FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119543542#Comment_119543542

I don't think that there are any TDs from FF and FG who would bring the government down on the budget because the numbers are tighter. A Green backbencher might, but their issues are more away from the Budget. It would have been much easier to vote against the Budget last year when the government had a bigger majority.

If the government needs independents, that might be different, but a lot of the independents know that SF are targetting their seats in particular.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119543542#Comment_119543542

It might be a bit non-obvious but the idea is sound. This is how genepool independents occur. They take advantage of a general backlash against a party by being seen to take a stand against the party and thus keep enough of their vote to get reelected.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544010#Comment_119544010

Sure, but most gene pool independents have enough of a personal vote to become one. Quit or get kicked out of the party and you are usually sunk, especially as you will be up against party candidates who want you out and the vote is often a party vote.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119543895#Comment_119543895

That risk is not obvious anywhere, even with the malcontent noises from backbenchers at times and I can't think of examples of TDs voting against their own Budget.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544027#Comment_119544027

The "party vote" as a deciding factor is a fallacy. The core party support is much smaller than it appears. A few years ago, the opinion polls used to publish core figures for the parties by including the "Don't Knows" as a separate category. The problem is that over recent decades, the DKs have grown considerably and it is their vote (typically that of floating voters) that decides the outcome of elections. An angry electorate can destroy a party. This is exactly what happened to Labour in 2016 but Labour had been almost completely dependent on transfers and floating votes. When those transfers and floating votes disappeared, so did Labour's TDs. When the DK percentage starts increasing, it is generally an indication that electoral upsets are on the way.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544091#Comment_119544091

An ex-party member has no recourse to the party machine nor the party vote nor potential transfers of their former party and they are banking on a personal vote. Labour's nonsense allowed them to be destroyed and they were on a hiding to nothing by promising far too much.

Nash in Louth is a good example of someone far exceeding the low popularity of his party and his secret is being well-liked. Fitzpatrick as an Independent in Dundalk is the same but few who leave parties can expect the same success.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544132#Comment_119544132

But in this scenario, a backlash against a political party makes a move to being a genepool independent more attractive. The other aspect that has not been mentioned is the effect of candidate selection on the parties if the government falls in September. Existing TDs would have an advantage over parties that had not yet selected candidates and a new party candidate may not have had enough time to develop a profile in the constituency. This is why the decision to become a genepool independent often favours the existing TD who is concerned about saving their seat. It is completely cynical but these are politicians.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544091#Comment_119544091

That makes it even less likely that anyone of them will jump ship, as they will be afraid of getting caught in the carnage.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544228#Comment_119544228

It doesn't. A genepool independent depends on the sympathy vote from the core party vote.

You still haven't outlined a credible path to an early election. You and others have been saying the same thing for nearly two years. If I remember correctly, there were posters predicting within days of it forming that this government wouldn't get its first budget through.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544553#Comment_119544553

I expect the coalition of chaos to go full term and then get obliterated.

And I expect plenty of shenanigans along the way.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544806#Comment_119544806

I agree with the first half of your first sentence. I too expect them to go full term, and I really don't understand the logic of those who respond differently.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544806#Comment_119544806

Currently the government is like a man holding on to a rising balloon and trying to decide when to let go of the rope.

Regards...jmcc

astrofool

I would expect the government to run to term, or close as, depending on when it's strategic to hold the next election.

Scandals like Troy are relatively easy to deal with as they lose their positions and move to the backbench for a while (and it gets dragged out a lot over summer). It also doesn't help that the opposition have their own mini, similar, scandals at the same time, even though usually not to the same degree.

I'm sure there will be a similar "fall" of the government predicted at budget time due to a misconstrued kite.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119545720#Comment_119545720

FFG will be hoping for a post-Budget boost in the opinion polls. There will be a few coming up to the Budget and the impact of Troy Story could affect FF hardest. Strategically, candidate selection is going to be a major issue. The parties will need candidates in place and known in their constituencies. If FFG have to call and early GE then there might be a slight benefit in that SF may not have candidates in place. In the last GE, FG ran too many and SF ran too few. The problem for FFG and its majority is that it may still have to buy some support from the Independents. The cost of energy is going to cause problems and this is going to be a major factor. The EU is already trying to deal with the problem and some of the EU countries are more proactive in this respect. Martin apparently had a two hour meeting on the subject. The IT and Indo were running a story about a €10K electricity bill and this may become more common unless something is done to deal with the rising costs. People are not protesting on the streets yet but September is always a tense month for family finances.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119545759#Comment_119545759

The EU need to address the now very dysfunctional energy market and they seem extremely intent on doing so. The energy price issue is not of any government's making except Putin maybe and you are jumping the gun in advance of the Budget on this. We will see supports made available next month and if that's not enough there will be even more supports as required. It's just money and we have that.

Isn't it time to put these polls down for a bit? They really don't mean anything at this juncture, apart from quotes from allegedly panicked backbenchers but polls within a month or two of an election date will.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546125#Comment_119546125

The EU may have more of an input on stabilising energy prices. Ireland used to have a reasonable electricity pricing system until FF/PDs decided to go with their "competition" insanity. The price increases are already making headlines and this is a far more dangerous trend for the government than the Water Tax thing. This isn't an introduction of a tax but rather increases on essential bills that people have to pay. It affects people across the political spectrum. It has to be dealt with in the Budget.

Opinion polls are snapshots of public opinion at specific points in time. They are useful and both FF and FG may be facing leadership challenges if they are extremely bad. It is the last two weeks of any GE campaign, rather than two months, where the voting intentions become more obvious. Some of the newspapers don't commission polls during August but they tend to resume in September. The first of them might be published on Sunday or the Sunday after depending on the newspaper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election

The Troy Story problem is going to affect support but September always results in increased spending for families (back to school). This September is different due to the increased energy costs and the Budget from a government that has a knife-edge majority.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119545759#Comment_119545759

I don't think that FFG are expecting or hoping for a post-Budget boost in the opinion polls. This winter is going to be tough, the toughest since the 1970s, there won't be a boost for them.

Best they will be hoping for is that a boost comes in late 2024/early 2025 as the infrastructure improvements start to come on stream, and the energy crisis caused by the Russians is left behind.

Cluedo Monopoly

Dara Calleary of Golfgate fame is back! He is taking the ministry of the disgraced Troy.

Dara was one of 4 Ministers for Agriculture that FF have provided in this government since June 2020. Did any of them achieve anything?

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547045#Comment_119547045

Current one seems to be doing a trade mission to Japan and Singapore

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546894#Comment_119546894

I doubt the budget will give a boost, no matter what is introduced in each budget people will complain it is not enough or it doesn't cover the exact area they want.

Seemingly the VAT might be reduced on bikes according to a person I was talking to yesterday, that was the word on the street. So the B2W scheme might become more attractive. The more people cycling in Ireland the better, especially for the environment but also from a health point of view

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547123#Comment_119547123

If that is true, the Greens are continuing to have an impact on government, good to see.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547045#Comment_119547045

Calleary was not a good choice. It looks bad for FF especially when people remember those who died during the Covid pandemic. In cynical terms, they partied while people died. FF had an opportunity to spin this as a clean break from Troy Story but Martin made a mess of it. It will be interesting to see if there is growing support for a leadership challenge in FF.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548184#Comment_119548184

Agreed. Could they not have found a TD with a clean record? The Golfgate trial was a whitewash and I find it fascinating that photos of the party never got out. The partying during Covid story will be revisited during the next election campaign for sure.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547123#Comment_119547123

They should double the amount of money available in the B2W scheme to make it more attractive for e-bikes and cargo bikes, that can act like a second car.

There is huge expectations in this budget but impossible to please everyone.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548255#Comment_119548255

It is just another example of Martin's weakness as a leader. FF needed a break from the past. Instead, Martin chose to continually remind people of it. If there are polls due for Sunday, it will be interesting to see if Troy Story and Calleary have any impact.

Sunday Times/B&A is generally FF friendly due to face to face polling. If FF is down in that poll then it will worry the FF backbenchers. Business Post/RedC uses online polling from a panel and is not FF friendly. Sindo/Ireland thinks is the same. The Irish Times/Ipsos uses face to face.

Not sure when the FF think-in is taking place but if any of these polls show FF sliding, then things will be difficult for Martin and his loyalists if FF backbenchers consider their seats to be at risk.

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548275#Comment_119548275

I used the scheme for the first time recently to buy a very good mountain bike but it's a hugely abused scheme. I have lost count of the number of people who bought lawnmowers and strimmers and other garden stuff using the scheme. I know one person who managed to get a washing machine and dryer using the scheme. Don't ask me how. I'd say very few actually cycle to work but I wouldn't mind that as long they bought a bike.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548382#Comment_119548382

I am looking forward to the next few polls and the return of the Dail.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548453#Comment_119548453

Going to be a fun September for FFG. I think that the September 2020 poll by RedC had FF at 10%. That was during a highly abnormal period due to Covid. If FF even comes close to that (below 14% given a Margin of Error of around 3%), even the most loyal of Martin loyalists will be worried. The nighmare scenario for FF and for FFG in general is SF breaking 40%. Not sure of the downside for FG on Troy Story but it made Varadkar look like an idiot. However, most FG supporters probably realised that a long time ago when he was installed instead of the FG grassroots choice, Coveney. And there's still the Budget. :)

Regards...jmcc

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548652#Comment_119548652

Yep and also the possibility of public sector strikes.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548677#Comment_119548677

Not in September, consultations etc. on pay deal will take up to five weeks. If big unions back it others will roll in behind.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548677#Comment_119548677

Now is the Winter of their discontent? FFG is probably wondering if it can blame it all on Putin and the war in Ukraine. There's still the student accommodation issue which has taken a bit of a backseat to Troy Story.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548275#Comment_119548275

Plenty of ebike under the 1500 clip, I guess the reduction in vat would also bring others down below it. A lot of them hugely overpriced as well like all popular items.

A lot of stock not available is the huge problem.

Cargo bikes I agree, they are excellent and maybe a "family scheme".

The stories of the B2W used to buy other equipment seem to get more extravagant on these each time. I heard of one case confirmed which the shop got caught out and was removed from the system.

Most companies now have a middle shop running everything to stop the dodgy shops etc.

The fact is the huge majority is used to buy bikes, maybe not for cycling to work but to cycle.

It's an excellent scheme and worth the investment. With our weight issue the more we can get to cycle even if just at weekend the better

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548677#Comment_119548677

Unlikely now, the deal is done. If any union rejects it, they will have little public sympathy.

Cluedo Monopoly

Another FF landlord and minister failed to register a property with RTB.

Stephen Donnelly admits failing to register Dublin rental property on time – The Irish Times

Stephen Donnelly admits failing to register Dublin rental property on time

Minister registered property days after it emerged Fianna Fáil TD Robert Troy had failed to do so with a tenancy in Westmeath.

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It's just too easy 😉

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549191#Comment_119549191

Great work by the Irish Times

Let's hope they keep looking into all TD's and make sure this is called out

Cluedo Monopoly

Do not get sick this winter! The state wont be able to help you. My own hospital has topped the trolley list.

Almost 10,000 patients without a hospital bed in August (breakingnews.ie)

Almost 10,000 patients without a hospital bed in August.

More than 9,603 patients were without a bed in the month of August, according to the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation (INMO).

The figure is a new August record for overcrowding in Irish hospitals.

University Hospital Galway was the most overcrowded hospital in August, with 1,166 patients waiting on trolleys.

Phil Ní Sheaghdha, INMO General Secretary said: “For the third time this year, we have seen another monthly overcrowding record broken with 9,603 patients on trolleys throughout the month of August.

“The consistently high levels of overcrowding we have seen this summer are sounding the alarm for a very bleak winter ahead unless immediate action is taken by the Minister for Health and the HSE in the form of a fully funded, winter plan.

“This plan should be published prior to the Emergency Taskforce reconvening on September. It is not good enough to publish a plan for winter when healthcare workers and patients are in the throes of a winter crisis.

It should not take this union and its members consistently shining a spotlight on problems with overcrowding for action to be taken.

---------------

Great nurse to bed ratio though...

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549301#Comment_119549301

Well, that's a new slant, going from the hundreds in daily totals to these huge monthly totals. Gets the headlines I suppose. It's kind of ambitious to imagine that any HSE winter plan will make it go away. It will take time.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549328#Comment_119549328

The daily totals are here if you need them.

ED Trolley Watch/Ward Watch Figures below for 31st August 2016 (inmo.ie)

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549340#Comment_119549340

And there's absolutely nothing wrong with using them all the time. Huge cumulative monthly totals are of no practical use and just make headlines.

I’m all for young people paying a load of more tax so I can retire earlier than I had envisaged. Nice one folks, mighty progressive of you.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549328#Comment_119549328

Tbf the winter is gonna be horrific trolleywise for the health service......between COVID,reduced vaccine levels and an horrendous flu ravaging Oz at the min,will eventually land here too

Decades of under-funding and cutting beds is about to come to a head,and seemingly noone in government is doing anything to prepare for it

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549412#Comment_119549412

Well I doubt anyone in the government is doing anything apart from the flu jab if they want it

The HSE will be the people making the preparations for the winter and as they do it each year they are the experts.

I expect the HSE are monitoring the situation in Australia like they would monitor any disease outbreak across the World.

In terms of underfunding.....

Do you have a magic ball to see what is in next years budget?

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/9c7a3-budget-2022-minister-donnelly-announces-21billion-the-biggest-ever-investment-in-irelands-health-and-social-care-services/

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549412#Comment_119549412

Well, 50 ED consultants are planned to be recruited over coming months. So says Donnelly. Whether we get them remains to be seen. Additionally the public consultants deal should be concluded. At €252K p.a. that will attract people. The increase in ICU beds is ongoing but slow on account of the teams they need to recruit.

I'm not sold on the suggested twin threat of flu' and COVID. I think they are now one and the same and largely target the same demographics.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549459#Comment_119549459

Yes to attract consultants you need to offer them good terms and conditions.

They spend a significant amount of time in college/uni and with a shortage across the World can demand good wages.

Trying to short change doctors and consultants will lead to a disaster for the HSE and people of Ireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549459#Comment_119549459

50 consultants won't be able to stop the mess we're facing this winter

They'd wanna be getting flu vaccine out to everyone asap,push the COVID jab again to all age groups to stall tide,pushing work from home......instead we have a minister of health spending his days registering properties.......the government is asleep at the wheel,and will simply do usual and blame everyone and everything else for their poor standard and potential collapse of the health service this winter and same lemmings will blindy follow em over cliff and accept it,as way things are.....it deosnt have to be this way,we deserve so much better

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549488#Comment_119549488

The flu vaccine is available to anyone who wants it. A lot of people will not take it.

Not sure who you are referring to as "lemmings" ? maybe you could clarify

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549488#Comment_119549488

Flu' vaccine uptake ranges from under 20% to that big 40% pre-COVID vaccines. It'll be in that range, probably similar for COVID shots as well.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549503#Comment_119549503

Most elderly people will take along with medical professionals etc

But the government cannot force everyone to take it in case a flu which is half way across the World might affect Ireland.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549637#Comment_119549637

This flu will affect Ireland....where do you think the data to know what flus to put into the jab each year come from??

It's swept through Irish community in Adelaide and Melbourne last few weeks and alot worse than ordinary flu by all accounts

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549650#Comment_119549650

So you are saying that people in ireland could get the flu over winter?

Is that not the same every winter?

Cluedo Monopoly

The optics FF, the brilliant optics 😊

Donnelly raking in €2,300 a month from rental properties (ontheditch.com)

Stephen Donnelly is set for retirement – on top of his TD and ministerial pension, he’s had tenants pay significantly more than €200,000 towards a Sandyford two-bed he owns.

The long-term tenants at the property are paying the health minister a monthly rent 20 percent above housing assistance payment (HAP) rates in the area.

The Wicklow TD is a landlord twice-over, with another rental in county Offaly. He’s making €2,300 a month from the two properties combined.

Donnelly didn’t register the Sandyford property with the Residential Tenancies Board till his party colleague Robert Troy was forced to resign, as reported earlier by the Irish Times.

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But at least he improved the health system......oh wait

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119552736#Comment_119552736

Does the article state if he owns the property outright or if he has a mortgage?