Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

muddypuppy

Chuck Noland wrote: »

So we only need to do circa 45,000 jabs a day for the rest of the month to meet that target?

About that. We have administered around 350.000 vaccines in April up to the 19th, so we'd need to give about 510.000 in 11 days, or a bit more than 46.000 jabs per day.

I think it's clear and understandable that we'll miss that target tho due to the issues with AZ and J&J. I think we'll hit around anywhere between 650.000-700.000 this month, and then hopefully ramp up from there (but I think it really depends on making a good use of AZ and J&J, since Pfizer deliveries are mostly the same in april/may/june).

Valhallapt

muddypuppy wrote: »

About that. We have administered around 350.000 vaccines in April up to the 19th, so we'd need to give about 510.000 in 11 days, or a bit more than 46.000 jabs per day.

I think it's clear and understandable that we'll miss that target tho due to the issues with AZ and J&J. I think we'll hit around anywhere between 650.000-700.000 this month, and then hopefully ramp up from there (but I think it really depends on making a good use of AZ and J&J, since Pfizer deliveries are mostly the same in april/may/june).

I reject the fact that it’s understandable. I do not understand it. We have enough vaccine in storage to hit those target numbers.

Lumen

Valhallapt wrote: »

We have enough vaccine in storage to hit those target numbers.

No we don't.

stephenjmcd

muddypuppy wrote: »

No, 860k was administered.

https://twitter.com/zaraking/status/1377654457140441089

Unfortunately that was revised not long after at the parliamentary party meetings in the days after. The initial expectation of deliveries was 929,000 which would be around 860k administered for sure, this then reduced & now is at 800k into country for the month.

See below

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/vaccine-delivery-for-april-revised-down-to-slightly-below-a-million-donnelly-says-1.4526163

And confirmed in the Dail.
https://www.thejournal.ie/vaccine-target-5398517-Apr2021/

"Earlier in the Dáil, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly said April’s vaccine doses would be revised down. Last night, he told his parliamentary party that 860,000 would be delivered in April."

There is confusion though as 1 thing gets said at government level and at party level and another by the HSE. The communication is poor, it needs 1 lead on communicating numbers.

Deliveries into country now expected at 800k as of yesterday following more messing around from AZ.

https://twitter.com/JackHoJo/status/1384522478999965698?s=20

Strazdas

muddypuppy wrote: »

About that. We have administered around 350.000 vaccines in April up to the 19th, so we'd need to give about 510.000 in 11 days, or a bit more than 46.000 jabs per day.

I think it's clear and understandable that we'll miss that target tho due to the issues with AZ and J&J. I think we'll hit around anywhere between 650.000-700.000 this month, and then hopefully ramp up from there (but I think it really depends on making a good use of AZ and J&J, since Pfizer deliveries are mostly the same in april/may/june).

Both AZ and J&J were suspended for periods during April so it's no surprise at all that targets for the month will be missed.

astrofool

Valhallapt wrote: »

I reject the fact that it’s understandable. I do not understand it. We have enough vaccine in storage to hit those target numbers.

We don't, our vaccines in stock are (remembering a lot of these have been administered but not showing in numbers yet):
Pfizer: 90,000 (20,000 or so will be held back for dose 2)
Moderna: 91,000 (half held back for dose 2, so maybe 30,000 available to use)
AZ: 145,000 (paused, unpaused, paused, now being administered to 60-69 at MVC so will be used up quickly causing problems next week due to delivery only being 9k)
J&J: 14400 waiting for approval

Godot.

We should hit the target if AZ's deliveries are just a delay this time rather than a permanent cutback (we'll get the doses promised on May 3rd apparently).

I'll fairly confident we'll hit the target as long as the government doesn't allow ridiculous restrictions on the J&J vaccine. That would be on them, they can't blame the EU or lack of supply (which they quite rightly could previously) for that.

stephenjmcd

Godot. wrote: »

We should hit the target if AZ's deliveries are just a delay this time rather than a permanent cutback (we'll get the doses promised on May 3rd apparently).

I'll fairly confident we'll hit the target as long as the government doesn't allow ridiculous restrictions on the J&J vaccine. That would be on them, they can't blame the EU or lack of supply (which they quite rightly could previously) for that.

AZ now have a habit of backloading in the month.

If they were any other company providing a product you'd cut them loose. Their ability to stick to anything near schedule is absolutely pathetic.

I'm just thankful for Pfizer & BioNTech, without them we'd be in a bad way.

snotboogie

muddypuppy wrote: »

About that. We have administered around 350.000 vaccines in April up to the 19th, so we'd need to give about 510.000 in 11 days, or a bit more than 46.000 jabs per day.

I think it's clear and understandable that we'll miss that target tho due to the issues with AZ and J&J. I think we'll hit around anywhere between 650.000-700.000 this month, and then hopefully ramp up from there (but I think it really depends on making a good use of AZ and J&J, since Pfizer deliveries are mostly the same in april/may/june).

700k seems extremely unlikely. Over the last 7 days we are averaginv 20k per day. Wed need that to jump to 32k per day to get to 700k. I think 600k for April is the best case scenario with about 550k most likely, possibly as low as 500k.

stephenjmcd

Israel offered pizza and beers. In Washington, joints for jabs

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1384870788902256640?s=20

funnydoggy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Israel offered pizza and beers. In Washington, joints for jabs

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1384870788902256640?s=20

We'll offer a meaningful summer :pac::p

PhoenixParker

snotboogie wrote: »

700k seems extremely unlikely. Over the last 7 days we are averaginv 20k per day. Wed need that to jump to 32k per day to get to 700k. I think 600k for April is the best case scenario with about 550k most likely, possibly as low as 500k.

We'll have a very good idea tomorrow from Tuesdays numbers. Judging by the comments on this thread about MVCs and appointments for the 65-69 year old group it's gonna be a bumper week this week anyway.

josip

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Taoiseach- He also clarified that the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) will meet tomorrow to consider the latest advice from the European Medicines Agency.

Why didn't NIAC meet last night. Why wait 48 hours later. Other countries in EU already have and made a decision.

I've a feeling they will wait until the FDA make a decision and will align with that.
I think the FDA might announce something on Friday.

wadacrack

Vaccine effect apparent in Chile in spite of conflicting media reports..

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1384878143308173313

Valhallapt

astrofool wrote: »

We don't, our vaccines in stock are (remembering a lot of these have been administered but not showing in numbers yet):
Pfizer: 90,000 (20,000 or so will be held back for dose 2)
Moderna: 91,000 (half held back for dose 2, so maybe 30,000 available to use)
AZ: 145,000 (paused, unpaused, paused, now being administered to 60-69 at MVC so will be used up quickly causing problems next week due to delivery only being 9k)
J&J: 14400 waiting for approval

Ok they are very different number from a post earlier in the thread. Is there anywhere reliable to get the numbers of vaccines in storage?

Lumen

Valhallapt wrote: »

Ok they are very different number from a post earlier in the thread. Is there anywhere reliable to get the numbers of vaccines in storage?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116958731&postcount=2836

Valhallapt

Lumen wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116958731&postcount=2836

OK so we have about 350K in fridges at the moment, less that i had believed.

Still too much, we really need to look at stretching out interval between doses.

muddypuppy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Unfortunately that was revised not long after at the parliamentary party meetings in the days after. The initial expectation of deliveries was 929,000 which would be around 860k administered for sure, this then reduced & now is at 800k into country for the month.

Fair enough, guess we'll have to live and see. Thanks for the links.

snotboogie wrote: »

700k seems extremely unlikely. Over the last 7 days we are averaginv 20k per day. Wed need that to jump to 32k per day to get to 700k. I think 600k for April is the best case scenario with about 550k most likely, possibly as low as 500k.

All in all I've chosen to stay very positive on the vaccines as for now (and the past few months) it's the only positive thing going on.
This week target is 140/160k vaccines, next week is 250k (the week goes into May, but only for the weekend, so most vaccines will be done in April). This week seems very doable, I actually think we'll probably end slightly over target. Then we only need 180k or so to get us above 700k.

To add: We just did a ~145k week with almost only pfizer, which has consistent deliveries, so I can't really see us going below that going forward - so I will be extremely disappointed if we don't surpass at least 600k.

finneys13

Looking for some advice. I am now based in Dublin, but due to previous employment, I have a NI NHS number so can get a Covid vaccine in Belfast next week (I am 35).

I had a mild case of Covid in early March, so immune for the short term anyway.

If I get the vaccine in NI, it will probably be an AZ, and I wait three months for the second one. If I wait and hope to get a Pfizer (or maybe J&J) in June in Dublin (if things go to plan), I wait one month for the second one (or not at all if J&J).

So I get the second vaccine in July, maybe August, either way. Should o go to Belfast or just stick to the HSE?

Lumen

finneys13 wrote: »

Looking for some advice. I am now based in Dublin, but due to previous employment, I have a NI NHS number so can get a Covid vaccine in Belfast next week (I am 35).

I had a mild case of Covid in early March, so immune for the short term anyway.

If I get the vaccine in NI, it will probably be an AZ, and I wait three months for the second one. If I wait and hope to get a Pfizer (or maybe J&J) in June in Dublin (if things go to plan), I wait one month for the second one (or not at all if J&J).

So I get the second vaccine in July, maybe August, either way. Should o go to Belfast or just stick to the HSE?

NHS number is not enough. AFAIK it is not possible to book a vaccination in NI without being registered with a NI GP practice.

I also have an NHS number but I've been out of the country so long they deregistered me from the practice and archived my files.

JDD

finneys13 wrote: »

Looking for some advice. I am now based in Dublin, but due to previous employment, I have a NI NHS number so can get a Covid vaccine in Belfast next week (I am 35).

I had a mild case of Covid in early March, so immune for the short term anyway.

If I get the vaccine in NI, it will probably be an AZ, and I wait three months for the second one. If I wait and hope to get a Pfizer (or maybe J&J) in June in Dublin (if things go to plan), I wait one month for the second one (or not at all if J&J).

So I get the second vaccine in July, maybe August, either way. Should o go to Belfast or just stick to the HSE?

I'd go with Belfast, if only for it being a sure thing.

Would there be any drawback to getting two different vaccinations? Perhaps the boffins on the thread would know that?

snotboogie

muddypuppy wrote: »

Fair enough, guess we'll have to live and see. Thanks for the links.



All in all I've chosen to stay very positive on the vaccines as for now (and the past few months) it's the only positive thing going on.
This week target is 140/160k vaccines, next week is 250k (the week goes into May, but only for the weekend, so most vaccines will be done in April). This week seems very doable, I actually think we'll probably end slightly over target. Then we only need 180k or so to get us above 700k.

To add: We just did a ~145k week with almost only pfizer, which has consistent deliveries, so I can't really see us going below that going forward - so I will be extremely disappointed if we don't surpass at least 600k.

250k per week would mean us averaging about 45k per weekday. I'll believe it when I see it.

frank8211

Lumen wrote: »

NHS number is not enough. AFAIK it is not possible to book a vaccination in NI without being registered with a NI GP practice.

I also have an NHS number but I've been out of the country so long they deregistered me from the practice and archived my files.

surely it would be possible to re register with an NI doctor

marno21

snotboogie wrote: »

250k per week would mean us averaging about 45k per weekday. I'll believe it when I see it.

We hit 34.6k and 32k last week with an unplanned AstraZeneca suspension.

That's before we invoke pharmacies and get the MVCs to full tilt.

I have no doubt we could do 250k per week in our stride.

snotboogie

marno21 wrote: »

We hit 34.6k and 32k last week with an unplanned AstraZeneca suspension.

That's before we invoke pharmacies and get the MVCs to full tilt.

I have no doubt we could do 250k per week in our stride.

Oh no doubt we'll do it at some stage, I just don't see us consistently hitting 45k for 5 days next week, when we have struggled to do 30k back to back so far. I'd love to be wrong

Bit cynical

I think we need to be very cautious about projected numbers of shots administered going forward. The general pattern seems to be that there's an initial number quoted in the prior month. This number is used to silence critics of EU procurement policy. The number is later reduced in the same prior month and then, when it becomes obvious that even the reduced target will not be met, the number is further shrunk during the current month.

Throughout the process officials pass the buck and no one is apparently ultimately responsible.

marno21

snotboogie wrote: »

Oh no doubt we'll do it at some stage, I just don't see us consistently hitting 45k for 5 days next week, when we have struggled to do 30k back to back so far. I'd love to be wrong

Ever the optimist, but I think we'll be pleasantly surprised. I didn't expect us to do so well last week with the AZ mess. Also, the ramp up of delivery hasn't come without warning to the HSE.

We can reevaluate after next week.

ACitizenErased

Just for anyone who considers themself as group 7, my doctor rang me about it today and I’m not being covered cos I haven’t been hospitalised in the past year so its worth getting into contact to double check

MrStuffins

Anyone know how long the standard wait time is for someone who has registered on the portal?

I see a lot of people saying they reg'd and were vaccinated a few days later. My mother (68 with emphysema) registered on Thursday but has had no message since. Is that normal?

She reckons she was told it would take 3-7 days to hear back? Or was it that her appointment would give her 3-7 days notice?

Gael23

15 million J&J doses contaminated in US
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/politics/johnson-johnson-coronavirus-vaccine.amp.html%3f0p19G=6214