Arlene, Edwin, her replacement and his replacement as leader of the DUP

Fann Linn

bilston wrote: »

Works both ways though. A more moderate Unionism will lead to a more stable NI which I think reduces the desire for a United Ireland amongst the "convincible Middle ground" on the other side of the fence.

That has to be a win - win situation.

bilston

Fann Linn wrote: »

That has to be a win - win situation.

Totally agree

FrancieBrady

Fann Linn wrote: »

And a better singer.

bilston

Most recent opinion poll I can find is from Jan 21 (Lucidtalk) and it has the state of the parties as follows

SF - 24%
DUP - 19%
Alliance- 18%
SDLP - 13%
UUP - 12%
TUV - 10%
Others - 4%

So the Alliance and the TUV have both increased significantly since 2017. If the DUP lurch to the right under Poots, the TUV support will decline and the Alliance Party and possibly UUP will see an increase in their share of the vote. I think some of those saying they'd vote TUV (as 1st preference) would probably vote DUP on the day anyway, but the question is will TUV voters moving to the DUP offset the moderates who would abandon the DUP.

I honestly think the Alliance Party will be the big winners if Poots ends up as DUP leader, and in the long run (personally speaking) that will be good news for NI.

breezy1985

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Partitionists fear the destruction of the bulwark of belligerent Unionism and the emergence of a convincible middle ground. They will rally to the DUP's defence, not overtly, but by trying to characterise criticism as being based in 'sectarianism' and taking statements at face value without cognisance of previous statements and behaviour.

They will also try to portray themselves as the marginalised picked on and downtrodden minority same as the brexiters and Trump supporters did

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Most recent opinion poll I can find is from Jan 21 (Lucidtalk) and it has the state of the parties as follows

SF - 24%
DUP - 19%
Alliance- 18%
SDLP - 13%
UUP - 12%
TUV - 10%
Others - 4%

So the Alliance and the TUV have both increased significantly since 2017. If the DUP lurch to the right under Poots, the TUV support will decline and the Alliance Party and possibly UUP will see an increase in their share of the vote. I think some of those saying they'd vote TUV (as 1st preference) would probably vote DUP on the day anyway, but the question is will TUV voters moving to the DUP offset the moderates who would abandon the DUP.

I honestly think the Alliance Party will be the big winners if Poots ends up as DUP leader, and in the long run (personally speaking) that will be good news for NI.

Unless attitudes change as people cross to the Alliance then all that happens surely is the Alliance become more of a Unionist party?

I think a bit too much is being read into the rise of the Alliance. It may be just a holding pen/flag of convenience during turbulence in Unionism.

BonnieSituation

breezy1985 wrote: »

They will also try to portray themselves as the marginalised picked on and downtrodden minority same as the brexiters and Trump supporters did

That's their bread and butter. They needed no inspiration from Brexiteers and Trumpeteers.

oisinog

bilston wrote: »

I honestly think the Alliance Party will be the big winners if Poots ends up as DUP leader, and in the long run (personally speaking) that will be good news for NI.

You are probably right but AFAIK under the GFA Alliance cannot take the executive office as they are classified as other rather than a unionist party.

Junkyard Tom

bilston wrote: »

SF - 24%
DUP - 19%
Alliance- 18%
SDLP - 13%
UUP - 12%
TUV - 10%
Others - 4%

Work the Irish Sea border 59%
Resist the Irish Sea border 41%

Faugheen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Unless attitudes change as people cross to the Alliance then all that happens surely is the Alliance become more of a Unionist party?

I think a bit too much is being read into the rise of the Alliance. It may be just a holding pen/flag of convenience during turbulence in Unionism.

The Alliance is soft unionism anyway. Happy with the status quo.

gmisk

bilston wrote: »

Most recent opinion poll I can find is from Jan 21 (Lucidtalk) and it has the state of the parties as follows

SF - 24%
DUP - 19%
Alliance- 18%
SDLP - 13%
UUP - 12%
TUV - 10%
Others - 4%

So the Alliance and the TUV have both increased significantly since 2017. If the DUP lurch to the right under Poots, the TUV support will decline and the Alliance Party and possibly UUP will see an increase in their share of the vote. I think some of those saying they'd vote TUV (as 1st preference) would probably vote DUP on the day anyway, but the question is will TUV voters moving to the DUP offset the moderates who would abandon the DUP.

I honestly think the Alliance Party will be the big winners if Poots ends up as DUP leader, and in the long run (personally speaking) that will be good news for NI.

I don't disagree with what you are saying.
But I dont see TUV getting a tonne of people elected.
They are pretty much a one man party (Jim allister) that's it bar a few borough councillors.

gmisk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Unless attitudes change as people cross to the Alliance then all that happens surely is the Alliance become more of a Unionist party?

I think a bit too much is being read into the rise of the Alliance. It may be just a holding pen/flag of convenience during turbulence in Unionism.

I think the alliance get a decent chunk of nationalists voting for them as well.
If I vote in the north I tend to vote for them.

FrancieBrady

gmisk wrote: »

I think the alliance get a decent chunk of nationalists voting for them as well.
If I vote in the north I tend to vote for them.

Yes, I know.
I was talking about the unionist migration to Alliance. I think they treat it as a flag of convenience when they can't quite stomach what Unionist parties are doing. Remains to be seen if they migrate for good.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, I know.
I was talking about the unionist migration to Alliance. I think they treat it as a flag of convenience when they can't quite stomach what Unionist parties are doing. Remains to be seen if they migrate for good.

They could migrate enough to make the Alliance one of the two biggest parties. Would probably lead to reform of Stormont.

PokeHerKing

gmisk wrote: »

I think the alliance get a decent chunk of nationalists voting for them as well.
If I vote in the north I tend to vote for them.

They have to, otherwise unionism would be disproportionately represented in that split.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

They could migrate enough to make the Alliance one of the two biggest parties. Would probably lead to reform of Stormont.

Which, without a change of attitude would just be replacing one Unionist party with another.

I wonder would gmisk continue voting Alliance if they turned into an overtly Unionist party?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which, without a change of attitude would just be replacing one Unionist party with another.

I wonder would gmisk continue voting Alliance if they turned into an overtly Unionist party?

Alliance are unionist now?

You told me only a few weeks ago that they weren't.

circadian

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which, without a change of attitude would just be replacing one Unionist party with another.

I wonder would gmisk continue voting Alliance if they turned into an overtly Unionist party?

Unionism isn't part of their manifesto so I don't see why they would become an overtly Unionist party.

FrancieBrady

circadian wrote: »

Unionism isn't part of their manifesto so I don't see why they would become an overtly Unionist party.

Can't see how they will avoid it if they get the surge the poster was talking about.

Which was what I was responding to. I am not claiming they are currently unionist.

Hotblack Desiato

blanch152 wrote: »

Those are the fine words of Arlene Foster. When I see all the bile spouted about her on here, I struggle to see what motivates it other than bigotry.

Compare those fine words with the actions of her and her party in the Assembly and elsewhere.

blanch152

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Compare those fine words with the actions of her and her party in the Assembly and elsewhere.

That is why she was forced out, it is a slow process to drag a Stone Age political party towards modern norms (and they are not the only party in the North going through such a process) and she was obviously doing it too quick for the rest of them.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is why she was forced out, it is a slow process to drag a Stone Age political party towards modern norms (and they are not the only party in the North going through such a process) and she was obviously doing it too quick for the rest of them.

What other party has a slew of discriminatory fundamentalist policies? TUV?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What other party has a slew of discriminatory fundamentalist policies? TUV?

I never said they were starting from the same place, did I?

There are other parties travelling through the process of normalisation from different starting points.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said they were starting from the same place, did I?

There are other parties travelling through the process of normalisation from different starting points.

All parties evolve, all the time, in tandem with society, we have a Tanaiste who was once against Same Sex adoption for instance. Now he and his party are the complete opposite in view.

Other than that, not sure why that defends Arlene and the DUP who are still resolutely fundamentalist and discriminatory in statement and policy.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All parties evolve, all the time, in tandem with society, we have a Tanaiste who was once against Same Sex adoption for instance. Now he and his party are the complete opposite in view.

Other than that, not sure why that defends Arlene and the DUP who are still resolutely fundamentalist and discriminatory in statement and policy.

Wasn't defending the DUP at all, just pointing out that they are in a similar boat to others. Arlene was probably the best of a bad lot.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Wasn't defending the DUP at all, just pointing out that they are in a similar boat to others. Arlene was probably the best of a bad lot.

You excused them by comparing them to others. Sounds like defence to me.

breezy1985

blanch152 wrote: »

Wasn't defending the DUP at all, just pointing out that they are in a similar boat to others. Arlene was probably the best of a bad lot.

Your general posting and tone would lead people to believe otherwise

blanch152

breezy1985 wrote: »

Your general posting and tone would lead people to believe otherwise

I have zero time for the DUP, but I do think Arlene was trying to change them from the inside.

FrancieBrady

breezy1985 wrote: »

Your general posting and tone would lead people to believe otherwise

Wading in with Arlene's resignation speech as a testament to her career was the giveaway.

Wilful ignoring of her actual career or lack of knowledge?

FrancieBrady

Edwin's hat is in the ring.

https://twitter.com/edwinpootsmla/status/1387804847303544833