Arlene, Edwin, her replacement and his replacement as leader of the DUP

Faugheen

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just saw her on the news saying there was no problem/ issue so I guess that's it then, she'll be gone by the weekend! .

That was before news of this letter surfaced. There were only rumblings of her leadership before that but nothing quite on this scale.

FrancieBrady

:D True

https://twitter.com/TadhgHickey/status/1387121726547546116

awec

Fionn1952 wrote: »

The fact that Poots of, 'no blood donations from the gays' and, 'there should be a Young Earth Creationist alternative to the history of the Giant's Causeway' fame is considered their most promising/talented MLA is most disturbing.

Edwin Poots is neither promising nor talented.

But he will appeal to the DUP.

Blanco100

schmittel wrote: »

Sky News just discussing it, and they mentioned a scenario that Jeffrey Donaldson could go for the leadership, and instead of giving up his Westminster seat appoint an MLA as First Minister.

Fingers crossed Sammy Wilson was watching!

Donaldson would be safe pair of hands but he wouldn't appease the hardliners.

Isn't there a rift between Donaldson and the Dodds clan aswell? Part of different churches or something, Donaldson's version of Presbyterianism being significantly more moderate. Dodds is more fundamentalist free Presbyterian Church of Ulster and Donaldson is church of Ireland.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Sky News just discussing it, and they mentioned a scenario that Jeffrey Donaldson could go for the leadership, and instead of giving up his Westminster seat appoint an MLA as First Minister.

Fingers crossed Sammy Wilson was watching!

I'm not sure how effective an MP could be as a leader given they spend so much time in London.

realdanbreen

I hope Sammy Wilson gets the job. His grasp of Brexit issues was so impressive that you'd imagine he would be shoo in!

awec

Blanco100 wrote: »

Donaldson would be safe pair of hands but he wouldn't appease the hardliners.

Isn't there a rift between Donaldson and the Dodds clan aswell? Part of different churches or something, Donaldson's version of Presbyterianism being significantly more moderate. Dodds is more fundamentalist free Presbyterian Church of Ulster and Donaldson is church of Ireland.

Donaldson is a blow-in to the DUP. Same as Foster.

hometruths

what is the DUP's leadership selection process? i.e assuming reports of no confidence are true, will they appoint from within, or long drawn out election, with grass roots voting or what?

Faugheen

awec wrote: »

Donaldson is a blow-in to the DUP. Same as Foster.

Yep, both of them are of UUP stock.

Gregory Campbell now, there's a dyed-in-the-wool DUPer.

breezy1985

the purple tin wrote: »

The yanks will have some laugh if Poots gets it. His surname means 'farts' over there.

Will fit in well with Trump

breezy1985

schmittel wrote: »

what is the DUP's leadership selection process? i.e assuming reports of no confidence are true, will they appoint from within, or long drawn out election, with grass roots voting or what?

Behind closed doors vote among the MLPs and MPs. Not unlike the voting for the pope

realdanbreen

Whoever they elect will need to be a good negotiate. They are going to be a junior party in a united Ireland so negotiating skills is paramount.

breezy1985

realdanbreen wrote: »

Whoever they elect will need to be a good negotiate. They are going to be a junior party in a united Ireland so negotiating skills is paramount.

Being serious there is a very real possibility they will be the first DUP deputy first minister

Dempo1

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is this the end of Arlene Forster?

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/arlene-fosters-time-as-dup-leader-coming-to-an-end-as-75-of-her-mlas-sign-letter-of-no-confidence-3216112

Who is her likely replacement?

I think we could possibly see a split here rather than a replacement?

Perhaps but more predictably is any heave, change is inevitablly going to lead to more demands, promises, excuses, deals etc from the other side, in essence another few months of stalemate and sillyness over the boarder. Why does anyone seriously bother thinking or worrying about the basket case that is the 6 counties.

breezy1985

Dempo1 wrote: »

Perhaps but more predictably is any heave, change is inevitablly going to lead to more demands, promises, excuses, deals etc from the other side, in essence another few months of stalemate and sillyness over the boarder. Why does anyone seriously bother thinking or worrying about the basket case that is the 6 counties.

Because if they F it up Irish people will die and ourselves and the UK will be left cleaning up the mess

jimmycrackcorm

schmittel wrote: »

what is the DUP's leadership selection process? i.e assuming reports of no confidence are true, will they appoint from within, or long drawn out election, with grass roots voting or what?

The grassroots definitely don't want a a moderate.

The end for Arlene was on the cards once she went to the Ulster final and got a
warm welcome.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Given the Westminster voting works the dup can't really afford a split.

We are more likely to see some moderates drift towards the uup than an additional unionist party emerging.

jimmycrackcorm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Whoever they elect will need to be a good negotiate. They are going to be a junior party in a united Ireland so negotiating skills is paramount.

Like this?

hotmail.com

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Given the Westminster voting works the dup can't really afford a split.

We are more likely to see some moderates drift towards the uup than an additional unionist party emerging.

Moderates more likely to switch to the Alliance Party, recent polls have showed.

realdanbreen

Given the DUP stance on various issues and their history we know that the leader cannot be
Openly gay
Catholic
Liberal
Fond of a drink/ smoke, or an odd bet.
GAA fan.
Fashion conscious
And definitely not up for a fling or they will be carted off for a " period of reflection " like Iris was.

Junkyard Tom

realdanbreen wrote: »

Whoever they elect will need to be a good negotiate. They are going to be a junior party in a united Ireland so negotiating skills is paramount.

There would be no DUP in a United Ireland, they exist to prevent a UI and sell themselves as a sort counterbalance to Nationalism in the north when in reality Alliance do a much better job of that.

A most unhappy centenary for Unionists.

hometruths

breezy1985 wrote: »

Behind closed doors vote among the MLPs and MPs. Not unlike the voting for the pope

Speaking of which...

https://twitter.com/GMcK2012/status/1387134009122164740

:D:D

Hotblack Desiato

awec wrote: »

I'm not sure how effective an MP could be as a leader given they spend so much time in London.

MPs don't have to spend very much time in London, as Sinn Fein can attest! :pac:

breezy1985 wrote: »

Being serious there is a very real possibility they will be the first DUP deputy first minister

They're firm believers in democracy as long as they win.

They'd collapse the Executive rather than accept a deputy first minister post.

pauliebdub

There's not that many obvious candidates to replace her, I doubt they'll go for one of the older hardliners like Wilson, I don't see any electoral advantage in doing that

batman75

I don't think the DUP thought through the consequences of what a Brexit coming to pass would actually mean given they supported it. The DUP has belatedly realised that Johnson doesn't give a toss about NI. They're upset because the Brexit they supported had lead to trade borders between NI and their beloved United Kingdom. I think it's custom's border which has done for Foster. I hated her myself. Never felt she actively sought to represent all the people of NI as first minister.
The scary thing is as inept as she was we may find in time she was the best of a dire lot. Really hard to see someone in their ranks that you could say yeah he/she is inclusive in their thinking. The DUP know in their hearts of hearts that a UI is coming down the track and once it does their raison d'etre ceases.

awec

The new leader must surely come from their pool of ministers or MPs. They will hardly leapfrog a MLA with no portfolio straight to the top?

So that would make the pool:

Diane Dodds
Peter Weir
Edwin Poots

Sammy Wilson - lol
Ian Paisley - no chance, too many issues behind the scenes
Jeffrey Donaldson - top candidate in the MP pool
Jim Shannon - boring
Paul Girvan - a real bible thumper type, they'd be mad.
Carla Lockhart - first term MP, been an MLA and a councillor previously. Outside bet maybe, but I'd say she lacks profile. She is the MP of my home constituency and I always felt she never really got herself out of councillor mode and didn't realise that being an MLA was not about getting photographed fixing potholes.
Gavin Robinson - too liberal.

AMKC

Good. Never liked her. A right stuck up, stuck in the past bitch. Hopefully what comes next will not be as bad as her.

awec

AMKC wrote: »

Good. Never liked her. A right stuck up, stuck in the past bitch. Hopefully what comes next will not be as bad as her.

You're in for a shock.

Topgear on Dave

They'll probably pick someone atrocious. Arlene spent her time sawing off the branch they are sitting on, now they've decided she wasn't sawing quick enough.

Pandiculation

Well, if the trends from January's opinion polls are anything to go by, they could well fail to be in the next NI Government, if some alternative unionist mandate could be put together, with the UUP and the Alliance party declaring themselves as unionist for the purposes of a coalition.

It's kind of hard to read NI trends as there are so few polls conducted.