FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

Cluedo Monopoly

I'll be honest, I like O'Gorman because he did a decent enough job of the Mother and Baby home scandal after decades of inaction by FFG. I also have no doubt that he is being abused online because of his sexuality. Ireland is full of Neanderthals still and the criminal organisation in Rome doesn't help matters.

Ask yourself too why cabinet haven't stopped O'Gorman in any way. They have approved all his actions even though they don't exactly help him too often. He has become their Scapegoat. Think Alan Kelly and Irish Water.

72sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354609#Comment_120354609

You are crediting O'Gorman with too much basic humanity. He knows what he's doing. He knows there is not even close to majority public support. He does not care.

It's funny because he's now proving his mettle by pretending to be sensitive* to the online grief (that he knows he more than deserves). This is to build support for the regulation of online activities. As an extra bonus point he may even be able to get the ball rolling for TD and ex-TD's to have garda escorts ;-)

[* O'Gorman would characterise this tactic as his "having the strength to being open to being vulnerable in a very public setting" - OMG, again ROFL!!]

Blut2

O'Gorman in February 2021 was tweeting out in each of French, Albanian, Arabic, Somali, Urdu and Georgian about new arrivals to Ireland being welcome and a new softer system than direct provision being in the works to accommodate them.

He was literally encouraging people to come here from low risk countries, and as a result Albania and Georgia were two of the top 4 sources of our asylum seekers in 2022.

Its absolutely crazy behaviour, its indefensible. At a time of a housing crisis encouraging people to move here for economic reasons from safe countries and claim asylum, when the vast majority of the Irish public would be hugely against the idea (if given the choice...).

When you go on solo runs pushing very unpopular policies you're always going to get justified negative feedback from the public.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354882#Comment_120354882

It's funny because he's now proving his mettle by pretending to be sensitive* to the online grief (that he knows he more than deserves).

He deserves "daily abuse over his sexuality"?

72sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355014#Comment_120355014

O'Gorman is brazenly executing a pernicious policy that 84% of voters disagree with. They are adding on top of this already abusive behaviour by floating a story about the nature of the insults to see if they can cause another "Modern Ireland" distraction. We're supposed to believe that O'Gorman, who can easily ignore the vast majority of Irish voters on critical issues, is a delicate soul when it comes to nasty online comments. And again, ROFL !!!

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354153#Comment_120354153

Again, why are you laughing at online abuse?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354882#Comment_120354882

What a load of absolute rubbish. As I live in Dublin 15, I have met O'Gorman, he is definitely a man with plenty of humanity.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355394#Comment_120355394

So what exactly are you saying here? Thatn O'Gorman is lying about the homophobic abuse? Or that if a gay politician is implementing allegedly unpopular policies, he deserves to be abused online because of his sexuality.

72sheep

Folks, I don't think we're going to meet in the middle here:

I'm concerned that O'Gorman is knowingly going against the wishes of the people and is greatly distressing communities far and wide across Ireland. 

Whereas you appear equally preoccupied that those affected/provoked by O'Gorman's humanity/actions are expressing themselves in a crude manner.

We don't need to agree on everything so I'll leave it at that :-)

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120356960#Comment_120356960

Everyone should agree that online abuse and bullying is wrong. I have no interest in Gorman's politics but you are laughing at online abuse.

So maybe you should clarify that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120356960#Comment_120356960

You haven't explained anywhere what O'Gorman is doing to knowingly going against the wishes of the people and how he personally is distressing communities far and wide across Ireland. Even if you could do that, and you can't, there is still a leap from there to why he deserves personal abuse.

Remember this Government was elected by a majority of the people and has a democratic mandate to carry out its actions.

Galwayguy35

It was mentioned twice today on the radio about rumours of a snap elcetion being called in the autumn but I can't see it happing.

Cluedo Monopoly

Did anyone hear that interview with the exasperated A&E consultant on Drivetime? It was tough to listen to it and he said he is sick of coming on the radio to beg for more bed capacity year after year, month after month. He sounded angry with the conditions staff have to work in.

Latest on Trolleys in case people think the problem has vanished.

Hospital overcrowding 'out of control once again' as 651 wait on trolleys (breakingnews.ie)

The level of overcrowding in Irish hospitals is "out of control once again", the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation (INMO) has said, as 651 patients were waiting for a hospital bed on Wednesday morning.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120350213#Comment_120350213

To be fair though the law is way behind where society is with regard to social media. They should be regulated and held to the same legal standards that any TV station, radio station, magazine, newspaper etc would be IMHO. Instead social media is legally able to get away with spreading hate and encouraging violence with impunity as things stand currently.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354153#Comment_120354153

I find it hard to believe that 84% of people would not be in favour of regulating Social Media to prevent online abuse. Do you have a link to that poll please?

Oscar_Madison

Why don’t you just do the decent thing and resign Taoiseach -, you complete and utter imbecile - to all of the world, this fcking prat doesn’t represent me on the world stage

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-apologises-for-making-intern-joke-in-clear-reference-to-bill-clinton-affair-during-washington-trip-42390619.html

Loafing Oaf

FF down 4 in latest Sunday Times poll, journalist attributes it to eviction ban and general housing situation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-fianna-fail-takes-four-point-hit-in-latest-poll-kmks3sftp

SDs up 2 but little other movement

Stephen_Maturin

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2023/03/20/racism-action-plan-aims-to-combat-anti-immigration-activities

Joe O’Brien and the Greens introducing their plan to stop any criticism of their disastrous overreach and totally botched implementation of our migrant crisis response.

It’s been a total bloody circus the whole thing. They fecked it up so badly, a total embarrassment. Has totally turned me off the greens.

Much easier to muddy the waters of any discussion so that you can label any of your legitimate detractors as racist.

JP Liz V1

Green Party suspends Neasa Hourigan for 15 months - she should leave go Independent

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390249#Comment_120390249

They're giving her just enough time to crawl back if the election happens in autumn 2024 as anticipated.

Could she join SF? Mary Lou will surely need a running mate next time, and quitting the Greens over this issue would surely give her enough left cred...

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391001#Comment_120391001

Her only opportunity to be re-elected is as Mary-Lou's running mate.

howiya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391090#Comment_120391090

I agree. I don't see her getting back in as a green or independent candidate. I also wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't run again.

Cluedo Monopoly

The coalition of chaos look very uncaring with the timing. Purely political decision with timing to minimise vote damage.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120374870#Comment_120374870

Next poll will be very interesting. All the fallout from the last couple of days surely has implications for the 3 parties in the coalition.

72sheep

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/03/23/holly-cairns-says-our-generation-is-worse-off-than-parents-but-what-about-the-huge-benefits-from-modernity/

IT rolling out a young female, who well knows the game, to counter Holly. Naturally not a subscriber but I'm sure Finn made a compelling argument that waving flags and going on identity marches is just as important as housing/health.

Ofc we all know Finn's father is ex-head TV3 & An Post and mother is a very active FG'er. LOL!!

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120394127#Comment_120394127

Ofc we all know Finn's father is ex-head TV3 & An Post and mother is a very active FG'er.

I didn't even know Finn was a girl...

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393638#Comment_120393638

Think that it is a RedC poll due on Sunday. Its methodology normally underestimates FF's support due to FF supporters being strongest in older demographics and not particularly liking online polling. It will be interesting to see if there's an increase in the SocDem support. Both Ireland Thinks/Sindo and B&A/Sunday Times showed an increase for the SocDems. The Indo seems to be drifting away from its old Daily Blueshirt image and seems to be giving a lot of favourable coverage to Holly Cairns and the SocDems. Poor Labour is struggling to get a mention these days. That B&A loss for FF (-4%) could have FFGers quite nervous because it could translate into a bad result for FF in the RedC poll. (Wouldn't be surprised to see FF around 13%) The decision on the eviction ban could also affect FFG support.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120394127#Comment_120394127

Can't access the article, don't have a clue who Finn is, somebody must be doing their digging....

72sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120395067#Comment_120395067

As mentioned, lots of people already know this and so zero digging required! This is why the govmt/media hate social media so much because they are no longer able to deliver the truth from on high ;-)

72sheep

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/03/24/government-plans-discussion-on-future-of-neutrality/

Doncha just know that the govmt is aching to give up our neutrality! They simply can't hide their excitement. Watch the IT manage the timetable from an "open exchange of ideas" towards the inevitable conclusion that we now need a Modern Ireland approach. Ofc the govmt is only acting on its mandate to care for the people - sure can't you already feel the warm blanket of their housing/health/crime care ;-) Actually if you think about it, this attempt as a final act is an entirely fitting legacy for these honourable public servants.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0325/1366346-opinion-poll-ireland/

Latest REdC poll, surprisingly little change TBH, given it was taken at the height of the Eviction Ban furore.

Larbre34

Not really that surprising. The Government is doing a reasonable job across the board in dire international circumstances. There are major challenges, to be sure, but as regards Housing, restoring full constitutional property rights are giving small landlords and potential investors some certainty about the market in the medium to long term will stop some of the rot.

Government 40%, Sinn Féin 31 it is. So, steady as she goes for an election in 2 years time, by which time the Holly Cairns bounce will have dissipated and Ivana Bacik will be looking for a new job, because she is useless.

Hopefully a new FG/FF coalition will get the numbers to govern without anyone else.

jmcc

Guess that some FFers will be checking their property portfolios as they contemplate the next GE. FF on 15% would see it struggling to get 20 seats. It looks like the Holly Cairns/SocDem increase has been seen across all three pollsters. Labour is pining for the fjords. The Greens are victims of political climate change at 3%. They'll struggle to hold that many seats. FG will be absolutely chuffed at that 1% increase despite the MoE being +/- 3%. If FF is really on 15% (it is a RedC poll and it always under estimates FF support) then this will impact FG as well because FF transfers may not be available to get FG TDs elected.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120400992#Comment_120400992

Hopefully a new FG/FF coalition will get the numbers to govern without anyone else.

Unlikely, unless their combined total rises to at least 40. On current polling they would at a minimum require the support of the largest of the 'soft left' parties, as of now looking virtually certain to be the Soc Dems....

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120401493#Comment_120401493

FF and FG may well experience a Fratricide Effect that will cause them to lose more seats than their support figures would suggest. This is because the transfers that FF or FG candidates need to get elected will stay locked in too long over multiple counts so that they act as deadweights to the strongest FF or FG candidate getting elected. Too many FF and FG candidates may be fighting for the same seats. (This Fratricide Effect already happened in the 2020 GE.)

The electorate has begun to think of FF and FG as a single party and the pattern of transfers in the recent GEs suggest that FF and FG transfers from outside FF and FG voters has also being declining. It may be the equivalent of an FG 2002 scenario playing out on FF and FG. While FG's decline in support in 2002 was not large, it caused damage far out of proprtion to the decline. The only way that FF and FG could offset the problem is to merge before the next GE. The SocDems, from their rhetoric, don't particularly like FF or FG. They certainly don't like Labour.

Regards...jmcc

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120401632#Comment_120401632

Speaking personally, I’m all for the SD’s, BUT there was queries as to them merging with Labour - if that happens the SD’s certainly won’t be getting my vote. I was a Labour supporter all my adult life, but after what Gilmore, Burton & Kelly did when in coalition, they have lost my vote forevermore.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120401632#Comment_120401632

The only way that FF and FG could offset the problem is to merge before the next GE. 

A transfer pact would surely help? Varadkar and Donohoe have floated the idea but got slapped down by FF. I wonder could FF's attitude change if they continue flatlining in the mid teens.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/leo-varadkar-opens-door-to-general-election-transfer-pact-with-fianna-fail-42132761.html

Even as things stand, they're in or around the numbers to form another government, depending on what small parties and independents want to do. An extra four or five seats could make all the difference...

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120400992#Comment_120400992

"doing a reasonable job across the board" is a funny way of describing presiding over the worst health and housing crises in our nation's history. Both entirely of FG's making given their 12 straight years in power.

"Dire international circumstances" doesn't provide any cover for either of these, either.

FF&FG polling at 36% between them would be their lowest electoral result ever, continuing their steady decline downwards every election from 85% combined support in the 1980s. If they keep losing 5% roughly per election cycle as their voters die off the two parties will be condemned to a very small minority within a decade or so.

WishUWereHere

Bacik being interviewed on ‘The Week in Politics’. I don’t think She has answered one question She has been asked by Áine Lawlor - so far.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402043#Comment_120402043

Yeah but those crises only affect a minority. Everyone who wants a job has one, the standard of living is good, most people can absorb inflation and/or make some choices to mitigate it.

It would be a mistake to ignore a large majority who look at what they have and look at other Countries and regions and think, we really are much better off than all of those places. Our politics is centrist, our public discourse still reasonable, our media not stolen by right wing agenda driven corporations, our kids are getting very good education and can see the World and return home to excellent prospects whenever they like.

That all translates into safe voting tendencies. If, as you claim, the Government parties will keep draining 5% per cycle, I'd ask you to where? How do you explain that middle class PAYE earners and small business owners would ever vote for left wing parties and jeopardise what they've worked for and opportunities for their kids?

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402199#Comment_120402199

Just on Bacik:

https://www.thejournal.ie/labour-sdlp-6029319-Mar2023/

Seems Labour are a non entity. Bacik needs to get to Specsavers as her vision seems doomed from the off.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402426#Comment_120402426

More waffle. The "I'm alright Jack" response again. So selfish.

The health crisis will affect every single person in Ireland.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402941#Comment_120402941

Will it? Have you at least got data to back that up?

I accept its bad in certain glaring areas of operation, but beyond the point of entry its a good system. 47% of the population have private cover anyway, so where you're going with you're outlandish claim I don't know.

You can hate the 'I'm alright Jacks' as much as you want, but thats politics in a nutshell boss, satisfying most of the people most of the time.

I don't think that occurs to some of the parties in this State.

Galwayguy35

It's going to be the most interesting election count in my lifetime so far anyway, I'll be glued to the tele.

FG will probably still keep their core vote but how FF will do is a harder one to call.

The local elections might give some instight into how the GE will pan out.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120403585#Comment_120403585

They didn't last time.

Sinn Féin lost 50% of their Council seats in June 2019, but went on to 37 Dáil seats in Feb 2020.

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120403585#Comment_120403585

Local Elections

FF up, FG up, SF massively down, Labour up, Green up(big), Soc Dem up, PBP down(big), Ind up, Aontu up

General Election

FF down, SF up, FG down, Green up, Labour down, Soc Dem up

Can continue but lets just say the local elections didn't give an idea of how general would end up, some wanted Mary Lou gone after Locals.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402020#Comment_120402020

It would need to be a transfer pact and a joint candidate selection strategy. That's the only way it could maximise results. Even with an electoral pact, the FF and FG candidates would be working against each other and effectively splitting the vote. The poll toppers would get elected but there could be a wipeout on the second and third seats.

The problem with these opinion polls is that they are first preference polls only. The next GE will be a battle for transfers. To see what happens when transfers dry up, look at Labour's performance in 2011 and compare it with that from 2016. Labour has always been the half-party dependent on transfers from FF or FG.

The SocDems are beginning to gain momentum. That's three opinion polls showing gains for them while Labour remains static. The RedC poll had the SocDems at 9% to Labour's 2% in the 18 to 34 year old demographics. That's Generation Rent and Holly Cairns is quickly becoming the spokesperson for that generation. That's someothing that none of the other parties, including SF, can match. If the momentum continues, Labour, and FG and, to a lesser extent, FF are in trouble. FG has been trying to attract the young "socially liberal" vote for years with the abortion and gay marriage referenda but those are in the past. The SocDems are not SF and their support is clustered in the younger demographics. If, or rather when, they start to shift as a result of seeing the effects of evictions, then support for FFG could collapse in those demographics.

As for the Greens, that action against Neasa Hourigan cost them support in the RedC poll. That loss may be the water melon vote shifting. The Greens and the government needed her vote but they acted stupidly. The optics of Pippa Hackett, an unelected senator who was then made a minister, talking about Hourigan, an elected TD, were bad and some Greens are rather upset. The dependency of the government on the Independents also changes the power equation for the Greens.

The danger for FFG is that angry voters vote. When they vote in sufficient numbers, they change the outcome of elections. That is what happened in 2016. Those extra seats for FFG may not happen and FF, FG and the Greens may lose seats. The opinion polls are, after all, only first preference polls. If what happened to Labour in 2016, or FG in 2002, happens to FF and FG then each of those parties will be struggling to get 20 seats each because the slight loss of support will be amplified by angry voters using their votes to punish FFG.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404811#Comment_120404811

I keep hearing this mantra that transfers are what it is all about. I went back and had a look at the election results for Dublin last time out. This is the most volatile part of the country for elections, and with the greatest number of different parties and candidates.

Dublin Bay North: The first five candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact.

Dublin Bay South: The first four candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact.

Dublin Central: The first three candidates took seats, while the fourth candidate Mary Fitzpatrick lost out on transfers to Gary Gannon. This was solely due to the stupid decision by SF not to have a running-mate for Mary-Lou, won't happen next time.

Dublin Fingal: The first five candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact

Dublin Mid-West: John Curran, the third-placed candidate lost out to Gino Kenny and Emer Higgins, a failed two-candidate strategy from FF that won't be repeated.

Dublin North-West: The first three candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact.

Dublin West: The first four candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact

Dublin Rathdown: The first three candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact.

Dublin South-Central: Now this was a constituency where transfers had a huge impact, Catherine Byrne losing out despite being second on first-preference votes. Like Dublin Central, SF were the cause, again with a stupid decision not to run a second candidate.

Dublin South-West: The first five candidates by first preference vote took the seats, transfers had no impact.

Dun Laoghaire: Mary Mitchell-O'Connor lost out to Cormac Devlin, transfers were key.

So, in 7 constituencies, transfers had zero impact for 29 seats. In the remaining constituencies, transfers had an impact on four out of five seats in Dublin South-Central, one out of four in Dun Laoghaire, one out of four in Dublin Central, and two out of four in Dublin Mid-West.

Out of 46 seats, transfers had an impact on 8 of them, four in one constituency due to the failure of SF to run someone alongside O'Snodaigh.

Them's the facts.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120402426#Comment_120402426

The housing crisis effects everyone under 40 in the country, and plenty of people over 40 who have kids in their 20s (or 30s...) living at home with them. And it effects any business owner trying to get staff. The health crisis effects every single Irish person. Nobody goes a lifetime without using our health services.

I'm not claiming that FF & FG have been draining at 5% per cycle, its a fact.

1982 election combined FF & FG total - 84%

1989 election - 74%

2002 election - 63%

2011 election - 55%

2020 election - 43%

2023 election polls - 36%

Its a very consistent 10% per decade decline in support, that goes back almost half a century now, that shows no signs of slowing down.

"Middle class PAYE earners" are apparently ditching them rapidly, along with everyone else. The trend is extremely consistent over the years - FF&FG have been losing the support of approx 1% of the electorate every year that goes past, because their voters are literally dying off.

Have a look at any age based polls if you want to see where the trend is going to go in the future too: in the late February Irish Times polls the only age demographic with a majority (and slim at that, 58%) supporting FF & FG was 65+ year olds. For under 35s they're polling at 25% combined.

The current failures of the Irish state, the responsibility for which lies solely with the parties of government (FF&FG), are resulting in both parties becoming a dying ideology. They've failed the youth of Ireland and they're being punished for it.

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120407127#Comment_120407127

More parties splitting the vote. The likes of PBP, Social Dem etc telling people what they want to hear and knowing they will never have to actual deliver anything. Some people will always buy into the populist politics.

Most these days have speech writers and they just read off a piece of paper. Kind of like Anchor Man if you wrote "F**k Ireland" on the paper they would read it out. No idea what the words mean just something good with a few sound bites to fire up on twitter/youtube etc

Im including all parties in that by the way.

I seen this tweet today and I think it paints an interesting picture of the opposition and the fight for the "working man" we hear about

Also to totally blame the parties in government is wrong. People voted those TD's in because they made promises, promises they delivered on. Like building the road or lower the taxes etc. Hence why they got voted in again. People need to realise multiple government have provided actually what the people of Ireland voted for.

In terms of the youth of today, not a clue most of them after growing up in the most profitable time for Ireland. No idea what it was like when it was a country full of jobless and best chance was leave school early and get a job on sites in UK/US....or finish leaving and also jump ship to whatever country you could get into.

Im sure they will vote in the party they think will provide with them with all the free stuff they think they deserve, but I can't see a pretty picture at the end of it, who will they blame then? more TD's?

Nobody is saying that parties didnt make mistake but trying to wipe hands free of all blame is incorrect.

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1639968453321797632