Dublin Bay South By-Election

Sam Russell

This picture is in the IT today.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miriam-lord-happy-house-hunters-leo-and-matt-go-upwardly-mobile-1.4603851

Kate O’Connell with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, SF’s Dublin Bay South byelection candidate Lynn Boylan, O’Connell’s mother-in-law Nora O’Connell and sister-in-law Deirdre at O’Connell’s pharmacy in Rathgar

So Kate O'Connell is hosting MLM, Lyn Boylan in her pharmacy. I wonder why?

AndrewJRenko

Sam Russell wrote: »

This picture is in the IT today.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miriam-lord-happy-house-hunters-leo-and-matt-go-upwardly-mobile-1.4603851


So Kate O'Connell is hosting MLM, Lyn Boylan in her pharmacy. I wonder why?

Probably because Boylan's team were walking past on their canvass, and someone said 'ah yeah, sure let's give it a shot, she'll hardly throw us out'.

Probably because Kate said 'ah yeah, this will get up Leo's nose'.

Wouldn't say there was any major conspiratorial planning involved.

Brussels Sprout

Sam Russell wrote: »

This picture is in the IT today.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miriam-lord-happy-house-hunters-leo-and-matt-go-upwardly-mobile-1.4603851


So Kate O'Connell is hosting MLM, Lyn Boylan in her pharmacy. I wonder why?

It literally explains it in the piece. All of the non-FG candidates have been showing up at her pharmacy to "canvas" and she has happily gotten selfies taken with them and been putting them up on her instagram.

I'm sure it feels good right now, as a F.U. to Leo, for O'Connell but probably not the wisest move if she wants to have a long term future in FG.

Yurt2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It literally explains it in the piece. All of the non-FG candidates have been showing up at her pharmacy to "canvas" and she has happily gotten selfies taken with them and been putting them up on her instagram.

I'm sure it feels good right now, as a F.U. to Leo, for O'Connell but probably not the wisest move if she wants to have a long term future in FG.

Leo is not forever, and the sun is setting on him as leader, if Boylan takes the seat it will hasten his exit.

Once Coveney takes the reigns (likely in my view), Kate is back in and in a strong position in the party. She's been treated awfully by the Varadkar acolyte wing of the party.

KevRossi

Not even an attempt at social distancing in any of the photos. It's gone very lax over the past few weeks everywhere, politicians certainly not setting any kind of an example.

Sam Russell

KevRossi wrote: »

Not even an attempt at social distancing in any of the photos. It's gone very lax over the past few weeks everywhere, politicians certainly not setting any kind of an example.

Social distancing as in covid or as in politically?

I cannot see any FG politician setting up such a selfie - what was she thinking?

KevRossi

Sam Russell wrote: »

Social distancing as in covid or as in politically?

COVID social distancing.

Beechwoodspark

Yurt! wrote: »

Leo is not forever, and the sun is setting on him as leader, if Boylan takes the seat it will hasten his exit.

Once Coveney takes the reigns (likely in my view), Kate is back in and in a strong position in the party. She's been treated awfully by the Varadkar acolyte wing of the party.

There’ll be a challenge to LV next year I think. Coveney will get his day in the sun. LV is NOT popular among the rank and file of FG

iffandonlyif

Miriam Lord says O’Connell had uploaded the pictures to her Instagram feed. Has she since deleted them or am I looking in the wrong place?

Podge_irl

You think Coveney, who has taken his defeat in the leadership election with grace and worked efficiently and effectively for the government, will welcome back to a "strong position" in the party someone who has gone out of their way to be seen with politicians of opposition parties?

Augme

Podge_irl wrote: »

You think Coveney, who has taken his defeat in the leadership election with grace and worked efficiently and effectively for the government, will welcome back to a "strong position" in the party someone who has gone out of their way to be seen with politicians of opposition parties?

Of course. You don't think Kate has been harassing and undermining Leo all this time for the laugh? Hardly. Kate has been excellent at doing the necessary dirty work to help Simon.

I am not claiming he has been complicit in it, but he will be fully aware of the benefits of what she has been doing and he will reward it accordingly. It would a foolish move on his part not to, you can't be a party leader and not reward that kind of loyalty without it backfiring.

Yurt2

Podge_irl wrote: »

You think Coveney, who has taken his defeat in the leadership election with grace and worked efficiently and effectively for the government, will welcome back to a "strong position" in the party someone who has gone out of their way to be seen with politicians of opposition parties?

Absolutely. Everything I've heard about Coveney is that he is an even-tempered and pragmatic man. He represents the genuine common sense tradition of FG that is still rattling about somewhere in the party and the movement.

The current cabal that have a grip on the party has descended into a frenzied lunacy about SF over the past couple of years for instance, seriously damaging the party's standing. Coveney (not least because of his sensitive foreign affairs brief which he has excelled at) has kept his counsel about SF. While we won't see him jumping into coalition with them any time soon, I think he's wise enough to know they're part of the political landscape permanently now and deserve to be accorded a measure of respect.

Podge_irl

Augme wrote: »

Of course. You don't think Kate has been harassing and undermining Leo all this time for the laugh? Hardly. Kate has been excellent at doing the necessary dirty work to help Simon.

I am not claiming he has been complicit in it, but he will be fully aware of the benefits of what she has been doing and he will reward it accordingly. It would a foolish move on his part not to, you can't be a party leader and not reward that kind of loyalty without it backfiring.

You can't award that kind of "loyalty" without upsetting a lot of your own party who have seen someone actively engaging with other parties either.

Undermining Varadkar is one thing, undermining the party in a byelection is something else entirely.

Podge_irl

Yurt! wrote: »

Absolutely. Everything I've heard about Coveney is that he is an even-tempered and pragmatic man. He represents the genuine common sense tradition of FG that is still rattling about somewhere in the party and the movement.

The current cabal that have a grip on the party has descended into a frenzied lunacy about SF over the past couple of years for instance, seriously damaging the party's standing. Coveney (not least because of his sensitive foreign affairs brief which he has excelled at) has kept his counsel about SF. While we won't see him jumping into coalition with them any time soon, I think he's wise enough to know they're part of the political landscape permanently now and deserve to be accorded a measure of respect.

Focusing on the main opposition party is hardly unusual?

As you say, Coveney does indeed seem even-tempered and pragmatic. And these shenanigans with the photos are the exact opposite of that.

Yurt2

Podge_irl wrote: »

Focusing on the main opposition party is hardly unusual?

As you say, Coveney does indeed seem even-tempered and pragmatic. And these shenanigans with the photos are the exact opposite of that.

There's focusing on the opposition, and then there's committing political seppuku by namechecking Sinn Fein every time there's a microphone in front of a party rep and appearing ever more unhinged while doing so. There's surely some Malcolm Tucker type that's told them they're essentially giving SF free shots on goal with this carry on, but they've obviously been roundly ignored as the Leo acolytes descend into some sort of Shakespearean-like madness over Eoin O'Broin's spectacles.

I'm sure there will be a little smirk on Simon Coveney's face when he sees that photo with Kate. He knows Leo's time is nearly up just as everyone else does.

Annasopra

Kate got photos with Ivana Bacik today as well

:pac::pac::pac:

Yurt2

Annasopra wrote: »

Kate got photos with Ivana Bacik today as well

:pac::pac::pac:

She's trolling the choir boys now. I admire her chutzpah, easy on the eye too!

Jizique

Yurt! wrote: »

She's trolling the choir boys now. I admire her chutzpah, easy on the eye too!

Some reports from canvassers that her treatment by the party is coming up on the canvass - I definitely highlighted it as a reason not to vote for them this time

Annasopra

Jizique wrote: »

Some reports from canvassers that her treatment by the party is coming up on the canvass - I definitely highlighted it as a reason not to vote for them this time

I think some FG voters are going to FF, Greens and Labour over Kates treatment and James Geogheghan being a bit of a spoofer over renua and where he lives

Augme

Podge_irl wrote: »

You can't award that kind of "loyalty" without upsetting a lot of your own party who have seen someone actively engaging with other parties either.

Undermining Varadkar is one thing, undermining the party in a byelection is something else entirely.

I'd say a lot of FG voters have no interest in some Renua reject either though. And might be happy to see him consigned to the history books.

Podge_irl

Augme wrote: »

I'd say a lot of FG voters have no interest in some Renua reject either though. And might be happy to see him consigned to the history books.

I'm not remotely au fait with internal FG politics but I would have thought stabbing your party in the back, regardless of who the candidate is, is not a great look.

Augme

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm not remotely au fait with internal FG politics but I would have thought stabbing your party in the back, regardless of who the candidate is, is not a great look.

Might not be s great look but it won't hamper Kate coming back in from the cold under Simon.

zell12

FG must be worried!
'It is a coalition pact, or sinn fein victory'

Jizique

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm not remotely au fait with internal FG politics but I would have thought stabbing your party in the back, regardless of who the candidate is, is not a great look.

It wasn’t Kate who left to join the constitutional wing of Aontú before sliding back

golfball37

zell12 wrote: »

FG must be worried!
'It is a coalition pact, or sinn fein victory'

Makes sense that current govt parties should want to return a govt seat. Not much of a story really

zell12

golfball37 wrote: »

Makes sense that current govt parties should want to return a govt seat. Not much of a story really

It makes sense in a by-election with only one seat.
However, Greens won seats in last election on a 'transfer left' basis. If they agree to this, it will come back to haunt them next election. If FF say same, it will haunt them too ie. that a vote for FF = FG

KevRossi

It's not like the government will fall based on them losing a seat, so I've no idea why they would support Simon Harris' idea.

If anything the proposal alone will damage the GP.

touts

Newstalk seem to have firmly thrown their support behind Ivana this morning. Their panel have explained why people will vote for her at least 4 times and she has been mentioned repeatedly without any mention of other candidates.

touts

touts wrote: »

Newstalk seem to have firmly thrown their support behind Ivana this morning. Their panel have explained why people will vote for her at least 4 times and she has been mentioned repeatedly without any mention of other candidates.

Update: they just read out the list of candidates before going to an ad break and then explained why candidates at the top of the paper alphabetically have an advantage and guess what Ivana is that very candidate. So even in the formal requirement to be neutral they explained why lazy voters should just pick Ivana as she is the first name they see.

El Tarangu

Yurt! wrote: »

Kate is back in and in a strong position in the party. She's been treated awfully by the Varadkar acolyte wing of the party.

Jizique wrote: »

Some reports from canvassers that her treatment by the party is coming up on the canvass - I definitely highlighted it as a reason not to vote for them this time

I find this line of reasoning very strange - surely its not unusual that someone who has very publicly had a go at the party leader on several occasions finds themselves out in the cold for a bit.

Aside from the Green Party (where apparently its a bit of a free-for-all, policy position-wise), I can't imagine any other political party where someone could publicly have a go at the leader and not have to spend a bit of time in the sin bin.

Marcusm

El Tarangu wrote: »

I find this line of reasoning very strange - surely its not unusual that someone who has very publicly had a go at the party leader on several occasions finds themselves out in the cold for a bit.

Aside from the Green Party (where apparently its a bit of a free-for-all, policy position-wise), I can't imagine any other political party where someone could publicly have a go at the leader and not have to spend a bit of time in the sin bin.

I don’t think Haughey took as direct an approach with Colley, O’Malley, McCreevey or Andrews.

Jizique

El Tarangu wrote: »

I find this line of reasoning very strange - surely its not unusual that someone who has very publicly had a go at the party leader on several occasions finds themselves out in the cold for a bit.
.

The new Varadkar era was supposed to leave all that invectiveness behind - she was a breath of fresh air and a strong supporter of women’s rights and gay marriage despite running in the constituency of Joe Doyle (almost said Alice Glenn); that Geoghegan chap hardly fits the bill given his Renua dabbling.
Plus she is not a legal head - unlike Geoghegan, O’Callaghan, Bacik, Conroy and before that McDowell

headtheball14

O'Connell was a gift of a candidate. Previous TD narrowly defeated. Female, local employer lives and works in the constituency and Leo went .....nah
If anyone is sabotaging the electoral chances you need to look to fine Gaels leader.

Blut2

I'd say O'Connell wouldn't be too saddened by the prospect of Geoghegan losing. Should Leo be booted out before the next election she'll be looking pretty good running as the primary FG candidate in DBS then. If Geoghegan wins though she'll have to battle it out with him for potentially the one FG seat in the constituency.

Annasopra

golfball37 wrote: »

Makes sense that current govt parties should want to return a govt seat. Not much of a story really

Well it is. Originally Harris was painting as FG V SF. Now its FG and FF and Greens v SF. This is saying a lot actually about who Harris isnt mentioning. It suggests they are worried Bacik could pull through on green transfers.

blackwhite

https://twitter.com/patleahyit/status/1409587865848193045?s=21

Going to be very tight - Bacik will do well on transfers, but Labour brand might result in her getting no preference from some cohorts within the SF and other left voters

hotmail.com

Poll out tonight has FG on 27, Labour on 22 and SF on 13.

By election opinion polls notoriously unreliable but SF are way off getting a seat there.

AndrewJRenko

hotmail.com wrote: »

Poll out tonight has FG on 27, Labour on 22 and SF on 13.

By election opinion polls notoriously unreliable but SF are way off getting a seat there.

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

Peregrine

Margin of error of ±4.4%. That's quite wide but it's probably the best we could have asked for in a by-election poll.

Rjd2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

James may get some also tbf from those parties.

AndrewJRenko

Rjd2 wrote: »

James may get some also tbf from those parties.

He'll get some all right, but it's a fair bet that Bacik will get more. So the question is whether she'll get enough to 1) stay ahead of Boylan and ensure that SF get eliminated before her, and 2) close the gap and pass out FG.

golfball37

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

Darc19

That will take the wind out of the sinn fein cheerleaders.

...Ghost...

golfball37 wrote: »

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

She obviously didn't think so herself, or she would have ran solo. After her scathing attack on FG, I think they would be mad to consider her in future. There's enough anti-male candidates in the election as it is, so she won't be missed that much.

expectationlost

golfball37 wrote: »

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

why the is this thread last few pages filled with talk of candidate that didnt even put themselves forward to their party to choose?

Blut2

Bacik and Labour will be delighted with that. I may end up having been wrong with my doubts in this thread about her.

"Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats) 5 per cent; Mannix Flynn (Independent) 5 per cent; Mairead Tóibín (Aontú) 3 per cent; Brigid Purcell (People Before Profit) 2 per cent;" -- make up most of the rest of the numbers not included in that poll headline image, for anyone curious.

Bacik should do a lot better transfer-wise from those minors as they get knocked out in the first few rounds than FG. The SocDem vote particularly I'd assume will break very heavily for her.

Caquas

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

JPup

Caquas wrote: »

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

Bacik seems to have great momentum on the ground. Loads of houses with her poster in the window. Way more than any other candidate that I can see.

Blut2

Caquas wrote: »

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

Bacik is pretty much the only middle class vote opposition candidate. If someone doesn't want to vote for the FG/FF/Grn parties of government, its just Bacik or the SocDems really. And most of the SocDem's 5% vote will transfer upward to her.

So its probably not too surprising seeing her surge, given the DBS demographics and the fact government parties usually do poorly in by-elections.

Faugheen

JPup wrote: »

Bacik seems to have great momentum on the ground. Loads of houses with her poster in the window. Way more than any other candidate that I can see.

Plus Alan Kelly is an excellent campaigner. He’s been heavily involved in her campaign.

It’s not to suggest that Labour are making a comeback but she would appeal to a lot of voters in the area. She’ll comfortably outperform them nationally.