Covid 19 in India

wadacrack

I think this deserves a thread. Alot could be learned from what has happened in India.

It seems that the Virus has thrived in India for a number of reasons mainly cramped living conditions. Vastly populated slumps and it would seem that the virus hits people in this region quite severely. Low level's of Vitamin D and poor diet and metabolic health seem to have been factors also.

Hopefully it can become under control, but it might require alot of time and Worldwide support with a population of over 1 billion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npTHqFQ4zsc

Beasty

Leadership has not helped

Less than 2 weeks ago

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at a packed political rally in the city of Asansol, where he gloated at how crowded the event was. “I have never attended a rally like this,” he said, where crowds were packed “as far as the eye could see.”

There are also claims that the figures in India are vastly under-reported

wadacrack

Deaths likely to be significantly under reported. Some of the scenes out their have been pretty disturbing.

https://twitter.com/Aakar__Patel/status/1387801130206318600

salonfire

wadacrack wrote: »

It seems that the Virus has thrived in India for a number of reasons mainly cramped living conditions. Vastly populated slumps and it would seem that the virus hits people in this region quite severely. Low level's of Vitamin D and poor diet and metabolic health seem to have been factors also.

But that's always been the case with India. Why is it just in the past week the infection exploded?

I have a feeling it's due to the mutation and there's no reason to think we are immune to seeing chaos here when the mutation arrives.

strathspey

I think Covid-19 has exposed the limits of voting for populist leaders. Think Trump, Johnson, that clown in Brazil, Modi and that other clown in Turkey. I almost forgot that narcissist, Putin. All leaders of their respective countries with the worst Covid statistics.

wadacrack

salonfire wrote: »

But that's always been the case with India. Why is it just in the past week the infection exploded?

I have a feeling it's due to the mutation and there's no reason to think we are immune to seeing chaos here when the mutation arrives.

Public health in first World countries I think will have proper surveillance in place to deal with it.

Atm its hard to know how much of a risk this Indian variant is. From what Iv seen vaccination seems to protect against severe illness for it.

humberklog

They were doing well enough up until recently and whilst I know they eased up restriction thinking they'd avoided the worst some in the press and government were even going on about "Indian Exceptionalism" (very Modi), But events like Cricket matches and festivals like Hola Mohalla being allowed to go ahead in March do look like super spreader events.

A old friend of mine was living in Pushkar for the last year or so and even during the strictest of lock downs life was going on as normal for the people of Pushkar at least.

He died of Covid last week.

Atlantic Dawn

India is the world's largest manufacturer of vaccines, they should have export controls in place until their vulnerable are all treated.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/covid-19-is-out-of-control-in-india-where-most-vaccines-are-made-how-did-that-happen

gozunda

wadacrack wrote: »

I think this deserves a thread. Alot could be learned from what has happened in India.

It seems that the Virus has thrived in India for a number of reasons mainly cramped living conditions. Vastly populated slumps and it would seem that the virus hits people in this region quite severely. Low level's of Vitamin D and poor diet and metabolic health seem to have been factors also.

Hopefully it can become under control, but it might require alot of time and Worldwide support with a population of over 1 billion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npTHqFQ4zsc

Though doesn't quite explain why India had such low levels of infection up to Dec / January.

Various theories which had been offered including that they had beaten the virus, peoples immune systems there were stronger - (due to being exposed to a wide range of common infections), that high levels of herd immunity had been achieved etc.

Would I wrong be thinking that with India's warm / sunny climate - a lot of people should have decent levels of Vitamin D?

Northernlily

India didn't seem to be badly hit last year like Europe and South America when this was spreading like wildfire. I found that quite odd as you'd expect numbers akin to what we are seeing now.

wadacrack

gozunda wrote: »

Though doesn't quite explain why India had duch low levels of infection up to Dec / January.

Various theories which had been offered including that they had beaten the virus, peoples immune systems there were stronger - (due to being exposed to a wide range of common infections), that high levels of herd immunity had been achieved etc.

Would I wrong be thinking that with India's warm / sunny climate - a lot of people should have decent levels of Vitamin D?

Their skin type does not absorb the Vitamin D that effectively . Its low in African population for this reason also.

I think its obvious that a new variant has played a major role , but the environment seems perfect for one to thrive in. The virus seems to go in cyclical patterns also in spite even of lockdowns.

At the moment it is hard to say for sure either way. Its a country to keep a close eye on

ShineOn7

wadacrack wrote: »

Low level's of Vitamin D and poor diet and metabolic health seem to have been factors also.

A doctor (a proper qualified one) was on with Joe Rogan about 6 months ago saying that the fact they used so much Turmeric in their diet was playing a big part in why India wasn't hit hard with Covid

It just goes to show how much silliness has been said in the last 12 months. Turmeric alone was never going to stop the inevitable catastrophe there


Question is, after South America and India, where else is due a Wave like this because of their infrastructure and factors similar to India?

Surely Second and Third World African countries will do well to not get ravaged?

Or maybe they have been and the reporting/recording of cases can't be tracked as well as the First World

ShineOn7

humberklog wrote: »

A old friend of mine was living in Pushkar for the last year or so and even during the strictest of lock downs life was going on as normal for the people of Pushkar at least.

He died of Covid last week.

Sorry for your loss

I saw you mentioning in another thread that he was only 55

Stheno

India relaxed all restrictions in January and declared victory over Covid essentially

They then had huge political events, no social distancing, and enormous religious festivals which were attended by millions and encouraged by Modi and his ruling party

Today there are ongoing elections and yet another religious festival is about to kick off soon


Interesting article here calling out a lot of the issues


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/we-are-not-special-how-triumphalism-led-india-to-covid-19-disaster

In its public statements, few groups were more certain in their conclusion that the pandemic was over than the ruling BJP. At a meeting of its national executive early in the year, with its eye on the upcoming elections, the party issued nothing less than a victory cry.


In the face of the world “speculating over how India with its vast population and limited healthcare infrastructure” would deal with the pandemic, according to a party resolution, it could be “said with pride that India [had] defeated Covid under the able, sensitive, committed and visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi”.

wadacrack

wadacrack wrote: »

Their skin type does not absorb the Vitamin D that effectively . Its low in African population for this reason also.

I think its obvious that a new variant has played a major role , but the environment seems perfect for one to thrive in. The virus seems to go in cyclical patterns also in spite even of lockdowns.

At the moment it is hard to say for sure either way. Its a country to keep a close eye on

Northern Europeans are pale skinned to promote vitamin d due to the low sunlight at high latitudes. Darker skin tones at lower latitudes are because the is no issue with absorption of vitamin d. Lower levels of vitamin d in the Indian populations in Europe is due to skin tone. Same for Africans in Europe and North America. Why it is the case in India I don’t know.

Skin tone is essentially a battle between vitamin d and folic acid. Lighter skin tone promotes production of vitamin d through sunlight. Darker skin tones prevent destruction of folic acid through sunlight. It’s a balance which is difficult to maintain. Conditions such as spina bifida have higher prevalence in Northern Europe due to the folic acid deficiency

ShineOn7

Stheno wrote: »

India relaxed all restrictions in January and declared victory over Covid essentially

How much of the country % wise was vaccinated before they did this?

If any

drunkmonkey

India stopped early intervention of Ivermectin to prevent hospitalisations, this was based on WHO advice that it was only to be used in clinical trials. It's use has now been recommended again since the 22nd of April but not by the WHO, it's expected to put a serious dent in the numbers shortly.

alchemist33

humberklog wrote: »

They were doing well enough up until recently and whilst I know they eased up restriction thinking they'd avoided the worst some in the press and government were even going on about "Indian Exceptionalism" (very Modi), But events like Cricket matches and festivals like Hola Mohalla being allowed to go ahead in March do look like super spreader events.

A old friend of mine was living in Pushkar for the last year or so and even during the strictest of lock downs life was going on as normal for the people of Pushkar at least.

He died of Covid last week.

Sorry for your loss. I've been to Pushkar, a very interesting place.

I've been off work this week so more time to look at the news and some of the reports on Sky have been nightmarish - a family driving a man (he looked about 30) around town looking for oxygen as the hospital was full, giving him (poor quality) chest compressions every time he lost consciousness. It was just horrendous. I'm glad lots of countries including ourselves are offering support.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

India stopped early intervention of Ivermectin to prevent hospitalisations, this was based on WHO advice that it was only to be used in clinical trials. It's use has now been recommended again since the 22nd of April but not by the WHO, it's expected to put a serious dent in the numbers shortly.

Still hawking magic beans?

odyssey06

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Still hawking magic beans?

In India you can get magic beans whenever you want... but still end up in hospital alas

https://theprint.in/health/fearing-covid-indians-are-popping-ivermectin-hcq-dexamethasone-all-self-prescribed/642475/

Stheno

ShineOn7 wrote: »

How much of the country % wise was vaccinated before they did this?

If any

Right now they are at about 8% I think for a first dose https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56345591.amp

Back in January it was restricted initially to healthcare workers

They have a shortage of vaccines also

humberklog

alchemist33 wrote: »

Sorry for your loss. I've been to Pushkar, a very interesting place.

Mad thing is is that he's Belgian (lived in Ireland for 20+ years) and the first cases of the Indian variant has turned up in Belgium!

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

Still hawking magic beans?

Guidance reintroduced 22nd of April, https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/indiatoday/images/bodyeditor/202104/COVID19_Management_Algorithm_2-1200x2100.jpg?RzVfHMjtyv0eSdheB2m3htdqCWf4xGXH
You know they've been shown to prevent a good propitiation of disease progression and reduce time of infection.
Check in with around the 14th of May and we'll know if they're magic beans or not.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

In India you can get magic beans whenever you want... but still end up in hospital alas

https://theprint.in/health/fearing-covid-indians-are-popping-ivermectin-hcq-dexamethasone-all-self-prescribed/642475/

Alas it's the same with a lot of medications, it's always worth consulting a medical professional, from your link "these medicines should be taken in the hospital settings, under a trained physician. "

gozunda

ShineOn7 wrote: »

How much of the country % wise was vaccinated before they did this?

If any

At the beginning of April, India's Health Ministry declared that it was "the fastest country in the world" to give more than 100 million jabs and "achieved the feat in 85 days, whereas the US took 89 days and China 102 days".

Unfortunately the programme to vaccinate the eligible adult population out of a total population of 1.3 million means that currently their vaccination rate is running at around 50 percent of our own.

Interestingly India produces 60 percent of the world’s vaccines, largely through the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer. However the country has been running out of raw materials to produce enough vaccines to immunize its own population of 1.3 billion people.

The current outbreak means that vaccines previously designated as exports will now be likley redirected to help stem the further spread of infection there.

the14thwarrior

People's behaviours, attitudes, and engagement in activities with ill regard to advice have resulted in large numbers being infected.

they gathered in masses, on an ongoing basis, for weeks and weeks.

yes the government have a hand in it, poor leadership and bad advice, but I don't believe millions and millions of people are that silly to believe one leader if they say they have it under control, and ignore the rest of the world that is largely in lockdown in one form or the other

and honestly who ever believed they were really telling the truth in the first place.?

vaccines are useful.

but if the rest of the world are largely behaving in a manner that limits the disease, and your country does not, then a virus like Covid will, and has, run rampant.

its shocking
it was only ever going to end up in diaster.

Stheno

the14thwarrior wrote: »

People's behaviours, attitudes, and engagement in activities with ill regard to advice have resulted in large numbers being infected.

they gathered in masses, on an ongoing basis, for weeks and weeks.

yes the government have a hand in it, poor leadership and bad advice, but I don't believe millions and millions of people are that silly to believe one leader if they say they have it under control, and ignore the rest of the world that is largely in lockdown in one form or the other

and honestly who ever believed they were really telling the truth in the first place.?

vaccines are useful.

but if the rest of the world are largely behaving in a manner that limits the disease, and your country does not, then a virus like Covid will, and has, run rampant.

its shocking
it was only ever going to end up in diaster.

India is a very very fractured country tbh

Modi adherents slavishly follow his announcements and policies, opposition is weak and then you've the day labourer who has no social welfare

ImDave

Scary situation and really tough to see the videos and coverage. I work with a lot of folks in India and the number of people I’ve heard of today alone who have COVID right now is crazy, and so many more with family members who are ill, or living in apartment complexes where neighbours are sick.

One of the guys on my team back in February described that last year someone in a crowd without a mask would have stood out, whereas earlier this year the person wearing a mask would stand out. Life seems to have been fully back to normal before this spike.

50% of vaccines purchased by government are being sold to private healthcare facilities as well I believe which just strikes me as crazy.

Stheno

ImDave wrote: »

Scary situation and really tough to see the videos and coverage. I work with a lot of folks in India and the number of people I’ve heard of today alone who have COVID right now is crazy, and so many more with family members who are ill, or living in apartment complexes where neighbours are sick.

One of the guys on my team back in February described that last year someone in a crowd without a mask would have stood out, whereas earlier this year the person wearing a mask would stand out. Life seems to have been fully back to normal before this spike.

50% of vaccines purchased by government are being sold to private healthcare facilities as well I believe which just strikes me as crazy.

Yep its insane. I've a colleague here in Ireland who is Indian who thought our lockdoqn was nuts as they were in India over Christmas and life was pretty normal

Now their family are all down with Covid

I'd 20 conference calls thus week with Indian participation only one did not have mention of people having Covid

Estimates are that ita between 10 and 50 times undetected and will not peak for several weeks

gozunda

ImDave wrote: »

Scary situation and really tough to see the videos and coverage. I work with a lot of folks in India and the number of people I’ve heard of today alone who have COVID right now is crazy, and so many more with family members who are ill, or living in apartment complexes where neighbours are sick.

One of the guys on my team back in February described that last year someone in a crowd without a mask would have stood out, whereas earlier this year the person wearing a mask would stand out. Life seems to have been fully back to normal before this spike.

50% of vaccines purchased by government are being sold to private healthcare facilities as well I believe which just strikes me as crazy.

That has now changed afaik to allow those companies producing covid vaccines to sell directly to private hospitals etc with the idea of boosting vaccine production

Until now, the Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech, manufacturers of the two COVID-19 vaccines approved for distribution in India, have sold those vaccines directly to the government at INR 150 ($2) a dose. The government, in turn, supplied the vaccines to private hospitals and state governments. Under the new policy, vaccine producers are permitted to sell up to half of their output to private hospitals and state governments directly at a higher market rate. The aim is to create an incentive for manufacturers to boost production.

https://fortune.com/2021/04/23/india-covid-cases-vaccine-raise-price-covishield-covaxin/

humberklog

I know it's been a year of looking at graphs and they kinda meld into one big big Groan over Time but this is pretty bloody stark...