FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330073#Comment_119330073

Any data on this or is just a feeling in your waters?

If the only people interested were as you say Michael put on some show for them scurrying around buying votes and whipping people into line.

The tactical effects of this vote and the shennanigans will play out for a while yet.

jmcc

An interesting, if unexpected, side-effect of this MNOC is that it has solidified the idea of FF and FG being a single party. Bacik/Labour was being quoted in the usual outlets as saying that there was a need for a government of the Left. The funny thing is how some its supporters in the media still consider it a mainstream party rather than a fringe party with only seven seats. The interesting thing was how the Indo had some rather anti-Green stories (it is an extremely pro-FG publication) and how FF/FG forced a climbdown on the turf issue and some the other Green agenda. The Greens are between a rock and a hard place in terms of withdrawing from government. If they did, it might force an election in which they would lose most of their seats. FF/FG's fear of a GE is quite obvious in the way that the FFG propaganda line about "nobody wants a GE" is being spun. Nobody believes it.

SF consolidated its position as the main opposition party to such an extent that the Big Three dynamic of Irish politics is forming into an FF/FG versus SF one. Despite some Independents voting for the government, there are signs of discontent within FF and the Greens seem to be having problems keeping track of their TDs voting. The next step for SF and the rest of the opposition will probably be the targeting of various ministers for MNOCs.

Regards...jmcc

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330598#Comment_119330598

I didn't notice if Alan Kelly turned up 🤔 he's been sulking since being drop Kicked, haven't seen him in the Dail for weeks 🤔

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329352#Comment_119329352

If those are facts, you have links.

If those are made up bullsh!t, then you won't.

Simple as.

markodaly

So defeat in the MoNC is actually a victory now?

Hilarious!

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330643#Comment_119330643

Seems to have dropped off the radar. He was a better leader than Bacik but made some poor decisions. Not sure if he will run again in the next GE. Not sure if his seat will be taken by an SF, or FF/FG candidate.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330653#Comment_119330653

You're way too rigid to understand the nuances of all this. Don't take my word for it - Read jmcc's for crucial insights.

I felt it went really well. Good debate and perfect result.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330652#Comment_119330652

 Links to the words of the TD above.

TD asked for assurances before he would vote for the government, TD got assurances and voted for the government.

McSharry claimed he had achieved a deal for his constituents, Taoiseach refused to say he was lying.

Now we wait to see what other deals were done.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330665#Comment_119330665

I've a very close friend, just retired has lived outside Nenagh all his life, big extended family etc, has not once met Alan Kelly, few locally seem to have, General consensus is Kelly won't run again and his seat likely going independent or SF, obviously just an opinion from some people I know but a lot of dissatisfaction with FFGG, not sure what if any presence the Greens have in Tipp.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330674#Comment_119330674

A return to auction politics is the sign of a government that is in trouble. It is not so long ago that FG had to form a minority government with Independents and the collaboration of Martin and FF.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330653#Comment_119330653

Some spinning going on 🤣🤣🤣

Some of the old chestnuts fired out as well. Oh this means FF and FG are one party, only problem is Green Party are also in government so would they now also be one party?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330672#Comment_119330672

You call that an 'insight'?

Nah!

At the end of the day the MoNC was a failure. SF 0-4 on these afaik.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330665#Comment_119330665

Lowry will nominate a running mate and take a 2nd seat. Both will vote with FFG for favours 😂

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330235#Comment_119330235

I didn’t see anyone been dismissed in my post

Just pointing out it was another failure for the opposition.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330753#Comment_119330753

Guess who said this when they tabled a motion of no confidence?

'The Xxxxxx Xxxx party has been left with no option but to table this motion. While it may not succeed in its obvious intent,....etc etc'

A MONC has many purposes, and has effects on subsequent events, to live in denial of that is your own perogative. The success or failure of this one is far too early to call.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330712#Comment_119330712

Exactly jmcc, a return to auction politics is what it is and that will have serious ramifications on getting a budget through.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330797#Comment_119330797

That's when the real challenge starts, it's going to be chaotic

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330653#Comment_119330653

The outcome was unlikely to be a defeat for the government and even then it had to buy votes. The objective was to consolidate the idea, for the electorate, that FF/FG is a single party. It dominated the news cycle even with a Tory leadership contest and a war in Ukraine.

It might be a bit before your time but SF has always used a "Long War" strategy. The more that SF can present FFG as a single disfunctional party, the more that FF, FG and the Greens will argue with each other. FFers, real FFers rather than the FG wannabes around Martin, held a meeting while Martin was off sightseeing in Ukraine. They were not pleased with him and were, according to some reports, talking about getting rid of him. These FFers were also upset at Martin's continual grovelling to FG and letting FG stomp all over them despite FF being the larger party.

The Greens had some of their agenda vetoed with Ryan's turf issue being squashed. (Did he want to ban turf from being sold on the Internet?) Putting restrictions on farming was never going to go down well and as has been seen in the Netherlands. If FFG tries the same stuff here, it will go very wrong for FFG as SF will gain more votes in rural areas. Now wouldn't that be hilarious?

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330797#Comment_119330797

It is also going to cause more disquiet in FFG because it effectively values the vote of an Independent more than the vote of an FFG TD in the same constituency and could be a deciding factor in the reelection of some Independents at the expense of the FFG candidates. Ring's analysis of the 2020 GE said that 4 out of 5 FG seats could be in danger. For FFG, this is creating long term pain for short term gain.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330852#Comment_119330852

They are being snookered and their supporters can't see it or won't admit to it. I was not sure if they would make the full term or not before yesterday, now I can't see a way for them to make it.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330757#Comment_119330757

Lowry may retire but I think that there may a replacement ready. He's done well from FG and apparently has a very good local organisation.

Regards...jmcc

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330653#Comment_119330653

ah tis part of the game, it was clearly an attempt to push us closer to a ge, it ll eventually happen of course, and sf may cause that, eventually, maybe....

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330914#Comment_119330914

The not so secret "secret" FF meeting was one of the first signs of instability. The funny part was that Jack Chambers turned up to check audio/video cables. No cabinet members of FF were apparently invited. Jim O'Callaghan looks like the obvious choice for a leadership challenge (even though FF did badly in the DBS bye-election) and there will probably be a lot of discussions going on during the Dail break.

The Greens won't like having their policies shot down. The budget is going to have to buy off a lot of TDs who are worried about their own reelection and even then there is the problem of the FF Ard Fheis in September where Martin's leadership might be a major topic. FG and its supporters seems to have convinced themselves that everything is fine and that FF will vote for Varadkar in December.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331006#Comment_119331006

This the secret meeting that the people attending put out information on social media for the whole World to see 🤦‍♂️

I would suggest you have a look at the meaning of the word secret, seems like we have another “filibuster” moment

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330758#Comment_119330758

Ok so you weren't dismissing these members of the electorate, who (according to polls) are the same numerically to that of FF FG combined, when you wrote this?

It was a total failure and the only people taking interest in the vote was people who vote SF and always would vote SF.

That's how it reads.

If you weren't trying to dismiss them, maybe you would like to elaborate on what exactly that means

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331111#Comment_119331111

Are you just making things up to downplay the significance of this meeting for the future of Martin as FF leader?

I think it as the Irish Mail On Sunday that ran with the story first. Don't think that the people attending it mentioned it on Social Media. Had they done so, some of Martin's supporters might have attended. The part about Jack Chambers coming around to just check the A/V cables was quite funny.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331151#Comment_119331151

No I wasn’t and it’s not how it read

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330674#Comment_119330674

The idea that FF or FG might have done snakey back room deals is hardly new. Maybe he got earmarked for an envoy job for if he loses his seat.

Dobbo nailing the government on its inaction on the disposal of baby organs. They've a long history of allowing the abuse of living and dead infants. The mass baby grave in Tuam still there. Is it a class thing I wonder?

Is there another supposed 1st world western country that would leave a mass baby dump site lay and not even look for others?

shirrup

Double post?

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331176#Comment_119331176

Well I suppose the lack of elaborating speaks for itself here. Maybe in your head a line such as "the only people taking interest" in something isn't a dismissal (because those people "only" equal the same numbers of a combined FFG)

with your refusal to clarify though, alas we'll never know.

In the mean time, I'm going to stand by my initial thoughts on it. I guess you just posted that without thinking the stupidity of what it meant through.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331006#Comment_119331006

Jim O'Callaghan is this year's John McGuinness or Marc MacSharry. No cabinet experience, grandiose notions of themselves and a likely car crash of a leader.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330665#Comment_119330665

Looking at the figures from the last election, if Kelly doesn't run, his seat will likely be taken by FG.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331161#Comment_119331161

If you want to make up imaginary “secret” meeting then expect that people might correct you on it

As I said you should check out the meeting of the word secret, someone posting about the meeting on social media means it ain’t secret

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331270#Comment_119331270

No one should ever use the results of one election to make assumptions on the results of the next one especially given FG are likely to be toxic everywhere they run in 2025.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331281#Comment_119331281

FFS, the meeting was arranged in secret. I.E. it was secret from a certain set within FF. That it was leaked after that act is immaterial. Cabinet meetings are supposed to be secret too, but details are leaked.

Give it up please!

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331287#Comment_119331287

They had a vote share of 13%, which is more than enough for a seat. There is no other option unless the currently aged 71 year old Seamus Healy fancies another bite in three years.

FrancieBrady

Leo embarrassing himself and FG again.

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1547188897716871170

Like MONC's, it isn't a problem when they want to do it.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-20131990.html

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331331#Comment_119331331

Go and look what happened in 2011 to FF and compare to 2007 and get back to me. Some of ya on here can't be so young that you don't even remember as far back as 11 years ago.

Jarhead_Tendler

I despise what ff have done over the years. Our county has one TD and he is from ff. He works darn hard for Longford and he and his family receive stick daily on fb from people who have an opinion on everything. If they happened to go into his office and see the work he does they'd be shocked. It's a thankless job in ways although he does get well paid. I wouldn't do it for any money. Damned if he tries to do something good damned if he doesn't.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331381#Comment_119331381

We're really not in 2007 territory at all. I thought we weren't supposed to be looking back at other elections? The most recent vote share is a valid analysis as it shows how much of a quota might be available and they would have enough of one to get one elected. Unless you know of a complete collapse in the FG vote in Tipperary you're really guessing or perhaps wishing.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331440#Comment_119331440

It's not a valid analysis. People change their vote all the time enough to make the most recent general election results irrelevant. An extra 350,000 voters will come active between the ages of 18-23 and most are going to vote SF. Around 150,000 voters will have died and most of them would vote FF/FG. Many older people, like myself, will vote SF for the first time as they've had enough of foreign vulture funds, landlords and private corporations/MNCs running Ireland.

At the next election SF will be on 40% at least in the polls. As things stand they are on 34-37%. These are the percentages Bertie was getting in 1997 when FF won 77 seats and came close to a majority.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331287#Comment_119331287

FG was actually doing quite well in the opinion polls before Christmas 2019. Then Charlie Flanagan went off on his run to have the Black and Tans/RIC commemorated. If you look at the opinion polls from December 2019 to the end of January 2020, FG's support looks like it has fallen off a cliff. When Martin's decided that FF should also commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC, its support similarly collapsed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

Health and Housing were the main topics in the GE. These are also likely to be major issues in the next GE. FF and FG will end up tearing each other apart if they don't have a joint candidate strategy and electoral pact. The other thing about the next GE is that neither Martin or Varadkar may be leading their parties. Varadkar is toxic after the Leo The Leak thing. Martin sacrificed FF for his ambition to be leath-taoiseach. There's still time for FF to reinvent itself before the next GE but it may involve pulling out of government on a matter of principle. That's why the budget is going to be a major problem for FFG.

Extrapolating GE results is not a good move. The opinion polls, even though they are just snapshots of public opinion at a specific time, may be somewhat more reliable but the complexity of the Irish single transferrable vote system means that small changes in support can have massive consequences. The swing against FG in 2002 was 5.4% but that resulted in FG losing 42.49% of its seats (lost 23 seats and won 31). In 2020, the swing against FG was 4.7% and it lost 12 seats. That was 25.53% of its seats. FG just can't afford another Varadkar "victory" unless it wants to end up like Labour.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331486#Comment_119331486

It is as it can show historical trends. I wouldn't get carried away with the new 350,000 voters. They only count if people vote and I'd be pleased to see them do so. The trend has been downward and it would be nice to see it reversed.

Tipperary North before they merged in 2016 was a FG stronghold and Lowry hoovered up a lot of that vote but it still supports them. It hasn't changed just because your voting intentions have and there is a likely seat there even at 12%-13% in FPs. You are just guessing here and 77 seats is over double what they have so where exactly are they going to pick up those seats?

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331521#Comment_119331521

FG won't get rid of Varadkar and that's good news as he's poison to most voters. They're thick as bricks in that party anyway . . . forks in their hands as it rains soup. I mean commemorating the Black n Tans . . . who murdered and raped our ancestors says it all about how stupid FG are.

I've always felt that FF would move on Martin as soon as his time as Taoiseach came to a close (and that appears to be the case now). Martin wants 2.5 more years on the gravy train though and despite being leader since 2011 he won't go without a fight. Of course the main reason for this move on Martin is personal gain and the fact that his poll ratings are shockingly bad (probably because he effectively joined FG in 2016).

Whilst indeed the commemoration of the Black n Tans was a turning point it was undoubtedly the housing issue which changed, and continues to change, absolutely everything and this was a factor which found its feet out of nowhere during the last general election campaign to the point that SF could have won more seats had they run more candidates. What was remarkable is that this issue just came out of nowhere and derailed FF, FG and they've never been able to recover since .... and won't either.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330792#Comment_119330792

You are right, a MoNC has many purposes, one of them is to waste time, and the other is to show up ineffective opposiiton.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330852#Comment_119330852

The objective was to consolidate the idea, for the electorate, that FF/FG is a single party.

Nonsense. You forgot about the Greens, I wonder why?

It's a Coalition between three parties. The next government will also be a coalition.

SF can talk about the long war all they want, but then again why did they run too few candidates in the last GE? Why did they do so poorly in the last local and European elections? Long war my arse!

Stick around long enough and they may get lucky, that is their long war. And of course if/when they do get in what then? There ain't no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow, and like Labour, before they will over promise and be found utterly wanting if given the hot seat. They may do well in the next outing, but their fall after will be worse than the 2011 FF collapse! It's going to be glorious!

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331302#Comment_119331302

Yea, so secret Government Whip Jack Chambers was in attendance. FFS. Secret my arse!

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331255#Comment_119331255

So continue with the calibre of cabinet we are use to.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331574#Comment_119331574

The RIC/TAN commemoration showed how detached and happily so, the core of FG are. Thankfully we have some FG'ers who have a degree of cop on. It was just one incident in a list of gaffes that let's the Irish now there are some in power who pine for the good old days.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331583#Comment_119331583

I heard the key intent was making the indies show their colours. Its good to get a sense of who you are voting for.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331558#Comment_119331558

We will see.

FF/FG's plan is to talk about the IRA for the entire campaign in the next election. It won't work. Expect the unexpected at the next general election.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331583#Comment_119331583

Mark, the motion was first proposed by the opposition, it was then taken by government and turned into a longer process,(time wasting?) while they bought support.

As I said, they were snookered and the jury is out on whether they hit the ball trying to get out of it.

Somebody was asked about the effect of the French Revolution in the 1980's....'still too early to say' was the answer.

Same goes here, despite your predictable gloating.