FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

ineedeuro

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2021/0616/1228490-farmers-protest/

Climate action bill passed yesterday.

Calhoun

RandomViewer wrote: »

Greens will lose most if not all their seats, FF if there's an election soon will take a heavy hit, FG stagnant or lose because of no transfers, next election will have lots of genepool FF/FG candidates running as independents

It will be interesting to see what happens at election, you have to remember that in government performance and election performance are two different things.

It will greatly depend on who can do politics better on the ground and if the public believe them. I firmly believe that FG/FF keep getting in because there is no good concise plan for opposition.

is_that_so

RandomViewer wrote: »

Greens will lose most if not all their seats, FF if there's an election soon will take a heavy hit, FG stagnant or lose because of no transfers, next election will have lots of genepool FF/FG candidates running as independents

There is a volatile electorate who adopt non-establishment groups as pets and then tend to childishly punish them for not being what they say they voted for. There won't be an election for quite some time, at least 2023, so a poll in the early summer of 2021 is largely irrelevant to that.

Loafing Oaf

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

SF seem to be in a bit of a bind without them onboard. Is there anyone else that will go in with them?

blanch152 wrote: »

No serious party. Labour and Social Democrats didn't give it any serious consideration.

You're conflating the last election and the next one, after which the circumstances may well be entirely different.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You're conflating the last election and the next one, after which the circumstances may well be entirely different.

TBH, they are hoping against hope.

Shebean

I reckon FG's loss will be FF and SF's gain.
It'll be a much similar tale as the last result but I expect SF will fare even better so a good chance of a SF coalition, hopefully not involving FF.

ineedeuro

One billion from Europe for the Brexit mess from Europe will be welcome

Calhoun

ineedeuro wrote: »

One billion from Europe for the Brexit mess from Europe will be welcome

Lets hope it can offset the tax kick in the bollox we are about to get with corporate tax and FDI's potentially moving abroad because they cannot house staff.

Cluedo Monopoly

FF and FG will get very few transfers from each other. The grass roots in FF are furious with the way the coalition has been handled.
FF have copped most of the flak for Health, Housing and Education. And Agriculture

I agree that the Greens will be wiped out again. They haven't learned many lessons.
SF will grow, FF will reduce. FG might remain stagnant.
SD, Labour and Independents will do well.

blanch152

RandomViewer wrote: »

Greens will lose most if not all their seats, FF if there's an election soon will take a heavy hit, FG stagnant or lose because of no transfers, next election will have lots of genepool FF/FG candidates running as independents

Huh??? The government parties combined are 4-5% up on their general election performance in the recent polls.

That doesn't square with your calculations. Take the Greens, on 6%, down from 7.1%, not a huge drop, should hold most of their seats.

FF performed badly in the last election, getting 22%, now on 20%, but always increase support during election campaigns, not sure how they will take a heavy hit.

FG are way up on the election, only got 20%, now on 27%.

Your post wouldn't even qualify as wishful thinking.

_Kaiser_

ineedeuro wrote: »

One billion from Europe for the Brexit mess from Europe will be welcome

Drop in the ocean compared to the costs racked up in the last year and the Brexit fallout which has been frozen to an extent as a result of Covid.

Shebean

Didn't the Greens sell out on their "principles" leaving out key elements the Greens "stood" for?
I get it's a coalition but I wouldn't be patting myself on the back if I were Eamon Ryan. It looks like more of a PR stunt than a hard climate initiative.
You know it's not a win when Varadkar isn't trying to steal the thunder.

ineedeuro

Shebean wrote: »

Didn't the Greens sell out on their "principles" leaving out key elements the Greens "stood" for?
I get it's a coalition but I wouldn't be patting myself on the back if I were Eamon Ryan. It looks like more of a PR stunt than a hard climate initiative.
You know it's not a win when Varadkar isn't trying to steal the thunder.

I wouldn't be shouting and roaring about "selling out"
Wait till you see the scramble at the next election when none of the parties have enough seats to form their own government. Mothers, father, sons & daughter will be sold to get a bit of power.

ineedeuro

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Drop in the ocean compared to the costs racked up in the last year and the Brexit fallout which has been frozen to an extent as a result of Covid.

If we can align with the rest of Europe the fallout will be minimised. The fact they have given us the biggest bit of the pot bodes well.

At this stage the biggest loser in Brexit is UK. Irish companies just need to wake up quickly

Shebean

ineedeuro wrote: »

I wouldn't be shouting and roaring about "selling out"
Wait till you see the scramble at the next election when none of the parties have enough seats to form their own government. Mothers, father, sons & daughter will be sold to get a bit of power.

So you think others will sell out?
I can see amending policy to fit with any coalition, which makes sense. As I say, wouldn't be patting myself on the back for backtracking on core policy.
Being Green is all the Greens are about, allegedly.

ineedeuro

Shebean wrote: »

So you think others will sell out?
I can see amending policy to fit with any coalition, which makes sense. As I say, wouldn't be patting myself on the back for backtracking on core policy.
Being Green is all the Greens are about, allegedly.

Sinn Fein had no problem selling out last year only nobody would join them.
FF and FG sold out, the Greens just wanted to get into government to change the World.

RandomViewer

blanch152 wrote: »

Huh??? The government parties combined are 4-5% up on their general election performance in the recent polls.

That doesn't square with your calculations. Take the Greens, on 6%, down from 7.1%, not a huge drop, should hold most of their seats.

FF performed badly in the last election, getting 22%, now on 20%, but always increase support during election campaigns, not sure how they will take a heavy hit.

FG are way up on the election, only got 20%, now on 27%.

Your post wouldn't even qualify as wishful thinking.

Wouldn't worry too much about what you think, Greens are compost come next election , FF proving they've learned nothing so multiple losses, FG are likely at their level from now on, SF with better vote management another 10 seats, tons of independents and one issue candidates will be the biggest grouping in the next Dail

Bass Reeves

RandomViewer wrote: »

Wouldn't worry too much about what you think, Greens are compost come next election , FF proving they've learned nothing so multiple losses, FG are likely at their level from now on, SF with better vote management another 10 seats, tons of independents and one issue candidates will be the biggest grouping in the next Dail

It's the independents that are going to get it for N the neck at the next election. Most benefited from SF/FF transfers

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Huh??? The government parties combined are 4-5% up on their general election performance in the recent polls.

That doesn't square with your calculations. Take the Greens, on 6%, down from 7.1%, not a huge drop, should hold most of their seats.

FF performed badly in the last election, getting 22%, now on 20%, but always increase support during election campaigns, not sure how they will take a heavy hit.

FG are way up on the election, only got 20%, now on 27%.

Your post wouldn't even qualify as wishful thinking.

Again the assumption that FF and FG + are always going to make up the government.

FG are on 27% and falling btw.

McMurphy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's the independents that are going to get it for N the neck at the next election. Most benefited from SF/FF transfers

Independents are going to get it in the neck in the next election, why exactly?

I don't think people will look to punish independent candidates when reviewing this hobbled together governments performance during the next election campaign tbh.

Loafing Oaf

McMurphy wrote: »

Independents are going to get it in the neck in the next election, why exactly?

The general dynamic with elections over the past several elections has been:

Government is formed dependent on inds in some way and said inds bring goodies to their constituencies. Voters see this and elect a scatter of inds next time. Next government does not involve inds and voters are disappointed, moving back to traditional parties for the next election. Current government, unlike last one, does not rely on inds so voters likely to turn against them next time.

McMurphy

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

The general dynamic with elections over the past several elections has been:

Government is formed dependent on inds in some way and said inds bring goodies to their constituencies. Voters see this and elect a scatter of inds next time. Next government does not involve inds and voters are disappointed, moving back to traditional parties for the next election. Current government, unlike last one, does not rely on inds so voters likely to turn against them next time.

Strange way of looking at things, I will just be viewing my local independent candidate(s) with the same irrelevancy as I did last time tbh, certainly wouldn't be actively seeking to punish him or her because the last government made a haimes of things.

Bass Reeves

McMurphy wrote: »

Independents are going to get it in the neck in the next election, why exactly?

I don't think people will look to punish independent candidates when reviewing this hobbled together governments performance during the next election campaign tbh.

It not that they will look to punish Independents it the dynamics of what will happen. Last election SF did not stand enough candidates. Next time they will. So they will pick up extra seats. This will mainly effect left wing SD/S-PBP etc.

If the government has a voting pact (and every coalition government has historically) that should hold there percentage fairly within that pact.

On the present polling data the government is 4-5% ahead of where the parties that formed it were at the last generation election. If that is carried into a GE you expect that as a block of votes it would get 90-100 seats.

If SF stands more candidates to it will not have as much of it vite avaible to left and independent candidates. On present polling data the Ind, SD and S-PBP have about 12% of the vote. They have about 32 seats or 20% of them. They benefited from SF(not enough candidates) FF( too many candidates) FG( getting few transfers). This word generally not happen in PR system where any seat bonus goes to bigger voting blocks

Lads are not looking at the polling data. Ye FG lost 4 % compared to the last poll but it gained 4-5% in the last poll so it is back where it was but ahead of its GE vote

UDAWINNER

https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406283468938657792
Sums up FG well

titan18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It not that they will look to punish Independents it the dynamics of what will happen. Last election SF did not stand enough candidates. Next time they will. So they will pick up extra seats. This will mainly effect left wing SD/S-PBP etc.

If the government has a voting pact (and every coalition government has historically) that should hold there percentage fairly within that pact.

On the present polling data the government is 4-5% ahead of where the parties that formed it were at the last generation election. If that is carried into a GE you expect that as a block of votes it would get 90-100 seats.

If SF stands more candidates to it will not have as much of it vite avaible to left and independent candidates. On present polling data the Ind, SD and S-PBP have about 12% of the vote. They have about 32 seats or 20% of them. They benefited from SF(not enough candidates) FF( too many candidates) FG( getting few transfers). This word generally not happen in PR system where any seat bonus goes to bigger voting blocks

Lads are not looking at the polling data. Ye FG lost 4 % compared to the last poll but it gained 4-5% in the last poll so it is back where it was but ahead of its GE vote

I dunno. The government have a covid bounce really. When it comes to the election in a few years, covid will be out the window and the bigger issues like healthcare and housing are firmly back in view, the government will be torn apart imo. I'd be a FG voter in the last few elections but no interest in them atm with the housing situation.

Shebean

Fine Gael claim they will end the housing crisis, (they started) but Sinn Fein are populist.

Brilliant

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again the assumption that FF and FG + are always going to make up the government.

FG are on 27% and falling btw.

Between them, they have 47% of the vote in the latest opinion poll, more than they got in the general election.

Wishful thinking on your part, but then they fooled you for the best part of 50 years.

skimpydoo

blanch152 wrote: »

Between them, they have 47% of the vote in the latest opinion poll, more than they got in the general election.

Wishful thinking on your part, but then they fooled you for the best part of 50 years.

You are assuming that FF and FG will join up again after the next election. FF will have a new leader and FG might have one too.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Between them, they have 47% of the vote in the latest opinion poll, more than they got in the general election.

Wishful thinking on your part, but then they fooled you for the best part of 50 years.

No wishful thinking, ..that is what you are doung. Hoping they will keep the meger going.

Continuing it to cling to power is going to harm them.

ineedeuro

UDAWINNER wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406283468938657792
Sums up FG well

That’s shocking, why so low? Did they just build 100 houses or something in 2016?

What’s the numbers in 2017/18/19?