FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633793#Comment_118633793

One side of FFG gets to blame the other and thus save more seats. Eamon Ryan will probably be asleep and will not notice.

Regards...jmcc

Fattybojangles

Who in FG thought it would be a good idea to send Goldman Sachs Jennifer double barrel onto the Claire Byrne show? That's a step away from sending the rich guy from the monopoly board FFS talk about finding the biggest sterotypical toff they could find and sending her on completely out of touch.

I thought Tony Groves contribution was the best really nailed it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633748#Comment_118633748

What second and third seat FFGers?

That list is very short.

Jennifer Murnane O'Connor, FF, Carlow-Kilkenny

Niamh Smyth, FF, Cavan-Monaghan

Aindrias Moynihan, FF, Cork North-West

Michael McGrath, FF, Cork South-Central

Neale Richmond, FG, Dublin Rathdown

Sean Fleming, FF, Laois-Offaly

Robert Troy, FF, Longford-Westmeath

Alan Dillon, FG, Mayo

That is a total of 8 TDs in that position, some of them in party strongholds that will return a second seat next time. Your analysis is superficial.

Floppybits

The big issue in this government is how the hand over will go, if we are being honest FG have behaved abysmally so far in this government especially with Varadkar looking to under cut Martin at every opportunity. Will FF behave the same way especially in the run up to the election, there have been some hard pills for FF to swallow in the first part of this government such as having to back Varadkar in the no confidence motion and then again having to back Coveney and all the while they lost 2 of their own in Callely and Cowen.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634268#Comment_118634268

Order of election rather than second or third FF or FG seat in a constituency. The fratricide effect were a party or FFG may have enough votes for a seat but those votes are spread over multiple candidates is a very real one. It lost FG at least one seat that went to the Greens after two FGers knocked each other out. That fratricide effect may play out on a larger scale in the next GE because the electorate has begun to think of FF and FG as a single party and lower preferences are, according to opinion polls, moving between them.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634365#Comment_118634365

Martin had better watch his back with those two. O'Callaghan was beginning to make noises about becoming leader last month.

Regards...jmcc

Floppybits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634632#Comment_118634632

I don't think Martin has a problem really, yeah he is not a great leader but when you look at FF there isn't anyone there to really challenge him, he is the best of a bad bunch. I know people are talking about O'Callaghan but I don't see the appeal of O'Callaghan. He has been keeping a low profile, maybe working away in the background are grass roots and also his seat is not a safe one. What has O'Calllaghan done really to be considered leadership material?

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633718#Comment_118633718

Like The Greens? Member The Green Party?

Where did support for FF and FG go? PBP? SF took a bite. Accept it.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634857#Comment_118634857

Very little but he seems somewhat more competent than Martin. The problem is that he is in a highly contested constituency and, if he became leader, he could very well end up losing his seat. Donohoe's kite-flying before Christmas was interesting. He mentioned that he worked well with Michael McGrath and he's another possible for FF leader. O'Callaghan might have made a good minister for justice instead of the present occupant. Martin may have considered him too much of a threat to give him a powerful ministry and his decision to effectively stay out of any minor ministries may have been a good one.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634625#Comment_118634625

If you are correct and lower preferences are moving between FF and FG candidates, that is good news for those parties.

Up until very recently, most FF voters would give their preferences to anyone but FG and vice versa. If the opposite is now happening, that should see increased seat numbers as lower eliminations benefit those staying in the race. Certainly, with FF/FG/Greens holding steady at 50% or over in the polls, the government should be easily returned.

The electoral arithmetic clearly shows smaller parties losing to SF in the next election.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635111#Comment_118635111

It is very bad news for FF/FG because FF and FG candidates will be in direct competition. Against SF, both parties could unnecessarily lose seats because votes will be spread FF<>FG and FG<>FF rather than simply FF<>FF and FG<>FG and then to each other. That means that without an electoral pact and joint candidate strategy, there will be unnecessary losses. The worst case scenario, without a joint candidate strategy, is an accidental SF majority or close to it.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635237#Comment_118635237

This is all very wishy washy and really doesn't take anything apart from current headline poll support into account. You also seem to be assuming that neither party has a clue about vote management. Local loyalties, candidate recognition and popularity also all play a part.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635237#Comment_118635237

We may be talking at cross-purposes here.

In certain situations, individual FG TDs may lose out to FF TDs because a lower eliminated FG candidate transfers to FF instead of FG. However, at the overall State level, the total number of FF and FG TDs will increase because of more effective transfers between the parties.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635308#Comment_118635308

Those are national support level polls and are on samples of approximately 1,000 voters. They have a high Margin of Error (+/-3% or so). FG, for example, had too many candidates in 2020. SF had too few. Getting the number right is quite difficult. Vote management doesn't matter when candidates start fratriciding. That will be a problem for FF/FG without a joint candidate strategy.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635329#Comment_118635329

Those vote transfers between canidates won't mean a thing if they don't get candidates elected. Poll toppers will be relatively safe but even Varadkar only got elected on the fifth count.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635450#Comment_118635450

You obviously don't understand the electoral system.

Take Dublin South-Central, four seats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_South-Central_%28D%C3%A1il_constituency%29#2020_general_election

At the end of the 5th Count, FF's Catherine Ardagh was eliminated.

1,153 votes went to Joan Collins

1,643 votes went to Catherine Byrne

1,665 votes went to Patrick Costello

1,137 went nowhere.

Now, let's just look at these 1,137 votes. Now you say that FF voters will be more likely to transfer to FG candidates. So what would have happened if one-third of these 1,137 voters had decided to vote 1 FF, 2 FG instead of 1 FF? Well Catherine Byrne would have taken the seat ahead of Joan Collins and FG would have one more TD.

Now perhaps you can show me a worked example of how transfers increasing between FF and FG would cost them seats.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635441#Comment_118635441

Polls 3 years from an election. And this is all supposition on your part with no evidence at all of such things.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635550#Comment_118635550

Well it obviously worries some people enough that they'll spend time disputing it. You have a point, but polls and the last general and local are all we have. There is a trend.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635237#Comment_118635237

Any agreed candidate similar to UUP/DUP headcount won't really work outside the cities as a large number of the votes are for the candidate not the party, Rural TDs are usually judged on work done not party allegiance, going to be a hard sell in constituencies where travel by car to work is prominent, The motorists will have vengeance on election day.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633429#Comment_118633429

Donohoe won't be leader, too many awkward moments.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635111#Comment_118635111

Polls aren't reliable, Used to get polled regularly 2010-11, some very limited answers , by phrasing the questions in a certain way your choice of answer could be leading.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635683#Comment_118635683

Outside of an election cycle polls are little more than a snapshot of the public view of the government, which is more often than not negative. For the Opposition it gives them ammunition to seem more knowledgeable. It's only when we get within spitting distance of an election, i.e. the last two weeks, that they become a more reliable indicator of voting intentions.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636020#Comment_118636020

I agreed. I'm saying its all we have to go on. If they weren't worth bothering with we wouldn't have them or people telling us to dismiss them. We've also got the last local and general election results.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635111#Comment_118635111

The electoral arithmetic clearly shows smaller parties losing to SF in the next election.

Yes this is unquestionably the SF aim. It may make them the undisputed alternative government but leaves them with few potential partners. Since 2011 we've had three variations of government, a coalition, a minority and a full fledged Scandi across the middle coalition. Some parties are now more open to such ideas and the Greens have shown that a smaller party can still get policies enacted.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636062#Comment_118636062

Locals are often unreliable as barometers as voters commonly use them as a way to punish parties. For example SF lost 78 seats and the two main parties gained got 12 and 20 respectively with the Greens picking up 37 and the SDs 19. The last GE was inconclusive, as the next one will probably be and we'll see more mixing and matching for government.

Cluedo Monopoly

I cannot see FF transfers going to FG at next GE. Quite the opposite in fact. FG have undermined FF during the coalition, esp Leo. FF diehards will be loathe to transfer to FG. They are actually more likely to transfer to SF. Fine Gael will struggle to get a transfer from anyone.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636146#Comment_118636146

Great to see some differences in opinion between some of the anti-government posters. We had jmcc expressing an opinion that transfers between the parties would increase as a result of the coalition and this would mean that they would lose seats.

I used a real-life example to show him that they would actually gain seats if that happened, but I didn't express an opinion on whether he was right about the transfers increasing.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636071#Comment_118636071

It really depends on how much of their core values SF are prepared to ditch. Not even their own voters want a border poll anytime soon.

At the moment, the three government parties will be comfortably re-elected based on the polls. SF will be a larger opposition party. It is only if FF or FG want a change or SF make real efforts to drop their silly policies that we will see a change in government. However, if SF drop their policies and become FF-lite, what will have changed? Other than some nastier criminals being in government.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636336#Comment_118636336

Thats how opinions work when not following a government script. Its great.

You do realise not every critic is a member of SF? Neither are all the people who voted for them.

I can't see SF becoming more like the criminals in FF/FG increasing their support. People who voted for them want a change.

FrancieBrady

The election campaign will be interesting. Will the electorate tolerate FF and FG saying we will get the same again if we vote for them?

At the moment it seems they will, but the second part of the term is what does the damage to the incumbents.

There is also the fact that they will basically be merged into one party to all intents and purposes.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636336#Comment_118636336

Unlike you, I am never wrong. FG are transfer toxic after 11 years of copying FF. Rem Dublin Bay South anyone? A FG stronghold with 2 seats in 2016.

I also expect FG to run fewer candidates and SF to run significantly more in next election.

FrancieBrady

I'm no fan of Ming but he makes a fair point. No wonder all Flynn could do when he was getting filleted by a member of the panel was to stutter 'but Sinn Fein, Sinn Fein'

https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1493602365294923780

.

gmisk

This is literally the most cringeworthy thing I have ever seen from a political party....honestly who signed this off???

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1493656801006522373?t=ef8QN80d31D9Pkct-CaOJw&s=19

Floppybits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637447#Comment_118637447

Never mind the cringeworthiness of minsta on insta imagine being the poor schmuck who has to go out to promote and defend it.

Suckit

Is the Taoiseach on Tik Tok?

Ahhh... Can't delete.

That is full cringeworthy.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637403#Comment_118637403

Watched it earlier. The Traveller lad made some fair points. He also stung Josepha for campaigning against Travelers with JCMN talking about equality. Eddie Hobbs was coming across like a Trumper. All the big execs are ready to leave if SF get in 😎 If there's money to make they'll stick around. They couldn't give two **** if it's FF, FG or SF. Talk about overinflated sense of self importance. Like Eddie Hobbs has the ear of corporate Ireland. Every non party affiliate spoke well. Especially that fact checker lad calling out the developer, jurno and JCMN's bull.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637902#Comment_118637902

That fact checker lad is the great Tony Groves who is the co-founder of the Tortiseshack podcast.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636504#Comment_118636504

It is not a normal government term to be fair.

It is something worth bearing in mind however, that over 50% did give this govt 1st preference votes and the govt parties still have ~45% support in opinion polls. The lack of support in them is somewhat overstated at times.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637447#Comment_118637447

I think it shows that you understand the appeal of Insta' about as much as I do!

Cal4567

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637447#Comment_118637447

All this does for me is to remind me I've yet to catch up on series 8 of Brooklyn Nine Nine.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635542#Comment_118635542

Here's something from just before the 2016 GE when some FGers and the media, couldn't see what was quite obvious:

"FG may have lost 4% on core between two close RedC polls that may be using the same methodology. That's something that a lot of FGers seem to be trying to avoid discussing. Now if FG continues to lose points, then a 2002 situation is a possible outcome. Once trends start to go negative for any party, it can be difficult to reverse them. And at a certain point, they cascade. FG's losses in percentage terms in 2002 were not drastic but they cascaded to result in a higher than expected seat loss. The FG vote was 22.5%. The collapse of Labour means that possible transfers upon which some FG candidates may be relying may not occur or may not occur in sufficient numbers to help the FG candidate before they are eliminated. There is also the issue of genepool FGers like Renua eating into FG votes and though not gaining any seats, these genepool FGers may cost sitting or hopeful FG candidates a seat. If the leaders debates go badly against Enda Kenny, then it creates more problems for FG. If these things occur in combination, then FG may be stuck in a kind of group of death with FF and SF with perhaps fifteen to twenty seven seats between the largest and smallest party."

https://politics.ie/threads/paddy-power-red-c-poll-10-feb-fg-30-ff-18-lab-8-sf-17-ind-25.245832/page-17#post-9990996

As it turned out, FG,FF and SF ended up with just 27 seats between the largest, FG, and smallest, SF, in that group of death. Labour was reduced to just 7 seats despite expectations that it would win almost double that number. I suppose that calling the spread in a GE and predicting the impact of transfer trends in FG returning fewer seats than expected is not on the same scale of your worked example.

Regards...jmcc

Gant21

They will all hop into bed again to keep sf out.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639017#Comment_118639017

There won't be room in the bed for all of them. :)

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638889#Comment_118638889

Last I checked the three parties were on 50% or more in each of the last few opinion polls.

It certainly shows the lie of certain posters that the government don't have support.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639098#Comment_118639098

And which party is currently the largest in the polls and has most seats in the Dail? Merely claming the Big Three parties represent over 50% is very misleading.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638889#Comment_118638889

So they will be presenting as a choice for voters in the next election?

FG have nothing to worry about so, they'll still be in government if they fall to the mid teens. Nice work if you can get it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639192#Comment_118639192

Never said anything about a Big Three, you are misquoting and misrepresenting me. I said the three government parties.

This is not the UK, it doesn't matter which party is the biggest. It matters which parties are mature enough to form a coalition.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639193#Comment_118639193

Who knows? It seems that most of the electorate have no problem with a FF/FG/Green government as all are more or less holding their general election position.

The alternatives are pretty scarce. Sinn Fein aren't a credible alternative, so we appear stuck with this government, or a variation of it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639235#Comment_118639235

It's the only way those figures are relevant to the next election.

Can't wait for the campaign and FF/FG campaigning together.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639193#Comment_118639193

I don't entirely understand the question, but if you mean will they present themselves as a choice together for the election then of course not. Ultimately the chances of even close to single party majority that FF enjoyed in the early 2000s is close to non-existent though, so some form of coalition or other will be the govt next time round.

However, presenting the "electorate" as having turned against FF/FG/GP isn't really accurate, considering about half of it supports them.