The end game

gallyind

It may be hard to see, but we’re in the endgame now, colleges back in the autumn, the pubs open, life goes on,,...

And pluck till times and times are done, the silver apples of the moon the golden apples of the sun

Sharpyshoot

We will be back in our cages for Christmas. We cannot have another Christmas like last one. We will be let out of our cages for a meaningful Summer but that will be it. It’s the variants you see.

gallyind

Sharpyshoot wrote: »

We will be back in our cages for Christmas. We cannot have another Christmas like last one. We will be let out of our cages for a meaningful Summer but that will be it. It’s the variants you see.

Make, there’s a change, we ll follow the uk and USA

PTH2009

To me this will be truly over when im stepping foot into a the 3Arena or a stadium When that could be ?? **** knows hopefully sooner rather than later

Oranage2

With how the government dealt with the pandemic over the past year I'm not so confident.

MrStuffins

True that!

By the end of the summer we'll be back in the pub. By the end of the year we'll have a normal Christmas and won't give a fiddlers about Covid.

The naysayers will move on to complaining about something else of course, but we'll all be too busy drinking delicious pints to care!

Sharpyshoot

gallyind wrote: »

Make, there’s a change, we ll follow the uk and USA

Ok make pal

Bit cynical

We're going too slow with the vaccinations I'm afraid. This and the extremely conservative approach we have means there will probably be a return to restrictions in the Autumn.

MrStuffins

Bit cynical wrote: »

We're going too slow with the vaccinations I'm afraid.

80% of adults with jabs in their arm by July.

We'll be flying by the end of summer!

Bit cynical

MrStuffins wrote: »

80% of adults with jabs in their arm by July.

We'll be flying by the end of summer!

You don't think there will be a return to restrictions in Autumn / early winter?

MrStuffins

Bit cynical wrote: »

You don't think there will be a return to restrictions in Autumn / early winter?

Why would there be?

If all the oldies are vaccinated, and all of the vulnerable, plus most other adults, why would we need them?

Bit cynical

MrStuffins wrote: »

Why would there be?

If all the oldies are vaccinated, and all of the vulnerable, plus most other adults, why would we need them?

You are assuming a level of rationality that I'm not sure is warranted. We're about two months behind the UK which has just now opened outdoor dining but still has many restrictions. And, although we've increased the rate at which we're vaccinating, we're still doing so at about half the rate of the UK per head of population. This means that as the colder weather approaches we'll start to see cases rising and the advice will be to lock down just in case. Then when cases drop again, it will not be clear whether it is restrictions or the vaccines that are keeping cases low so restrictions will be maintained over the winter. Again, I do not agree with this approach but it is the way things are being done and I don't expect it to change.

Deeper Blue

Bit cynical wrote: »

You are assuming a level of rationality that I'm not sure is warranted. We're about two months behind the UK which has just now opened outdoor dining but still has many restrictions. And, although we've increased the rate at which we're vaccinating, we're still doing so at about half the rate of the UK per head of population. This means that as the colder weather approaches we'll start to see cases rising and the advice will be to lock down just in case. Then when cases drop again, it will not be clear whether it is restrictions or the vaccines that are keeping cases low so restrictions will be maintained over the winter. Again, I do not agree with this approach but it is the way things are being done and I don't expect it to change.

Why would we need to keep cases low when most of the population are vaccinated?

I think people are underestimating how much impact the vaccines will have once they're rolled out on a large scale.

Bit cynical

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Why would we need to keep cases low when most of the population are vaccinated?

I think people are underestimating how much impact the vaccines will have.

Please note that I am not claiming the policy to be rational. There's a certain fixation with case numbers and I expect that to continue. Hence restrictions.

Oranage2

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Why would we need to keep cases low when most of the population are vaccinated?

I think people are underestimating how much impact the vaccines will have once they're rolled out on a large scale.

Most of the adult population!

That still leaves 25% of the population un-vaccinated. Also factor in the vaccines effectiveness which is estimated to be 80-90%. We could still be looking at 40% of our population at risk from catching the virus. I can't see the government opening up fully with that possibility

~Rebel~

Oranage2 wrote: »

Most of the adult population!

That still leaves 25% of the population un-vaccinated. Also factor in the vaccines effectiveness which is estimated to be 80-90%. We could still be looking at 40% of our population at risk from catching the virus. I can't see the government opening up fully with that possibility

What the vaccine's are particularly good at is making it so that even if you get covid, your case will be significantly less severe and less likely to require hospitalisation - which ultimately is the most important thing. Risk of hospitals hitting capacity is the main metric by which lockdowns are judged.

Think you're right on the 'fully' aspect though... I think we'll be mostly opened up, but with caveats on the highest spreading behaviour remaining for a while.

Papa_Bear

With dangerous variants knocking on our door and our belated mandatory quarantine system not being to "mandatory" anymore thanks to every Tom, Dickhead and Harriot, including the EU legally challanging it, and the unprotected border up north where restrictions are being eased alot faster than our own, coupled with a slow vacine rollout, I can see any progress we have made since xmas being turned on its head fairly sharpish.

Del Griffith

Bit cynical wrote: »

You don't think there will be a return to restrictions in Autumn / early winter?

Can actually see Ireland going into lockdown so that the vaccine top-ups can start again around then, "we don't know for sure how long immunity lasts, NPHET concerned, abundance of caution" etc. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

gallyind

But were still in the end game, some dont want this to end....

Or its hatd to think of it being over

But its coming, US is manufacturing 6m doses a day administering 4m a day till mid june then they are done

Theres a eave of vacvines coming

Debt, inflation will raise its head soon and the news cycle will change

ingo1984

Once we come out of lockdown we won't be going back in. No lockdowns at winter just because of a threat of pressure on health service. No threat of lockdown because people need vaccine top ups. Businesses are not viable long term with any sort of restrictions imposed on them.

If everyone is vaccinated and there are still restrictions, then they are likely permanent.

What else would we be waiting for?

PTH2009

With Dr Tony back at the helm it's hard to see him recommending any major relaxation of restrictions esp with the big bad Indian variant here

Deeper Blue

Oranage2 wrote: »

Most of the adult population!

That still leaves 25% of the population un-vaccinated. Also factor in the vaccines effectiveness which is estimated to be 80-90%. We could still be looking at 40% of our population at risk from catching the virus. I can't see the government opening up fully with that possibility

That's assuming there's zero reduction in transmission resulting from the vaccines, which isn't the case.

It also assumes that there's no immunity in the community from previous infection, again not the case.

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

With Dr Tony back at the helm it's hard to see him recommending any major relaxation of restrictions esp with the big bad Indian variant here

The big bad Indian variant that nphet already said was of no major concern?

But at least your bete noire is back and you can blame all your woes on him. Your weeks peaked and it's only Tuesday.

joseywhales

Its here forever lads, over seven billion bodies to multiply within, we will never vaccinate the world.

At some point we will find a stable state, yearly boosters in developed countries, some people will get sick or die every year and we will open up or suffer from total economic collapse.

bucketybuck

We should be in the endgame, however I have no faith that our government will act honestly from this point on.

There are things that they could do today that would massively improve the overall public health of the Irish people, opening gyms for example, but are they doing that? No. They continue to keep their boots on our neck.

I fully expect them to fight to keep pubs closed as long as they possibly can. I fully expect that Tony will argue behind the scenes that closed pubs means less resources spent on Garda overtime or clogged A+E departments, and that every month they can hide behind Covid to keep them closed is a bonus. They will stretch those closures out as long as they can, which could be quite a while considering how spineless the population is here.

I fully expect that next winter some concerned citizen will point to a hospital at "breaking point" and lobby for national restrictions to protect the vulnerable. And nobody will have the spine to call them out, because how can we possibly argue against protecting the health service...

I fully expect one of the usual suspects to come in crying about conspiracy theories, because there are none so blind as those that will not see.

Deaths are already falling to negligible levels and we should already be seeing the endgame taking effect. The fact that we aren't tells you all you need to know about what happens next.

MrStuffins

joseywhales wrote: »

Its here forever lads........

Yeah, but we won't care this time next year.

Much like flu is here and doesn't close everything down.

Last year it was a virus with no vaccine, so we had nothing to stop it spreading other than social distancing, hand washing etc.

It's now a virus with a vaccine.

Next year it will be a virus that most of us are vaccinated against and we can keep a handle on like the flu.

Live goes on!

bullvine

Made the mistake of reading this thread... I am convinced that some people genuinely what restrictions and want to be caged and controlled like a pet.. you seriously need to have a good look at yourself and your attitude towards in general. Go out and get some fresh air or something.

Mental

Mr. Karate

Bit cynical wrote: »

We're going too slow with the vaccinations I'm afraid. This and the extremely conservative approach we have means there will probably be a return to restrictions in the Autumn.

Especially now with Tony "when in doubt. lock'em down" Holohan back another winter lockdown is guaranteed.

I'm sure we'll get "celebrate it at Easter [ignoring that we were locked down for Easter as well} Its only one Christmas." nonsense again soon.