FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275014#Comment_119275014

You'd need a few choice misogynistic words first. Suggesting someone spends more time in the media than at work highlights possible questions over priorities.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274960#Comment_119274960

A continued decline in the RedC polls might change opinions in FG. Bear in mind that Varadkar has lost seats in ever election that FG contested since he was installed as leader. Far from being some great new hope for FG, he's been a disaster. He would have been gone after the 2020 GE only for the Covid pandemic making a mess of politics. The report by Michael Ring into FG's performance in the GE that mentioned that 4 out of every 5 FG seats were in danger may have helped some FGers realise that the party is in trouble both in the polls and potentially at any future election with Varadkar as leader. RedC uses a 40K panel rather than a random sample of the electorate so FG would be foolish to place their hopes on just RedC. The B&A polls tend to favour FF and FF's support is likely to be between the RedC % and that in B&A's. If FF starts to consistently outpoll FG in B&A and rise in the others (RedC and Ireland Thinks) then FG members may be a bit more worried.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275055#Comment_119275055

FG is in a class of its own when it comes to hating each other. I think that there was even a TV series on the history of FG that documented it. O'Connell wasn't a member of Varadkar's clique and voting against Varadkar in the leadership contest effectively destroyed her chances in FG. The problem for FG was that it also lost a relatively safe seat in what is the FG heartland. While there is a competitiveness for nomination in parties, FG seems to have a habit of working against its own best interests.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275185#Comment_119275185

To a pretty well-known ex-FF minister who prospered from the rise in SF support. TBH I think you are reading far too much into the significance polls. A snapshot in the middle of an economic crisis is never going to go well for incumbents. Even so, there is no election on the horizon for the best part of two years so polls just say that people are currently unhappy.

Varadkar will get his stint and most probably lead them into a 2024 election. How that goes is anyone's guess but in their favour is the obvious repeat option of a stable government. A SF return of over 60 seats neither guarantees government nor stability so both traditional parties may well be able to limp into another five years in power, even at lower rates of support.

CarProblem

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275063#Comment_119275063

Also:

SF previously opposed EU treaties => SF bad forever

Varadkar previously opposed adoption rights for gay couples => can someone not change their mind?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275164#Comment_119275164

The report by Michael Ring into FG's performance in the GE that mentioned that 4 out of every 5 FG seats were in danger may have helped some FGers realise that the party is in trouble both in the polls and potentially at any future election with Varadkar as leader.

I wonder what that report is based on. I suspect it may have been put out there to dispel complacency among FG TDs, even those holding what might be perceived as 'safe seats'. Certainly even FG 's poorer opinion poll results don't suggest seat losses on anything like that scale.

This guy is predicting slight seat gains for both FF and FG in the next election, with SF's seat gains coming at the expense of the rest of the left.

https://irishelectionprojections.com/2022/06/28/june-2022-projections-update/

IMO he is underestimating SF's gains but even if FG were to come in a bit down on that in the low 30s under Varadkar, it think that would be a decent showing, given they will have been in power for nearly 15 years at that stage, and economic conditions are likely to remain turbulent between now and then.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275355#Comment_119275355

Apart from the poll toppers, all other seats depend on transfers. Ring's report is something that responsible political parties do as an election post-mortem. These reports would, I think, be based on transfer patterns and votes.

That website is an interesting analysis but it may miss the fratricide effect for FF and FG. This is where FF and FG candidates will be constesting the same seat and the same votes. A single FF/FG candidate might have enough votes to take a seat but because they are splitting the vote, the candidate that is marginally ahead of both may have a better chance of taking a seat. This played out in the 2020 GE but it was party-specific. (2 FG candidates knocking each other out and a Green taking the seat because they were eliminated.) If the fratricide effect played out on a larger scale for FF/FG, then their seat losses would be worse. FF and FG need to work on their candidate strategy and not make a mess of it like they did in 2020.

The opinion polls generally only survey first preferences. That's fine for a simple First Past The Post system but PR:STV means that the transfers play a much larger part in getting TDs elected. One poll also surveyed second preferences a while ago and it found that FF/FG transfers were staying within FF/FG. The electorate is beginning to treat FF and FG as a single party even if they haven't merged yet. That brand dilution has been caused by Varadkar and Martin and it has played a part in the rise of SF as it has a much clearer and less ambiguous brand.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

Jesus this Navan hospital situation is so chaotic. Minister Donnelly seems to be completely ostracised.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275355#Comment_119275355

The outcome of the election may be predictable but that of the subsequent government arithmetic is not. In reality both FG & FF are a known quantity and inclined to be accommodating to some extent to smaller partners. The question here is whether to do as the Greens have done and get 4-5 years of recognisable policies in place and then hope for the best. That approach may just not work for some possible partners and their voters. I actually think they will be OK this time and should most if not all their seats, because of the times we are in.

The irony for SF is that the more seats they get the less likely they are to secure power, as their only real source of support is on the left and which party of the left wants to cede to the competition. In short, they will become the problem in certain quarters. FG will not deal with them, probably ever, and if FF see an option to return to the present set-up they'll be out too. That just leaves the rag-bag of Independents and no sane party builds a government on that basis.

Suckit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275055#Comment_119275055

Is she the weak link on their party ticket though?

I would imagine Leo does a lot worse than her in elections, I think he got in on the 4th or 5th count? She was only a one-term rep due to Leo. As for Petty - Leo much? Are you forgetting his tantrums? Her paranoia seems to have been justified... IIRC many of her constituents were on the radio during the by-election saying that they wanted to vote for her. Leo had convince Eoghan Murphy to run again when all he wanted was out. Couldn't handle the pressure.

Leo didn't even get the overall FG majority vote for the leadership. I would imagine he is a very weak ticket, The elections that they have lost under him show that.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275551#Comment_119275551

Seems to me the current government is and has been a rag bag of convenience since day one.

Your probably correct about the possible make up of next government but I'd be curious how these 11 new TD'S will impact on the next GE results, who will benefit, who won't, redrawing constituencies lines may suit some but certainly not other's.

Fascinating discussion on this last night on the late debate.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275567#Comment_119275567

I'm just talking about in that constituency and she was by far the weaker of the two candidates. She was a one term rep because of Chris Andrews and the rise of the SF vote. FG were still in around 28%-29% share for both elections but Andrews went from under 10% to 16% in 2020. Varadkar does what he needs to do in a competitive constituency. Do people genuinely do the top of party vote? Mostly I see local preferences at work.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275612#Comment_119275612

It seemed, according to some reports, that she was the victim of Varadkar's clique. It wasn't the rise of SF that cost her the seat. It was FG's infighting. Varakdar was only elected on the fifth count in his own constituency and he was the outgoing taoiseach. An SFer topped the poll there. Varadkar has been absolutely toxic for FG.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275655#Comment_119275655

FG got nearly 28% share in 2020. Murphy got 16.03% of that. Andrews on his own got 16.07% so it's pretty obvious it was nothing else. As for the toxic thing well that's a price any party would pay to stay in power for up to 8 years. There are many ways to power and he is aided by the public who will not be specific enough on what it is they want. Bear in mind, the PDs, with never more than 10 seats, were in 4 governments.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275655#Comment_119275655

This old chestnut of topping the poll stuff and getting elected on the fifth count rubbish. FG ran two candidates in Dublin West, with a really stretched target of two seats. They fell well short, but if Varadkar had run on his own, he would have been elected on the first count.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275551#Comment_119275551

 if FF see an option to return to the present set-up they'll be out too.

I'm not so sure about that. If FF essentially face a choice between putting SF and FG into power there'll be a big onus on them to go with the former. By that stage FG will have been in power for nearly 15 years and will be looking very jaded. Whereas SF will have a massive bandwagon behind them on likely 70ish seats. If FF cut another deal with FG in those circumstances it'll look like the establishment parties ganging up to frustrate the wishes of the people...

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274276#Comment_119274276

Ah, ok. Its the way I post them..... right! Even though you dismissed them all out of hand.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275751#Comment_119275751

If the people made choices other than AB(FFG) one would respect it but they don't and then they get annoyed when parties have to sort out the business of forming a government they say they didn't want. SF really can't win 70 seats plus off 36% and they will be back down by election time. I think FF will favour the status quo over giving up their Republican party claim to SF.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274960#Comment_119274960

On that, Isn't this the same John O'Driscoll who was tasked with overseeing the investigation into Leo by the AGS unit, National Bureau Criminal Investigation?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/top-officer-john-odriscoll-whose-mission-to-crush-kinahans-turned-garda-into-a-force-to-be-reckoned-with-retiring-after-40-years-41788170.html

Edit yeah it is

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/detectives-probing-leo-varadkar-contract-23501525.amp

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275014#Comment_119275014

If I commented on some particular aspects of her being female, you may have a point. For example, there was a big pile on Helen McEntee when she announced her pregnancy, people commenting on her hair, her ability to do her job as a mother and being missing from her post because of her having a baby.

THAT is misogynistic.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274463#Comment_119274463

90 x 3.5 = 315k

Help to buy gives one an extra 30k to play with.

Add in a 10% deposit, that is a house worth about 380k

There are loads of NEW houses for sale in Cork for much less than that.

Figures seem off at first glance.

Also, a couple on 90k is middle-income people. So quite achievable. Not easy, and it is expensive but it's achievable

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275796#Comment_119275796

I can't see them getting 70 seats but if they got late 50s, I can't imagine FG and FF combination are much more than that. They're 72 now isn't it and they likely drop seats from that based on their performance and people's anger, and Greens drop too.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274463#Comment_119274463

Its the only area housing can be somewhat linked for a section of the city to the opposition for less than five years, about 7 years ago.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275796#Comment_119275796

SF really can't win 70 seats plus off 36%

Can't they? FG won 76 seats in 2011 on the back of 36% of FPV. People keep saying SF have peaked in the polls but they keep rising...

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275228#Comment_119275228

Their fortunes have been on steady decline. I wouldn't put too much weight in the current crisis.

varadkar is just not good at his job. There's no escaping that. The only reason FG keep him is the poorer options.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275806#Comment_119275806

Look over there.

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275826#Comment_119275826

Alls good so, housing marking is grand. 90k and you shouldn't struggle too much to grab a house in Cork.

Thanks for clarifying

Dempo1

Tut Tut (Again)

https://www.thejournal.ie/michael-darcy-speech-on-investment-bill-5217305-Sep2020/

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276222#Comment_119276222

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/19-the-mews-lee-road-city-centre-sth-cork/4445046

Here is a two-bed property in Cork city centre, available for €150k, attainable for a single person on less than the average wage.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276590#Comment_119276590

Wonder why there's no pictures of the interior?

Might be in a bit of a state.

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276590#Comment_119276590

Did you not read my post, i agree no housing issues apart from Dublin

Cluedo Monopoly

The ongoing Health Service Disaster

10,000 hospital patients without a bed in June - INMO (rte.ie)

'Out-of-control' overcrowding saw 10,000 patients without a bed in June - INMO

Almost 10,000 patients went without a bed in Irish hospitals last month, according to the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation.

It said around 9,961 patients were waiting for a bed in the worst June on record since it began collating figures in 2006.

Today's Trolley Watch figures show 424 patients were waiting for beds this morning. Of those, 362 people were waiting in emergency departments, while 62 were in other wards.

INMO General Secretary Phil Ní Sheaghdha said: "It has been a June like we have never seen in Irish hospitals with out-of-control hospital overcrowding coupled with rising Covid hospitalisations.

"In 16 years of counting trolleys, we've never seen June figures higher than the preceding January.

"Nurses are constantly raising the dangers associated with overcrowding in their workplaces, however the figures for the month of June are out of control and a stark warning of what is to come for the autumn and winter period, considering none of the mitigation measures necessary are being implemented.

"This level of overcrowding warrants senior HSE and government attention, it is not OK and it is not safe."

It also wants to convene the Emergency Department Taskforce "as a matter of urgency to ensure there is independent oversight in relation to the implementation of recommendations."

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276645#Comment_119276645

Like Darragh O Brien who has now declared he has no responsibility over housing issues, Stephen Donnelly might try the same approach here

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275988#Comment_119275988

36% in the middle of summer 2022 is no indication of anything at an election in 2024 or 2025. FG got a huge seat bonus because people completely dropped FF as transfer choices, something SF really can't guarantee and their strategy will almost be FPTP. The risk there is picking too many candidates in the wrong places. It's of no use for SF to have 36%+ in a place like Louth where they will easily get candidates in but it does need to be managed where they can bring someone new in and maybe help a potential ally get in as well. It's not the seats they get, it's their ability to do deals for government and there are few that will. As I said the larger SF become the less attractive they are as a government partner to other parties.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275992#Comment_119275992

The reason they keep him is because there is no actual need to replace him. Parties don't do this on a whim and generally prefer an ordered approach. They are halfway into a third successive term in government and may even get a fourth one. The election of 2024/2025 IMO will decide his fate either way, whether he steps away or is replaced after it although if in government he might want to get to 10 years first!

is_that_so

Possible trouble ahead in Paradise?

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/0701/1307973-ireland-politics-update/

It will be fun when they explain to the public how this needs to be paid for!

Compo82

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276750#Comment_119276750

Seems Fianna Fail have gone back to their populists roots. They were about increasing social welfare by €15 and now no increase in the pension age. They've probably forgotten that they bankrupted the county before by making populists decisions. Also, who's going to pay for this, probably the squeezed middle again.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276590#Comment_119276590

Back of a pad calculations, just rough and approximate....

Average yearly salary is €44,202 PA

Assuming Maximum borrowing @3.5 gross salary = €154, 707 can be borrowed but deposit requires (10%)

Okish so far

Minimum Deposit (10 %) €15,000

Assuming 2% mortgage rate, payment roughly €578.00 pm but realistically ongoing expense would be €638.00 (Figures approx)

Gross Monthly Salary €3683.00 (not sure what net would be)

Net Mortgage cost. €638.00

So yes at a basic level this would be manageable but this assumes the property will actually sell for €150k (it won't)

Obviously buyer might have a bigger deposit.

This assumes absolutely no improvements required (Unlikely)

And of course doesn't factor in property Tax, Insurance etc.

But of course it also assumes the buyer is actually getting the Average industrial wage, which of course you know full well, many don't.

So at a basic level and I'm not sure why your obsessing about a handful of reasonably priced houses in locations that will suit less than more potential home buyers, this property, May be affordable but it may not and location a big factor.

Looking a base price of a cheap house is really pointless unless all the variables considered and the fact remains, wether you'll accept it or not the availability of affordable homes or indeed any homes is extremely limited.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276673#Comment_119276673

As I said the larger SF become the less attractive they are as a government partner to other parties.

That's your read but I don't buy it. IMO if the chance was there for SF to form a government without the involvement of FG or FF there would be a massive onus on all sections of the left to row in. Think about: if you're the Labour party with three seats and an uncertain future, would you not jump at the offer of a ministerial position and the chance to serve in a 'true left' government?

On the other hand if SF fall short of those numbers the pressure would come on FF to facilitate them. As I said above, would FF really want to put a jaded FG back in power when SF are after reciving a massive 'mandate for change'...

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276776#Comment_119276776

They can't put up the welfare as they already gave 3bn away before the budget.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276844#Comment_119276844

My take is that the left won't easily buy into SF hijacking all of their agendas. Most of these parties don't like each other and SF would have to soften their stance on things. That immediately causes problems for them. Additionally Indos are notoriously unpredictable in their demands, unless they happen to have FF/FG genes.

For a party like Labour there may be other options. I also think there is more hope of success in my newly-formed under 7s winning a league than such an arrangement making it even 12 months.

My main and genuine concern is the actual quality of government ministers. SF could muster maybe 4-5 decent quality ministers but the rest of the left would be lucky to get a handful between them. Then there are the potential policies...

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276707#Comment_119276707

While being in government seems likely in this term, hes a disaster as a politician. They could have Harris there and he'd serve as a place keeper, which is all varadkar is. They would be wrong to dump him now but I've a feeling MM will dissolve the partnership once his go is over.

CarProblem

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276750#Comment_119276750

More political cowardice. The pension age needs to increase and the level of benefits paid to pensioners needs to reduce - everyone knows this, just none of em have the balls to do so. the current situation is beyond unsustainable at this stage

Cluedo Monopoly

Sean Fleming getting agitated on Drivetime. I imagine some government TDs and Ministers cannot wait for the summer holidays.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276614#Comment_119276614

It's not the only one available at that price.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276750#Comment_119276750

Don't know about that, the opposition have had the same policy for years without saying how they will pay for it.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119277130#Comment_119277130

I wager that's a bit of a commute to Dublin. Is cork not well outside the commuter belt.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119277139#Comment_119277139

You can get a two-bed apartment in the centre of Navan for less.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119277145#Comment_119277145

You think in the middle of the housing crisis that would not have been snapped up. Or would their be a reason no one has.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119276590#Comment_119276590

Why are you going to such lengths to try and prove that there's no housing crisis? Honestly. It's bananas.