FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630953#Comment_118630953

Big problem is that like most of the parties, quality of candidates are p1ss poor.Nobody with any ability goes anywhere near politics anymore,

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630994#Comment_118630994

I think O'Callaghan offers a chance for them.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631013#Comment_118631013

Miriam's wee brother,doubt it, won't be a Dub.

Happy Valentines Day. Take a chill pill and feel the love 💕💕💕💕💕

Ten of Swords

Mod - drop the accusations of trolling or sock puppeting.

Report inappropriate posts or suspicions of sock puppeting to the mods, don't call out other users on thread

Cluedo Monopoly

Jaysus if the Claire Byrne show is the best idea FFG have to stem the tide towards SF, they are getting very poor advice.

Jennifer Carroll McNeill from Dun Laoghaire represents exactly what is aloof, elite and out of touch with Fine Gael. Instead of defending their awful track record in government, are they planning to spend the next few years attacking SF who have never been in office? It will backfire spectacularly.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118627731#Comment_118627731

3 more years of increasing discontent does not bode well. Also it will be very first election where FF and FG are perceived as 2 sides of the same coin.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632411#Comment_118632411

The FF councillor from the north talking about looking at 'track records' in government????? 😁😁

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632450#Comment_118632450

I know. A stupid plant by FF. So transparent. Childlike.

Most people in the Republic couldn't give a rats arse about the politics in NI. I certainly don't give a fiddlers.

Suckit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632450#Comment_118632450

Would remind you of this.

https://twitter.com/AodhanORiordain/status/702060300200239104/

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632411#Comment_118632411

It worked out well the last time 😎

I can't see FF marrying up with FG doing them any favours. I really hope the SD's get their act together. Anyone SF hesitant would happily ditch FF/FG for an alternative IMO. The SD's or other could scoop up people tired of drifting from FF to FG and back again. Not that there's as many as there use to be.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631013#Comment_118631013

The %s for FF in the polls other than B&A are consistently poor and even O'Callaghan may have problems getting re-elected. FF did extremely badly in that by-election in his constituency. If he replaces the useless FFGer Martin, the prospect of a leader of FF failing to get re-elected may arise.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632419#Comment_118632419

I don't know if the FFG government will last that long. The electorate is already beginning to think of FF/FG as the same party. Any second choice votes seem to stay within FF/FG (can't remember the opinion poll but it was a very good question). As a single party, FF and FG might have a future but a lot of snouts will be removed from the public trough without an FF/FG electoral pact and and joint candidate strategy. FF/FG candidates will end up knocking each other out for the last or second last seats (fratriciding) while allowing a candidate with slightly more votes than either to win those seats. It already happened with FG running too many candidates in 2020. The worst case scenario is that SF could come close to or manage to get a majority.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632858#Comment_118632858

There's no obvious reason why they wouldn't get close to it although destabilising events can pop up out of nowhere. The FF/FG axis is a moderately stable one and they've got used to each other so October 2024 onwards is probably a good starting point. The health warning about what people think in 2022 about that future election still applies. We really can't know how things will look on the likes of housing and other issues, especially with the amount of money being thrown at them.

It will be the combined parties in government versus SF in terms of votes and depending on the arithmetic we could have another 60 day period of negotiations. As for decisions on the numbers of candidates well it will be a challenge for all parties to get that right.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633040#Comment_118633040

One of the best thngs to happen to SF in 2020 was the idiotic Black and Tans/RIC commemoration by Charlie Flanagan and the incompetent Varadkar left him off with it. Varadkar has continually lost seats for FG. He sacrificed a few obviously safe FG seats to pander to the intellectually challenged crayon jockeys in the Dublin media (Verona Murphy/Wexford) and also lost an FG heartland seat to Bacik. Whatever happens with the criminal investigation in to Varadkar and his leaking activities, he is politically a dead man walking. The battle to succeed him is already in progress with the obvious candidates being Donohoe and Coveney. The range of FF support across the opinion polls should be a major cause of concern for FF management. It is low on the RedC (a 40K panel sample) and Ireland Thinks. B&A has it ahead of FG but that uses face to face polling. It would be surpriising if FF is around the 20% mark +/- 2%. It has to do a lot better than that if it is to get those second and third seats. Both FF and FG need to dispose of their leadership liability problems before the next GE in order to give the replacements time to get settled. There doesn't seem to have been much of a boost from the end of the Covid restrictions and both Health and Housing are still major problems. Those may still destroy FF/FG at the next GE. There's also the Local Elections coming up. They are not the same as the GE but they often have very useful indicators as to the GE performance of various parties. Labour's well-deserved demolition in 2016 had been signalled in the prior LEs. The big question, at the moment, is whether the FFG government will last until then.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633429#Comment_118633429

Lack of paragraphs aside here, there are only three scenarios where they don't make it. Failure to get their budget passed, a successful motion of no confidence or some event that causes one or more of the partners to withdraw, which of course could trigger one of the first two. Having lost two years to a disease what could possibly motivate any of them to go to the country before at least the middle of 2024?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633477#Comment_118633477

Well, at least you didn't criticise my spelling. Fear of losing their place at the public trough. If FF/FG %s in the opinion polls continue to slide as those for SF rise, then many second and thrird seats FFGers will get very worried about their political careers. That will force them to start looking for some "principle" on which to walk.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633663#Comment_118633663

FG are on 20% in the latest opinion poll, close to the 20.9% they got in the general election.

FF are on 25%, well above the 22.2% they got in the general election.

If I was a backbencher in those parties, I would be happy enough with that. Have come through one of the biggest crises in the history of the State with the support intact.

The parties that need to be worried are the smaller ones which are being cannabilised by Sinn Fein.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633718#Comment_118633718

If you believe those polls. The problem is that they have different methodologies which produce different results. National poll levels often do not translate well at local levels. It is the second and third seat FFGers that will be worrying about losing their seats to SF and others.

Regards...jmcc

Podge_irl

I'm not sure why they would think losing them 3 years early is somehow better.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633793#Comment_118633793

One side of FFG gets to blame the other and thus save more seats. Eamon Ryan will probably be asleep and will not notice.

Regards...jmcc

Fattybojangles

Who in FG thought it would be a good idea to send Goldman Sachs Jennifer double barrel onto the Claire Byrne show? That's a step away from sending the rich guy from the monopoly board FFS talk about finding the biggest sterotypical toff they could find and sending her on completely out of touch.

I thought Tony Groves contribution was the best really nailed it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633748#Comment_118633748

What second and third seat FFGers?

That list is very short.

Jennifer Murnane O'Connor, FF, Carlow-Kilkenny

Niamh Smyth, FF, Cavan-Monaghan

Aindrias Moynihan, FF, Cork North-West

Michael McGrath, FF, Cork South-Central

Neale Richmond, FG, Dublin Rathdown

Sean Fleming, FF, Laois-Offaly

Robert Troy, FF, Longford-Westmeath

Alan Dillon, FG, Mayo

That is a total of 8 TDs in that position, some of them in party strongholds that will return a second seat next time. Your analysis is superficial.

Floppybits

The big issue in this government is how the hand over will go, if we are being honest FG have behaved abysmally so far in this government especially with Varadkar looking to under cut Martin at every opportunity. Will FF behave the same way especially in the run up to the election, there have been some hard pills for FF to swallow in the first part of this government such as having to back Varadkar in the no confidence motion and then again having to back Coveney and all the while they lost 2 of their own in Callely and Cowen.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634268#Comment_118634268

Order of election rather than second or third FF or FG seat in a constituency. The fratricide effect were a party or FFG may have enough votes for a seat but those votes are spread over multiple candidates is a very real one. It lost FG at least one seat that went to the Greens after two FGers knocked each other out. That fratricide effect may play out on a larger scale in the next GE because the electorate has begun to think of FF and FG as a single party and lower preferences are, according to opinion polls, moving between them.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634365#Comment_118634365

Martin had better watch his back with those two. O'Callaghan was beginning to make noises about becoming leader last month.

Regards...jmcc

Floppybits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634632#Comment_118634632

I don't think Martin has a problem really, yeah he is not a great leader but when you look at FF there isn't anyone there to really challenge him, he is the best of a bad bunch. I know people are talking about O'Callaghan but I don't see the appeal of O'Callaghan. He has been keeping a low profile, maybe working away in the background are grass roots and also his seat is not a safe one. What has O'Calllaghan done really to be considered leadership material?

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633718#Comment_118633718

Like The Greens? Member The Green Party?

Where did support for FF and FG go? PBP? SF took a bite. Accept it.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634857#Comment_118634857

Very little but he seems somewhat more competent than Martin. The problem is that he is in a highly contested constituency and, if he became leader, he could very well end up losing his seat. Donohoe's kite-flying before Christmas was interesting. He mentioned that he worked well with Michael McGrath and he's another possible for FF leader. O'Callaghan might have made a good minister for justice instead of the present occupant. Martin may have considered him too much of a threat to give him a powerful ministry and his decision to effectively stay out of any minor ministries may have been a good one.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634625#Comment_118634625

If you are correct and lower preferences are moving between FF and FG candidates, that is good news for those parties.

Up until very recently, most FF voters would give their preferences to anyone but FG and vice versa. If the opposite is now happening, that should see increased seat numbers as lower eliminations benefit those staying in the race. Certainly, with FF/FG/Greens holding steady at 50% or over in the polls, the government should be easily returned.

The electoral arithmetic clearly shows smaller parties losing to SF in the next election.