Dublin Bay South By-Election

L1011

FF are running Deirdre Conroy. Bad choice and feels like it's a deliberate attempt not to annoy O'Callaghan

Brussels Sprout

L1011 wrote: »

FF are running Deirdre Conroy. Bad choice and feels like it's a deliberate attempt not to annoy O'Callaghan

It was an odd decision to make the sitting T.D. the director of elections for the by-election. Everyone knows that there isn't 2 FF seats in this constituency. They only ran a single party in the general election last year and O'Callaghan got in on the final count. He therefore has a vested interest in them not winning the by-election.

It will be interesting to see if Conroy attacks Geoghegan on the campaign trail or will they present a united, centrist front. Her transfers will be crucial in getting him elected.

Larbre34

Of course FF and FG won't be united, one of them wants to win.

Its between Geoghegan and Bacik now already.

Blut2

I can't see Bacik getting anywhere close. She to date has lost elections in:

Dublin Constituency for the European Parliament 2004
Dublin Central Constituency 2009
Dun Laoghaire Constituency 2011

How on earth does she keep getting chances to run? Shes by all accounts a terrible campaigner, and her extensive electoral history of failure reflects this.

KevRossi

Current odds, now that the candidates are becoming a lot clearer. Seems fairly clear cut.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics


James Geoghegan 1/3

Ivana Bacik 5/1

Lynn Boylan 6/1

Claire Byrne 12/1

Hazel Chu 16/1

Deirdre Conroy 16/1

expectationlost

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It was an odd decision to make the sitting T.D. the director of elections for the by-election. Everyone knows that there isn't 2 FF seats in this constituency. They only ran a single party in the general election last year and O'Callaghan got in on the final count. He therefore has a vested interest in them not winning the by-election.

It will be interesting to see if Conroy attacks Geoghegan on the campaign trail or will they present a united, centrist front. Her transfers will be crucial in getting him elected.

leaning hard on the word present there cos neither Conroy of Geoghegan are centrists

Marcusm

expectationlost wrote: »

leaning hard on the word present there cos neither Conroy of Geoghegan are centrists

In person he comes off as a complete chinless wonder, a more vacuous version of Eoghan Murphy who appears ultra competent by comparison.

L1011

Blut2 wrote: »

I can't see Bacik getting anywhere close. She to date has lost elections in:

Dublin Constituency for the European Parliament 2004
Dublin Central Constituency 2009
Dun Laoghaire Constituency 2011

How on earth does she keep getting chances to run? Shes by all accounts a terrible campaigner, and her extensive electoral history of failure reflects this.

This is massively overblown, generally by people who dislike Bacik. Its never said about other candidates - SF's TD for Dublin West lost five Dail elections and two council elections - three is nothing.

In particularly. the Euro election was a PR run - she was a second candidate for a party who could only get one seat, which they did at a canter.

The Dublin Central by-election was also a PR run, but she came a solid third.

The Dun Laoghaire GE run was the only serious one and she was a handful of votes off the candidate who got the last seat at elimination; again as the second candidate for a party. Very narrow loss, nothing more.

Blut2

L1011 wrote: »

This is massively overblown, generally by people who dislike Bacik. Its never said about other candidates - SF's TD for Dublin West lost five Dail elections and two council elections - three is nothing.

In particularly. the Euro election was a PR run - she was a second candidate for a party who could only get one seat, which they did at a canter.

The Dublin Central by-election was also a PR run, but she came a solid third.

The Dun Laoghaire GE run was the only serious one and she was a handful of votes off the candidate who got the last seat at elimination; again as the second candidate for a party. Very narrow loss, nothing more.

I don't think its terribly overblown, the facts (ie election losses) speak for themselves. Odds are shes going to add a 4th electoral loss this year to that record too, in a 4th constituency.

Maybe it'll be 5th time lucky being parachuted into a 5th different constituency.... but I'd just personally rather see someone a bit more electable, with a bit less baggage, on the Labour ticket.

L1011

The facts are that she narrowly lost in the only election she had a chance of winning. The other two were PR runs in which she did as expected.

No other candidate gets the same level of ridiculousness about their past performance.

RandomViewer

L1011 wrote: »

This is massively overblown, generally by people who dislike Bacik. Its never said about other candidates - SF's TD for Dublin West lost five Dail elections and two council elections - three is nothing.

In particularly. the Euro election was a PR run - she was a second candidate for a party who could only get one seat, which they did at a canter.

The Dublin Central by-election was also a PR run, but she came a solid third.

The Dun Laoghaire GE run was the only serious one and she was a handful of votes off the candidate who got the last seat at elimination; again as the second candidate for a party. Very narrow loss, nothing more.

She doesn't come across well, sort of Jo Brand vibe

golfball37

L1011 wrote: »

The facts are that she narrowly lost in the only election she had a chance of winning. The other two were PR runs in which she did as expected.

No other candidate gets the same level of ridiculousness about their past performance.

That’s because no other candidate keeps being put on a ticket despite her losing record.

blanch152

L1011 wrote: »

This is massively overblown, generally by people who dislike Bacik. Its never said about other candidates - SF's TD for Dublin West lost five Dail elections and two council elections - three is nothing.

In particularly. the Euro election was a PR run - she was a second candidate for a party who could only get one seat, which they did at a canter.

The Dublin Central by-election was also a PR run, but she came a solid third.

The Dun Laoghaire GE run was the only serious one and she was a handful of votes off the candidate who got the last seat at elimination; again as the second candidate for a party. Very narrow loss, nothing more.

For Bacik, it really depends on how widely the vote is split, and how close she is to Geoghegan. If he gets 25%, and she gets 19%, as first and second, all bets are off, as all the pro-choice voters and anti-government voters in other parties - SF, SD, PBP, etc. - transfer to her. As against that, lots of FF voters won't like her. Her best chance is non-transferable votes, eventually winning the election with something like 38% to 37%, with 25% non-transferable.

Marcusm

blanch152 wrote: »

For Bacik, it really depends on how widely the vote is split, and how close she is to Geoghegan. If he gets 25%, and she gets 19%, as first and second, all bets are off, as all the pro-choice voters and anti-government voters in other parties - SF, SD, PBP, etc. - transfer to her. As against that, lots of FF voters won't like her. Her best chance is non-transferable votes, eventually winning the election with something like 38% to 37%, with 25% non-transferable.

More importantly than SF/SD/PBP, she’ll attract a lot of Green transfers. She’ll surely also be more popular for FF 2nd preferences than an FGer.

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

I can't see Bacik getting anywhere close. She to date has lost elections in:

Dublin Constituency for the European Parliament 2004
Dublin Central Constituency 2009
Dun Laoghaire Constituency 2011

How on earth does she keep getting chances to run? Shes by all accounts a terrible campaigner, and her extensive electoral history of failure reflects this.

Possibly because she keeps winning Seanad elections.

Topgear on Dave

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Possibly because she keeps winning Seanad elections.

General elections have ordinary people voting in them though.

blackwhite

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Possibly because she keeps winning Seanad elections.

So does Ronan Mullen. Yet I doubt many people would put their money on him winning a Dáil seat in any constituency.


The difference between Bacik's record in elections and the many others whom have lost a number of times before finally getting in is that there's an impression that Labour have kept parachuting her into different races, instead of having her put in the hard work of building a presence and reputation in a single constituency.

Blut2

blackwhite wrote: »

The difference between Bacik's record in elections and the many others whom have lost a number of times before finally getting in is that there's an impression that Labour have kept parachuting her into different races, instead of having her put in the hard work of building a presence and reputation in a single constituency.

This would be my biggest issue with her. Theres nothing wrong with running multiple times in the same constituency, while you're working away building local support as a county councilor on local issues. Thats a tried and tested path to success. But Bacik is just repeatedly parachuted into different constituencies where she has no local support, has never done any local work, and has no hope of winning - to the waste of valuable party resources, and a rare general election spot.

It would make far more sense to have a local Labour activist/county councilor from the area running and building up support and name brand recognition for themselves, who's committed to the area for the long term.

Bacik is just going to lose again in Dublin Bay South (for the 4th time, in a 4th constituency) now. And presumably then get parachuted into a 5th different leafy Dublin constituency in a few years so they also get their turn to reject her - Dublin Rathdown maybe?

AndrewJRenko

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

General elections have ordinary people voting in them though.

The ordinary people of DBS would have a fair sprinkling of Trinity graduates in there, probably more than any other constituency in the country, except maybe DL.

Blut2 wrote: »

This would be my biggest issue with her. Theres nothing wrong with running multiple times in the same constituency, while you're working away building local support as a county councilor on local issues. Thats a tried and tested path to success. But Bacik is just repeatedly parachuted into different constituencies where she has no local support, has never done any local work, and has no hope of winning - to the waste of valuable party resources, and a rare general election spot.

It would make far more sense to have a local Labour activist/county councilor from the area running and building up support and name brand recognition for themselves, who's committed to the area for the long term.

Bacik is just going to lose again in Dublin Bay South (for the 4th time, in a 4th constituency) now. And presumably then get parachuted into a 5th different leafy Dublin constituency in a few years so they also get their turn to reject her - Dublin Rathdown maybe?

Things work different in smaller parties. She has strong recognition amongst Trinity graduates, of which DBS and DL would be well populated.

blackwhite wrote: »

So does Ronan Mullen. Yet I doubt many people would put their money on him winning a Dáil seat in any constituency.


The difference between Bacik's record in elections and the many others whom have lost a number of times before finally getting in is that there's an impression that Labour have kept parachuting her into different races, instead of having her put in the hard work of building a presence and reputation in a single constituency.

Her work rate in the Seanad is impressive. Would she be a better candidate for a national position if she had spent more time chasing potholes and broken traffic lights in the local authority?

Blut2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Things work different in smaller parties. She has strong recognition amongst Trinity graduates, of which DBS and DL would be well populated.

Being parachuted into multiple different constituencies, having done no local work as a county councillor, is the exact opposite of what someone from a "small party" should be doing. Smaller parties rely even more on local support bases loyal to an individual than the nationally strong parties that can rely on party brand name.

(though calling Labour a "smaller party" is a bit of a stretch historically)

The number of Trinity graduates, much less ones that have heard of her, much less ones that have heard of her and like her is a tiny tiny proportion of the electorate, even in DBS. Its not a reliable voting bloc, as has been show in her previous electoral performance.

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

Being parachuted into multiple different constituencies, having done no local work as a county councillor, is the exact opposite of what someone from a "small party" should be doing. Smaller parties rely even more on local support bases loyal to an individual than the nationally strong parties that can rely on party brand name.

(though calling Labour a "smaller party" is a bit of a stretch historically)

The number of Trinity graduates, much less ones that have heard of her, much less ones that have heard of her and like her is a tiny tiny proportion of the electorate, even in DBS. Its not a reliable voting bloc, as has been show in her previous electoral performance.

Perhaps the people who are members of smaller parties and have lived through these scenarios many times might know a bit better about how to go about these things than those who don't?

I'd be a fiver that she got more Seanad votes in DBS that the local Labour councillor got in the last local elections.

Blut2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Perhaps the people who are members of smaller parties and have lived through these scenarios many times might know a bit better about how to go about these things than those who don't?

I'd be a fiver that she got more Seanad votes in DBS that the local Labour councillor got in the last local elections.

The members of other smaller parties seem to know just fine, considering thats how they do it and usually successfully get elected?

Dermot Lacey won 1,790 first preference votes in Pembroke in the 2019 local elections for Labour. All voters in one small part of DBS.

Ivana Bacik won 3,498 first preferences in the Seanad elections in 2020. From voters across the the entire country.

So unless well over half of Bacik's votes came exclusively from DBS I'll take that fiver. Paypal? Or a donation to a charity would be nice either.

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

The members of other smaller parties seem to know just fine, considering thats how they do it and usually successfully get elected?

Dermot Lacey won 1,790 first preference votes in Pembroke in the 2019 local elections for Labour. All voters in one small part of DBS.

Ivana Bacik won 3,498 first preferences in the Seanad elections in 2020. From voters across the the entire country.

So unless well over half of Bacik's votes came exclusively from DBS I'll take that fiver. Paypal? Or a donation to a charity would be nice either.

Other smaller parties like the Greens who parachuted Eamonn in DBS when things weren't working out in Dublin Rathdown where he actually lives?

Fair cop re Lacey though. I was thinking more about young Donoghue chap.

Name your charity.

Blut2

Fair play. I've always been partial to helping animals, so the DSPCA would be great: https://www.dspca.ie/donation

expectationlost

remember when Labour ran Lorraine Mulligan in Dublin-West

KevRossi

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Other smaller parties like the Greens who parachuted Eamonn in DBS when things weren't working out in Dublin Rathdown where he actually lives?

Fair cop re Lacey though. I was thinking more about young Donoghue chap.

Name your charity.

Ryan lives (literally) on the border of DBS and Dublin Rathdown. He would have been re-elected in Rathdown, but they made the decision to run Catherine Martin there instead.

Martin doesn't live there, but has been teaching there for a good few years and did a lot of groundwork in the area before being elected councillor in 2014.

Ryan decided to run in DBS after John Gormley retired from politics to give Martin space. He used to live in Ranelagh, and was a councillor for Rathmines but lives in Milltown now.

JPup

He went to school in the area too. Lived here all his life. You can’t call Eamon Ryan a blow in whatever else you might want to call him!

AndrewJRenko

KevRossi wrote: »

Ryan lives (literally) on the border of DBS and Dublin Rathdown. He would have been re-elected in Rathdown, but they made the decision to run Catherine Martin there instead.

Martin doesn't live there, but has been teaching there for a good few years and did a lot of groundwork in the area before being elected councillor in 2014.

Ryan decided to run in DBS after John Gormley retired from politics to give Martin space. He used to live in Ranelagh, and was a councillor for Rathmines but lives in Milltown now.

His address is Clonskeagh, not Milltown, and he's lived there for quite a few years now. I'm not arguing with the decision. I'm just pointing out that Labour isn't the only party to move people around when it suits. Paul Murphy didn't have a whole lot of Tallaght heritage when we moved to DSW.

JPup wrote: »

He went to school in the area too. Lived here all his life. You can’t call Eamon Ryan a blow in whatever else you might want to call him!

Bacik went to school in DBS too, but that didn't stop the masses jumping down her throat with parachute claims.

Blut2 wrote: »

Fair play. I've always been partial to helping animals, so the DSPCA would be great: https://www.dspca.ie/donation

Feckers, minimum donation was a bit more than a fiver, but they do good work there.

L1011

Bacik *lives* in DBS - the parachute claims were about her two previous Dail elections which were not DBS.

Blut2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Feckers, minimum donation was a bit more than a fiver, but they do good work there.

You can actually select 'other' and put in a fiver (in-case anyone else is tempted to donate too) as the amount, I checked that before linking to make sure. But great work all the same - I'm sure it'll be spent well!