FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149026#Comment_119149026

I was not talking to you and I am not trying to shut down anything. Tbh, I have zero idea what you are talking or rambling about anymore.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119147599#Comment_119147599

The problem for FF and FG is that their duopoly on power is under threat. They want to put off the reunification of Ireland for as long as possible. FF is at 15% in the latest opinion poll and FG is at 20%/ SF is at 36%. It is a RedC poll and its methodology is different to other pollsters in that it uses a pre-qualified panel of about 40K people that it thinks represents the electorate. Other pollsters use random samples of the electorate. The B&A polls seem to be better at estimating the support for FF as they use face to face polling rather than online/phone polling. Older FF voters are more likely to respond in face to face polling. The current polling %s for FF/FG/Greens are dire but I think that the Greens are falling back to their core support levels. On these %s, FG is going to lose more seats in the next GE.

Cowen is a bit smarter than people think. He and a few others were on a kind of virtual rubber chicken circuit during the Covid lockdowns. He and a few others were meeting other FFers to build support for the removal of Martin and his replacement possibly with Jim O'Callaghan. Cowen also lost his frontbench position as did Calleary. It was like Martin sacrificed FFers to appease Varadkar and FG. FF's performance in the Dublin Bay South bye-election, O'Callaghan's constituency, dampened some of those leadership moves as FF only managed to get 5% of the FPVs there. Varadkar and FG really screwed up that election and essentially gave away what should have been a safe FG seat.

FF and FG have to merge to survive but the problem is that their candidates are now dependent on transfers from each other rather than from floating votes. The political model shifted from being a 2.5 party model with Labour being the half-party to a Big Three model around 2013. The problem with the Big Three model is that no two parties have enough seats on their own for a majority. The floating vote that used to oscillate between FF and Labour disappeared and the incompetence of Labour's Stickies leadership in chasing ministerial pensions caused Labour to go into government in 2011 when it should have remained out. In the 2016 GE, the Labour's support collapsed and it went from 37 seats in the 2011 GE to just 7 in 2016. The transfers on which Labour candidates depended disappeared as FG and FF struggled to keep those transfers within their own sets of candidates.

The 2020 GE was a shock to FF/FG and Labour. The Dublin media also had problems in understanding what was happening and couldn't properly analyse the polling data. The Black and Tans/RIC commemoration by Charlie Flanagan caused massive problems for FG. The useless Martin compounded the problem for FF in that he wanted to commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC too. That, and Martin's confidence and supply (or more accurately, collaboration and surrender) agreement with FG and FF's history on housing, caused FF to lose an election where it should have been expecting to get between 50 and 60 seats.

FG would also have done a lot better had it not given into the neo-Unionist element represented by Charlie Flanagan. It had been polling around 30% before Christmas 2019 and the Black and Tans/RIC commemoration effectively controlled much of the media coverage before the GE. FG's woes were, and still are, amplified by the sheer incompetence of Varadkar. Varadkar has been a disaster for FG and he unnecessarily lost FG seats. With a competent FG leader, FG could have done a lot better. But Varadkar was the FG Politburo choice of candidate. The FG grassroots had voted for Coveney but Varadkar was installed as leader due to the FG parliamentary party's votes having more weight than those of the FG grassroots. Varadkar has led FG from one disaster to another (the LEs, the 2020 GE, leaking a document to his friend, losing a safe seat in FG heartland) and FG needs to remove him.

If FF and FG had both had competent leaders then SF would not have done as well in 2020 and would certainly not be the most popular party in the polls. Cowen is bright enough to realise the absolute toxicity of Martin's leadership and grovelling to FG. What will be interesting to see is which potential replacement for Martin will be proposed. O'Callaghan's seat is possibly safe but the prospect of an FF leader losing his seat in the next GE will be a factor. Michael McGrath may also be a possibility. Before Christmas it seemed that Pascal Donohoe was launching his own leadership challenge with an interview in the Indo where he said that he had worked well with McGrath. The memory of how Martin effectively stabbed Brian Cowen in the back to get the leadership is still there and Martin does seem to be increasingly isolated in FF. He may be lucky to make it to December.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119148936#Comment_119148936

It is amazing that when you call out homophobia, you get accused of "using the gay community". It is bizarre and worrying stuff.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149226#Comment_119149226

Someone woke him up? :) He's probably quite lucky in that most of the fallout on this seems to be focused on FF and FG.

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149612#Comment_119149612

Himself and Hildegard have been meeting the DAA weekly for some months. They knew a rise in passengers was happening months ago. They never replaced the staff they let go.

Like all things government related we are left asking was it incompetence or greed?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149640#Comment_119149640

You'd wonder if they were playing with a full deck at times. Have Covid unemployment payments been blamed for the DAA's failure to recruit people yet?

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149557#Comment_119149557

Baffling alright, you try to have a discussion about the increasing issues online in Ireland and it end up with posts about reporting users to the mods because they have different opinion. So much for trying to have a debate on the government thread.

Unless the debate is government = bad it seems to quickly turns into a disaster

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149683#Comment_119149683

It is interesting why you and others feel the need to constantly make comments about government TD's mental capacity?

It seems to be very common around here. These people, all TD's in fact, have managed to get themselves into a position in a party to get nominated to be the local TD, then after that manage to get enough votes to get elected from people. Plus once elected their piers put them in for positions in government.

So please can you explain to everyone why you think you should be in a position to insult the intelligence of another human in the first place? but a human who has managed to be successful in their career as a TD?

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149683#Comment_119149683

That old chestnut, that's the preserve of the Hospitality sector who did the exact same thing, but most of the staff didn't get generous redundancy packages, we're dropped liked bad habits, told to go on PUP, fecked off out of the sector for good and then Hospitality representatives blamed PUP on their initial woes. No one left to blame now but their own Greed and stupidity.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149443#Comment_119149443

So you started to complain about me shutting people down while proceeding to shut down my own comments. Back seat modding ain't allowed by the way.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149787#Comment_119149787

No. I commented on your use of the gay community to try shut down debate you didn't like.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149765#Comment_119149765

Some businesses will take advantage of any opportunity like that to cut costs. The problem is that when demand returns, they simply don't have the people to cope with that demand.

Regards...jmcc

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149795#Comment_119149795

I didn't mention the gay community. You are confused....again. ;)

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149819#Comment_119149819

You used homophobia because a trolling tweet Leo made was referenced in a discussion on political trolls.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149459#Comment_119149459

The Red C poll is done online, using a 1k sample from a prepicked panel of 40k. As a result, it is open to manipulation.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149878#Comment_119149878

I think you are quite confused about the meaning both of the gay community and of homophobia. If you were an employee in my organisation, I would be sending you for equality and diversity training.

Pointing out incidents of homophobia is defending the gay community and addressing inequality. In no way can it be considered as using the gay community. Similarly, pointing out incidents of homophobia by individual posters or groups of posters is not using the gay community for political point-scoring, it is simply pointing out unacceptable behaviour by individual posters or groups of posters. No more, no less. For example, the banned sockpuppet account played right on the line of sexism, homophobia and racism, while pretending otherwise, right down to the usernames he chose (McMurphy, the main one being a misogynist character in a book).

From what I can see, boards applies the benefit of the doubt to many of those posters, allowing low-level borderline stuff because it is so difficult to police and so difficult to prove intention. However, that doesn't prevent the rest of us from seeing right through it. Getting back to the topic, over the years, a lot of the invective thrown at Leo has had homophobic undertones. If that makes people suspicious of his critics and their motives, that is the price of having a society that doesn't do enough to combat homophobia.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150008#Comment_119150008

I have said it for a long time, if you keep asking people the same question why do you expect a different answer.

From what I can see to take part in a RedC poll you just need to register via the website RedC live.

If anyone can't see the potential issues here then I can't help

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149878#Comment_119149878

No, didn't do any of those things you mentioned. I think you are talking about someone else, a ghost or you are confused.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150046#Comment_119150046

This x1000

The usual crew just cannot stand a mirror pointing at them, so will post wild rambling rubbish as a retort.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150008#Comment_119150008

You don't know much about polls. As for your ridiculous claim that simply because RedC is using a panel of approximately 40K it is open to manipulation, that's rubbish. RedC's 40K panel effectively produces results that are closer to a tracking poll that measures sentiment across the same set of respondents over a period rather than a polls with a random sample of the electorate which provide a potentially more representative view of public sentiment. The difference in methodologies between pollsters explains some of the differences in party support in different polls but when polls start showing the same general trends, the confidence in the larger party support is somewhat higher. That obviously upsets you because SF is the most popular party according to all polls and both FF and FG are struggling and the Green Party has effectively collapsed to its traditional core support percentages.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150075#Comment_119150075

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150050#Comment_119150050

As @brokenangel says if anyone can't see the potential issues here then I can't help.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150090#Comment_119150090

This is what RedC says about its polling:

https://www.redcresearch.ie/latest-polls/called-by-red-c/

I don't think that you or Brokenangel have any knowledge of polling or methodologies given that you have not demonstrated any such knowledge here or on other threads. The two of you seem extremely upset that SF is leading across all polls including RedC. People and businesses have confidence in RedC as a polling company where as you two are just anonymous posters on a forum.

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150046#Comment_119150046

Leo was quoted for a tweet he'd sent in a discussion on political online trolling.

You brought in homophobic references and inferences. Thats you abusing the gay community for your own political agenda. You have whitled Leo down to no more than his sexual orientation. Its disrespectful and using a minority group for your own ends. Not the first or last time sadly. I can't recall anyone abusing him based on his sexuality. Certainly not me and certainly not in this discussion. Just stop the abuse.

As someone who has campaigned and marched for equality for same sex couples, we could always do more. Armchair abusers for their own ends do more harm.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150060#Comment_119150060

You agreed with blanch and continued same.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150075#Comment_119150075

Par for the course to criticise the source when the news isn't good.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150075#Comment_119150075

I wouldn't mind, not only have you helpfully explained how Red C do their polling before, the info is in the public domain 😏

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150046#Comment_119150046

I see right through this post Blanch and you know that I do. Not fooled. Very very poor form.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150437#Comment_119150437

What's interesting about RedC's polling is that it is more likely to pick up some shifts in sentiment before the other pollsters simply because it uses a panel of voters rather than effectively starting from zero with a new random sample for each poll. There is a very slight continuity effect with RedC polls (some people being polled more than once over a period of time) as a result of this. That slight continuity effect allowed the spread on the seats between the largest of the Big Three parties and the smallest to be called before the 2016 GE. That really irritated some FG posters who simply would not believe that FG was heading for something close to a 2002 style seat loss.

One of the most important polls in the 2016 US presidential election was a tracking poll of the same set of voters over a period of a year and it picked up the shift to Trump when others completely missed it. They are quite different to random sample polls. The real test of whether a pollster is accurately measuring support is in votes. All of the pollsters tracked the destruction of Labour. The rise of SF in the two months before the 2020 GE caught a lot of the media by surprise but the pollsters were tracking it but the commentators/polcorrs in the media, some of whom had become effectively institutionalised with their support for their favourite parties almost refused to believe it. They had made up their minds and the seat estimates for FF/FG/Labour from some of these commentators was, to say the least, wildly optimistic. What really caused problems for FF, FG and SF was that they had decided on their candidate strategy months before the election. FF and FG were stuck with running too many candidates and SF ran too few. SF won't make that mistake again and neither will FF or FG (if they haven't merged into a single party) in the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149459#Comment_119149459

Great post.

The Dublin South by election was a real eye opener for me on how bankrupt FG are.

I heard about the Cowen grassroots roadshow but he came across as very bitter. Jim has struggled to build his profile too.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150601#Comment_119150601

Kate O'Connell had voted against Varadkar in the leadership election. She probably would have won that seat but internal FG politics (Varadkar and his gang) seemed to put an end to that. What was interesting was that one of the pollsters (B&A, I think) got FF's level of support right (around 5% for the FF candidate). It should have been an easy win for FG with a good candidate. FF wasn't even competing for the seat.

Some of the vote that would have gone to O'Connell ended up with Bacik. Given the events of the last fifteen years, FG had a lot of opportunities to finish off FF but they never took them. It will be very difficult for Bacik to hold that seat in DBS because she was, despite the promotion by RTE (TV programme before the election), very much an accidental winner due to the incompetence of FG and the reluctance of FF to run a strong candidate. O'Callaghan may hold his seat on FG transfers but it is still far from certain. He would have been a far more competent Justice minister than McEntee and he was right to refuse a junior ministership.

Regards...jmcc