FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119559753#Comment_119559753

The popularity of the Green party had very little if anything to do with Greta. But it is the easy person to point at finger at by some people because they dont understand the concern a huge amount of people have about the environment. It is easier for some just to brush it away as "Great hysteria" than actually trying to figure out wy the Green vote was increasing. You have provided an excellent example.

Not once in any post have you actually considered that people are concerned about the environment.

In terms of the comment about FF and FG been seen the same, that would suggest you know very little about Irish politics

This is a story been pushed by the opposition parties. That's it. If you knew FF and FG, the history of the parties you would know they have huge differences. Especially at the local level.

Certainly no chance them joining together.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119560009#Comment_119560009

It will always remain a mystery to me, how a bunch of reactionary Thatcherites managed to capture a social liberal vote......enda Kenny overseen an absolute magic of a PR campaign,but had the personality for it perfect too

Even if half the green vote is up for grabs,as being progressive (personally believe it to be higher,the greens 2020 manifesto was v.forward thinking),it would leave 3.5% of first preferences up for grabs.....putting many socdems or pbp into 50/50 seat winning position (assuming they went entirely to them)

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119560009#Comment_119560009

The current energy crisis may actually work to increase support for the Greens. After all, if they had been in power for the last decade, we would be exporting wind, wave and solar energy and not be worrying about gas supplies from Russia.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119560640#Comment_119560640

Maybe because they've brought in every social change, FF gave the 8th! They still have a leftish social democrat wing that has its roots in the Declan Costello mid-sixties The Just Society document. Kenny, like Bertie, was a good in-person campaigner.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561183#Comment_119561183

Brought in,when couldn't be avoided any longer,them referendums should been passed 15 or 20 years ago

(still someone with fatel fetal problems can't be gauranteed a abortion,so you'd have to wonder why they bothered with it)

It's a party backboned by reactionary Thatcherites,who many of em in morning would slash and burn social welfare and any state safety provisions.....they could set the housing crisis on a path to permanently being solved in morning,by putting into motion the path to referendum for right to housing.....but they can't Barely bare to tinker around edges,with refusal to solve underlying issues

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561205#Comment_119561205

they could set the housing crisis on a path to permanently being solved in morning, by putting into motion the path to referendum for right to housing

Apart the undesirability of it, by producing a conflict with the property rights already enshrined in Article 43 of the Constitution, it has potential to screw up the housing market and of course it also pits those who can, will or hope to against those who can't or won't. Legislation can be more effective and more precise and campaigners could have a lot more joy in that area.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561006#Comment_119561006

You would hope that would be the reaction and a lot of people I see have this

Then at the same time you have people talking about turf 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

The future is renewables and generating our own power.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561275#Comment_119561275

This housing crisis is a decade or more going on now,if they haven't sorted it by now,I can't see any reasonable prospect of em ever solving it without an underlying requirement within the constitution to do so

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119561329#Comment_119561329

We will have to wait and see won’t we

Based on teh numbers of houses etc and of course a stop in the war and I expect the numbers will be massively improved

brokenangel

And just like magic FF post

#HousingForAll is one year old and it's making good progress.

Since the middle of 2021, almost 54,000 new homes have been either built (25,000) or commenced (28,450).

The number of homes purchased by Households has gone from a low of just under 25,699 in 2011 to 55,298 in 2021.

Great news as we look to get out of this housing crisis

Now if we could only stop the blocking, we would be a lot closer

blanch152

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0902/1320218-cso-economic-growth-figures/

A lot of people in the country must be doing well if the tax returns are like this.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563989#Comment_119563989

A lot of people are buying and selling houses.

IT companies etc are mad looking for workers etc etc

Also, which has had a huge impact. Brexit, no longer can you buy cheap sh*t from the UK, shop local is really helping local shops etc. Even myself I was always buying stuff from UK, more a force of habit. Not I just shop local all the time.

Plus if you think about cars etc, how many cars imported from UK, people driving over and coming back etc. All shut down.

Yes our selection has decreased but long term it is going to hurt the UK and increase the spend in Ireland.

markodaly

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1561718449931444224

If you scratch the surface and look globally Ireland is doing very well on many of the big issues.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565550#Comment_119565550

OF course we are, but good news doesn't sell.

howiya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565550#Comment_119565550

Why present data up to 2018? What's happened since?

jmcc

Sindo/Ireland Thinks poll. Not great for FFG. Technically, the Greens are in wipeout territory.

SF: 36% (+1)

FG: 21% (-1)

FF: 16% (-1)

PBP-S: 5% (+1)

SD: 4% (nc)

LP: 3% (nc)

AÚ: 3% (nc)

GP: 2% (-2)

I/O: 11% (+2)

September 2022 +/- August 2022

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1566138755630653441

Regards...jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566772#Comment_119566772

If sinn fein bring vote management they have in the north (think might be an election or 2 too early) and run enough candidates,they will come damn close to outright majority

a juggernaut taking north of 35% first preference,could wipe out many smaller parties I think,likes of soc Dems,labour and greens unless strong personal/local votes are in for a bleak election

Stragetically speaking,if they really wanted a left government,they'd want to trimming that back to 28/30 and platforming likes of Paul Murphy etc in local areas

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566820#Comment_119566820

It is only one opinion poll. The best thing would be to see how RedC and B&A polls show the parties. The Sindo/Ireland Thinks uses online polling and that generally is unfavourable to FF. If B&A shows a decline for FF then that's serious. B&A uses face to face polling. On these percentages both FF and FG are going to lose seats. It doesn't matter how many people on Social Media talk up FFG as being slightly ahead of SF because elections are about seats. When it comes down to it, FF, FG and the Greens will be competing with each other as well as SF. The real panic will set in for FFG if SF manages to break the 40% mark.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

I said it 2 years ago and will say it again

The only poll that counts is an election

Carry on now 👍👌

thedart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566868#Comment_119566868

Ever watch Early Doors?

is_that_so

Some noises about what the Budget is likely to do on the energy costs issue. There seems to be a very large war chest planned, which is a good thing.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/budget-2023-focus-on-raft-of-once-off-supports-to-help-households-and-businesses-survive-exploding-costs-crisis-41959765.html

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568092#Comment_119568092

This was all to be expected, the most interesting part will how will the opposition and their supporters spin this as been terrible and wrong for everyone in Ireland

Of course while not coming up with any alternative

I would like to see them put money into HVO to replace oil for home heating.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568220#Comment_119568220

TBF there was very little noise about the €200. As long as there seems to be enough support available and it is generally suitably targeted it should be little more than that "need to do more" favoured by advocacy groups. I think they will focus a lot more on quick and easy one-off cash handouts, and we have oodles of that.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568229#Comment_119568229

I always expected it to be on the cards, the government will say it worked the last time

For me my bill never changed, I am on level pay for 300 per month so it just went into the large account of credit I currently have sitting with supplier but for other I seen it made a huge change. Some people with PV are just paying off standing charges after running free all summer so that was a massive bonus for them

Personally, I would taken both lumps of money and put solar panels onto peoples houses.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566772#Comment_119566772

Incredible numbers for FFG when I think back over the years. Can you recall where FG was polling in 2011? The SF % seems to be solid now. I do think the SDs will be the 4th largest party after GE.Next. Hopefully higher. I wonder will we see a new party emerge over the next few years. I am sure there are members who would like a clean break from the toxic FF/FG/Lab labels.

Thanks jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568321#Comment_119568321

I always assumed,biggest issue facing FG in particular into future is the likely re-emergence of the PDs,would shatter their conservative vote,while they have more or less conceded the progressive vote already,

and if enough disgruntled FG members joined would take votes with em and be largely immune from critism from being in government

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568451#Comment_119568451

New and smaller parties rarely get above tiny niche status and tend to have a very short shelf life. The PDs succeeded because they had a very good roster to start with and the jury is till out on the two leader entity of the SDs.

Also puzzled by the claim that FG is the bastion of conservatism, historically that has been a long-standing FF trait. If anything the original bigger three cover a far wider spectrum of the electorate, in terms of appeal, than the dogma of the left. That's why people have tended to vote for them.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567852#Comment_119567852

Don't think that I did.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568321#Comment_119568321

Google/Wikipedia is your friend on this. Interesting that Labour were on 35% at one point in that election cycle before ending up at 20%. FG BTW only had 21% in the last GE so still in that ballpark.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Irish_general_election

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568521#Comment_119568521

The PDs fundamentally failed because they were inherently linked to the crash.....I don't particularly like their policies,but their re-emergence would imo,damage FG the most....as there is a market for a reasonably right-wing party,free from being tainted with last decade or so of rule here

most/all present FG leadership could have slotted straight into the historical PD leadership and vice versa

Most my life,I've seen FG and it's online supporters lead the charge of demonizing single mothers,launch hotlines to tackle welfare fraud,they have spent their entire existence of my life,attacking poorest members of society,slandering and abusing all and sundry who oppose em as lazy,

even to this day,you'll get some mouth-breather supporter along to proclaim anyone qs em as a trump supporter,all the while hand-waving away the links between yfg and American conservatism(not that I mind it-an international context is always good,so long as gaurded/realistic in its application to Eire)

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568567#Comment_119568567

The PDs fundamentally failed because they were inherently linked to the crash.....I don't particularly like their policies,but their re-emergence would imo,damage FG the most....as there is a market for a reasonably right-wing party,free from being tainted with last decade or so of rule here

They failed because FF , as it always does, took all their clothes, they still got 25 years of life or so. Initially they appealed because they were not FF but as FF "evolved! they eventually served no further purpose.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568614#Comment_119568614

They always struck me as a party for FF people who refused to vote FG,despite agreeing with FG....great point as regards FF evolving into em,and hence why there's only cigarette paperskin between emselves and FG today.....

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568451#Comment_119568451

How is this 'likely'? Do you think Mary Harney will be announcing her triumphant return to politics ahead of her 80th birthday next year? AFAICS there is little or no appetite among Irish voters for a right-wing or even centrist alternative to FF and FG...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568656#Comment_119568656

I would be of the view,and know some proposing it earlier this summer with some meetings planned....the vote to dissolve barely passed iirc,and it would have a core of members who still have something to offer politics

I don't particularly agree with their politics,but I do acknowledge their is a cohort whom long for likes of Micheal McDowell time over the dept justice,and would I believe have potential to deliver several TDs

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568521#Comment_119568521

The PDs were only ever Provisional Fianna Fail. They had a chance to go mainstream with Pat Cox but instead installed Mary Harney as leader. With Cox as leader, there would have been a chance that they could have gained more support and eclipsed FG. Cox beat Dessie O'Malley for a Euro seat and later became president of the European Parliament. The larger parties also adopt the more popular polices of niche parties as their own. The PD's big issue was income tax. After that, they didn't have much to distinguish themselves from FF/FG. Much like Labour, they were dependent on transfers. When the transfers disappeared, so did they.

FG's social liberalism is quite a recent thing. Labour, for much of its existence, was nothing more than a mudguard for FF/FG. When it was nearly obliterated in 2016, it was obvious that FF and FG would eventually end up in coalition within an election cycle or so.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568679#Comment_119568679

As McD himself was wont to remark, "Just bbecause there's a gap in the market doesn't mean there's a market in the gap." Remember Renua with an able and high-profile leader fell as flat as their tax proposals...

jmcc

On the Trump associations of FG, Varadkar made a phone call.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43425048

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568321#Comment_119568321

FF, FG and Labour are far from toxic 👍

Same spin as people trying to say FF and FG are the same

Lets see what happens in an election

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568713#Comment_119568713

You really haven't a clue about Irish politics. Labour was so toxic that it went from 37 seats in 2011 to 7 seats in 2016. Its current leader only got elected in Dublin Bay South because of Varadkar's pettiness about Kate O'Connell. Had she been the FG candidate, she would have won the seat. And FF's candidate in that bye-election only managed 4.6% of the first preference vote. Had FG managed its vote in 2020, she could have won the seat instead of Jim O'Callaghan/FF. FF is, according to the latest opinion poll down to 16%. FG is at 21% and Varadkar and Martin are increasingly unpopular. Troy Story has caused serious problems for FF and now Donnelly is causing problems, Martin reappointed Calleary of Golfgate infamy. A great way to get the electorate to remember that politicians partied while people died. And Labour is not in the coalition government of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Regards...jmcc

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568713#Comment_119568713

They are essentially the same, they've been backing each other to the hilt for ages now, from Zappone affair to Leo, to 11 houses Troy and Donnelly.

To some FFers (not saying you're one 😉) aligning themselves with FG must stick in their craw, as a "Republican" party.

But it happened. Now the big challenge will be trying to disassociate themselves from each other come next election.

As a non party affiliated member of the public, the next election will be comedy gold for me. I'll get great enjoyment watching FFG try to campaign as separate entities, and even more as I watch more and more of the toxic power swaps lose seats.

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568321#Comment_119568321

Most interesting thing is how fragmented Irish politics has become. Very hard to pick a working coalition goverment from those figures. SF + SD + Lab + PBP + Aú = 51% vs. FF + FG + GP is only 38%. Minority government is on the way and the balance of power will likely be held by looney independents focused on local issues that are the jobs of County councillors. Will be all down to covering those percentages to seats for SF and seeing if they can get some coalition partners on board, which I feel they'll struggle to do. Could be a very disappointing result for SF voters.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568819#Comment_119568819

Will be all down to covering those percentages to seats for SF and seeing if they can get some coalition partners on board, which I feel they'll struggle to do.

Why should they struggle? If the numbers are there for a non-FF/FG government the other left parties, or what's left of them, will queueing up to do business with SF...

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568819#Comment_119568819

FF and FG used to routinely get over 80% of the votes in GEs a few decades ago. What has happened is that the electorate has changed and more parties have emerged to take advantage of those changes. The parties that haven't evolved gradually lost seats. Even FF and FG tried to reinvent themselves as being somewhat liberal and latched on to the various referenda issues.

The important thing to remember about opinion polls is that they generally only ask about first preference votes and guesstimate support at a national level. Outside the poll toppers, most TDs are elected on transfers. SF needs to be over 40% to get enough seats for a majority government while FF and FG run a serious risk of under-performing by knocking out each other's candidates.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568781#Comment_119568781

Discuss the topic.

As I said they are not toxic. Labour have had some issues but far from getting rid of the name Labour out of Irish politics. Neither would FF or FG ever dream of getting rid of their name

Totally ridiculous suggestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568790#Comment_119568790

They are not the same. Im sure it won't stop the same few people posting it, seems to be a tactic. So please carry on

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568692#Comment_119568692

FG's social liberalism is quite a recent thing. Labour, for much of its existence, was nothing more than a mudguard for FF/FG. When it was nearly obliterated in 2016, it was obvious that FF and FG would eventually end up in coalition within an election cycle or so.

Not that recent. It came out of the 60s at a time when FF was effectively a mudguard of the RCC. Fitzgerald would never have proposed the 8th; it was landed on him by the FF deal with the Church. In government they also lifted the ban on contraception in 1985 and backed divorce too in 1986.

Their conservatism was more fiscal in contrast to the freewheeling and somewhat reckless FF(twice!). They've also been seen as the party of law and order.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568913#Comment_119568913

It's hardly a "tactic" to discuss what we can see going on in front of our faces.

If the truth is so hurtful to you, you might want to consider changing your signature.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568958#Comment_119568958

Clearly a tactic. One group pushing it.

Why would it be hurtful to me? it is a lie after all and shows a complete lack of knowledge of politics in Ireland by the people that push it

Plus this is a discussion forum and light entertainment.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568947#Comment_119568947

It was only an element of FG rather than FG as a party. It was more of a changing electorate than a change in FG that encouraged the socially liberal element in FG. FG was also quite iffy when it came to fiscal matters and even its pre-2007 policies were also focused on spending as if the property bubble would continue. As for FG being the party of law and order, recent events and various historical events have completely undermined that reputation.

Regards...jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568958#Comment_119568958

Waterford city,nicknamed strike city for its historically militant workforce,couldn't even field a labour candidate at last election.....it's on its deathbed as a party

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568790#Comment_119568790

As things stand they probably have more to gain by hanging together on the improving housing market gamble. If that ship comes in as they hope it makes their position a lot better. TBH they've no real choice on it anyway as it will still be the big election issue in 2024-25.