Covid 19 in India

LeBash

wadacrack wrote: »

Their skin type does not absorb the Vitamin D that effectively . Its low in African population for this reason also.

Is it not that sun light activates vitamin d, as in you still need to injest it first. That's my understanding at least.

rahmalec

McGiver wrote: »

Few comments from me. Family in India, been there many times, know the situation, landscape, culture, politics etc.

The situation is bad...

Official number is 200k deaths. Absolutely not. Anyone who knows/studies India knows that it's an order of magnitude off. Poor governance, politics, poverty, culture all contribute to underreporting.

Academic estimates are 5 fold higher, but in India you never know, could be more.

So basically 1 million deaths is a decent estimate. That is indeed a catastrophe, but what is worse is that we're now in the first part of the hyperbolic curve with this wave, the spread will accelerate with the massive population density, vaccination is way too slow due to complexity, decentralisation, poor governance and sheer population, will take years to get to a herd immunity % of vaccinated. Sadly, I think it will get much worse.

BJP and Modi are in a campaign mode and playing politics to score points - systematic underreporting in BJP held states/areas to show "good results", BJP election rallies going on etc. Absolutely disgraceful. Modi should be jailed for crime against humanity and genocide.

How bad it can get? The 1943 Bengali famine, 3 million people died in a span of a year, largely thanks to the politics too (UK colonial administration).

Hungary will soon pass 3000 deaths per million. That would equate to 4.2 million if that happened in India. Even if the numbers in India are way off, doesn’t seem to be close to that.

Jim_Hodge

rahmalec wrote: »

Hungary will soon pass 3000 deaths per million. That would equate to 4.2 million if that happened in India. Even if the numbers in India are way off, doesn’t seem to be close to that.

Likewise there'd have to be over 73,000,000 new cases to be on a par with Italy.

LeBash

LeBash wrote: »

Is it not that sun light activates vitamin d, as in you still need to injest it first. That's my understanding at least.

No need for ingestion.

When the sunlight hits skin cells it creates Vitamin D from cholesterol.

SouthWesterly

Was talking to Indian fiends who are nurses. The numbers are minute who are dying as mentioned above. From our point of view its carnage due to the huge numbers but percentage wise, very few are dying.

Cluedo Monopoly

McGiver wrote: »

Few comments from me. Family in India, been there many times, know the situation, landscape, culture, politics etc.

The situation is bad...

Official number is 200k deaths. Absolutely not. Anyone who knows/studies India knows that it's an order of magnitude off. Poor governance, politics, poverty, culture all contribute to underreporting.

Academic estimates are 5 fold higher, but in India you never know, could be more.

So basically 1 million deaths is a decent estimate. That is indeed a catastrophe, but what is worse is that we're now in the first part of the hyperbolic curve with this wave, the spread will accelerate with the massive population density, vaccination is way too slow due to complexity, decentralisation, poor governance and sheer population, will take years to get to a herd immunity % of vaccinated. Sadly, I think it will get much worse.

BJP and Modi are in a campaign mode and playing politics to score points - systematic underreporting in BJP held states/areas to show "good results", BJP election rallies going on etc. Absolutely disgraceful. Modi should be jailed for crime against humanity and genocide.

How bad it can get? The 1943 Bengali famine, 3 million people died in a span of a year, largely thanks to the politics too (UK colonial administration).

Indian people can be very childlike/naive and believe anything they hear from their elders/hierarchy/caste/leaders/gurus etc.

The authorities have handled Covid so so badly but another key mistake they made recently was to portray the vaccine as a cure rather than a prevention of severe illness. I think they did it to simplify the message and encourage vaccine take up. However many Indians formed the impression that if they got sick, they could pop into the hospital and get the vaccine 'cure'. The leaders kept saying they had loads of vaccine supplies and even started sending vaccines to other countries as part of vaccine diplomacy. As I said, childlike.

I remember at the start of Covid, some Indian MP told his supporters that you could cure or prevent Covid by lying in muddy puddles and blowing into a conch shell. He got covid.

Modi is an idiot and only cares about the optics and the spin. He is probably more concerned about putting another lander on the moon - one that actually works.

Cluedo Monopoly

I found that story

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8742399/Indian-politician-claimed-bathing-mud-prevented-Covid-tests-positive.html

Politician who claimed bathing in mud and blowing a conch shell gave you immunity to coronavirus tests positive for Covid-19 in India

PhoneMain

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Alas it's the same with a lot of medications, it's always worth consulting a medical professional, from your link "these medicines should be taken in the hospital settings, under a trained physician. "

I'm a medical professional. The evidence behind the therapeutics you discuss is weak at best.

drunkmonkey

PhoneMain wrote: »

I'm a medical professional. The evidence behind the therapeutics you discuss is weak at best.

What's the recommendation for reducing early symptoms here? I've heard people being told to take paracetamol while doctors in the UK can prescribe Budesonide. I'm not seeing anywhere say these treatments are weak and shouldn't be used besides the WHO and CDC.

wes

Well this is ****ed up:
The leader of one of the world's biggest vaccine manufacturers said he fled India because of menacing threats


This could get very bad if other people who work at the institute also receive death threats.

drunkmonkey

wes wrote: »

Well this is ****ed up:
The leader of one of the world's biggest vaccine manufacturers said he fled India because of menacing threats


This could get very bad if other people who work at the institute also receive death threats.

He backtracked and said he'll now be back in a few days. You can understand peoples frustration, they're shipping out the vaccine to healthy people in other counties while the at risk can't get it in their own county. I'm sure we'd be the same if the tables were turned.
Just on the death threats why was Stephen Donnelly getting them and needed Gardai protection at his home?

wes

drunkmonkey wrote: »

He backtracked and said he'll now be back in a few days. You can understand peoples frustration, they're shipping out the vaccine to healthy people in other counties while the at risk can't get it in their own county. I'm sure we'd be the same if the tables were turned.

The thing is that he is not at fault for that, and I think the India's stopped shipping vaccines out of the country already.

PhoneMain

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What's the recommendation for reducing early symptoms here? I've heard people being told to take paracetamol while doctors in the UK can prescribe Budesonide. I'm not seeing anywhere say these treatments are weak and shouldn't be used besides the WHO and CDC.

You havent looked that hard so.

Besides the WHO and CDC? Ok, starting at home - The HSE, HIQA, ICGP, RCPI, NAtional Centre for Pharmacoeconomics.
Further afield - National Institure of Clinical Excellence (NICE), SIGN Guidelines, European Medicines Agency. The Infectious Disease Society of America, the American Thoracic Society, the European Respiratory Society etc etc etc etc

Anyway, this is off topic. So to bring it slightly back, you shared a link suggesting it was in use in India. You obviously didnt look at the treatment algorithm you shared as it specifically puts Ivermectin etc under the weak evidence for category.

wes

Looks like the Indian government is up to its old tricks claiming Pakistan violated the ceasefire along the LOC in Kashmir. Its interesting that this only ever seems to happen, when Modi is in trouble, very very interesting.

So now that Modi has taken an electoral hit due to his murdering 100s of 1000s of Indians due to his mismanagement of the covid crisis, he now risks a war with Pakistan, which neither side can afford right now.

Honestly, the International community needs to sanction Modi, the RSS/BJP immediately, lest the mad men starts a devastating war in South Asia.

Cluedo Monopoly

wes wrote: »

Looks like the Indian government is up to its old tricks claiming Pakistan violated the ceasefire along the LOC in Kashmir. Its interesting that this only ever seems to happen, when Modi is in trouble, very very interesting.

So now that Modi has taken an electoral hit due to his murdering 100s of 1000s of Indians due to his mismanagement of the covid crisis, he now risks a war with Pakistan, which neither side can afford right now.

Honestly, the International community needs to sanction Modi, the RSS/BJP immediately, lest the mad men starts a devastating war in South Asia.

Aragh they are always squabbling over Kashmir. There wont be a war. But Modi could be looking for a distracting alright. I doubt it will get much public attention given what's happening. India is a basket case at the best of times but Covid has really exposed it. Journalists that expose the incompetence will be targeted.
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ginoginelli

I wonder if we will ever get any idea of infection numbers there.

Anecdotally we are hearing reports of everybody knowing at least 1 person that's been affected.

There has been countries in Europe and worldwide that have registered 1 in 10 of every citizens been infected.

Similar figures in India would mean around 130 million cases. It could well be even worse than that.

Stheno

ginoginelli wrote: »

I wonder if we will ever get any idea of infection numbers there.

Anecdotally we are hearing reports of everybody knowing at least 1 person that's been affected.

There has been countries in Europe and worldwide that have registered 1 in 10 of every citizens been infected.

Similar figures in India would mean around 130 million cases. It could well be even worse than that.

I work with about 50 people in India

At least ten of them have been diagnosed with a positive test

McGiver

rahmalec wrote:

Hungary will soon pass 3000 deaths per million. That would equate to 4.2 million if that happened in India. Even if the numbers in India are way off, doesn’t seem to be close to that.

No, they are not. The worst in the world per capita is Czechia, 2600+ per million.

India would have 3M dead or so with that figure.

Current figures are 200 per million for India, but only a mad man would consider them accurate. Academic estimates are 5 times worse which would mean 1000 per million.

Now, certain locally reported deaths vs scale of cremations going, are estimating 30x higher death rate. I'd say 1m dead currently (1000 per 1m) is conservative and could be much worse in reality.

McGiver

wes wrote:

Looks like the Indian government is up to its old tricks

Yep and they're blocking Twitter, Facebook and Instagram posts critical of Modi, the BJP and central government.

Good old fascist tricks. Silence the critics, pretend everything is fine, and go to war to distract.

SimonTemplar

I have colleagues in India who said that some pharmacies in small towns and villages have been provided with vaccine doses but won't administer them unless they are given a bribe. That means the poor are unable to get their vaccines.

Jim_Hodge

McGiver wrote: »

No, they are not. The worst in the world per capita is Czechia, 2600+ per million.

India would have 3M dead or so with that figure.

Current figures are 200 per million for India, but only a mad man would consider them accurate. Academic estimates are 5 times worse which would mean 1000 per million.

Now, certain locally reported deaths vs scale of cremations going, are estimating 30x higher death rate. I'd say 1m dead currently (1000 per 1m) is conservative and could be much worse in reality.

Hungary 2895 per M
Chechia 2738 per M

Equivalent for India = 4.03 million deaths.

McGiver

Jim_Hodge wrote:

Hungary 2895 per M Chechia 2738 per M

OK, Hungary has overtaken Czechia in last week. Interesting given 30%+ is vaccinated .

McGiver

SimonTemplar wrote:

I have colleagues in India who said that some pharmacies in small towns and villages have been provided with vaccine doses but won't administer them unless they are given a bribe. That means the poor are unable to get their vaccines.

Nothing new... Wouldn't be surprised at all.

Also - fake vaccines will appear, as did fake remdesivir etc.

Stheno

McGiver wrote: »

OK, Hungary has overtaken Czechia in last week. Interesting given 30%+ is vaccinated .

Sputnik

wes

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Aragh they are always squabbling over Kashmir. There wont be a war. But Modi could be looking for a distracting alright. I doubt it will get much public attention given what's happening. India is a basket case at the best of times but Covid has really exposed it. Journalists that expose the incompetence will be targeted.
.

I don't think Modi wants war, but its one of those things that could easily snow ball into war. The fact he keeps doing this is madness. He is like a child playing with matches, sooner or later he will start a fire.

wes

Looks like the aid as predicted, isn't getting where it needs to go:
Where are the 300 tonnes of emergency Covid-19 supplies that have landed in Delhi in last five days?


No doubt a lot of it is being stolen. Eventually, area's that voted BJP will probably receive aid, but even if I am wrong, and it just a case of incompetence, this is truly breath taking.

How can the world help a country, where the leaders are either thieves or complete idiots?

McGiver

Stheno wrote:

Sputnik

AFAIK the % was low?

DaSilva

Stheno wrote: »

Sputnik

Absolute garbage nonsense. Show some or any proof for your crazy claim.
You're basically an anti-vaxxer with these baseless claims.

Hungary's case numbers are falling, as are deaths, but as many of you know deaths lag infection by approximately a month. And one month ago, less than 10% of Hungary was fully vaccinated.

SouthWesterly

McGiver wrote: »

No, they are not. The worst in the world per capita is Czechia, 2600+ per million.

India would have 3M dead or so with that figure.

Current figures are 200 per million for India, but only a mad man would consider them accurate. Academic estimates are 5 times worse which would mean 1000 per million.

Now, certain locally reported deaths vs scale of cremations going, are estimating 30x higher death rate. I'd say 1m dead currently (1000 per 1m) is conservative and could be much worse in reality.

A friend in India has reported that about half a million are dying per day.
Biggest issue is under reporting as death my heart attack etc.

His brother and family have Covid as has another friend. Brother was recovering and got worse again overnight. He has a hospital bed with oxygen.

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

Sputnik

No reason to assume there’s any problem there. Deaths will lag vaccinations in terms of reporting. U.K. deaths have just fallen off recently.

Also most of the vaccinations in Hungary aren’t Sputnik.