeful anyway....people are still getting AZ and will be taking J&J also

Le Bruise

Le Bruise wrote: »

That headline is very annoying. A certain cohort won't read the article and come away saying (and spreading to others), what's the point of the vaccine if I can still get COVID?

'Two Nursing home staff protected from getting ill from COVID by vaccines' would have been better....but that ain't gonna get the clicks!

so you want to do what with the newspapers? so certain cohorts wont say what you think certain cohorts will say...

yes they have tested positive, Yes if the producers are to be believed, they have a 90 something chance of not getting sick or being hospitalized...However, they can carry and spread it but who cares as we head towards herd immunity it will be like carrying the cold sore virus but never having any cold sores

JTMan

Regarding timelines for the 12-15 year old vaccination programme ...

Local media in Israel recently said the vaccination of 12-15 year olds might start in May as soon as the FDA approves Pfizer-BionTech.

WSJ indicates that Israel will have completed giving the vaccine to all 12-15 year olds "by the summer".

Israel have an existing stock of vaccines ready to go.

In addition, Israel are launching an extensive program of testing is aiming to keep the virus under control in younger un-vaccinated children.

If Israel can vaccinate 12-15 year olds starting this in May, then surely the US can then too and surely we can give first doses in July?

stephenjmcd

200,000 vaccines due to be delivered this week, 200-250k due to be delivered next week according to HSE.

Note , this is vaccines delivering into the country

Lumen

The prospect of giving vaccines to children is terrifying. This idea will never catch on.

hynesie08

stephenjmcd wrote: »

200,000 vaccines due to be delivered this week, 200-250k due to be delivered next week according to HSE

Into ireland or into arms?

Turtwig

Lumen wrote: »

The prospect of giving vaccines to children is terrifying. This idea will never catch on.

Lots of children in cohorts 4 and 7 if you exclude the current age restrictions.