FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

jmcc · 28-04-2022 2:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118986913#Comment_118986913

It is already showing up in recent opinion polls that have questions about second preferences. the FF/FG voters transfer strongly between each party. That trend is an interesting one as the two parties used to be traditional enemies with clearly defined identities. The lack of differentiation is quite dangerous in that the two parties are now competing directly for the same votes rather than competing for votes across the political spectrum.

Regards...jmcc

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118987869#Comment_118987869

The greens would need to be very careful what they drop kick towards Europe. They have a proposed bill to ban all forms of LNG while our energy regulator has stated our present source of gas from the the U.K. is unsecure and is not in compliance with E.U. directives. The E.U. only recognise two energy sources as being transitional, gas and nuclear, and that includes LNG which they are attempting to fill the gap caused by the gas shortage caused by the war in Ukraine using U.S. LNG.

The Irish greens could find themselves having to explain some very sticky questions to the E.U. if the E.U are forced to cast a cold eye over turf as I doubt while doing so they would just ignore our none compliance on gas.

Brucie Bonus · 28-04-2022 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988905#Comment_118988905

I would have previously hoped the greens were the kind of party to put their ethics and beliefs, good or bad, before pensions, but it doesn't seem so. I'd rather parties succeed or fail based on principle.

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 3:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988802#Comment_118988802

It is easier explained, like I have done previously on this thread, that the opposition and the carry on online of supporters is driving other parties to a "anyone but ....." you can fill in the blank's yourself

jmcc · 28-04-2022 3:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118987729#Comment_118987729

I think that Martin is a neo-Unionist who doesn't belong in FF. That's why he reacted as a neo-Unionist, much like Flanagan and John Bruton, to the Black and Tans/RIC commemoration. Bruton was even more of an embrarrassment to FG but he wasn't the leader of the party. In 2016, FF mistook a natural bounce-back as a rise in support for FF. The C&S was the stupidest move for FF but totally in keeping with Martin's forlock tugging subservience to FG. Blowing the 2020 GE when the electorate wanted anyone but FG in government was one of the stupidest and most incompetent political moves ever. SF capitalised on Martin's incompetence.

Kelly is unusual in that he's not the typical Labour TD. He's not a YATSE (Yet Another Teacher Seeking Election) and has real world work experience. That's why he tried to do the best job possible when handled the Water Tax issue. As soon as Bacik was elected, it was inevitable that he'd be stabbed in the back. Labour has become the Irish Times dinner party and is completely disconnected from reality.

Some of the Greens are ideologically driven. That's behind their obsession with turf. Ironically, some of the Greens were elected on SF transfers in 2020 and those transfers are unlikely to happen in the upcoming GE. Some in FF realise the damage that the turf war will do to FF's rural support and are wary of Martin's position. Anything that Martin does to appear to be standing up to the Greens is really being done by Martin to save his position until December. It is typical FF short-termist thinking.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988738#Comment_118988738

Spurge? Do you want to have a go at answering the question? I know the list is long but please persevere.

Hint: None of them.

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 3:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988995#Comment_118988995

Why? it seems to be common around here to fire out something and then demand an answer, yet the same is never reciprocate. I have already said I don't support or vote for FG

If you want a review of every TD who has ever been in FG I am sure you have the time to do it, I don't. You can then do a review of the values of the party and make a decision if the TD did or didn't meet them. I have no interest, thank you

blanch152 · 28-04-2022 3:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118987849#Comment_118987849

The turf ban is still coming.

What is truly worrying is the depth of opposition to the government's plans to combat climate change. It is almost as if the opposition don't care about the future of our young people.

jmcc · 28-04-2022 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118987296#Comment_118987296

A few seats but nothing else.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 3:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989043#Comment_118989043

It's surprising after all these years the ban of turf seems to be some sort of a surprise for some parties. Have they been living under a rock for the last 20 years?

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 4:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988992#Comment_118988992

Martin`s problem when it comes to dealing with Unionist "sensibilities" is that he is an appeaser. If he went up and shot himself in the head in Stormont as a blood sacrifice he could not appease them. He blew 2020 imo in 2016 when he agreed the C&S and left FF as wide open to SF criticism as FG but without any of the perks or the ability to put forward any meaningful proposals. It was insane and I wonder was it anything to do with him not being the first FF leader who would not have been a full Taoiseach rather than a half one, something he still had to accept, and was grateful for in 2020.

Kelly may have been a different bred to the usual Labour T.D.s, but for someone who had hopes of becoming leader taking over the fiasco from Hogan when Labour had been elected on a policy of no water charges was madness. He should have ran a mile from it, because everyone knew what was coming down the road for Labour at that point. Even if they may not have realised just how bad it was going to be.

The Greens are beginning to see the politically reality when the rubber of ideology hits the road. They picked up handy seats in 2020 due to SF not running enough candidates and looked the most likely on the left to be harmless enough. Both of those they are not going to have the luxury off next time out. Martin is in a spot in that if he does want to hold on to December he now has to stand up to the Greens or his own will take him out. If he does hold on until December then I can see him gone at that stage whether he wants too or not. "giving a new leader time before the next GE blah blah" will be given as the reason, but after this turf war whoever replaces him is not going to get the Greens the easy ride they have had with Martin.Varadkar or no Varadkar I would not see it as any different for the Greens going forward with FG either.

jmcc · 28-04-2022 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118988965#Comment_118988965

The facts and the data don't support your position.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 28-04-2022 4:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989172#Comment_118989172

It would be funny if FF got rid of him before December in the same way that he got rid of Brian Cowen. He might be left as half-taoiseach but removed as leader of FF.

Regards...jmcc

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 4:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989043#Comment_118989043

I remember you telling us the same about domestic water charges, and that under E.U directives it was a done deal.

How has that worked out ?

blanch152 · 28-04-2022 4:14pm

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/21b16-minister-mcentee-receives-cabinet-approval-to-reform-irish-defamation-law/#:~:text=The%20Minister%20noted%20that%20today's,right%20of%20access%20to%20justice%E2%80%9D.

The government deserves criticism for its failure to move more quickly to change the law on defamation.

We have seen this week at least one frivilous case taken by a politician availing of the government's failure in this regard.

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 4:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989182#Comment_118989182

Fact's and data? really.....Which ones?

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 4:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989196#Comment_118989196

It would be ironic, but if his own take him out before December, unless their new leader said he/she was happy for him to remain until then as half Taoiseach, I honestly could not see it as happening.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989016#Comment_118989016

I always answer questions no matter how naive. You brought up the FFG values. So you don't like FG either - would you prefer a FF list so?

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 6:22pm

Finally some action. A team going in to get those lazy nurses working and remind them how good the ratio is.

HSE experts to tackle Limerick hospital overcrowding crisis (limerickpost.ie)

HEALTH Minister Stephen Donnelly has ordered the HSE to deploy an expert team to University Hospital Limerick (UHL) as part of an emergency plan to ease crisis levels of patient overcrowding, as 111 patients lay on trolleys in hospital corridors yesterday (Wednesday).

Minister Donnelly said he was “very concerned” about patient care at UHL as management struggled to deal with record levels of patients waiting for beds after being admitted to the hospital.

Figures published by the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation (INMO) showed that in the previous week, at least 649 patients were cramped together on trolleys in the emergency department and along corridors elsewhere in the hospital.

However, the figures are in reality much higher as trolley statistics are not reported during weekends, which is the busiest period for many hospitals.

“It’s chaotic, the worst I’ve ever seen it in here, and that is saying something, because I thought I had previously witnessed it at its worst. There is just no joined up thinking, no communication, no plan, not enough beds, you name it, it’s just terrible in here,” said a member of staff who did not wish to be identified.

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 6:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989730#Comment_118989730

I didn't in fact, I was responding to a ridiculous comment about FF and FG, I just pointed out the values of the parties are different and you went off on some tangent trying to attack current and ex-TD's in FG as if that had some relevance.

You can review every TD in the Dail if you want, current and past, I am sure someone would read it, I certainly won't....

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 6:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989780#Comment_118989780

I proved there were many many FG politicians that since 2011 (New Politics release) that have not lived the values you showed and were abusing their positions for personal gain. Do you concur? Or do you deny?

jmcc · 28-04-2022 6:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989216#Comment_118989216

Opinion polls and history. (I think it was a recent RedC poll) They were showing that FFers were more likely to transfer to FG and vice versa. Basically what is happening is a long term merging of FF and FG because FF has moved away from its centrist and Left of centre roots. It was a political movement to some extent and the cumman system meant that it was effectively plugged into all aspects of Irish society. When Ahern and his gang got into power, they destroyed it and Cowen effectively finished it. Rather than locally selected candidates, FFHQ selected/approved candidates became the norm. The double jobbing councillor/TD link was also broken under Ahern. While this was a good thing it also disconnected the Dail's spawning grounds from the Dail. All that's left now for the wannabes and never-weres is the Seanad. Making the leap from council to Dail is much more difficult now.

Ireland used to have a 2.5 party model with Labour being the half party. There were some fringe parties like the PDs and the Greens who were useful to make up the numbers on occasion. In 2013, the political model started to change to a Big Three model and Labour's position begain to collapse. This largely went unnoticed by the political correspondents in the media because none of them have any background in analysis of data and models. The Big Three model is the most complicated because no two of the Big Three parties have enough seats to form a government.

Even as Labour support started to collapse, FG shills on various fora were claiming that Labour's support was around 10%. (FG needed Labour as its half party.) It wasn't. I called the spread on the Big Three parties for the 2016 on another forum. What a lot of people don't seem to understand is that the electorate changes.

Almost half a generation has passed since the bursting of the property bubble. Many of those who grew up in the aftermath of that FF/FG/PD caused economic disaster are now eligible to vote. They aren't voting FF/FG. The FF demographics are older and SF is better supported in the younger demographics. Would you still vote for the incompetent morons (Varadkar, Harris and FG) responsible for the Children's Hospital mess? Would you vote for the morons who nearly destroyed the economy and bailed out their bankster buddies? That's the History that is destroying the FFG vote. People who can't buy a house or find it too expensive to rent in cities like Dublin blame FFG. That's why SF is solidly around 30% in the opinion polls. FF and FG are two Right of centre parties fishing in the same puddle for votes. SF, having effectively taken much of the Left of centre has now moved to the centre and is very much the old style FF. As for "Labour", it is just another YATSE party (Yet Another School Teacher Seeking Election) adored by the Irish Times and RTE and despised by voters. On its current polling figures, it will be lucky to return two TDs after the upcoming GE.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 6:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989844#Comment_118989844

So no facts and data?

So you have nothing to say I was incorrect. Thank you for the update👍️

jmcc · 28-04-2022 6:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989218#Comment_118989218

Pure Karma. :) There were some moves among backbenchers a while ago with virtual rubber chicken meetings being held on Zoom. The firing of the Calleary and Cowen to appease FG didn't go down well among the FF backbenchers and Jim O'Callaghan was being considered as a replacement. That wsa before FF polled 5% in the Dublin Bay South bye-election with Deirdre of the Sorrows. I think, from reading various reports, that Martin is becoming increasingly isolated in FF. A few good opinion polls for FF could see it all kicking off again as FFers regain their confidence.

Regards...jmcc

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 6:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989854#Comment_118989854

No facts or data! What post are you replying too because it cannot be the one @jmcc posted.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 7:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989854#Comment_118989854

I think you should be thanking him for the lesson to be honest.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 7:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989874#Comment_118989874

Can you see FG getting 2nd preferences from anywhere? I cant even see FF voters giving FG preferences after the way Leo and Simon have behaved. Every seat will be a fight.

FrancieBrady · 28-04-2022 7:21pm

Did Roderick just blurt this out or did he think about what he was saying???

https://twitter.com/dubsoulrebel/status/1519438614899433472

charlie14 · 28-04-2022 7:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989874#Comment_118989874

I could not get the speculation on Jim O`Callaghan. Other than perhaps them looking for someone from Dublin. He just strikes me as a rather cranky cantankerous individual that would fight with himself if there was nobody else around. Whatever chance he may have had he blew it with the Dublin Bay South by-election. Conroy may not have been a great candidate, but he did look to have worked to make sure there was no chance of him having to run alongside a sitting FF T.D. come the next G.E.Had he had any cop on he would have worked to try and get her a half decent return as her going on the ticket next time around was not going to stop him taking the one possible seat there.

Calleary as far as remember was deputy leader, but whether he still is I have no idea, but I cannot se him getting it. McGrath I have seen mentioned but going back again to Cork may not appeal to enough to get him the gig. The other lad that was sacked that caused resentment could be a different story. Cowen appears to be well got with FF members and that sacking and this turf war will be doing him no harm either.

Pity Willie O`Dea would not go for it, but far as I know he is bowing out. At least with the bold Willie you would be guaranteed a bit of entertainment.

jmcc · 28-04-2022 7:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989967#Comment_118989967

Apart from FF voters, Labour voters. There was a floating vote that used to move between FF and Labour but Labour became too close to FG. The Labour vote was a kind of trickle down vote where its TDs depended mainly on transfers to get elected. When those transfers disappeared (2016) the party effectively disappeared too. As it has been out of power for so long, most voters consider it just another fringe party and are concentrating their preferences on parties that may be in government with a sufficient number of seats. The fear of SF is also going to drive some older FF or FG voters into voting for the devils they know. The most logical thing for FF and FG to do would be to announce an electoral pact and have a joint candidate strategy. Without them, SF could get close to enough seats to form a government with only a few non-SF TDs because FF and FG candidates would fratricide (nightmare scenario for FF/FG) each other with only the poll-topper FF/FG candidates getting elected. The next GE is going to be a rural battle and it would be better for FG to have Coveney as leader (or even Donohoe).

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 8:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989962#Comment_118989962

A lesson in what exactly? It's a post which has nothing to do with the actual question. The claim was that FF and FG are the same, then the poster said that FF and FG are getting transferred, when I offered a reason why I was told I was wrong and they had "facts and data"

When I asked for these "facts and data" what I got back was a post about parties like Labour, a dig at teachers etc but not a single fact or data to back this up. Comments about Cowan etc

That is an opinion, nothing else. Which does nothing to suggest my opinion that FF and FG voters at this stage will vote for anyone apart for a certain party.

So please explain why someone who claimed to have fact and data, didn't provide any of them and you want me to thank them?

jmcc · 28-04-2022 8:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990025#Comment_118990025

O'Callaghan is an establishment candidate and, more importantly, a Dublin candidate. He was smart enough not to take a junior minister job while he was more suited to the Justice portfolio. Instead, FG gave it to McEntee (not a good move). DBS was a very tricky election because it would have been an easy FG win had Varadkar and his clique of mediocrities not engaged in that fight with Kate O'Connell. I don't tink it was winnable for FF and it was one time where the opinion polls were accurate. The propaganda from RTE and the IT for Bacik helped but the real reason why she won was simply because FG and FF screwed up. That will not happen in the GE. It was wise of FF not to waste too much money on the election.

Calleary always seems to be a follower rather than a leader (much like Martin). Cowen, I think, wants to be the kingmaker and he's a fighter. Eamon O'Cuiv would have been an interesting leader of FF and might well have expanded the FF vote. He was removed as deputy leader by Martin. He had campaigned with an SDLP candidate in an election in the North and the neo-Unionist Martin didn't like that. Willy O'Dea wold have been great for soundbites and arguments. There's something inherently creepy about Martin when he is put under pressure during interviews. He keeps doing his ratman clawing actions. The backroom FF people have tried to coach him but he keeps doing it.

McGrath might be a good leader and, apart from the MILFman incident, seems quite good choice. However, with is background, he might be better in Finance. O'Callaghan is smart and would appeal more to the Dublin element of the FF vote (it lost a lot of votes there).

Regards...jmcc

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975523#Comment_118975523

Thank Christ. They are the very worst of all the other parties spun into one. A rump of privileged leftie elitists of the Hilary Clinton mold. Big spending, big taxation, big government, nanny state regulation of the minutia of your lives, gender identity, endless of banning of every pleasure or comfort you may have had in your life- the only blessing really is these useless Ditch hurlers will NEVER EVER govern as evidenced by one of their “leaders” Ms Shortall who couldn’t hack it for five seconds.

SF “might” govern next time as they’re out of excuses. What’ll be more interesting is watching this rump of rats scramble for excuses not to.

FrancieBrady · 28-04-2022 8:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990136#Comment_118990136

What's left of their support, which combined has fallen from the heady heights of 86% to just over 40% at the last GE. Poll trends suggest this is still in decline.

Tell us, what data are you basing the supposition that they 'won't' vote for other parties on?

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989967#Comment_118989967

I’m from a staunch blue shirt family. They won’t be getting a preference anywhere. I’d say the same for the rest of family too. I don’t know who FG supposedly “represent”- but for sure and certain it ain’t Leo’s “early risers”.

As for mr Coveney- there seems to be some chatter in the media that this is a somehow competent or great politician? I don’t know what or who they are looking at?

Dempo1 · 28-04-2022 8:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989986#Comment_118989986

Extraordinary comment, I've long thought this chap completely out of his depth on this particular issue.

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118989043#Comment_118989043

I couldn’t give a hoot about climate “change”. Interesting how it falls politically and who are the fanatics for all things climate “change”- big government, big regulation, big taxation and big control- sounds like a socialists wet dream. I wonder why the left obsess so much over it?

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990232#Comment_118990232

Correction- ALL issues

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 8:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990279#Comment_118990279

It doesn't really matter if you do give a "hoot" or not, the majority do. As pointed out many times on other thread every party now has a Green agenda, so not sure why you are talking about the left been obsessed?

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990294#Comment_118990294

Do they? All I ever hear from real people is complaints about the crippling cost of energy and how the likes of the Green policies are actively making them much much poorer. All stemming from the climate alarmists and their chicken licken narrative of doom. Next election anyhow we will mercifully see a Green wipe out. It can’t come soon enough.

As for the other parties they’ve all bought into this woke green rubbish as they think it’s some kind of vote getter and box tick exercise to look all caring and down with the Grettas with their made in China I phones on Instagram

brokenangel · 28-04-2022 8:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990329#Comment_118990329

"woke green rubbish" really says it all. No thanks leave you to it.

Dempo1 · 28-04-2022 8:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990291#Comment_118990291

I've a particular interest, not quite adoption but connected, one of many issues he and his department are supposed to be dealing with so to speak.

road_high · 28-04-2022 8:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990340#Comment_118990340

Yes it does as that’s exactly what it is.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-04-2022 8:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990098#Comment_118990098

I think Coveney would be a very poor leader. Another Enda. He has to rehearse what he wants to say unless he is repeating Brexit/Backstop every 10 seconds. His competence has been exposed lately. And he has been caught telling porkies recently. Paschal is the only one left with leadership qualities.

jmcc · 28-04-2022 9:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990193#Comment_118990193

Don't be surprised to see the SocDems doing better. They are a classic "nice but dim" vote recipient. The co-leaders are getting close to retirement but there is a younger "issues" group that is very media friendly. To some extent, they are going to be in direct competition with Labour and, to a much lesser extent, with the Greens. It might take some time for them to develop into a "none of the above" kind of party. The problem with estimating the SocDem support is that it is highly geographically concentrated (much like PBP/Socs/Independents) and the sample size used by most polls is not large enough to accurately estimate the support of smaller parties. It might benefit from the cult of Saint Greta voters who may be looking elsewhere after the realpolitik of the Greens.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 28-04-2022 9:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990424#Comment_118990424

To give Kenny his due, he was a craftly little fecker and a much better leader than Varadkar. He was also a good campaigner. Coveney has the ability to appear sincere and ordinary. I'm not sure that Donohoe is quite as media friendly but he has ambition and he is a lot smarter than most of the other FGers. If things go completely pear-shaped for FG then the next leader will need to rebuild the party and that means a lot of local campaigning.

Regards...jmcc