Why are the Taliban still so powerful in Afghanistan?

political analyst

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56747158

The Taliban have arranged a display of force for us. Lined up on either side of the street are heavily armed men, one carrying a rocket propelled grenade launcher, another an M4 assault rifle captured from US forces. Balkh was once one of the more stable parts of the country; now it's become one of the most violent.

Baryalai, a local military commander with a ferocious reputation, points down the road, "the government forces are just there by the main market, but they can't leave their bases. This territory belongs to the mujahideen".

It's a similar picture across much of Afghanistan: the government controls the cities and bigger towns, but the Taliban are encircling them, with a presence in large parts of the countryside.

Obviously, many ordinary people in an area controlled by an organisation of hostile armed combatants are afraid to challenge it.

However, are there no people who are willing to take-up arms against the oppressors? Sure, that's what the French Resistance did!

Furthermore, most people in areas still under Afghan government control don't want a return to Taliban rule - and it's not like the Taliban have an air force!

Are Afghan police and military personnel willing to fight the Taliban?

Badly trained
joined for the pay and no other reason.
Feeling abandoned by their superiors and allies.
Understrenght and limited supplies

Theres various quotes that reflect this but a professional motivated army is worth ten times that of an unwilling conscript.

Similar in the Ukraine. The military had been treated like **** for years and simple werent in a position to challenge the Russians nor were they inclined to die for a cause they didnt believe.

On home soil, If you had 100 armed IRA men stroll into your town, what would the 5 unarmed Gardai and the 1 armed detective do but valiantly die for a lost cause or bunker down and wait for backup?

(I realise before it gets stated that this scenario is highly, highly unlikely)

political analyst

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Badly trained
joined for the pay and no other reason.
Feeling abandoned by their superiors and allies.
Understrenght and limited supplies

Theres various quotes that reflect this but a professional motivated army is worth ten times that of an unwilling conscript.

Similar in the Ukraine. The military had been treated like **** for years and simple werent in a position to challenge the Russians nor were they inclined to die for a cause they didnt believe.

On home soil, If you had 100 armed IRA men stroll into your town, what would the 5 unarmed Gardai and the 1 armed detective do but valiantly die for a lost cause or bunker down and wait for backup?

(I realise before it gets stated that this scenario is highly, highly unlikely)

But NATO has military advisers on the ground to train the Afghan security forces, right?!

Surely, most Afghan men don't treat their wives, daughters, mothers and sisters like crap, do they?

jam_mac_jam

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56747158



Obviously, many ordinary people in an area controlled by an organisation of hostile armed combatants are afraid to challenge it.

However, are there no people who are willing to take-up arms against the oppressors? Sure, that's what the French Resistance did!

Furthermore, most people in areas still under Afghan government control don't want a return to Taliban rule - and it's not like the Taliban have an air force!

Are Afghan police and military personnel willing to fight the Taliban?

The country has been at war on and off since the eighties so maybe they are tired of fighting.
The country has been destroyed. So maybe they don't see the point anymore in fighting their oppressors.

It's not like the Taliban or Afghan government is going to make much difference to most normal peoples lives in the country. It's going to be fairly hard under either.

Maybe they just want to live their lives.

Hande hoche!

They have Allah on their side. Also sheer apathy for large proportions of the population.

Scoundrel

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56747158



Obviously, many ordinary people in an area controlled by an organisation of hostile armed combatants are afraid to challenge it.

However, are there no people who are willing to take-up arms against the oppressors? Sure, that's what the French Resistance did!

Furthermore, most people in areas still under Afghan government control don't want a return to Taliban rule - and it's not like the Taliban have an air force!

Are Afghan police and military personnel willing to fight the Taliban?

The simple answer is many Afghans support the Taliban and view them as freedom fighters or at the very least a chance at some stability. The afghan government or what is known as the Afghan government is hopelessly corrupt and deeply unpopular the president derided as the mayor of Kabul.

They are successfully repelling invaders.

Love of country bolstered by religion is a tough nut to crack. The Yanks should have known this since Vietnam (They probably did but the pigs still need feeding)

jam_mac_jam

Edz87 wrote: »

They are successfully repelling invaders.

Love of country bolstered by religion is a tough nut to crack. The Yanks should have known this since Vietnam (They probably did but the pigs still need feeding)

Exactly. The invaders are leaving after twenty years having achieved absolutely nothing.

Marty Bird

The reason they’re so powerful is the heroin trade keeps their fighters bank rolled and recruits more and more.

political analyst

Scoundrel wrote: »

The simple answer is many Afghans support the Taliban and view them as freedom fighters or at the very least a chance at some stability. The afghan government or what is known as the Afghan government is hopelessly corrupt and deeply unpopular the president derided as the mayor of Kabul.

So they don't think that letting girls have the right to - at the very least - read and write is important?

Overheal

Marty Bird wrote: »

The reason they’re so powerful is the heroin trade keeps their fighters bank rolled and recruits more and more.

And it's really hard to bomb a flower out of existence. You'd have to maybe try a 180, legalize the opium trade, decriminalize it, let the establishment take monopoly of the trade and dry up the Taliban's network of buyers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-opium-poppy-production/

Go figure though, right wing extremism is hard if not impossible to erase from a culture. The nature of the war only fuels it there.

Gatling

Religion and Pakistan funding and supporting the Taliban they keep Afghanistan in the gutter and Pakistan only has to worry about India ,
The majority of the Taliban and there leaders are not Afghans but yet they want all foreigners out so they can get back to the old days again

BanditLuke

Watched a documentary about them must have been back in 2004-2005. The reporter asked a Taliban fighter if he was worried the Americans would finally push them out and he just looked at the reporter smiled and answered no.

When asked why he simply answered "the Americans have the clock and we have forever"

spring lane jack

Marty Bird wrote: »

The reason they’re so powerful is the heroin trade keeps their fighters bank rolled and recruits more and more.

And who reintroduced the Heroin trade ? You do know the Taliban actually received a UN award for stopping Heroin production.

corner of hells

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Badly trained
joined for the pay and no other reason.
Feeling abandoned by their superiors and allies.
Understrenght and limited supplies

Theres various quotes that reflect this but a professional motivated army is worth ten times that of an unwilling conscript.

Similar in the Ukraine. The military had been treated like **** for years and simple werent in a position to challenge the Russians nor were they inclined to die for a cause they didnt believe.

On home soil, If you had 100 armed IRA men stroll into your town, what would the 5 unarmed Gardai and the 1 armed detective do but valiantly die for a lost cause or bunker down and wait for backup?

(I realise before it gets stated that this scenario is highly, highly unlikely)

I dont think Afghanistan has conscription.

corner of hells

Gatling wrote: »

Religion and Pakistan funding and supporting the Taliban they keep Afghanistan in the gutter and Pakistan only has to worry about India ,
The majority of the Taliban and there leaders are not Afghans but yet they want all foreigners out so they can get back to the old days again

The majority of Taliban are Pashtun most are Afghan born ,the biggest ethnic group in Afghanistan 15-16 million, sometimes like 40 million in Pakistan and maybe 8 or 10 million in other countries in the area mainly Iran .
Pashtun regard themselves as a tribe rather Afghan or Pakistani.

riclad

the americans are simply tired of having troops there ,
when they leave there,ll probably be a civil war or the taliban will take over
unless other states intervene to provide support finance and military backup
to preserve some kind of secular government .
they are just waiting for the us troops to leave,
the taliban have no regard for human rights the believe in a state ruled by the religion of islam like iran.
i think other countrys like china and russia do not want the taliban to be in complete control .

political analyst

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56754387

Biden said that the US would continue to support Afghan government security forces - and encourage peace negotiations with the rebel Taliban leaders. That may not be enough to ensure stability in the region.

A generation of Americans remembers the dramatic fall of South Vietnam after the US withdrew from that nation - and the accusations that the US was responsible for the ensuing bloodshed.

A similar conclusion to the Afghanistan civil war could leave a similar scar on the American psyche.

Marty Bird

spring lane jack wrote: »

And who reintroduced the Heroin trade ? You do know the Taliban actually received a UN award for stopping Heroin production.

I remember they stopped production back at the start of the war or so they say, but did that really happen to the extent they said? The amount of Heroin production seems to increase year after from Afghanistan.

corner of hells

corner of hells wrote: »

I dont think Afghanistan has conscription.

Don't think I said they did.

wes

corner of hells wrote: »

The majority of Taliban are Pashtun most are Afghan born ,the biggest ethnic group in Afghanistan 15-16 million, sometimes like 40 million in Pakistan and maybe 8 or 10 million in other countries in the area mainly Iran .
Pashtun regard themselves as a tribe rather Afghan or Pakistani.

The Taliban are just a much Pashtun ultra nationalists (well we would call them nationalists, but may tribal would more accurate) mixed with Religion. People forget the nationalist part for some reason.

spring lane jack

Marty Bird wrote: »

I remember they stopped production back at the start of the war or so they say, but did that really happen to the extent they said? The amount of Heroin production seems to increase year after from Afghanistan.

They stopped production after the Taliban came to power. It was the US UK that got the growing going again. The cynic in me would say that is the real reason behind the invasion as stupid as it sounds. Interestingly enough Heroin use was dropping in Europe in the late 90's then it increased after the invasion. I witnessed the rapid increase of it here in Ireland the filth got everywhere. Synthetic Heroin type drugs are very common now so maybe that is a reason they are pulling out. G HW Bush had an interesting nickname ...check it out

Quantum Erasure

Poppy,

It was poppy, after his grandfather George who was called pops...

Check it out

corner of hells

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Don't think I said they did.

Apologies, misread your post.

Scoundrel

political analyst wrote: »

So they don't think that letting girls have the right to - at the very least - read and write is important?

Did you actually read the article you posted? There are girls pictured at school in a Taliban controlled area. The simplicity of your arguement and reasoning here suggests you are not really a political analyst at all.

political analyst

Scoundrel wrote: »

Did you actually read the article you posted? There are girls pictured at school in a Taliban controlled area. The simplicity of your arguement and reasoning here suggests you are not really a political analyst at all.

That's very big of the Taliban! :rolleyes:

Don't take people's usernames on boards.ie literally.

spring lane jack

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Poppy,

It was poppy, after his grandfather George who was called pops...

Check it out

The innocence surrounding the auld dhrugs is astonishing. The prick was smuggling it in from off shore oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quantum Erasure

spring lane jack wrote: »

The innocence surrounding the auld dhrugs is astonishing. The prick was smuggling it in from off shore oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

In his nappy?

briany

I don't think that you could even call what's been going on in Afghanistan a war in the traditional sense of the word. Not since the initial invasion period anyway where the two sides battled over control of cities and towns, i.e. centres of legislative and commercial power. That didn't last long because the Taliban would be awfully backward in terms of the power you need to win an open conflict. But they've been very good at the guerrilla tactics, and over enough time no uniformed army has a chance of winning this type of conflict because you're fighting an irregular enemy who's essentially faceless where every face of every native you see could be one of them or a sympathiser.

We know this from our own history. The British army fought an enemy who swiftly melted back into the hills and boreens after executing an ambush, and the frustration on the part of the British army fighting these ghosts led to them committing some atrocities which only made their own position more unpopular domestically and in Ireland. The thing they did right was come to the conclusion in a 2 or 3 years that it's taken the Americans 20 to get to - pull out and leave them to it.

AbusesToilets

The Taliban will likely return to power, because the Afghan government is hopelessly corrupt. A reflection of Afghan society in general. The US and NATO have created plenty of time and space for them to win over the populace, but all the military success in the world doesn't matter if the government is incapable of providing for the people.

Richard Hillman

They have support of a large section of the population there. We may look at it as bat**** crazy to support them but there are a lot of people over there that would rather live under taliban rule.

Its a backwards country. Very isolated from other cultures due to its terrain. The only places they don't have much support is up north where they border other reachable countries. The only places they have interactions with outsiders on the Eastern border is Pakistan and that's the bat**** crazy part of Pakistan. On the west they have Iran, who want absolutely nothing to do with them and massive fortified border. A lot of that is to do with the Sunni-Shia dispute.