Dublin Bay South By-Election

jm08

iffandonlyif wrote: »

I don’t believe you for a second! If people were to read this thread they’d think presentation of sods was some sort of D4 mafia ritual.

So, they hatched this plan in the knowledge of the out-of-towners in the constituency, oblivious to the collateral damage?

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.

Groan. The people you’re referring to don’t call their mothers mammy or mam. That comes from the same place as your delusional prejudice.

It shouldn't really matter how they address their parents (but it does).!

jm08

I just had a lady call to the door from Sinn Fein/Lynn Boylan. Her spiel was about housing and the need to sort it as FFG are not capable.

jmcc

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, I wouldn't say dumb people vote for Sinn Fein, but any of the analyses show that the more educated you are, the less likely you are to vote for Sinn Fein, and vice versa. That is pretty much an established fact.

Have you got something against people who can't speak? What's next, people who can't hear?

Regards...jmcc

awec

jm08 wrote: »

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.



It shouldn't really matter how they address their parents (but it does).!

You should go back and read the thread from the start.

O'Connell would be running in this election had she not made so many enemies among those who are supposed to be her colleagues.

Yurt2

blanch152 wrote: »

Always one for the personal insults, but this is how the issue got introduced. You might want to check your facts, and apologise, but like the last few times, I won't hold my breath.

For someone who infers that people who vote a certain way are less intelligent than you - you sure are a delicate flower.

jackboy

iffandonlyif wrote: »

If we group two parties together, and ignore all but SF, it’s a two-party system! Lovely work.

FG and FG don’t have significantly different policies. Irrelevant which of them are in power.

Other than FFG and SF there are no other large parties in Ireland.

athlone573

It'll be interesting to see how transfer friendly Bacik is. Her strident feminist views and antics at TCD may put some people off and I'm not sure she is "working class" enough to get the SF / PBP vote.

Sam Russell

jm08 wrote: »

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.

His ties to the Supreme Court are closer than that. Both his parents were Supreme Court Judges as were both his Grandfathers. I'm not sure how many of those served as Chief Justice.

You cannot get closer than that as at the time his grandmothers might be of the age to be judges, no females were judges of the Supreme Court.

iffandonlyif

jm08 wrote: »

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.

Since the 1992 election, FG have run five candidates in DSE/DBS.

Frances Fitzgerald attended Sion Hill.
Colm Mac Eochaidh attended Colaiste Eoin.
Joe Doyle attended CBS Westland Row.
Lucinda Creighton attended her local state school in Mayo.

Only Eoghan Murphy attended a private school. Is it your belief that their lust to see 'one of their own' elected went dormant for twenty years before returning with a vengeance?!

jackboy wrote: »

FG and FG don’t have significantly different policies. Irrelevant which of them are in power.

Other than FFG and SF there are no other large parties in Ireland.

Patently wrong. If you can't see the difference, your politics are extreme.

The size of the parties is irrelevant. Together they are sufficiently large as to prevent FG ever leading a government by itself. You really must brush up on your political science.

L1011

jackboy wrote: »

It pretty much is a two party system. FFG or SF are the choices. The others are too small to lead.

SF may do no better on housing but FFG are 100% guaranteed to continue making a mess of housing.

And yet second and fourth place in the polls belong to neither of your groupings.

expectationlost

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Did Lynn Boylan not live off Baggot Street up until fairly recently? I always thought she did, becuase I saw her in Tesco and there was always a VOTE BOYLAN car squatting in a space on Pembroke Road.

In any case, this talk of parachuting is a nonsense. People seem to complain about the parish pump until it comes to urban constituencies. If someone asked about a candidate living in Roscrea vs Birr, people would probably dismiss it as provincialism (rightly so).

I wouldn't vote SF in a month of Sundays, but who cares where a TD lives?

We probably need more parachutes.

she gave a Clondalkin address in 2014 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ireland/resource/static/files/Elections%202014/dublin_poll_notice.pdf she used Parnell Square in 2019 https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/euro-local-elections-2019/65-notice-of-poll-euro-2019 and himself gives the same Clondalkin address in 2020 https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/94-nominated-candidates-2020-dublin-mid-west so I would say no she didn't live in Baggot street recently

jackboy

iffandonlyif wrote: »

Patently wrong. If you can't see the difference, your politics are extreme.

😂 only extremists can’t tell the difference between FG and FF now.

Bobtheman

I still see this as a FG seat. Unless Labour can convince SF voters to transfer. I'd say FF will transfer to FG

Bobtheman

I don't think the background of a politician matters as much as people think. Thatcher was an industrial chemist.
Politics is its own profession and its whether you can operate the levers of power effectively.
On paper Donnelly looked Good.
Everyone thought because haughey was rich he'd create wealth for us. Little did we know how corrupt he was or that he'd bankrupt us 1979-81.
If we could elect just one TD who thought long term we'd be doing well. Like the housing market has collapsed but in a few years people will need houses because the selfish bastards are growing up and having more kids.

AndrewJRenko

athlone573 wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how transfer friendly Bacik is. Her strident feminist views and antics at TCD may put some people off and I'm not sure she is "working class" enough to get the SF / PBP vote.

Given the success of the Repeal and Marriage Equality campaigns, her strident feminist views are in line with much of the DBS electorate. Her 'antics' at TCD seem to keep getting her elected in the Seanad there.

So yeah, she will put some people off, as will any politician.

...Ghost... wrote: »

Could be that half his constituents are women and he wanted an input on the issue. He wouldn't be the first man to work for the betterment of women. The real issue is that he was blocked from going simply because he is a man.

Yeah, Mattie has rarely shut up about the rights of women prisoners in all his years in the Dail. :D:D:D

Would you like to come up with any evidence that 'he was blocked'?

...Ghost... wrote: »

Ivana does this type of thing all the time, but not on that level. It's mainly college appearances for women only attendees. Males are often not welcome where she happens to be involved.

Can you give any specific examples of 'this kind of thing' that she does 'all the time' please?

...Ghost... wrote: »

She did make the points you suggested, but she did also advocate for the closure of womens prisons and she blamed any womens violence on men. I was pretty hacked off at the time because it was in an article directly quoting her. Her argument about children being taken by the state was a stretch. Her other comments on the subject were plainly sexist and held women unaccountable for their actions.

COuld you produce the article please, because that's not what's in the Irish Times article.

athlone573

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Given the success of the Repeal and Marriage Equality campaigns, her strident feminist views are in line with much of the DBS electorate. Her 'antics' at TCD seem to keep getting her elected in the Seanad there.

So yeah, she will put some people off, as will any politician.

.

What upset my TCD friends more was her (alleged) unethical behaviour while at TCDSU, but it's 30 years ago now.

...Ghost...

jm08 wrote: »

He wasn't invited.

That's the point. He was not only invited, he was told he was not allowed to attend because he is a man. Glad we have established that as fact now.

I would not know about that. I only read about her contributions in the Seanad etc.

And we wouldn't have heard about the one above had Mattie (assuming it was Mattie) made a fuss about it. And who do you suppose footed the bill? I can tell you it wasn't Ivana and it wasn't the Labour party.

Well, lets look at who commit what crimes.

Homicides: Female 2; Male 34.
sexual offences: Female: 2; Male 185.


Can you see where this is going yet? If you don't: Men commit far more serious crimes than women. The prison population ratio is 6:1 (Male: Female).

All you have shown here is that more men went to prison. Again, that's what I have been saying. I spent 2 days last year in court in court as a witness to an assault. Most of those facing the judge were men and were given fines, or custodial sentences. The best case scenario was an extension given to a man who didn't pay a previous fine.

Now, about 25-30% were women. There were a good few theft and burglary cases. A couple of assaults including an assault on a Gard and a woman who had no fewer than 130 previous convictions with the most recent ones being for driving with no tax, insurance, nct on a suspended license. The Gard assault one and the one with 130+ convictions were convicted, but not a single fine, or minute in prison was issued.

Can you provide me with any evidence of women getting lighter sentences for the same crimes?

Google "gender sentencing disparity" and you'll find a whole heap of results. I'm genuinely surprised you asked for a link and I think you must be taking the micky. Here's a short 2019 paper on the issue from just across the water => https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337844261_Sentencing_Gender_Investigating_the_Presence_of_Gender_Disparities_in_Crown_Court_Sentences

Darc19

Bobtheman wrote: »

I don't think the background of a politician matters as much as people think. Thatcher was an industrial chemist.

Eoin o broin is a haughty blackrock college boy

Paul Murphy went to St Killian's and then to the super expensive institute of education.

Richard boyd Barrett is a former pupil of Eoghan Murphy's St Michael's College

Those private schools can really fuc you up

...Ghost...

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Yeah, Mattie has rarely shut up about the rights of women prisoners in all his years in the Dail. :D:D:D

Does it matter? A TD was denied the opportunity to attend based on gender and gender alone.

Would you like to come up with any evidence that 'he was blocked'?

Not really. I think most people already know about it, but some people have a habit of requiring links for everything they don't agree with. I've already shown you that stuff has been deleted. You can make up your own mind on that one.

Can you give any specific examples of 'this kind of thing' that she does 'all the time' please?

She regularly attends schools and colleges around the country and I have yet to hear about one where she doesn't exclude the males. https://www.facebook.com/AlexCollDublin/videos/women-in-leadership-ivana-bacik/488204398048415/

She thought Noreen O'Sullivan was great LOL.

Now, you find me one where it's not all females.

COuld you produce the article please, because that's not what's in the Irish Times article.

It was on the Labour party website....but uh, oh, why is it gone now? Try the link for yourself.

AndrewJRenko

athlone573 wrote: »

What upset my TCD friends more was her (alleged) unethical behaviour while at TCDSU, but it's 30 years ago now.

Jeez, that's some grudge your friends have carried - but again, maybe people would like to present some actual reports of these concerns instead of vague innuendo.

...Ghost... wrote: »

That's the point. He was not only invited, he was told he was not allowed to attend because he is a man. Glad we have established that as fact now.

What fact? Usually a 'fact' has some actual evidence involved, rather than vague rumours. Is there any evidence of this? I'd say there are events every day that Mattie isn't invited to, but that doesn't mean there is a great conspiracy to uncover.

...Ghost... wrote: »

And we wouldn't have heard about the one above had Mattie (assuming it was Mattie) made a fuss about it. And who do you suppose footed the bill? I can tell you it wasn't Ivana and it wasn't the Labour party.

Why don't you tell us who footed the bill so, based on your extensive knowledge?

athlone573

It's not really innuendo it was well reported at the time but as I said it's old news now.

L1011

...Ghost... wrote: »

It was on the Labour party website....but uh, oh, why is it gone now? Try the link for yourself.

Because websites get upgraded constantly and links break?

You know there are archives you can find old web pages on? If you're so sure this happened, go check there.

As goes your memory and claiming it was organised by her and in Leinster House and hence somehow paid for by the state - the event you've linked to was in 2004. She was not a member of the Oireachtas in 2004, and it was the Irish Penal Reform Trust that actually organised it.

AndrewJRenko

...Ghost... wrote: »

Does it matter? A TD was denied the opportunity to attend based on gender and gender alone.

Was he really? Have we any actual reports or evidence of this?

...Ghost... wrote: »

Not really. I think most people already know about it, but some people have a habit of requiring links for everything they don't agree with. I've already shown you that stuff has been deleted. You can make up your own mind on that one.

That's the problem with showing deleted stuff - it's not there to show. You've shown nothing, just spread a few vague rumours.

...Ghost... wrote: »

She regularly attends schools and colleges around the country and I have yet to hear about one where she doesn't exclude the males. https://www.facebook.com/AlexCollDublin/videos/women-in-leadership-ivana-bacik/488204398048415/

Now, you find me one where it's not all females.

Eh, it's an all-girls school. They didn't refuse access for males. There are no male students in the school - her old school, I think.

Hard to see any conspiracy here. In general, when people make claims of something happening 'all the time', they should be able to produce evidence fairly easily. It's not up to me to prove wrong.

But anyway, there does seem to be a few males in the room in this one;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yFLF2b9eqU

...Ghost... wrote: »

It was on the Labour party website....but uh, oh, why is it gone now? Try the link for yourself.

Why is it gone? Probably because political parties update their websites all the time, and don't keep content from ten or twenty years ago. But do feel free to go back through the Wayback Machine to find evidence of whatever you're claiming.

AndrewJRenko

athlone573 wrote: »

It's not really innuendo it was well reported at the time but as I said it's old news now.

So find the report from the time.

Newspaper archives DO go back 20 years or more, so it should be easy for you to find the details you need, if they ever existed.

athlone573

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

So find the report from the time.

Newspaper archives DO go back 20 years or more, so it should be easy for you to find the details you need, if they ever existed.

From the mouth of the horse :

http://www.universitytimes.ie/2017/10/amidst-ascough-controversy-a-look-back-at-student-impeachments/

AndrewJRenko

athlone573 wrote: »

From the mouth of the horse :

http://www.universitytimes.ie/2017/10/amidst-ascough-controversy-a-look-back-at-student-impeachments/

Really? A 30 year old student politics tiff?

I heard she dropped a Cadbury's wrapper one day while running for the bus home from 6th class.

Honestly, who keeps a grudge for 30 years over student politics?

athlone573

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Really? A 30 year old student politics tiff?

I heard she dropped a Cadbury's wrapper one day while running for the bus home from 6th class.

Honestly, who keeps a grudge for 30 years over student politics?

Trust and credibility go a long way, ask Brian Lenihan.

...Ghost...

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Really? A 30 year old student politics tiff?

So now you want time based proof? Should we be keeping it with 5 years, 1 year?

I heard she dropped a Cadbury's wrapper one day while running for the bus home from 6th class.

We will need a link of that.

Honestly, who keeps a grudge for 30 years over student politics?

Probably Ivana

Marcusm

jm08 wrote: »

From that article in the IT, it seems it was an international conference on female prisoners human rights. I have no idea why Mattie McGrath would want to go to that

There are only two women's prisoners in Ireland (Women's wing in Limerick Prison and the Dochas Centre in Mountjoy). It seems they are very short of facilities and are overcroweded anyway (I saw a quote where Mountjoy has a capacity for 105 women with about 140 women houses there). And according to this article, 95% of crimes committed by women are petty.
https://www.thejournal.ie/women-prison-ireland-petty-crime-4596708-Apr2019/


Here is a breakdown of offences committed by prisoners in 2019.
https://imgur.com/a/kW7OGRE

Those are even more stark statistics than I would have expected.

Marcusm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Ah come on.

House prices are the single biggest issue in DBS.

On my road, where I used to live, I would estimate almost 1 in 10 have kids of school age, nearly everyone else has adult children. So the houses should be pretty low-stocked, right? No, nearly everyone with kids under 35 has their kids still living at home, some of them with girlfriends and boyfriends living there too. It's crazy trying to get parking. I can't imagine what it's like in the houses, because these aren't mansions by any measure.

It's crazy. None of these kids can realistically afford to live in the constituency, and some of them will probably never own a home. This can't go on.

Girlfriends and boyfriends, I know it’s a socially liberal area but multiple partner relationships in the parents home is beyond my comprehension!

Marcusm

jm08 wrote: »

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.



It shouldn't really matter how they address their parents (but it does).!

Mr Jm08, you underestimate the legal connections. Both grandparents were Supreme Court justices as were both parents! Both grandparents were also TDs albeit if different civil war parties!

Marcusm

athlone573 wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how transfer friendly Bacik is. Her strident feminist views and antics at TCD may put some people off and I'm not sure she is "working class" enough to get the SF / PBP vote.

Surely she is not in the slightest bit “working class” and never asserted that she was.

Marcusm

athlone573 wrote: »

What upset my TCD friends more was her (alleged) unethical behaviour while at TCDSU, but it's 30 years ago now.

Condoms, abortion information or voting for the wrong USI member. I know which of those has had long term effect on Irish society.

blackwhite

Marcusm wrote: »

Condoms, abortion information or voting for the wrong USI member. I know which of those has had long term effect on Irish society.

To be fair - an elected representative voting contrary to their mandate and breaching the rules of their elected position is a pretty big deal.

It’s effectively sticking two fingers up at democracy and saying “I know better than you plebs” - which is exactly the sort of negative image Labour have built for themselves.


In terms of the sentencing stuff raised earlier - it seems fairly clear she’s been advocating for different sentencing standards be applied for women when compared to men convicted of the same offences.

All things which have contributed to her consistent failure to be elected anywhere outside of the Seanad Trinity panel

AndrewJRenko

athlone573 wrote: »

Trust and credibility go a long way, ask Brian Lenihan.

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

AndrewJRenko

blackwhite wrote: »

In terms of the sentencing stuff raised earlier - it seems fairly clear she’s been advocating for different sentencing standards be applied for women when compared to men convicted of the same offences.

Again, where specifically did she advocate for this?

Marcusm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

The interesting thing pointing to the nepotistic nature of Irish politics is if you Google scandals involving TCD SU presidents that involving alleged exam irregularities involving Brian Lenhihan’s grandson probably stands higher than Bacik’s vote for a UCD SU person in preference to one of the TCD people.

blackwhite

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Again, where specifically did she advocate for this?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30362968.html

Alternatives to prison should be considered for women who commit minor offences, Senator Ivana Bacik claimed today……..
Alternatives should be sought for those who commit minor offences as many are mothers and the detention has a negative effect on family life.

Not many male offenders who can claim to be mothers - some should be more equal than others before the law according to Ivana



And then there’s the column she wrote herself
https://villagemagazine.ie/imprison-fewer-women/

In her own words, special circumstances that should be considered for women

AndrewJRenko

blackwhite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30362968.html




Not many male offenders who can claim to be mothers - some should be more equal than others before the law according to Ivana



And then there’s the column she wrote herself
https://villagemagazine.ie/imprison-fewer-women/

In her own words, special circumstances that should be considered for women

Did you read her article? She's looking for access to open prison for women, something men have had for decades.

jm08

iffandonlyif wrote: »

Since the 1992 election, FG have run five candidates in DSE/DBS.

Frances Fitzgerald attended Sion Hill.
Colm Mac Eochaidh attended Colaiste Eoin.
Joe Doyle attended CBS Westland Row.
Lucinda Creighton attended her local state school in Mayo.

Only Eoghan Murphy attended a private school. Is it your belief that their lust to see 'one of their own' elected went dormant for twenty years before returning with a vengeance?!

Anyone coming from the legal profession/private schools, no matter the party, would be regarded as one of their own. E.g., Michael O'Leary (Labour), Michael McDowell etc.


Frances Fitzgerald lost her seat by the way as did Lucinda Creighton.

jm08

...Ghost... wrote: »

Does it matter? A TD was denied the opportunity to attend based on gender and gender alone.

I don't think Ivana was the actual organiser of that conference - just a guest speaker.

Not really. I think most people already know about it, but some people have a habit of requiring links for everything they don't agree with. I've already shown you that stuff has been deleted. You can make up your own mind on that one.

No, we ask for links as fact checks and to check out interpretation of what it said. I think its amazing that there is no trace on the internet of Mattie McGrath being blocked by Ivana from attending a conference.

She regularly attends schools and colleges around the country and I have yet to hear about one where she doesn't exclude the males. https://www.facebook.com/AlexCollDublin/videos/women-in-leadership-ivana-bacik/488204398048415/

She is invited to speak at schools (or she was invited to speak by AlexColl which happens to be a girls school). I'm sure she would be more than happy to go speak to the boys in Gonzaga and Michaels if asked.

She thought Noreen O'Sullivan was great LOL.

She thought she performed well under questioning for 2/3 hours.

Now, you find me one where it's not all females.

As pointed out, she needs to be invited to speak. Seemingly the likes of Blackrock College or St. Marys are not that interested in hearing talks on feminism.

It was on the Labour party website....but uh, oh, why is it gone now? Try the link for yourself.

Weird that the only place it was on seems to be the Labour Party website!

Cal4567

Bacik would appear to be another example of the modern urban metropolitan left, who focus on minority and identity politics issues while at the same time continuing to alienate existing working class communities. The middle classes in DBS see her as someone they can relate to, she sounds like them, and she may be the comfortable vehicle to row behind to give a bye election kicking to the sitting government, mainly over the housing issue.

This bye election is looking more and more like the typical UK version, which come up with shock results. Have their been any polls on 2nd preferences or is that too complicated?

Annasopra

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

Haha. Its to be expected. Shes suddenly in contention to win so all the attacks come out.

Annasopra

Cal4567 wrote: »

Bacik would appear to be another example of the modern urban metropolitan left, who focus on minority and identity politics issues while at the same time continuing to alienate existing working class communities. The middle classes in DBS see her as someone they can relate to, she sounds like them, and she may be the comfortable vehicle to row behind to give a bye election kicking to the sitting government, mainly over the housing issue.

This bye election is looking more and more like the typical UK version, which come up with shock results. Have their been any polls on 2nd preferences or is that too complicated?

Yes

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811?s=19

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950?s=19

athlone573

Annasopra wrote: »

Yes

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811?s=19

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950?s=19

A simplistic reading of that gives SF/Greens the youth vote, Bacik the middle aged and Geoghegan the mature populace. Anyone want to read into the transfers?

blackwhite

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Did you read her article? She's looking for access to open prison for women, something men have had for decades.

Yes I did - that's why I'm not taking one small part of her argument out of context and trying to use that to ignore the rest of the article, and to ignore all the other quotes too.

I'll repeat again, because you are determined to ignore anything that doesn't suit the narrative you're trying to push

Alternatives to prison should be considered for women who commit minor offences, Senator Ivana Bacik claimed today……..
Alternatives should be sought for those who commit minor offences as many are mothers and the detention has a negative effect on family life.

Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life. It's a clear call for different sentencing considerations for women compared to men - but keep your head in the sand because you don't want anything at all negative about your chosen candidate

Yurt2

blackwhite wrote: »

Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life

Because pops going to prison is great news for the family unit?

Call me crazy, but when a custodial sentencing is warranted, there should be as much consistency between male and female sentences for the same crimes.

blackwhite

athlone573 wrote: »

A simplistic reading of that gives SF/Greens the youth vote, Bacik the middle aged and Geoghegan the mature populace. Anyone want to read into the transfers?

Nigh on impossible to draw many conclusions from the transfers, for Bacik or Geoghegan as we don't know what percentage of their share is from Bacik voters with Geoghegan 2, or Geoghegan voters with Bacik 2.
Given neither is likely to be eliminated until the last count then those transfers will never happen.

The only conclusion from the poll can be that, if the poll is accurate, none of candidates outside Bacik or Geoghegan will manage enough transfers to catch the two front runners.

AndrewJRenko

blackwhite wrote: »

Yes I did - that's why I'm not taking one small part of her argument out of context and trying to use that to ignore the rest of the article, and to ignore all the other quotes too.

I'll repeat again, because you are determined to ignore anything that doesn't suit the narrative you're trying to push


Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life. It's a clear call for different sentencing considerations for women compared to men - but keep your head in the sand because you don't want anything at all negative about your chosen candidate

You're putting 2 + 2 together to make 17.

She doesn't say anything about male sentencing in that article, good,bad,or indifferent. She calls for changes to female sentencing in their own right, not relative to males.

She specifically does not call for female sentencing to be different to male. She is silent on male sentencing in the article.

Stop imposing your assumptions.

KevRossi

blackwhite wrote: »

The only conclusion from the poll can be that, if the poll is accurate, none of candidates outside Bacik or Geoghegan will manage enough transfers to catch the two front runners.

I think it's looking very much like Geoghegan will top the poll, Bacik next and the rest will be also rans. Next step is transfers. I think Bacik will do better than Geoghegan on this for various reasons.

But can she catch him?

What sort of a headstart do ye think does Geoghegan need to beat Bacik? The poll above gives him 27% to Bacik's 22%. I persoanlly don't think that's enough, I think he'd need to be 9 or 10 points ahead on the first count.

If people are going to put in a few preferences, then she has a very good chance, but if not, then it will help him.

Will also help Bacik if Byrne is the last to be eliminated as she'll transfer heavily to her.

It will be interesting. It's an insignificant by-election as it won't change the balance of power but it's fun to look at.