FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404314#Comment_119404314

So as an aside from the comment you quoted you want me to tell you why the government are making a balls of everything they do?

I'd look into companies telling the consumer they've no option but to raise rates then reporting higher profits.

Why are we the highest in the EU? Don't all the other members have the same problems? Why are we worse?

I see the housing, LA and heritages minister, with no responsibility for housing is talking about more emergency accommodation due to the rise in homeless families.

Why are they completely useless wasters Mark?

I'd make the construction industry foot the entire bill for the mica problem instead of using the tax payer like a bottomless money bucket.

Besides we pay these chancers to look after these things. I agree with you though, at this stage we should be asking anonymous people on the Internet what we should do.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405010#Comment_119405010

It was extraordinary, I've never liked him, smug , arrogant, belligerent , the type of person you don't send out , unless you want to infuriate people even more 😉

skimpydoo

Just back in from doing a 7.5k walk and on my walk I listened to some Philip Boucher Hayes interviews over the past 2 days on the Claire Byrne Show. I heard three car crash interviews with Matt Carthy, Eamon Ryan and Colm Brophy.

Matt was not giving too much away, and some of his excuses were not great. Eamon did not answer all the questions that he was asked and he bluffed at times. Colm was bullshitting as usual and even claimed there would be no cattle culled.

jmcc

Looks like FFG might have something with which to distract people from this deal. The Sabina Higgins letter to the Irish Times (a rather stupid one about the war in Ukraine) seems to be causing problems and even appeared on the President's website before being deleted. It is not quite "thundering disgrace" territory but it could, if the FFG media people were evil enough, be used to dominate the news cycle. As Higgins was the presidential candidate for FF/FG/Labour, FFG might not do it and, instead, hope that the deal is forgotten about by the Dail resumes and talk about the budget, the back to school costs, and the lack of student accommodation dominate the news cycle.

Regards...jmcc

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404367#Comment_119404367

You mention SF and Matt Carthy but does anyone know their position on this? Anyone?

He was on RTE radio yesterday doing an interview and he was beaten around the place from pillar to post on their lack of a policy. Apparently, they had a policy in 2020 when going for election but all of a sudden that policy has gone missing.

SF will make no gain from this, in fact, it's best they shut the **** up as people will realise they are a one-trick pony. Shout and roar over and over again.

I think when the dust settles, both camps will grumble but know that they had to give up something to get it over the line. This is Ireland and coalitions are the norm, which means compromises are key. Forget about the fools going on about 'Capitulation', they are just singing off a prompt sheet given to them by someone else and they don't have an original idea or solution to save their life.

Regardless, this will be a legally enforceable limit that any future government won't be able to touch lightly.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404453#Comment_119404453

True, there will be the reactionary, right-wing, populist climate change denier nonsense on display from some independents. Maybe a few more will get elected over this, but there wont be enough of them, and they are very unlikely to be part of the next government. Come to think of it these types have plenty of support from the crew here.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404571#Comment_119404571

She actually wasn't. You don't even know the basics which says a lot.

She left SF in 2018 because she is a devout pro-lifer.

She was elected in 2020 as an independent, got the last seat as well. If SF are to do well and run two candidates in that constituency, she will be the one to lose out here. If she actually makes it over the line, it will be at the expense of the 2nd SF candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laois%E2%80%93Offaly_%28D%C3%A1il_constituency%29#2020_general_election

On SF, they wont be getting votes for this because they are not on the side of farmers, indeed they are not on any side because they have run away from the debate like scared little children.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405538#Comment_119405538

Pretty much the hymn sheet of Colm Brophy there.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404739#Comment_119404739

Told ya. SF, the king of fudges on a topic so important.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404784#Comment_119404784

This is actually where they are very very VERY weak. They have no policy, but will shout and roar about the government doing the wrong thing, yet don't have a solution themselves, but will shout and roar anyway.

When the next election comes around, this is where they will be targeted, and it could sink their credibility over being a main member of government because at the moment they are missing.

Every other party has a position on this issue, yet the main opposition party who wants to be the main player in the next government goes missing, runs away like a little child and has no policy on arguably the biggest issue facing the world? Pathetic to be honest. Irish people are not stupid and deserve better.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405538#Comment_119405538

Apparently SF didn't have the data on which to make a decision. Very convenient. It kept the problem as an FFG problem and now FFG is facing a net zero target in rural areas. It won't affect the Greens much. They are spinning this as a win and don't have many rural TDs. However, for FF/FG, 25% might be the percentage of FF/FG TDs that could lose their seats over this deal.

RTE, being the state broadcaster, obviously wanted to rope SF into things. SF was too smart to get involved. The damage to support may affect FF/FG and that's what irks you, isn't it? The fear that SF could begin to take rural farming/agriculture votes that were once solidy FF/FG. Absolutely terrifying for you and those like you! And then there's the internal FF/FG problems from rural FF/FG TDs who now face the potential loss of their seats. This wasn't a win for FF/FG. It was a win for the Greens. The Greens outplayed FF/FG. Has your chap John Paul Phelan/FG resigned the whip yet? How many more FF/FG TDs will be tempted to resign the whip to improve their reelection chances?

I think that this football commentary from 1981 sums it up for FF/FG. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs

Regards...jmcc

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404825#Comment_119404825

It might be news to you Francie, but SF has signed up to a 51% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

They support this and voted for it.

Let me repeat this for effect.

They SUPPORT it and VOTED for it...

They cant turn around and go down the climate change denier route and wax lyrical about Brazil or other such nonsense.

So, its 2022 and we have 8 years to reduce our carbon emissions by 51% but then. SF support this, yet wont tell us how we get there....

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405011#Comment_119405011

You should talk to your mates here, as they are saying its a capitulation for the Greens.

Also, as mentioned SF have signed up to net zero by 2050 and 51% reduction by 2030. That is why they have gone missing the last few days.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405629#Comment_119405629

The thread is about the policy makers who have missed every target they have set. Do you think they will make the 2030 target Mark?

What damage to people will they have to do to get there?

Thoughts please.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405617#Comment_119405617

The opposition seen it was an essentially political game with no real intent to reach targets or save the planet and decided to play along with the game.

If any of them believed it was a genuine emergency (I do BTW) there would have been cross party work.

FF FG and indeed the Greens have been revealed to care more about seats than the planet.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405083#Comment_119405083

Why are we the highest in the EU?

Ireland doesnt have the highest inflation in the EU, we actually bang in the middle.

If you want to educate yourself on the matter, read this doc.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644638/2-19072022-AP-EN.pdf/fff35147-c9b3-a915-7bf0-b09202bbd130#:~:text=European%20Union%20annual%20inflation%20was,%25)%20and%20Finland%20(8.1%25).

You will see that inflation in Estonia is the highest with 22%.

Here ill even screenshot the graph if you don't want to bother reading it.

https://imgur.com/a/D5OfqAW

So, my question to you is, why do you get so much of your posts factually wrong? Like for someone giving out about the guberment messing it all up, you should be doing better here.

Dempo1

Just to be clear re the Laois / Offaly constituency, Not only will Carol Nolan retain her seat, she'll increase her vote.

The people in Trouble are Sean Fleming & Charlie Flanagan , Fleming may not even run again.

Cowan has his Die hard Clara set

Brian Stanley has actually done himself alot of damage outside his Portlaoise stronghold and despite his high profile, I know many who worked on his campaigns throughout the two counties, livid that since he got elected, he's basically dropped many of his original support base like bad habits, holds few clinics and ironically helped Carol Nolan secure a seat as an independent last time.

Charlie Flanagan may just do the sensible thing and retire, really has disappeared off the local political scene and honestly very little chance of re election.

I believe there'll be two independents next time

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405646#Comment_119405646

That isn't true about missing every target Francie. Another lie is probably told to you by someone else, who tells you want to think.

However, you skipped over the point about SF voting for the 51% reduction and the Net Zero reduction by 2050. Not even you can squirm away from that.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405581#Comment_119405581

Gas. I was thinking similar.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405691#Comment_119405691

I am not at liberty to discuss SF on this thread. There has been many moderation posts on the issue.

You skipped the questions there Mark.

Do you think they will make the 2030 target Mark?

What damage to people will they have to do to get there?

Thoughts please.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405739#Comment_119405739

Then dont bring them up if you are not willing to front up.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405629#Comment_119405629

The chair of the Climate Advisory committee is asking why FFGG announced sector targets that only add up to 43%. Did FFG forget about the legal limit for emission reduction?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405759#Comment_119405759

Front up?

Any chance you'd front up and stop turning sideways like the renowned Brophy?

Do you think they will make the 2030 target Mark?

What damage to people will they have to do to get there?

Thoughts please.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405641#Comment_119405641

The Greens were never going to get 30%. It is basic political deal making. Open high and get the other side to settle at a much higher level than they originally wished (22%). The Greens gutted FF/FG. As the clip above said, your boys took a Hell of a beating. A hell of a beating. :) The Greens are now going around spinning this as a success and FF/FG are trying to reassure rural voters that the national herd won't be culled. The FF/FG national herd is not so safe.

Regards...jmcc

c.p.w.g.w

Genuine question...

If FF were to enter coalition with SF is there a risk that's there core voters move to FG and FF fall to Labour numbers with regards TD's

skimpydoo

Philip Boucher Hayes said today the figures don't add up and we have not seen much in the way of detail yet on how it will be implemented. @markodaly Do you think they will make the 2030 target? Yes or no will suffice.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405822#Comment_119405822

FF seems to have a pro-FG element (Martin and his clique) and a more FF element that sees SF replacing it as broadly centrist party with widespread support. The gulf between these FFers and SF is not that wide. Labour was obliterated because it betrayed its voters and lost its core support. FF still has much of its core support and should have easily won more seats in the last GE. Because it was led by the pro-FG Martin, it lost seats. Take him out of the equation and install a real FF leader and things change dramatically. One potential outcome is a fracture in FF and FG with some of the conservative element forming a new party. The problem for FF/FG is that the voters already consider FF and FG to be a single party in terms of votes. (A few opinion polls have asked about second preferences.) FF is still the largest party at Local Government level. If FF had won near 55 seats in the last GE, it would have gone into coalition with SF rather than FG but Martin and his pro-FG attitude banjaxed FF. Don't underestimate FF or its support.

Regards...jmcc

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405861#Comment_119405861

Can I answer, Please, Please 😉😁

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405873#Comment_119405873

Agree here, I said after 2008 here that FF would inevitably be back as a force in Irish politics and I was laughed at and derided by the usual few. No doubt about it in my mind Martin would have coalesced with SF had he had enough seats to be Taoiseach first and top dog.

The FG support here love his genuflection to FG, but again, in my view that is masking the real FF. The FF still damaged by 2008 and all that, who are republicans at their core.

FG need to beware if they find their feet again and IMO they are, they could find themselves locked out of power for a long time.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406003#Comment_119406003

One thing that has become apparent since about 2012: FG is led by idiots. It had the chance to obliterate FF as the main party in Ireland politics but lacked the killer instinct. Even Brian Hayes was claiming in the Sindo around then that FG needed FF to stop SF. That hasn't turned out well.

FF has a ruthless streak that FG does not possess. FGers are more likely to fight amongst themselves than with other parties. Even after 2008, FF managed to remain the largest party at Local Government level. As soon as the opportunity arises (and FF support increases with FG support collapsing), FF will walk. That's become slightly more likely now because FF will work on blaming FG for the 25% deal to protect its rural vote. If it pulls it off, FG is in very deep trouble and could easily end up in the mid 20s after the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406099#Comment_119406099

In respect of this Martin is playing a blinder. Coming out streets ahead of Varadkar. Knows when to keep his head down and his mouth shut.

He has surprised me as leader in fairness.

But the internal issues in FF will be his downfall. And his performance will not matter to the electorate all that much.

c.p.w.g.w

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405873#Comment_119405873

My point was, any FF supporter I know hates SF with a passion...it's those people that they could lose if they entered into government with SF, do those people make up alot of their support is more my question I suppose

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406153#Comment_119406153

He's a much better politician than Varadkar. He'd have to be to survive in FF. The real FFers are going to tear him apart over the 25% deal because a lot of FF support is rural. Even when FF was almost wiped out in Dublin, its rural support was relatively solid.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406174#Comment_119406174

Some of them would have been hardcore FF and possibly long-term supporters. What has happened is that the Housing crisis has impacted on a lot of these older supporters and they see their children being unable to rent or buy houses.

In real terms, the hardcore support for a party does not matter because it is the floating vote that decides the outcome of GEs. In 2011, much of the floating vote that had voted FF shifted. Some of it moved to Labour and some to FG. The Labour vote in 2011 was not a Labour vote. In 2016, some of that vote shifted back to FF and it surprised the usual talking-head political correspondents in the media. For people who knew how to analyse polls, it was no suprise at all. Neither was the rise of SF.

This is because the 2011 electorate is different to the 2016 electrorate and the 2016 electrorate is different to the 2020 electorate. The electorate slowly changes as more people reach voting age. Past GEs can be indicators as to what may happen as can opinion polls. But it is the changing demographics that have contributed to the rise of SF and the decline of FF and FG. FF have become used to coalitions and while supporters may grumble, they will vote for their local FF TDs. They will be locally focused more than nationally focused. Being very cynical, FF in power is far more important to these supporters than their dislike of SF. A party that is out of power for too long loses political influence. FF needs to be in power to be relevant. It finds it very difficult to be in opposition.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406174#Comment_119406174

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405822#Comment_119405822

Yes I believe this will happen and will in fact be under way at the next election, as FG make damn sure every voter is well aware of FF's willingness to do business with SF. I think it'll be more the 'middle Ireland' element that has historically floated between FF and FG than the FF core vote that will be lost initially anyway.

I actually think if there has to be a deal between FF and SF it'll be more likely to be some form of confidence and supply rather than a full coalition to enable FF to put some distance between the two.

But the real reckoning will come at the following election. There will be more people who actively dislike SF after they have spent a term in government and they will presumably be voting en masse for FG. But will FF be picking up any compensatory votes? People who are happy with the government will be giving their no. 1 to SF and possibly transferring to the smaller left parties. Most SF supporters despise FF and would only settle for a deal with them on a needs must basis. So the question of 'What is the point of FF' would be very much in the air...

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405780#Comment_119405780

As I said, you should tell your mates who think this deal is a capitulation from the Greens.

Odd how the same people come with it at different angles.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405861#Comment_119405861

Yes, I do.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405941#Comment_119405941

Please do

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406003#Comment_119406003

FG have been in power 11 years and will be in power for the guts of 14 years. They are going grand Francie, no worries about them.

Next government could very well be FF/SF which gives FG a clear run at both of them. Can easily see FG back in big numbers after.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406349#Comment_119406349

Your misrepresentations don't work. I stated that this was a win for the Greens and would be spun as a win. It was basic political negotiation and the Greens are quite good at it. Once they started talking about walking, FF/FG surrendered. You obviously don't like the that.

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405669#Comment_119405669

Ireland's inflation number is higher than the record figure of 8.9% across the Eurozone.

This is from RTE. Why do you try twist things and suggest they are made up when they don't suit your agenda?

You skipped reposting to this, you skipped responding to the homeless rise...

Why did you bother quoting my factually inconvenient comment at all?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406392#Comment_119406392

That quote from RTE agrees with me.

RTE are talking about the Eurozone average, where Ireland sits in the middle.

Yet, there are countries that have inflation a lot higher than that.

Poor effort BB tbh. Wont fool ol' Marko.

dePeatrick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400854#Comment_119400854

Hang on now, the EU does import Brazilian beef, about 3billion in 2019 of course we get some of it here and as we stop producing beef we will be getting more of it.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406401#Comment_119406401

I know. I even quoted it from RTE. Ignore and then spin when pressed. It's boring.

Marko didn't even address the content of the post he quoted. Not even an effort.

Ireland's inflation number is higher than the record figure of 8.9% across the Eurozone.

The number of homeless people increased in June to 10,492 – a rise of 667 compared to March this year - according to the latest figures from the Department of Housing.

The number of homeless families also rose to 1,385 in June - an increase of 147 compared to the end of the first quarter of the year.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406357#Comment_119406357

They are going grand

Except for breaking records in the numbers of homeless children and homeless families and people left lying on hospital trolleys. Missed emission targets and random cronyism and lessons learned. I guess it's just about being in rather than serving the public.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406357#Comment_119406357

They had 36% support in 2011. Down to below 20% now.

Dempo1

Is there any Polls this weekend 🤔

Dempo1

Lovely picture of that pesky back bencher Brian Cowan this morning, extraordinary he's commenting on ER's lack of ambition on wind energy after a week of hot air 😁

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1553277966003703811

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405822#Comment_119405822

There's a risk to SF. FF are way too toxic. There's a lot of people who will vote for SF and will be disgusted at FF being in coalition with them. Similar to those that voted FG and got FF in 2020.

Either way, SF are too politically astute to play that hand before an election, so FF voters wouldn't know.

Either way, given who FF's core vote are, and seeing as they're still glued to their hip at this point, they'll still vote for them even after going into government with FG.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406613#Comment_119406613

That moaner creeps me out to be honest.

Former Agriculture Minister - yeah he lasted around 2 weeks!

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407143#Comment_119407143

Can't abide him either and he's one of my local TDs, not that a single person in my locality has heard a whisper out from him in years.