FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602563#Comment_119602563

As I said,dancing on head of a pin,using pedanticism to justify,what is essentially racism is a poor look

But look it,your entitled to hold rather dubious views as much as the next person🥲....just don't wail,when anyone dare and point it out

atticu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602579#Comment_119602579

I think that everyone can read what you claimed, and how you have tried to back down from your claim.

I did not claim anything, or express any views.

So trying to transfer your views and opinions onto me is not going to work.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602599#Comment_119602599

I haven't backed down from anything....I think it's open to accusations of bigotry basing the government decision on aslyum seekers that allows em to treat different based where they come from

Quite why you need jump through hoops to downplay/justify it,is your own cross to carry

atticu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119602609#Comment_119602609

So, you are still standing by your false claim without any proof.

OK.

Cluedo Monopoly

Dail back this week. Should be fun. FFG will need to brace themselves.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119601762#Comment_119601762

Is that the poll showing the government parties at a time of the biggest inflation crisis for nearly 50 years on a combined 49% and likely to be reelected on those figures?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119600897#Comment_119600897

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119600553#Comment_119600553

Now, I know you claim to be a journalist, and I with many others don't find that credible. It doesn't help that you misquote and misrepresent my post.

I asked: "And what has Denis O'Brien allegedly being a longtime friend of FG got to do with me?"

You responded: "Where did I say he (O'Brien) had anything to do with you?"

That is not what I said you did.

The first responsibility of journalism is to accuracy and truth, to faithfully represent what they have been told and what they learned. If a poster claiming to be a journalist is obviously compromised by bias, personal hang-ups about others, and misrepresents others continuously, their claim to be a respected journalist is hardly worth taking seriously, is it?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605047#Comment_119605047

Is his post a news article?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605053#Comment_119605053

If he applies bias and misrepresentation to his posts on boards.ie, it is not credible to accept, without seeing his articles outside of boards, that he is a credible journalist not prone to bias and misrepresentation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605091#Comment_119605091

The entire media is prone to bias and misrepresentation.....remember the SF keeping info on people,quickly transformed into ffg keeping voting intentions of people...both being same thing

You are free to report any article you feel is bias to press ombudsman btw,

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605104#Comment_119605104

We wouldn't be having this conversation if the poster hadn't tried to boost his contributions by claiming he was a journalist. All he has done is lower the status in which they are held.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604993#Comment_119604993

Perhaps you think that this post makes you look smart but it is simply stating the results of a poll of around 905 (I think) people conducted face to face over a number of days. The talk about the Siteserv report may have influenced FG's support. That Siteserv report did remind voters of FG's association with Dinny O'Brien (Moriarty, Lowry, Siteserv etc) and how nothing was done by FG. Just to explain it in simple terms for you, those are polls that try to measure first preference national support for the parties using various methodologies. However, outside the poll-toppers most of the TDs are elected on transfers. TDs are also elected at a local level. This is why institutionalised political correspondents and political reporters are frequently confused by election results.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605573#Comment_119605573

If the three government parties get a combined 49%, they will be re-elected without a doubt. Sorry to break that bad news to you.

As for your notion about transfers, in the history of this state, 90% of TDs have been elected on the basis of the order of first preference.

You say that outside of the poll-toppers most of the TDs are elected on transfers. Well just to look at my own constituency Dublin West, only 3 TDs since 1981 have been elected when outside of the seat places on Count 1. Transfers matter but not to the extent you claim.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605047#Comment_119605047

Amazing how you see fit to lecture people on Journalism and posting on Boards.ie. There was a rather nasty attempt at doxxing on another thread. You've been continually defending FFG here on various threads. FG's associations with Dinny O'Brien are well known and have featured in reams of newspaper articles, a few books, the Moriarty Tribunal and now the Siteserv report. There's a difference between posting on a forum with anonymous posters and writing an article for publication. As a journalist, it is important to get the facts right for publication. Posting on fora generally involves expressing personal opinions.

Regards...jmcc

maceoin.D.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605609#Comment_119605609

If.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605573#Comment_119605573

Well said. FG are so alienated from everyone except they very core support (who must be wavering) that they will struggle to buy a transfer in GE.Next. FF might be getting some traction again but their legacy will haunt them too.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605619#Comment_119605619

I don't claim to be a journalist. I don't claim elevated status for my posts as a result or additional credibility. If someone does make the claim, it is fair to assess it.

I don't defend Denis O'Brien, I don't like the man, but I do call out silly ideas that have no legal standing such as banning him from state contracts.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605632#Comment_119605632

Fully accept that, but then again, I am not a poster jumping up and down with excitement over opinion polls, particularly mid-term opinion polls.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605641#Comment_119605641

It is the transfers issue that is the real problem for FF/FG. The electorate is beginning to consider them to be a single party and this means that the transfers will stay within FF/FG. That will cause FF and FG candidates to fratricide and knock each other out as the count progresses.

B&A is always more favourable to FF due to FF's older support demographics. RedC has always favoured FG and Labour so these %s are bound to be worrying FG. The real problem for FFG is that SF's % is solid across polls with different methodologies. That kind of thing used to only happen in the last weeks before a GE. The fact that SF's position has been stable for a few months could indicate that the next GE will be much more problematic for FF/FG than previous ones because there is the expectation of SF being a complete alternative to FFG. That's likely to attract some floating votes and the Housing, Homelessness and Health issues have not been resolved. SF is making the right noises on energy bills while FFG politicians talk in generalities rather than specifics.

The core support issue is also a problem for FFG because those voters are also getting hit with increased energy bills and cost of living increases. There's no better way to affect an FFG voter's loyalty than to hit them in the pocket.

Regards...jmcc

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605047#Comment_119605047

One of the great things about internet forums is that people can claim all sorts of things, and others are free to find those claims either credible, or not credible.

Even claims like this.

Now, I know you claim to be a journalist, and I with many others don't find that credible. It doesn't help that you misquote and misrepresent my post.

Because I am not a journalist, nor have I ever claimed to be one. So that means yourself "with many others" have been discussing (behind the scenes? Or can you show me where it was being discussed publicly?) the credibility of something I never made a claim to, either on this site or any other, in my entire life.

You can either admit your mistake, or double down on it. I'm not bothered either way.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605675#Comment_119605675

What expectation of SF being a complete alternative to FFG? Yours?

This is a mid-term opinion poll with the biggest inflation crisis in 50 years, yet one poll in the last few days sees the government being re-elected. That is the real story.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605768#Comment_119605768

Nah. You just don't understand polling and you don't understand what these polls mean. SF is presenting itself as an alternative to FFG and is providing practical solutions on energy bills while FFG politicans waffle. That's the kind of thing that appeals to voters. Now FFG supporters like yourself will probably claim that it is merely populist but those paying the bills don't give a damn what you or other FFG supporters think. This is a much bigger issue than the Water Tax and has the capability to wipe out FFG support in various constituencies on an IPP scale if not dealt with quickly.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605814#Comment_119605814

The energy crisis will be over by 2025, so don't understand what effect it will have on support level then.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605814#Comment_119605814

And to deal with that crisis, the EU and the government, like any government, have a plan which will involve spending a lot of money to help people out, as it should. Your posts on polls are interesting enough even if fanciful at times but some of them like this try to force the data to do something that is completely untrue. TBH it almost feels like you want them to fail on everything, which will make you you feel good but is of no great use to the rest of the country.

As usual people will use these types of irrelevant polls to see what they want but whatever particular views one might have on the government that 49% support, if realised, is a relatively simple path to stability and a potentially quickly-formed new administration. If one can learn anything from the polls it shows the challenge for those hoping to become an alternative government.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605824#Comment_119605824

What is going to change on energy between now and 2025 ?

Renewables are intermittent and thus unreliable, so the need for fossil fuels is not going to disappear in 3 years, so it`s either more gas from somewhere or other fossil fuels to fill the void. Gas is by far the cleanest, but other than Russia I do not see where Europe can get it in the quantities needed. That would leave LNG, which Irish greens are opposed too, so something has to change between now and 2025

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606182#Comment_119606182

Polls are estimates, typically of national party support, rather than precise measurements. The problems arise when people and political correspondents and journalists take them as being measurements.

FFG is failing at many things and there seems to be no real thinking on how to solve problems other than to throw money to others and hope that they solve them. This causes problems like the Childrens Hospital, PPARS, Eircom etc. Polls are snapshots of public opinion at a specific point in time and use multiple methodologies. These multiple methodologies can be very misleading. RedC uses a sample from a 40K panel and B&A uses a random sample and face to face polling. They can both be right for the samples that they are surveying but can provide very different results. There's also the issue of Don't Knows and voting history that some of pollsters may treat differently. The DKs are a substantial percentage of voters. Excluding them or attempting to redistribute them based on voting history can make the parties look like they have much more support than they do in reality.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606801#Comment_119606801

And yet you're the only one who's going all Mystic Meg and predicting stuff off them. You've also quite ludicrously suggested that either the Greens or FF will pull down the government imminently without even a shred of evidence.

Not really sure why you persist in these long-winded expositions on polls as if posters are somehow seeing them for the first time in their lives. Much of what you are on about here has been pointed out to you a dozen times, by myself and others.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606862#Comment_119606862

Considering what happens if what these polls suggest is not going "Mystic Meg". The discontent in FF is very real and if Covid hadn't intervened Martin would have been gone. The rubber chicken circuit of gathering support was conducted via a set of Zoom meetings.

As for you, and others, pointing out things about polls, please forgive me as I seem to have missed your contributions.

When people rely upon institutionalised political correspondents and political journalists with minimal understanding of polling and surveys, they will typicaly be misled and will be surprised at the outcome of elections. That's why polcorrs get election predictions wrong. They got the 2016 GE wrong, Brexit wrong, Trump wrong, the 2020 GE wrong.

They were unaware that Labour had started to collapse after 2013 and the obliteration of Labour in 2016 was a big shock them them even though the data was predicting this. The emergence of the Big Three party model where no two parties would have enough seats for a government was also obvious from 2013 onwards and I called the spread between the largest and smallest part for the 2016 GE and the probability of a near-2002 style loss of seats for FG based on the data.

My comments here and elsewere upset party supporters because I focus on the data. That's why I called a lot of things correctly when party supporters and their tame journalists got things very wrong. Getting things right usually pisses off those who get things wrong.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606977#Comment_119606977

My comments here and elsewere upset party supporters because I focus on the data. That's why I called a lot of things correctly when party supporters and their tame journalists got things very wrong. Getting things right usually pisses off those who get things wrong.

TBH it's how you choose to use it that encourages people to challenge it. Your conclusions are wild suppositions based on what you think parties will do about such polls. Most of them really don't care and simple addition of support even with your interpretation of them, points to another deal making Dail , with no clear outcome.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605675#Comment_119605675

I love your poll analysis jmcc - dont let them censor you 😉

The confidence & supply and then subsequent coalition have obliterated the 'civil war politics' nonsense which had so many people blinded for decades longer than it should have. FF and FG are now perceived as 2 very very similar parties with lots and lots of 'baggage' and shady legacy. The last election was fascinating but the next one will be truly ground-breaking. It will be the end of an era I feel.

I can wait though. I am a patient man and I am loving the exposure. I don't think the govt will come close to resolving the major problems we have over the next 2-3 years - problems that they have created themselves for the most part.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607093#Comment_119607093

And there's the problem with relying upon political correspondents with no real understanding of polls and data. The deal making Dail and no clear outcome is the general consensus of the media and FFG supporters rather than something indicated by the data.

What's actually happening is a realignment of the political spectrum with a Left/Right axis evolving. This kind of evolution generally takes a few GE cycles to become established but recessions can accelerate it.

SF and some other parties are to the Left of centre and FF, FG and Labour (and some of the Greens) have been squeezed into the Right of centre part of the poltical spectrum. The logical outcome of that is a majority government. Some conditions have to be met first and one of them is FF and FG not having an electoral pact and joint candidate strategy.

Like old generals, many of the political correspondents and generals are refighting the battles of the last GE. What few of them seem to realise is that the electorate changes from GE to GE and that gradual shift is responsible for much of the decline of Civil War politics parties.

The hatred of SF by some FFG/Lab supporting journalists is the product of a bygone age. There has been a new generation of voters added to the electorate since the GFA and for most of them, the Troubles are historical events.

FF/FG/Lab have become a kind of duelling banjos group of political parties that are largely indistinguishable from each other. The funny thing is that some people still think of Labour as a Left wing party. The glee with which Labour politicians imposed Austerity and tried to impose the Water Tax showed how very different Labour was to the party of Connolly and Larkin.

Of course people can challenge what I think will happen based on polls. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Situations change and polls are snapshots of opinion at specific times. What party supporters typically miss are the trends and small events that have big consequences.

Regards...jmcc

Shebean

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605824#Comment_119605824

So the two former political behemoths and rivals needing each other (and a lickspittle) to possibly form a government and the hope that the energy crisis, (like all the others, mostly of their own making or exacerbated by their inaction or bad policy), will not only be over but forgotten by the next election day is a win? How the mighty have fallen.

Not a journalist or stonecutter.

Cluedo Monopoly

The FF think-in in Mullingar today. Robert Troy stuck to Mr Martin in front of the TV cameras.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608809#Comment_119608809

Martin will really appreciate that. :) At least FF has some of the landlord vote.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608809#Comment_119608809

He's also stated he will stand in the next election.

jmcc

Seems that Varadkar is going with the French Revolution theme. Someone should explain to him, in simple terms, how that ended for one cake obsessed individual.

"Speaking on Friday, Mr Varadkar said that far-right, far-left or populist politics “brings misery everywhere in the world” and that if Sinn Féin came to power it would “wreck our economy, the cake will be smaller for everyone,"

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/leo-varadkar-claims-sinn-fein-in-government-would-be-like-far-right-parties-in-europe-41975777.html

Regards...jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608948#Comment_119608948

With several European countries returning left-leaning governments.....an arguement to be had that we would be more in step with direction the rest of Europe is heading,moving to the left,and away from the right wing nonsense he's selling?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609072#Comment_119609072

Or behind the curve given that Italy is going to the right as well as Sweden...

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608948#Comment_119608948

He really is a first class blabbering idiot.

He sought to align Sinn Féin with the far-right government of Viktor Orban in Hungary and a potential far-right government in Italy. He said this would lead to Ireland’s influence in the EU being diminished in the coming years.

Comedy geniuses couldn't write sketches like the material Varadkar keeps churning out.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-defends-decision-of-european-grouping-not-to-expel-orban-1.3835658

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/fine-gael-fidesz-2204730-Jul2015/

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-links-to-viktor-orbans-right-wing-party-heavily-criticised-37825482.html

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609138#Comment_119609138

I remember rebutting this exact post about 6 months ago....

Is there anything new to add?

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609245#Comment_119609245

Really? Six months ago you rebutted a post made in response to a statement Leo made a few days ago?

Magic.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609108#Comment_119609108

Germany, Portugal,Spain looking likely aswell.....if anything,you are making an argument for at least eroding the centre (in reality it's right-wing here anyway) as irrelevant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609245#Comment_119609245

TBF given there links with the far right in the euro parliament and the voting record of fg meps on immigration and rescue needed in Mediterranean

They are certainly returning to their natural roots it seems

xxxxxxl

shordringers polls now it seems. Polls no use when there bad. Same time look how well they are doing in the polls. 🤔

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609138#Comment_119609138

Orban is an awful man , but even ignoring how weak the attack is who is this aimed at?

Nobody bar political nerds like ourselves know much about Orban ffs.

In the pubs and cafes etc in the last few weeks let alone months, how many conversations were had about Orban ? Absolute **** all.

The party needs to cop on if they think such attacks matter whatsoever with the man on the street.

Unsurprisingly they continue to perform abysmally in the polls.

Are they stupid enough to think with this chap as leader they won't get wiped out in the next election?

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/latest-polls-show-support-for-fine-gael-at-a-record-low-1362351.html

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608948#Comment_119608948

Isn't populist politics the key expression here as far-left and far-right often demonstrate the same type of unyielding zeal?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609542#Comment_119609542

European left politics are more of the pink social democrat types and not the naked and simplistic tax the rich. They tend to put social policies first. Most European countries now also see a lot of fragmentation of voting patterns so coalition and compromise are the only real option even in those administrations that lean more left.

As for ours well it's really a mix of centre, centre-left and centre-right but everything is right-wing when you're way out on the left!

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609821#Comment_119609821

No not Schroedinger, polls outside of an election campaign don't tell you very much at all but people often make them say things they like to hear.

howiya

Just listened to An Taoiseach on morning Ireland. Parity of esteem between coalition parties is what will decide who gets the Minister of Finance role in the reshuffle rather than what's in the best interests of the country

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610720#Comment_119610720

He said that yesterday and it's a very non-committal comment. If there is to be a change most money would go on the current twins swapping places. What is in the best interests of the country would be Paschal remaining in the job, he's an extremely safe pair of hands on that front.