FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

Bass Reeves

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm surprised people are suggesting that FF are going to have any choice.

If there was an election tomorrow it'd come back something like

FG 50-55
SF 40-45
FF 25-30

Greens perhaps 8 and the rest swings and roundabouts.

FF either go back in with FG, or languish as second rank opposition party. In fact they'll probably be merged by 2030.

Fianna Gael. Has a nice ring to it.

I expect SF to have the most seTs after the next election. Who is second depends on what way the second half of this government goes under FG. We have council and European elections in between. It will be interesting to see if a FF/FG/Green pact can hold during local elections especially. Will it deliver a seT bonus to the government parties or particularly to FF/FG.

Elections are not decided on events in first half of the election cycle but in the second half and during the campaign

RandomViewer

timmyntc wrote: »

SF won't breeze it, but theyll definitely be #1 and likely will poll better than current polls state.

The problem is that housing takes so long - between planning, tenders, actual construction etc. The time to start a radical housing plan was several years ago - even if they started tomorrow, they wouldnt make a dent in the housing issue by the time next election rolls around.

I went for a drive yesterday, all around the South West of Donegal, couldn't believe how many empty and closed up houses there was, we'd have closed houses near me but they are mostly holiday homes but these were just random houses,

Calhoun

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm surprised people are suggesting that FF are going to have any choice.

If there was an election tomorrow it'd come back something like

FG 50-55
SF 40-45
FF 25-30

Greens perhaps 8 and the rest swings and roundabouts.

FF either go back in with FG, or languish as second rank opposition party. In fact they'll probably be merged by 2030.

Fianna Gael. Has a nice ring to it.

The thing with FF is that they don't think their goose is cooked yet, how could they they still have old guard from the boom/bust years literally running the party.

Most other parties have seen some big changes in the past number of years and cleared out allot of the old guard.

Its something they are going to have to address eventually and if they numbers hold as they are and they head back to 2011 numbers you may see a complete rethink then.

The have two chances, one is if they can distinguish themselves in any meaningful way before the next election and the second is if opposition messes up on the doorstep.

Calhoun

timmyntc wrote: »

SF won't breeze it, but theyll definitely be #1 and likely will poll better than current polls state.

The problem is that housing takes so long - between planning, tenders, actual construction etc. The time to start a radical housing plan was several years ago - even if they started tomorrow, they wouldnt make a dent in the housing issue by the time next election rolls around.

The won't breeze it for sure but they have an ability to sell a strong narrative of a government that is ignorant of the needs of the people, has let foreign landlords (cuckoo funds) take over and has allowed situations where building standards have been sub par and people suffered.

I think even if they started off slow they would get a honeymoon period like FG got when they came in 2011.

ineedeuro

Calhoun wrote: »

The won't breeze it for sure but they have an ability to sell a strong narrative of a government that is ignorant of the needs of the people, has let foreign landlords (cuckoo funds) take over and has allowed situations where building standards have been sub par and people suffered.

I think even if they started off slow they would get a honeymoon period like FG got when they came in 2011.

Ireland need large rental companies. One of the main points of the last recession was the whole country is too focused on “getting on the property ladder”. The plan was to move from home ownership.
Ten years later and what are we doing? Well the exact same thing we done in the early 2000s and guess what, we will end up in the exact same place.

The sub par building standards you talk about happened prior to this current trend but we will End up back with them as people don’t see to care about quality anymore just build as many as possible

Remember in last recession everyone was supposed to move to town/cities. No more one off builds, big clown houses in middle of nowhere, more high rise and more rentals. Great plans

Now exactly what of that have we implemented?

rob316

ineedeuro wrote: »

If you say so, I don't see it. Anyone I know can afford rent or buy a house and I can tell you I ain't mixing in the elite circles. Yes people have same changes to meet their requirements, some would love to live in a city centre apartment but can't afford it so move out further, but that is no different to any other generation

Lets look at our recent history
2000's build houses build house build houses
2010's too many houses, knock them
2020's build house build houses
See a trend here?

Please note I am not saying the issue doesn't exist, just the a lot of people in Ireland it doesn't actually affect them as bad as the media is making it out. Health should be a concern for everyone

Affordability is only one part of it, there is a chronic supply issue that has been building for a decade. I have plenty of friends with 300k approval but you can't actually buy anything. Waiting lists are long for any new developments phases.
The rental market is like the wild wild west.

It is absolutely the biggest issue facing the country right now, in the future and since the last GE.

If it doesn't effect you or your children, count yourself lucky.

ineedeuro

rob316 wrote: »

Affordability is only one part of it, there is a chronic supply issue that has been building for a decade. I have plenty of friends with 300k approval but you can't actually buy anything. Waiting lists are long for any new developments phases.
The rental market is like the wild wild west.

It is absolutely the biggest issue facing the country right now, in the future and since the last GE.

If it doesn't effect you or your children, count yourself lucky.

Ireland has houses, location is the issue. We need to change the entire model which push's people towards cities and leaves town/villages to die. If we push companies to allow WFH as discussed this will help. Plus invest in public transport, train to Navan etc so you can build out satellite town.

At this stage building houses in major cities will not resolve the issue, we need a longer term plan. That also includes large scale rentals and not the local lad with 2 houses that can throw you out after 6 months.

Triangle

rob316 wrote: »

It is absolutely the biggest issue facing the country right now, in the future and since the last GE.

The pensions bomb is a bigger issue in the long term imo. Somethings gonna give unless they start planning for it now.

titan18

ineedeuro wrote: »

Ireland has houses, location is the issue. We need to change the entire model which push's people towards cities and leaves town/villages to die. If we push companies to allow WFH as discussed this will help. Plus invest in public transport, train to Navan etc so you can build out satellite town.

At this stage building houses in major cities will not resolve the issue, we need a longer term plan. That also includes large scale rentals and not the local lad with 2 houses that can throw you out after 6 months.

The large scale rentals aren't working either though as they're just investment vehicles and they're leaving places empty to keep rent high, and they can afford to do that. At least when it was the local lad with 2 houses, he couldn't, he'd drop the rent to get it rented out and having money coming in. There was no concern about the valuation on paper.

We also don't have close to the transport system for people to move to live in towns/villages, and it's pretty unlikely that will change.

ineedeuro

titan18 wrote: »

The large scale rentals aren't working either though as they're just investment vehicles and they're leaving places empty to keep rent high, and they can afford to do that. At least when it was the local lad with 2 houses, he couldn't, he'd drop the rent to get it rented out and having money coming in. There was no concern about the valuation on paper.

We also don't have close to the transport system for people to move to live in towns/villages, and it's pretty unlikely that will change.

Gossip is all that is, leaving places empty is not true. The biggest number of houses we have available are private owners who have a house and a holiday house etc.
Large scale rental works in every other country, so why do you think Ireland is different?

RandomViewer

ineedeuro wrote: »

Gossip is all that is, leaving places empty is not true. The biggest number of houses we have available are private owners who have a house and a holiday house etc.
Large scale rental works in every other country, so why do you think Ireland is different?

Costs, Dublin is a small city yet has notions that it has to be more expensive than every large city in the world,

ineedeuro

RandomViewer wrote: »

Costs, Dublin is a small city yet has notions that it has to be more expensive than every large city in the world,

Dublin issue is that we are building houses. Large scale housing estates should be scrapped and replaced with large scale apartments.
If people want to live in a house then they move outside the City. We have sprawl all over the place because people want to buy a house. In the long term in Dublin we will probably have to knock down huge amounts of houses and replace with apartments.

At this stage the government should say tough luck, we are going to stop planning fro houses and just build apartments. Houses can be build in the likes of Navan/Naas etc

titan18

ineedeuro wrote: »

Gossip is all that is, leaving places empty is not true. The biggest number of houses we have available are private owners who have a house and a holiday house etc.
Large scale rental works in every other country, so why do you think Ireland is different?

Of course that's true, there's plenty of apartments being left empty by REITs in Dublin. Also, i'm not sure large scale rental actually works in every country. There's been plenty of others where this has caused issues. I know Canada are in a similar situation to use where these companies are buying up houses and apartment blocks so that normal people can't afford to actually buy them and are stuck in a rental situation. It's a negative for these companies to have high home ownership in a country, and they have far more resources than a single buyer. I really don't know why we should be encouraging that.

ineedeuro

titan18 wrote: »

Of course that's true, there's plenty of apartments being left empty by REITs in Dublin. Also, i'm not sure large scale rental actually works in every country. There's been plenty of others where this has caused issues. I know Canada are in a similar situation to use where these companies are buying up houses and apartment blocks so that normal people can't afford to actually buy them and are stuck in a rental situation. It's a negative for these companies to have high home ownership in a country, and they have far more resources than a single buyer. I really don't know why we should be encouraging that.

Why? well just look at the last crash and see how many billion we had to get bailed out because of it. We are in the process of repeating the each same issue. People buying houses they can't and never will be able to afford. Fiddling paper work to make out they are earning more. Demanding houses in locations they would like to live in, not that they can afford to live in etc.

titan18

ineedeuro wrote: »

Why? well just look at the last crash and see how many billion we had to get bailed out because of it. We are in the process of repeating the each same issue. People buying houses they can't and never will be able to afford. Fiddling paper work to make out they are earning more. Demanding houses in locations they would like to live in, not that they can afford to live in etc.

I'd agree those are issues but going to a everyone rents in apartments model is a lot worse. What happens when people retire for one? Is everyone homeless at 65 if their pension can't cover the rent (and I doubt anyones pension can cover that)?

Shebean

So we can assume the wise overseers in FF/FG/Green are all renters? Many many Landlords in their number but few renters I'd imagine.
Owning a home is often the only asset and security working people can aspire to. Years of government shilling for investment funds and developers have made that further out of reach for people.

ineedeuro

Shebean wrote: »

So we can assume the wise overseers in FF/FG/Green are all renters? Many many Landlords in their number but few renters I'd imagine.
Owning a home is often the only asset and security working people can aspire to. Years of government shilling for investment funds and developers have made that further out of reach for people.

So what do people in every other country aspire to? when you see the likes of Germany and people living in major cities rent their entire life.

No idea what the comment about "shilling" has to do with anything?

ineedeuro

titan18 wrote: »

I'd agree those are issues but going to a everyone rents in apartments model is a lot worse. What happens when people retire for one? Is everyone homeless at 65 if their pension can't cover the rent (and I doubt anyones pension can cover that)?

People all over the World rent their entire life, are you saying people in other European countries are thrown out at 65 because they can't afford rent?

Yes rent is crazy now, but instead of concentrating on building houses to "fix" the problem. We should be fixing the long term rental issue and not building houses to buy at all.

timmyntc

ineedeuro wrote: »

People all over the World rent their entire life, are you saying people in other European countries are thrown out at 65 because they can't afford rent?

Yes rent is crazy now, but instead of concentrating on building houses to "fix" the problem. We should be fixing the long term rental issue and not building houses to buy at all.

They have affordable rents and proper security of tenure. Which we have neither here. Also they have apartments large enough to actually raise a family in, unlike the shoeboxes with paper thin walls that are put up here.

Floppybits

ineedeuro wrote: »

So what do people in every other country aspire to? when you see the likes of Germany and people living in major cities rent their entire life.

No idea what the comment about "shilling" has to do with anything?

If they government want people to rent then there needs to robust legislation in place to protect tenants and landlords and not the mediocre crap we have at the minute. I bet the legislation and general economy is managed better in Germany that allows for people to rent and buy later in life unlike here. The second thing is that the apartments and the surrounding areas have to be fit for purpose and in this country that is not the case. So that would require bigger apartment footage and more green spaces to allow for this.

Most people would have no problems renting or living in apartments if the proper structures were put in place but it is plain to see in this country in it is not. It is haphazard and set up for the investor, developer and Landlord to gouge as much as they can out of the unfortunate people that have to rent.

ineedeuro

timmyntc wrote: »

They have affordable rents and proper security of tenure. Which we have neither here. Also they have apartments large enough to actually raise a family in, unlike the shoeboxes with paper thin walls that are put up here.

That's not true is it, the apartments in Ireland are no smaller than any in Europe. Plus you have all sort of sizes in apartments

Why do you think Ikea have all the solutions to maximise the space in your apartment? I have stayed in flats across Europe where you have the bed up in the air to give you space in the room to have a desk etc. Maximise the space in the apartment.

ineedeuro

Floppybits wrote: »

If they government want people to rent then there needs to robust legislation in place to protect tenants and landlords and not the mediocre crap we have at the minute. I bet the legislation and general economy is managed better in Germany that allows for people to rent and buy later in life unlike here. The second thing is that the apartments and the surrounding areas have to be fit for purpose and in this country that is not the case. So that would require bigger apartment footage and more green spaces to allow for this.

Most people would have no problems renting or living in apartments if the proper structures were put in place but it is plain to see in this country in it is not. It is haphazard and set up for the investor, developer and Landlord to gouge as much as they can out of the unfortunate people that have to rent.

I don't disagree but would it not be better to concentrate on legislations than do the exact same thing we done 20 years ago? fix the rental system instead and build apartments instead of building houses which will never meet the population requirements for that area when apartments can

Shebean

ineedeuro wrote: »

So what do people in every other country aspire to? when you see the likes of Germany and people living in major cities rent their entire life.

No idea what the comment about "shilling" has to do with anything?

Heavily regulated rental market, cheap rent and in the 60's and 70's banks wanted deposits few could afford.
Of course Ireland will be mostly renters in the coming years, not by choice. I'm quite confident FF/FG affiliates will own.


'Shilling' is them putting more effort into advocating for policies concerned with the well being of investment funds, developers and themselves, than the affairs of the working tax payer.

Calhoun

ineedeuro wrote: »

Ireland need large rental companies. One of the main points of the last recession was the whole country is too focused on “getting on the property ladder”. The plan was to move from home ownership.
Ten years later and what are we doing? Well the exact same thing we done in the early 2000s and guess what, we will end up in the exact same place.

The sub par building standards you talk about happened prior to this current trend but we will End up back with them as people don’t see to care about quality anymore just build as many as possible

Remember in last recession everyone was supposed to move to town/cities. No more one off builds, big clown houses in middle of nowhere, more high rise and more rentals. Great plans

Now exactly what of that have we implemented?

Do we though? It would seem that in order to attract the foreign funds we are giving them carte blanche to do as they please without any proper tax being applied. They started with apartments and moved on to sucking up housing estates, sure why wouldn't they its well established in other countries that investment funds can make a killing off of situations like ours.

I would have thought the last recession was fueled by easy to access credit, the over reliance on private sector too solve Irelands housing problem and the selling off of huge amount of public sector housing inventory.

Who is at fault if not the government in power for the past 20-30 years? I say the government because with both the main parties in government you can now say its a combination of both. Everything you have described is a result of government policy.

The question is what they said they wanted to do and what was their actual intent? Either the are just bad at planning or they have conspired to build a market for overseas investors on the back of Irish people.

As i said its like shooting fish in a barrel to construct a narrative against them.

ineedeuro

Shebean wrote: »

Heavily regulated rental market, cheap rent and in the 60's and 70's banks wanted deposits few could afford.
Of course Ireland will be mostly renters in the coming years, not by choice. I'm quite confident FF/FG affiliates will own.


'Shilling' is them putting more effort into advocating for policies concerned with the well being of investment funds, developers and themselves, than the affairs of the working tax payer.

The biggest landlord and growing is Healy Rae clan. A quick search and TD's from every party are landlords. Personally I think no TD should be allowed to be a landlord but I doubt any party is going to stop it when they all have fingers in the pie

Floppybits

ineedeuro wrote: »

I don't disagree but would it not be better to concentrate on legislations than do the exact same thing we done 20 years ago? fix the rental system instead and build apartments instead of building houses which will never meet the population requirements for that area when apartments can

It sure would be better to fix the legislations around this area rather than do what has been done in the last 20 years but the government seem to have no interest in doing that. There needs to be a national plan put in place to do this that has the buy in of all the parties in Dail Eireann and not just those that are in government. Alot of the problems in this country need to be solved this way rather than leaving to those parties in government who then seem to be caring about investors and party supporters rather that the country.

ineedeuro

Calhoun wrote: »

Do we though? It would seem that in order to attract the foreign funds we are giving them carte blanche to do as they please without any proper tax being applied. They started with apartments and moved on to sucking up housing estates, sure why wouldn't they its well established in other countries that investment funds can make a killing off of situations like ours.

I would have thought the last recession was fueled by easy to access credit, the over reliance on private sector too solve Irelands housing problem and the selling off of huge amount of public sector housing inventory.

Who is at fault if not the government in power for the past 20-30 years? I say the government because with both the main parties in government you can now say its a combination of both. Everything you have described is a result of government policy.

The question is what they said they wanted to do and what was their actual intent? Either the are just bad at planning or they have conspired to build a market for overseas investors on the back of Irish people.

As i said its like shooting fish in a barrel to construct a narrative against them.

The section in bold is not correct as this is common across the World. Same in UK but I think they have a little extra tax?

Based on the posting here it seems people are happy to blindly do the exact same thing they done in 2000's and when it all comes tumbling down blame the political party in power. At this stage that will probably be Sinn Fein so that will be fun

Shebean

ineedeuro wrote: »

The section in bold is not correct as this is common across the World. Same in UK but I think they have a little extra tax?

Based on the posting here it seems people are happy to blindly do the exact same thing they done in 2000's and when it all comes tumbling down blame the political party in power. At this stage that will probably be Sinn Fein so that will be fun

No idea how you gleaned that.
In the 2000's we sold off public land and housing. We used PPP. We had readily available credit for anyone wanted it pretty much. That was all 100% the fault of government, greedy financiers and a public told the boom would get boomier. Unless you are a failed large business owner, a bank shareholder or an RTE presenter, you had to bail yourself out of any mortgage or other debts accrued.
Can you point to anyone seeking a return?

blanch152

ineedeuro wrote: »

The biggest landlord and growing is Healy Rae clan. A quick search and TD's from every party are landlords. Personally I think no TD should be allowed to be a landlord but I doubt any party is going to stop it when they all have fingers in the pie

The Healy Raes aren't a patch on Sinn Fein who own property in every county in Ireland.

timmyntc

blanch152 wrote: »

The Healy Raes aren't a patch on Sinn Fein who own property in every county in Ireland.

Blanch we need to talk..

This is an intervention