FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

blanch152

ineedeuro wrote: »

That's why I said "most".
Look across all of these threads and these similar predications are all been made tell a very similar story. You are just the latest so I wasn't specifically talking about yours.

Personally this far out from an election I wouldn't bother predicting anything, especially with the ability of all parties to be the next bad headline.

No point in predicting anything beyond the latest opinion poll.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Nobody based an opinion on an "eternal coalition" of FF/FG.

Indeed a previous opinion poll which put a FG/Green/SD/Labour coalition on 40% offered other options.

The key point is that Sinn Fein have never had serious government discussions with any party because not a single party has ever wanted to enter government with them (unless you include PBP).

blanch, you are handwaving all opinion away based on an 'eternal coalition' of FF/FG clinging to the power and refusing to talk to others.

ineedeuro

blanch152 wrote: »

No point in predicting anything beyond the latest opinion poll.

At the moment the press have figured out they get loads of clicks and reads if they release an opinion poll. It seems to be a new one every few days. Which would mean the results of those polls have to be questionable.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

blanch, you are handwaving all opinion away based on an 'eternal coalition' of FF/FG clinging to the power and refusing to talk to others.

That is your interpretation. I see many options, but none involve SF as nobody wants to govern with them.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is your interpretation. I see many options, but none involve SF as nobody wants to govern with them.

No, all you can actually say (as Michael showed by opening the door after the GE) is that neither FF or FG wants to govern with SF if they have equal or more seats than FF or FG.
We know that future leaders have no issues on that front.

Real politick blanch, not your fantastical belief that exclusionary politics will continue to work or appeal to the electorate.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, all you can actually say (as Michael showed by opening the door after the GE) is that neither FF or FG wants to govern with SF if they have equal or more seats than FF or FG.
We know that future leaders have no issues on that front.

Real politick blanch, not your fantastical belief that exclusionary politics will continue to work or appeal to the electorate.

Real politick is that nobody wants to do business with Sinn Fein.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Real politick is that nobody wants to do business with Sinn Fein.

Except FF after the last election and the man who is favorite to lead them next in many eyes.

FG always were exclusionary in one way or another, no surprise they will try and cling to power by re-electing those they compare to John Delaney.

Muahahaha

Gonna be some craic at the next election when the FG manifesto will basically be a copy and paste of the SF one with a united Ireland and 40,000 houses a year.

As I said last week that opinion poll (SF +4, FG-4) could be the first evidence we are seeing of SF now eating into the FG vote because FG voters need houses too and they know their party is ideologically opposed to delivering them. No doubt FG have their own internal polls showing a similar trend and there was also a poll that showed trust in them to fix the housing market is shattered. And then at their Ard Fheis Varadkar suddenly starts adopting SF policies. The tail is truly wagging the dog now, FG are now giving up their identity to SF in order to remain relevant, they can see the writing on the wall and its panic stations all round.

Cluedo Monopoly

blanch152 wrote: »

Real politick is that nobody wants to do business with Sinn Fein.

It's realpolitik.

Your blinkers are blinding you to the fact that nobody needed to do business with them in the past.

2011 General Election = 14 seats (+9)
2016 General Election = 23 seats (+9)
2020 General Election = 37 seats (+14)

The unofficial FFG merger in 2016 (confidence and supply) kept them out. The official FFG merger in 2020 kept them out. The FFG power swap will be incapable next time. I predict sleepless nights for Blanch

FrancieBrady

Muahahaha wrote: »

Gonna be some craic at the next election when the FG manifesto will basically be a copy and paste of the SF one with a united Ireland and 40,000 houses a year.

As I said last week that opinion poll (SF +4, FG-4) could be the first evidence we are seeing of SF now eating into the FG vote because FG voters need houses too and they know their party is ideologically opposed to delivering them. No doubt FG have their own internal polls showing a similar trend and there was also a poll that showed trust in them to fix the housing market is shattered. And then at their Ard Fheis Varadkar suddenly starts adopting SF policies. The tail is truly wagging the dog now, FG are now giving up their identity to SF in order to remain relevant, they can see the writing on the wall and its panic stations all round.

More evidence of the change happening across Irish all island politics. Will be seen as a seismic few years by historians.

Shebean

FF seem to be keeping the head while FG seem to be losing theirs. "I believe you're a Provo now father?".
I want to see all the magic money tree groves FG have ready to harvest to solve the housing crisis. Using FG logic any policy in that direction would require a magic money tree.
I don't think anyone will buy this presto changeo Fine Gael. Maybe a few die hard beliebers.

After years of Fine Gael calling others populist here they are now talking about solving their housing crisis and a united Ireland, that's shinners for you

Floppybits

Shebean wrote: »

FF seem to be keeping the head while FG seem to be losing theirs. "I believe you're a Provo now father?".
I want to see all the magic money tree groves FG have ready to harvest to solve the housing crisis. Using FG logic any policy in that direction would require a magic money tree.
I don't think anyone will buy this presto changeo Fine Gael. Maybe a few die hard beliebers.

After years of Fine Gael calling others populist here they are now talking about solving their housing crisis and a united Ireland, that's shinners for you

All Sinn Fein's fault.

rob316

Putting a radical housing plan into action, that is what they have to do to remain in government or SF will breeze the next GE.

timmyntc

rob316 wrote: »

Putting a radical housing plan into action, that is what they have to do to remain in government or SF will breeze the next GE.

SF won't breeze it, but theyll definitely be #1 and likely will poll better than current polls state.

The problem is that housing takes so long - between planning, tenders, actual construction etc. The time to start a radical housing plan was several years ago - even if they started tomorrow, they wouldnt make a dent in the housing issue by the time next election rolls around.

ineedeuro

rob316 wrote: »

Putting a radical housing plan into action, that is what they have to do to remain in government or SF will breeze the next GE.

Do people think the whole of Ireland cares about the housing issues? It's just the latest in the "crisis" affecting Ireland. Tomorrow it will be something else.

Next year? well it could be take your pick

Cluedo Monopoly

ineedeuro wrote: »

Do people think the whole of Ireland cares about the housing issues? It's just the latest in the "crisis" affecting Ireland. Tomorrow it will be something else.

Next year? well it could be take your pick

100% the biggest issue for the next few years. The housing crisis is impacting loads of people and that filters down to businesses including multinationals. The cuckoo fund scandal is very damaging.

ineedeuro

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

100% the biggest issue for the next few years. It is impacting loads of people.

How many in a population of 5 million? 10k? 20k?

Health is a lot bigger issue but RTE won't touch that at the moment because of the ransomware attack. That affects everyone and should be a priority. If the opposition was any good they would concentrate on that but it is always the flashy light story

Shebean

ineedeuro wrote: »

How many in a population of 5 million? 10k? 20k?

Health is a lot bigger issue but RTE won't touch that at the moment because of the ransomware attack. That affects everyone and should be a priority. If the opposition was any good they would concentrate on that but it is always the flashy light story

You think the housing issue is a flashy light story, a trend?
Where do you get your information?

Fann Linn

ineedeuro wrote: »

Do people think the whole of Ireland cares about the housing issues? It's just the latest in the "crisis" affecting Ireland. Tomorrow it will be something else.

Next year? well it could be take your pick

Well housing & health were the two biggest issues during the last election according to exit polls. One year later it's still the same.
Hasn't gone away you know!

Cluedo Monopoly

ineedeuro wrote: »

How many in a population of 5 million? 10k? 20k?

Health is a lot bigger issue but RTE won't touch that at the moment because of the ransomware attack. That affects everyone and should be a priority. If the opposition was any good they would concentrate on that but it is always the flashy light story

Health was a disaster before the last election (hence confidence vote in Harris). It will be in worse shape when normal service resumes.

When young people cannot afford to rent or buy, 3 generations get angry.

ineedeuro

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Health was a disaster before the last election (hence confidence vote in Harris). It will be in worse shape when normal service resumes.

When young people cannot afford to rent or buy, 3 generations get angry.

If you say so, I don't see it. Anyone I know can afford rent or buy a house and I can tell you I ain't mixing in the elite circles. Yes people have same changes to meet their requirements, some would love to live in a city centre apartment but can't afford it so move out further, but that is no different to any other generation

Lets look at our recent history
2000's build houses build house build houses
2010's too many houses, knock them
2020's build house build houses
See a trend here?

Please note I am not saying the issue doesn't exist, just the a lot of people in Ireland it doesn't actually affect them as bad as the media is making it out. Health should be a concern for everyone

Fann Linn

ineedeuro wrote: »

If you say so, I don't see it. Anyone I know can afford rent or buy a house and I can tell you I ain't mixing in the elite circles. Yes people have same changes to meet their requirements, some would love to live in a city centre apartment but can't afford it so move out further, but that is no different to any other generation

Lets look at our recent history
2000's build houses build house build houses
2010's too many houses, knock them
2020's build house build houses
See a trend here?

Hope you don't drive, cos your observation and aural skills are lousy. Every party, including FFG overseen by Leo and Martin have acknowledged there is a housing crisis. I'll take my cue from them that there is something amiss rather than your self and your buddies who are obviously still isolating on a rock in the North Atlantic away from all media reports.

skimpydoo

FF and probably FG will have new leaders before the next election, and I don't think they will want another coalition.

Loafing Oaf

skimpydoo wrote: »

FF and probably FG will have new leaders before the next election, and I don't think they will want another coalition.

How else are FG going to get back in to power except through some sort of deal with FF?

skimpydoo

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How else are FG going to get back in to power except through some sort of deal with FF?

FF will probably say no to that.

Loafing Oaf

skimpydoo wrote: »

FF will probably say no to that.

Quite possibly, but FG will make damn sure to be seen to make FF a fair offer on forming a government (assuming the numbers are there), and if FF prefer a deal with SF FG will impress on everyone that is FF's own free choice.

Muahahaha

timmyntc wrote: »

SF won't breeze it, but theyll definitely be #1 and likely will poll better than current polls state.

The problem is that housing takes so long - between planning, tenders, actual construction etc. The time to start a radical housing plan was several years ago - even if they started tomorrow, they wouldnt make a dent in the housing issue by the time next election rolls around.

Absolutely, the housing situation isnt getting solved overnight and is actually set to get much worse before it has any chance of getting better. Think it was an economist at Davy last week who said we are locked into at least another two years of further house price growth.

Varadkar was saying he doesnt want house prices to go back to Celtic Tiger levels but with another two years of increases we will be pretty much there. By the time the next election rolls around house prices are set to be at their highest level since since 2008 with rents also increasing to reflect the underlying asset being more valuable. So while the situation is bad now it is going to be an absolute sh1tshow in two years time

Larbre34

I'm surprised people are suggesting that FF are going to have any choice.

If there was an election tomorrow it'd come back something like

FG 50-55
SF 40-45
FF 25-30

Greens perhaps 8 and the rest swings and roundabouts.

FF either go back in with FG, or languish as second rank opposition party. In fact they'll probably be merged by 2030.

Fianna Gael. Has a nice ring to it.

McMurphy

Larbre34 wrote: »

Fianna Gael. Has a nice ring to it.

Fine Fail has a nicer one.

Loafing Oaf

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm surprised people are suggesting that FF are going to have any choice.

If there was an election tomorrow it'd come back something like

FG 50-55
SF 40-45
FF 25-30

Greens perhaps 8 and the rest swings and roundabouts.

FF either go back in with FG, or languish as second rank opposition party.

What about a government of SF+FF+whoever?