FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512246#Comment_119512246

Oh I know where it came from. As I said made up. 😎

Housing99

Its just disgusting that while me and my generation are unable to have an independent bog standard basic life because of housing that a junior minister, scandal and incompetence aside, owns 11 properties that he has been getting rents of 1500 a month for a 1 bed on. It is literally against his personal interests to support fixing housing

It would be like having a minister who owns a chain of funeral homes and expecting them to end a famine or plague

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512443#Comment_119512443

Remember next time you tell us about what trending on politics, 213 👍

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512466#Comment_119512466

Still waiting on you to back up those numbers...

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512466#Comment_119512466

I've never meant or said trending in politics, I referred to Ireland Trending to which Leo and other politicians occasionally appear so again back and check my posts and check again who's trending in Ireland (Gosh a politician) Well I never 😳 BA

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512453#Comment_119512453

As posted on the thread you created about the topic, and on the other thread when you brought this up. Yes you can buy an apartment in Dublin if you want, not just me but loads of other people gave you advice at the time on the thread.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512495#Comment_119512495

I made it all clear in post. Not sure why you want me to repeat it multiple times. 👍️

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512516#Comment_119512516

You have multiple times on this thread mentioned about different things "trending" on twitter as if that makes them really important. I just reviewed what is behind the numbers. So as I said 213 actual people

Housing99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512594#Comment_119512594

If I was able to save 30,000 I could go in at the lowest bid on an apartment in the outer parts of county Dublin.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512621#Comment_119512621

Tut Tut BA why are you back tracking on previous posts again, why not deal with your bizzare post about Leo Trolling, which I've responded to reasonably, your deflecting yet again.

Why mine or others general comments about what's trending offends you I don't know, it's a common enough term.

Anyway if you want to avoid your Faux Pas re Leo, I understand, it's fine, honestly 🙂

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512627#Comment_119512627

The numbers you shared on the thread at the time meant you had enough saved and you could buy the apartment in Dublin. Anyway it way off topic.

I would suggest create a thread in the https://www.boards.ie/categories/banking-insurance-pensions section and get some advice because everything you shared before you would be able to buy an apartment in Dublin now

FrancieBrady

When is the Dáil back?

Brucie Bonus

I think its brilliant how even when the dail is closed Leo puts his foot in it. Top man. He really is a blessing.

Troy on talking about all his properties and the nothing to see here from MM and LV is not a good look. The idea that FG will win seats based on FF not ruling out a coalition with SF, shows how out of touch FG are.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512711#Comment_119512711

Mid Sept I believe.

Which means the Troy story will get constantly rebooted.

The short term optics for FFG are woeful. The perception will be long lasting.

FF broke housing market.

FG made it worse.

FFG members and cuckoo funds making a killing off the broken system at citizen expense.

Every single effort to deflect and defend is so damaging.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512761#Comment_119512761

I am flabberghasted FG came out so quick in his defence. What were they thinking?

That 'top class' comment is going to be some soundbite.

Anyone able to rationalise it in a coalition context...what was the thinking? It was fairly obvious from the get go this was a minefield of toxic optics, as you say.

And what of the Greens - silent as far as I know.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512694#Comment_119512694

The school transport issue is another government own goal. They should be giving preference to people who paid in years gone by.

Housing99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512794#Comment_119512794

They don't see housing as a real issue, FG in particular. They view landlords, like their TDs as successful and they see renters as being unproductive. They are giving responses based on their own personal views. The "welfare class, underclass" narrative has now extended to anyone who doesnt own a home. Soon it will be anyone who doesnt work in IT or Finance

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512823#Comment_119512823

Not sure how you are coming up with this stuff, far fetched to say the least

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512902#Comment_119512902

I would say it's closer than 80% correct. 🤪

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512902#Comment_119512902

Over a decade of a record breaking crisis. They are either complete incompetents or encouraging it for their profit.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512928#Comment_119512928

You will be told filling out forms is hard. Then being experts and fixing housing issues.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512938#Comment_119512938

I'd imagine it has stopped any growth in the polls stone dead. Micheál had been doing so well and now it is straight back to classic FF in on fell swoop.

Beasty

You can discuss Troy in the context of the potential impact on the Government here. All other discussion of what he did, why, how he has reacted etc. belongs in the dedicated thread

Beasty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512621#Comment_119512621

Both "sides" just drop it and move on

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512998#Comment_119512998

Any links?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512965#Comment_119512965

I think that a RedC poll in September 2020 had FF as low as 10%. That was a highly abnormal time due to Covid. However, if FF goes below 14% in a RedC poll, I think that the backbenchers will remove Martin. The Troy fiasco might be the trigger that causes that poll collapse. The other interesting effect will be that on FG due to Varadkar praising Troy. If SF tap into the anger about Housing and Troy then breaking the 40% barrier is possible and that's moving into majority government territory. Of course, the 40% barrier would need to be broken in all polls for it to have any possibility of being accurate due to the pollsters using different polling methods.

Regads...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513035#Comment_119513035

FF are stuck with Martin and there is certainly no appetite for a move unless you're talking about the cantankerous oldies whipping it up. These are also mid-cycle snapshot polls with an election not remotely likely for two years. If people were still happy with the government at this point you'd think there was something wrong with them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513035#Comment_119513035

Is it possible that Martin is so disconnected that he just doesn't see how toxic association with this kind of stuff is for FF? Maybe he believes they are not synonmous with the Galway Tent and the property bubble burst?

He did after all seem to think the banks were not bailed out. Is he living in cloud cuckoo land?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513747#Comment_119513747

He became taoiseach and that seems to have been the pinacle of his career. Unless he is given a job in the EU, it is all downhill from there. He sacrificed FF's identity as a party and now the electorate is beginning to think of FF and FG as a single party. There may be some in FF who realise the damage that he and Troy Story have done to FF and it makes a leadership challenge more likely. There's also the LNG terminal issue that may upset the Greens.

Regards...jmcc

BonnieSituation

DELETE

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512794#Comment_119512794

He wasn't thinking, but seeing as he's the junior minister in DETE, he has to defend him. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. MM's silence until the weekend was deafening though.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119512902#Comment_119512902

Do you think the State's handling of housing over the last 2 decades has been commendable?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513776#Comment_119513776

The Greens? Yeh, I remember them. 😁

Very quiet ATM as coalition partners. I would have thought they would have been pursued for comment. Are they quietly seething or quietly hoping it goes away.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513857#Comment_119513857

You are aware it is holidays. Why should the Green party be doing anything apart from a well earned rest?

Maybe log onto twitter the odd day for a laugh 😂

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513909#Comment_119513909

The Dáil is on holidays, the government isn't... I hope.

Are you saying the entire Green party is 'on holidays' because here is their twitter and there seems to be somebody at home there:

https://twitter.com/greenparty_ie

Seemed to be no problem getting a comment from them a few days ago on different matters.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40942715.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/08/14/green-party-opposed-to-30-income-tax-rate-proposal-for-budget/

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513857#Comment_119513857

The focus is on FF and FG. They know that they may not do well in the next GE so getting involved in what is an FF/FG mess would not be wise. Either that or nobody wants to wake up Eamon Ryan. :) There's also that LNG terminal issue. The Greens don't seem to want it built but Ireland's energy security matters.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513984#Comment_119513984

I think it is distinctly odd myself. Every party in the Oireachtas has had something to say on this, but the Greens seem to be silent unless I have missed something.

Cluedo Monopoly

Lets stop fooling ourselves lads. We have seen this all before and FFG have no intention of fixing it.

When RTE Investigates did their Standards in Public Office program in 2015, it showed a litany of corruption etc

RTÉ Investigates - Standards in Public Office (rte.ie)

We all knew about the likes of Hugh McElvaney (FG), Joe Queenan (FF) etc.

There was talk of reform at the time...yada yada. New Politics etc. A new bill was drafted!

RTE Investigates did another 2 programs recently on Councillors gouging on fake expenses. Mainly FF and FG councillors caught.

The local councillors who broke expense rules (rte.ie)

Council chamber secrets: Misconduct, falsehoods & waste (rte.ie)

Council chamber secrets: Misconduct, falsehoods and waste.

"A new era of accountability in local government was promised ten years ago, but has yet to be delivered."

Criminal stuff. Pure and utter fraud. Same outrage and promises to reform....yada yada.

What happened?

In 2015, the prospect of ethics law reform was on the political agenda when a proposed piece of legislation, the Public Sector Standards Bill, was presented to the Dáil.

Under this legislation, a new Office of Public Sector Standards Commissioner was proposed, in addition to various other reforms that had been initially recommended in the Mahon Tribunal.

The commissioner would have the power to initiate investigations, even in the absence of a complaint. (Currently, the Standards in Public Office Commission can only initiate inquiries upon receiving a complaint.) It would also have powers to impose fines.

"For the first time, a uniform framework of ethical regulations will apply at national and local level in Ireland," said Brendan Howlin, the then-Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, in a Dáil debate in January 2016.

"There will now be a consistency of approach to ethical obligations across the public sector and, in a new departure, overarching integrity principles for public officials will be enshrined in legislation."

Of course, all of this sounded promising. But progress on the legislation later ground to a halt.

In August 2017, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe wrote to the Oireachtas Finance Committee to warn that it was "essential that the Committee now quickly moves" to schedule the completion of thecommittee stage of the proposed legislation.

When asked for an update on the legislation in June 2019, an Oireachtas official replied that the Dáil term was due to finish the following month and that "All our remaining meetings are fully accounted for, and there are no plans to deal with this Bill in the remaining time".

The delays continued, and once the 2020 General Election was called, the bill died.

-----------------

The bill died. They dont want reform. FFG like the trough.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514019#Comment_119514019

Perhaps the Greens are even more divided than they first appear. There are some who may be very angry with Troy and FF about this but the pragmatic Greens are in control and they don't want to rock the boat. If the Greens concentrate on Green issues and leave this to FF/FG then it may not have any immediate impact on their support. It is surprsing that none of the journalists following the story have tried to get a quote from the Greens. However, the Greens are in government and may not want to jeopardise that. They won't want a flashback to Eamon Ryan being forced to defend an FFer in the Dail.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514071#Comment_119514071

Your first sentence is bang on the money I would think. Not a clue how to play it.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514124#Comment_119514124

The Greens know that many of their seats are due to SF transfers. It wouldn't make sense for them to become too closely identified with FF/FG. What they are doing, ironically, is closer to FF's old trick of being in government while pretending to be in opposition. The big problem for the Greens in the next GE is the lack of the Greta Thunberg fanaticism that had a lot of gullible voters vote Green thinking that the Irish Greens were as Left wing as the continental Greens. The problem for the Greens would be if one of the Leftist Greens decides to go on a solo run and criticise Troy. The Turf War showed exactly what FF/FG thought of the Greens. The LNG terminal is a major policy issue for the Greens but there is likely to be a backlash that will send the Greens back to the electoral Stone Age in terms of seats due to energy poverty and insecurity. Any squabbling between FF/FG and the Greens over it would also provide a far more effective deflection from Troy Story. This government is far from stable.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514389#Comment_119514389

The FFG government simply cannot afford an election now. It would be carnage. The Troy Story is even more toxic than I thought originally. People are livid. Even during a Dail recess the power swap government is getting absolutely hammered.

Looking forward to September polls.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514784#Comment_119514784

There may be a poll published this weekend. The whole thing is destroying FF's credibility on the Housing issue (not that it really has any) and making people think of it as the property developer party again. It is a perfect storm for FFG. There's Ukranian refugee crisis in the middle of Housing crisis with Irish homelessness figures peaking. Then there's the student accommodation crisis because Ukranian refugees were moved into student accommodation as a temporary measure. And to top it off, Troy Story emerges. The pre-Troy stuff could be plausibly blamed on other factors by FFG's friends in the media but Troy Story is totally self-inflicted. The problem for FFG is that voter anger.

Votes that might have been solidly FF/FG are now in play and may shift to SF or go Independent. FF and FG remember all too well what happened to Labour in 2016 (37 seats to 7). The Water Tax was a factor in that but Housing has the capability to destroy FF and FG in terms of second or third preference votes. This voter anger, if it gains momentum, would make a lot of the projection spreadsheets based on previous voting patterns useless. I predicted what was going to happen with the 2016 GE on another forum and called the spread between the largest of the Big Three parties and the smallest. It did not go down well with some FGers. I even got called a closet FFer for effectively saying that FF would do well in 2016 (FF more than doubled its number of seats in 2016).

The current worst case scenario isn't just a rebalancing of the Big Three party model. It is the possible emergence of a completely new model with one large party with a majority (SF), two smaller parties (FF and FG), some Independents and some micro-parties. It may even force FF and FG to consider merging though a new party that draws from FF, FG and Labour could also be formed. FFG supporters may be very upset with this worst case scenario.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514932#Comment_119514932

Superb post jmcc. You have great insights.

To be fair the FFG power swap had a 100 year run and many of them built up significant empires (some legal) or tasty jobs in private industry and Europe (so did Gilmore from Lab!). That was the priority it seemed. Time for a change of culture.

Brucie Bonus

Ryan on news at one. What a complete sell out waffler.

He blamed the war in Ukraine over potential power shortages in winter and dobbo said this was on the cards long before the war. Then Eamon conceded data centers were an issue but not the two new amazon ones they recently approved. Some green.

He mumbled a bit about Troy. Stuck with the 'nothing to see here' model.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119515026#Comment_119515026

Things are really bad if they had to wake up Eamon Ryan. :)

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Yep things are going pear-shaped.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40946582.html

Big mistake letting Eamon Ryan loose. May be a resignation in the offiing.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

Green leader calls for 'full investigation' into Troy (rte.ie)

Troy should be subject to 'full' Oireachtas investigation - Ryan

Minister of State Robert Troy should be the subject of "a full investigation" by the Oireachtas Committee on Procedures, Privileges and Oversight prior to the resumption of the Dáil, according to Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.

The Minister for the Environment added that this should be done in tandem with an investigation by the Standards in Public Office Commission (SIPO).

-----

Prior to the resumption of the Dail he says. They fear the questions coming. It's the scandal that keeps giving.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119515642#Comment_119515642

About time Eamon.

jmcc

But will Martin have the guts to fire Troy? Ryan stopped short of calling for that. The FF backbenchers must be getting worried at this stage.

Regards...jmcc

Brucie Bonus

Will Martin be commenting on the Siteserv review he's been sitting on for weeks?