FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

Dempo1

Paschal regretting those Tesco comments by all accounts but this from Twiiter, perhaps so marketing possibilities.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119376521#Comment_119376521

Its game on now. A lot of explaining to do and when you're explaining you are losing. I know what the public will think no matter what excuses are made. Caught rotten.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377202#Comment_119377202

Based on the thread on boards the majority seem to be thinking “who cares”

The predictions on here about what the public thinks seem to be very presumptions and from what I can see incorrect

As I said before, taking the opinion of a load of fake accounts on Twitter is not a good view of the public 👍

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377126#Comment_119377126

This AIB thing is really destroying the credibility of FFG. RedC regional breakdowns might be interesting even though the Margin of Error is much higher on those.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377233#Comment_119377233

Would the people be polled by RedC on Friday or Saturday? The timing of the AIB revelation are key.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377249#Comment_119377249

Not exactly sure. Some of the random sample polls can take a few days but they tend to be the face to face ones. The online polling ones (RedC/Ireland Thinks) may be done over a day or so. I think that there was a mention from Ireland Thinks on Twitter about a poll being done over a day. With the relatively small sample sizes (1K) and a good online polling platform, crunching that data would not be difficult. With RedC, the demographics and regional breakdowns work is already done because it is using a panel of 40K voters.

What would make this hypothetical RedC poll interesting is that it would have captured the effects of the AIB/FFG screwup on FF/FG support. Remember the Irish Times/Ipsos showed government support down 7% since the last IT/Ipsos poll. With the anger over the AIB thing and the noise that FFers are making, it could be hitting FF a lot worse than FG. Doherty was leading the charge on this during the week and it would not be unthinkable to see SF's support % being larger than than the combined FFG %. It was 36% to a combined 33% for FF/FG in the June RedC.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377233#Comment_119377233

The prediction on this thread of the down fall or loss of credibility of the government are frequent, at this stage if you believed this thread the government has no credibility anyway

But I sure within the next few days we will have another prediction of the loss of credibility of the government

Meanwhile in the real world the actual thread here discussing this doesn’t seem to have any of this sort and gloom

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377335#Comment_119377335

SF has, according to the opinion polls, more support than FF and FG combined. In some polls it is at the same approximate level of support as the FFG government due to the Margin of Error. The support for government parties has been declining since 2020. If a RedC poll showed SF support as having overtaken that of FFG you would, if you even knew what it was, try calling it a rogue poll.

I've put you on ignore because you don't contribute anything useful or enlightening to the thread.

*plonk*

Regards...jmcc

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377233#Comment_119377233

FF essentially destroyed the economy, with the Troika needing to be called in to rescue us from ourselves, country lost its sovereignty etc etc.

At the time, the FF govt were being accused of being in the pockets of bankers, and more interested in the well-being of the banks, than the citizens of Ireland.

FG , who are traditionally opposition party, rode into town with all kinds of promises about the banks (Leo made a fairly infamous statement if anyone recalls it) were voted in, promising an end to cronyism, corruption and nepotism (that went well)

11 years later, FFG now basically the one party, and this story is now making waves.

A banking scandal, with FF back in govt, Greens with them, and FG in the background pulling various strokes. They're rotten to the core, all 3 party's.

These imbeciles seem dead set on handing the main opposition an overall majority the way things are going.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377370#Comment_119377370

So what if a poll says SF have overtaken FFG? a poll is not an election.

Plus the motion SF tried to pull before the holidays was a disaster and just proved how incompetent they are. Also gave the chance for the government parties to call them out for the "flip flopping" they have been doing for 2 years.

As I always say, the only poll that counts is an election and that ain't till 2025

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377415#Comment_119377415

A good gauge of the public is the thread on here which is a discussion about the removal of cash. It is not "making waves". The discussion is about should we get rid of cash or not, not about the government. That is what the population are talking about. I will say again, fake account on twitter is not a view of the public

The spin on this thread is hilarious when every little thing that happens in Ireland is spun as the biggest disaster ever and then second later, the next thing is the biggest disaster ever

IT was like the poor men from Syria in the hotel, that lasted as the biggest disaster ever for about 20 mins, then move on. Horrible carry on really.

It might be an idea, just an idea, to stop over reacting to every single news story because when a real big news story does arrive everyone will ignore. If you haven't worked it out yet, that's what is happening in Ireland. A lot of people are sick of the same faux outrage over everything....its all just noise now.

I doubt you will listen but said I would mention

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377370#Comment_119377370

FF FG vote share has fallen from the heady heights of 86% to what it is now and looks like it is going to fall further.

They seem determined to carry on as they are which only means one thing.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377415#Comment_119377415

It is no surprise that the crony coalition thought that AIB would get away with it. It was only when their own seats and political careers were in danger that they made it seem like they were taking action. That stroke with political party lotteries and fundraising showed that the FF stereotype is not dead yet. SF would need to be closing on the mid 40s in terms of opinion poll support for a majority government. With the opinion polls, it is very difficult to estimate constituency level support as these are national polls. FF's best option would be to walk from government now before the real cost of living problems kick in in the Autumn with the increased fuel prices.

There seems to be a real FF and wannabe FGer (Martin and his gang) split developing in FF. The real FFers need something major on which to break with FG. Getting the budget passed could be a major opportunity for the real FF element and a major problem for the FG/wannabe FG/Greens. The other aspect is that the Green fanaticism over culling the national herd is going to lead to a reduction in FF/FG seats unless some way of sidelining the Greens can be found before the cabinet meeting next week.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377603#Comment_119377603

The problem was that FF and FG both changed. FF was completely wired in to Irish society at a constituency level due to its cumann system. When Ahern and Cowen decided to move candidate selection to FFHQ, it destroyed a lot of that. But the worst self-inflicted wound was breaking the dual mandate thing with councillors also allowed to be TDs. The councils were the spawning ground for TDs. After that, the wannabe TDs and hasbeen TDs were confined to the Seanad. FG also had a problem with paper membership.

Labour could always be relied upon to sell out its voters in order to get into government. FF and FG understood this. Labour did it one time too many in 2011. A lot of the large employers of the 1970s and 1980s also disappeared so the old union support became less and less. Labour eventually became a YATSE party (Yet Another Teacher Seeking Election). It didn't have the diversity of professions that other parties had. It also depended on transfers from FF or FG to get its candidates elected. Without those transfers, its candidates didn't get elected. SF has moved in on the Left of centre votes that had been abandoned by Labour and now it is moving on the centrist votes that were once a mix of soft and hard FF votes. FF has shifted to the Right. It is now competing with FG and Labour for the Right of centre vote. Labour may claim to be progressive and woke but look at how it gleefully imposed Austerity and attempted to impose the Water Tax. Ironically, had Labour stayed out of government in 2011, it might have been as well supported as SF is now. But the Stickeis pension tourists were too interested in ministerial salaries and pensions.

The only thing that could save FF and FG now is if they merge. As a single party, they could gather enough support to be a viable party. That would create a sort of Left/Right axis in Irish politics. The problem is that there would be a lot of political careers ended in FF and FG. The biggest difference between the time FF/FG were on 86% and now is that FF/FG has lost control of the media and the Web and Social Media makes it far more difficult to control the narrative even with meatbots and shills. Most people no longer buy a daily newspaper but FF/FG seem to think that they do. It is why they largely ignored the rise of the Web and Social Media until it was too late.

Regards...jmcc

Beasty

A number of posts deleted

Please stick to the topic

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377711#Comment_119377711

FG, FF or Labour aren't close to be right wing. They're all pro immigration, pro welfare and woke. They're pro capitalism which is about the only right wing thing that FG and FF have got going.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377762#Comment_119377762

I would have thought FG are not pro Welfare at all , you can almost see Leo , Getting Queasy at even mentioning SW 🤔

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377762#Comment_119377762

Look at Labour's pro-immigration stance in economic terms. It creates a supply of people for low-paying jobs and ensures that there is more competition for these jobs. It also allows Labour to virtue signal. One of the mainstays of Left political thought has been the negative effect of immigration on competition for jobs and resources. FF/FG's wokeness is merely looking votes. They'll support anything that will get them elected.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377711#Comment_119377711

Great post jmcc. I do love a trip down memory lane. Gilmore led Labour very badly after the 2011 GE. He did get his own EU job though.

I hope that FF and FG merge but I doubt it will happen now. Leo ensured the division.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377762#Comment_119377762

Pro Welfare? If you say the government is pro welfare what do you call the opposition

Woke? Maybe explain?

Pro immigration? Why are you against immigration?

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377786#Comment_119377786

I mean under their governance, welfare has expanded massively here. They might claim theyre the party for the people who get up in the morning but their actions say otherwise.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377849#Comment_119377849

Every party that the Stickies infiltrated collapsed at the polls. These people weren't Labour. The problem was that Labour was filled with people who didn't realise that politics was changing and thought that the 2.5 party model would continue. (It is also why the SocDems should not even consider a merger or electoral pact with Labour.) FG might have to consider getting rid of Varadkar as he has lost seats for FG. The real resistance to an FF/FG merger will come from the backbenchers who may lose their seats in a single party.

Regards...jmcc

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377859#Comment_119377859

Id say the opposition are also pro welfare and we don't have a right wing party. We've got parties that are left of centre and far left.

Woke - likes of Varadkar, McEntee, Harris etc are very woke tbf. I've nothing against abortion, gay marriage etc but that's generally associated with right wing parties. FG are mainly in favour of socially liberal policies so just another example of them not being right wing.

For immigration, we don't have enough resources to go around the existing population so adding more people is just stupid. Open immigration is just a bad idea for this country. It should be skilled immigration only and not more Deliveroo drivers or people coming for welfare.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377864#Comment_119377864

A, I see 😉

Cluedo Monopoly

It was Robert Troy (FF) on Newstalk earlier blaming officials.

AIB cashless debacle raises 'concerns' over senior officials - Troy | Newstalk

A Minister of State says the first he heard about AIB going cashless at 70 branches was on the news.

Fianna Fáil TD Robert Troy was speaking amid reports that Government was told about the plan four days before it was announced.

He told Down to Business he was not privy to any such advance information.

"I certainly didn't know about it - the first I heard about it was when it was reported on the news.

"But it does raise concerns that senior officials knew about it and didn't think it was their place to inform their management, which is their ministers.

"That gives rise to, I suppose, a concern of how senior public service [sic] maybe carries out their duty if they don't feel that it is important to relay key information such as AIB - who we are the major shareholder in - taking a decision to... go cashless in 70 branches."

He says the situation was handled "appallingly bad and it showed no regard for their customers in terms of the lack of engagement or consultation".

------------------

Those words may well come back to haunt him next week.

Where oh where oh where is Paschal...? ☺️

Dempo1

Just away from #aibgate, briefly.

interesting analysis re affordability for the average price of a 3 bed semi in Dublin, I actually believe the Price for such a property in Dublin is way higher but nonetheless interesting.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/explainer-who-can-actually-afford-the-average-286k-three-bedroom-semi-d-41862219.html

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377884#Comment_119377884

The cost of living has increased in ireland, the minimum wage has increase and that is what happens in every developed country. You can’t decide then to just leave the unemployed to starve to death.

If you don’t want to increase social welfare then decrease the minimum wage.

unemployment is very low.

Look at the opposition would would prefer to ruin the MNC in ireland and end up with huge unemployment

I would prefer to look at the unemployment cheats and also the children allowance which is used as some as wages and not for their children.

Woke: “alert to injustice in society, especially racism”

So not sure you have the right word for what you describe as an issue. You are also talking about FG, one of 3 parties.

In regards immigration the Ukraine people coming in is an emergency. In regards to deliveroo drivers, if the jobs are not available then they won’t get hired. Fact is most Irish won’t work in these jobs anymore and prefer to sit on the dole. So saying you won’t have immigration for jobs like that will ground the country to a halt.

The immigration for welfare does happen, but we have a far bigger issue with Irish than foreign people. Yes we do have skilled workers coming in, but like my company they are targeted overseas and brought to ireland. But then the same can be said of low skilled workers like Keeling do, do you want to stop that and shut down keelings? Because after all the uproar the last time they still can’t get Irish to work for them…..

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377901#Comment_119377901

Yet houses in Dublin are selling and we have a shortage , with recent reports showing the majority are going to people and not companies etc

As I have said the biggest issue is supply. Maybe if parties would stop blocking houses in the Dublin area that might reduce the price as supply increases…..so are you onto your local TD and party you support to make sure they are not blocking houses?

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377970#Comment_119377970

https://www.independent.ie/news/taoiseach-should-be-embarrassed-that-department-of-education-is-objecting-to-housing-say-social-democrats-41691238.html

Id start by getting Govt departments to stop objecting if we are going to end all objections

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377762#Comment_119377762

Well when you look at their housing policies, tax payer funded rent is how the REITs make off of their investments. The 25 year leases and the public living in rentals they couldn't afford without state aid. That makes welfare and state subsidies necessary to keep the investment funds in the money, so FG/FF supporting welfare, the cash cow, makes sense. They are as right wing as is allowed in Ireland. Too right IMO. We need a government who puts the tax payer first and doesn't milk them.

They recently voted against sanctions on the monies of Putin and his oligarch lackies. Private enrichment and the public can go do something to themselves, thats pretty right.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377982#Comment_119377982

Is that the best you could find?

So what’s the plan not educate the kids? 🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378045#Comment_119378045

So some objections to housing are ok. SF and the opposition are objecting to housing for good reasons aswell.

Thanks for clarifying objections are OK though

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377991#Comment_119377991

They're not right wing at all. They're left of center and populist.

A right wing party in this country would be against our open border policies, against expanding our welfare and current spending, and against pro tax cuts. That's not FG at all.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378054#Comment_119378054

Not sure why anyone would complain when the department of education is blocking because they can't give children education.

You do understand the department of education is not a political party??

From reading the article, it seems most parties agreed with the decisions

Maybe you can explain why the government, or anyone, should disregards the advice of a Department?

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378080#Comment_119378080

Oh i agree objections to housing is fine once the objection has merits. Just glad you agree the opposition objection to certain housing is ok

We can move on now from you saying contact the opposition any time housing is mentioned

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378054#Comment_119378054

Here is a list: https://thisinterestsme.com/irish-politicians-objections/

All parties involved.

So as I said contact your local TD/Party and ask them to stop blocking houses. Plenty of example of houses blocked for no good reasons

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378112#Comment_119378112

No I won't move on. It is valid to ask opposition supporters to contact their TD/party the same as I am contacting mine.

Just because you don't like it pointed out to you that the opposition would prefer to make the housing crisis worse is not really a concern for me.

jmcc

No sign of a RedC poll on the Business Post front page. It does have a story about Martin possibly facing a heave.

https://twitter.com/businessposthq/status/1550933784287232004/photo/1

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378078#Comment_119378078

They put private business above the wellbeing of the public and welfare is there so their friends have tenants. They created a sweet deal quango when we were beginning our generational debt.

Irelandsnumberone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378266#Comment_119378266

The Greens will be delighted the farmers win this round too

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378266#Comment_119378266

I don't mind Michael Martin personally, I think at the back of it all he's a decent human being etc. But he's tarnished the FF brand probably for good.

It's almost a cliche at this stage to say it, but he was so desperate to not be the only FF leader who wasn't Taoiseach that he sold the farm completely when he got into bed with the FG party, throwing away their "republicanism" in the process.

The Black and Tan commemoration reminded everyone in Ireland who/what FG truly are, and FF will now be guilty by association.

That's one of many stains that they'll struggle to remove.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378293#Comment_119378293

The Greens may be sacrificed on the alter of political climate change. FF/FG don't care if Green TDs are reelected. They may not want to make enemies of rural voters for the sake of some business class flying pontificators.

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378117#Comment_119378117

You are the one with the problem. You are the one using bad policy housing as a 'get out' for near a decade of government crony deals. I'd only be contacting opposition to thank them for blocking not fit for purpose bad deals.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378125#Comment_119378125

They are slowing the government making it worse.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378307#Comment_119378307

FF should never have made that Confidence and Supply deal with FG. Martin seems to have a small group of FFer around him who are probably very comfortable working with FG. The problem for Martin is that the FF backbenchers realise that they are in FF rather than FG. A real FF leader would have used Charlie Flanagan's Black and Tans/RIC commemoration issue to grind FG into the dirt at the last GE. The problem for FF was and is that it is being led by a wannabe FGer. Martin basically created the conditions for SF beat FG into third place and come within a seat of FF in the GE. If it wasn't for Covid, Martin and Varadkar would have been dumped by their parties.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378356#Comment_119378356

I think it's a case of FG and FF knowing they need each other to cling to power tbh. They'll put up with anything to do that.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378376#Comment_119378376

Never underestimate a politician's greed for a ministerial salary and pension? FF would probably have gone into government with SF is SF had not won so many seats. The popular vote and SF's gain in seats scared both FF and FG. They didn't even have Labour to make up the numbers this time and were forced to do a deal with the Greens. The problem for FF and FG is that some of the Greens are fanatics and are willing to destroy Ireland's agriculture industry. The electorate is beginning to think of FF and FG as a single party. That's one of the most damaging things for FF/FG as it will have FF and FG competing for the same vote at the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378322#Comment_119378322

Im sure you will. It seems some people are more than happy to laugh at people homeless and caught in the housing crisis.

It's a pity that people feel the need to stamp on a person head instead of holding out a hand when they are down.

I will always hold out a hand!!! but that's just me!!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378412#Comment_119378412

I agree on the electorate seeing them as the same and that is the predicament the backbenchers can see clearly.

It will be fascinating to hear them come an election trying to make themselves distinct.

Will we hear 'I will never coalesce with FG' or 'Putting FF in power would be like putting John Delaney back in the FAI'?

Delicious prospect and there'll be plenty of journos and broadcasters wanting to embarrass them into answering. Not to mention fodder for other parties.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378452#Comment_119378452

The younger FFers may well seek to differentiate themselves from FG. The problem is that they may have more in common with SF than with older FFers. There has been a momentum building for SF in the younger demographics and it is outperforming FF and FG. They are the ones who will have to deal with a Reunified Ireland after the Border Poll and a vastly more complex political landscape. Some of the older FFers also realise this. Barry Cowen's comment about getting FF to take ownership of the Border Poll issue was a very smart one. The problem is that Martin is a neo-Unionist/Partitionist and his action in removing O'Cuiv as deputy leader showed that. It would have been interesting to see O'Cuiv leading FF.

The big problem for FF and FG as a single party is that the second and third preference votes will split over FF and FG candidates. That will cause a fratricide effect where FF and FG candidates will knock each other out when may be enough votes for a single FF or FG seat. This happened on a smaller scale in 2020 where FG ran too many canidates and the candidate with slightly more votes than either was elected without reaching the quota because the two FG candidates were eliminated in the same count.

The problem with the media is that there is always an agenda and many of the political correspondents seem to get institutionalised from covering politics for so long. The whole Special Advisor thing also takes some of the better journalists out of the media. There will be quite a few of them unemployed after the next GE. Some journalists may want to make their reputations with a killer soundbite or quote and they are the ones that will worry some of the politicians. The Labour supporters in the media will be churning out puff pieces and trying to reinvent Labour as a party of the Working Classes but there has been a bit of a shift to the SocDems as being the new Left of centre option. Many of the old pro-FF and pro-FG journalists are still in place and SF is not going to get an easy time. You can see it and hear it on RTE where SF representatives are interrupted every few seconds by the presenters and FF/FG/Lab representatives are rarely interrupted.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378412#Comment_119378412

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378452#Comment_119378452

The electorate is beginning to think of FF and FG as a single party. That's one of the most damaging things for FF/FG as it will have FF and FG competing for the same vote at the next GE.

I agree on the electorate seeing them as the same and that is the predicament the backbenchers can see clearly.

It will be fascinating to hear them come an election trying to make themselves distinct.

I've made this point before but if FF go into the election expressing a willingness to do business with SF, and it looks almost certain that they will, then the 'problem' goes away for FG. All they have to say to distinguish themselves from FF is "FF would be prepared to put SF into government and we wouldn't." Their gamble is that alone would win over enough of 'Middle Ireland' to take them to a strong second place. Even if it doesn't, positioning themselves as the anti-SF party will work for them in the long run because there will inevitably be a backlash against SF-led government at some point, and FG will be by far the best placed of the current parties to surf that wave...