Covid 19 in India

McGiver

positron wrote:

Preliminary test results are that the existing vaccines (both mRNA and the viral vector vaccines) seems to be effective against B.1.617 - I am sure more details will be available in weeks to come.

Yes, efficacious in terms of preventing serious disease and death. That should be 100% and so far no variant has escaped the vaccine.

But we may expect some reduced efficacy in terms of preventing symptomatic disease in case of the "Bengali" (B.1.618) and "Indian" mutants (B.1.617).

positron

DaSilva wrote: »

No, I specifically don't agree with doing it in certain cases, I agree with doing it in all cases or none.

Countries like China, NZ & Australia who shut their borders to everyone and then used long heavy lockdowns to drive local spread to 0 make sense.

Closing borders to specific countries is a pointless exercise that has been demonstrated over and over. I don't know if you remember but the USA shut its borders to China early in the pandemic, yet that didn't stop the virus getting in there. If the Indian variant is truly a fitter virus then its going to find its way into other countries which will eventually find its way here regardless of our border closures with India.

To me the idea of shutting borders to specific countries in a country like ours, with an ongoing epidemic and with restrictions being lifted is purely security theatre, and I am not a fan of that type of art.

Fair point. With open border to NI and no much collaboration with UK (that I know of, could be wrong) there's no way to do a proper border closure in Ireland. Also we all saw what happened around Christmas with London lockdown.

wes

positron wrote: »

I don't know enough about what is the criteria for calling a country 'developing' or 'developed', I assume it's relative and probably not set in stone. Looks like India is on IMF's list of developing countries and Pakistan too for that matter (I don't see 'Azad Kashmir' there funny enough, must be a developed nation).

Azad Kashmir is not a country, so wouldn't appear on any list. It is disputed between India and Pakistan. Surely, you would know that.......

Also, I would disagree with that list via a vi India. India acts like a "super power" and claims to be one, so I see nothing with taking its leaders at their word .

Joking aside, it doesn't really matter what label you want to use. India has chosen to spend next to nothing on health care (many in India argue the real figure is probably far worse than official figures). The fact remains that what money they do have has been squandered elsewhere, and as such blowing money on fighter jets and a new parliament building, is even stupider.

biko

Other countries are trying to help by sending ventilators etc but it won't be enough.
Ireland are sending 365 and UK over a 1000 but it's a drop in the ocean... Better something than nothing of course.

biko

Possibly Ivermectin can help them.

Doctor Believes Ivermectin Drug Can Help India Stop Covid-19 Second Wave

We’ve seen experts recommend Hydroxychloroquine during the early days of the pandemic, followed by Remdesivir that helped in reducing the multiplication of COVID-19 in the patient’s body in extreme cases.

Another drug that was commonly used in Australia for the treatment of COVID-19 was Ivermectin. This drug is now being commonly used in various states in India. And Dr Surya Kant Tripathi, Head, Respiratory Medicine Department at King George Medical University in Lucknow believes this drug could help take control over the novel coronavirus.

https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/science-and-future/ivermectin-drug-india-covid-19-538226.html

bodhrandude

biko wrote: »

Other countries are trying to help by sending ventilators etc but it won't be enough.
Ireland are sending 365 and UK over a 1000 but it's a drop in the ocean... Better something than nothing of course.

Best way to look at that is that at least 1,365 lives will have a better chance for survival and like you say better than nothing, even though with the size of India t'would be a needle in a haystack.

SouthWesterly

McGiver wrote: »

Sorry to hear that...

Don't know where and how they got the figure. But some estimates are 30x wrose then reported. I think they officially report around 3k per day, so I think 500k per day is way off. My wild guess would be 30k per day. No way, it's 3k per day. EVER.



The underreporting has so many factors, it's not a single factor:
- systematic underreporting for political reasons - outright manipulation
- lack of control with reporting - errors, lack of attention, no control mechanism etc
- poverty - people dying somewhere in villages and no one knows, even no death cert
- lack of proper control/governance - not every death properly recorded
- decentralization combined with the lack of governance
- corruption
- cultural reasons
etc.

When you consider the numerous villages at the end of a dirt track that aren't even on the government radar its not inconceivable.

1.3 bn people. Half a million is a drop in the ocean. Knowing my friend and his connections, I'd go with his opinion on numbers.

Graces7

bodhrandude wrote: »

Best way to look at that is that at least 1,365 lives will have a better chance for survival and like you say better than nothing, even though with the size of India t'would be a needle in a haystack.

Exactly so. After that shocking loss of nine of our faith-family the rest are safe still. Barricaded in the compound with food dropped at the gate.

The news they are sending out is appalling

Any help however small..and will support the medical folk who are working under appalling conditions

positron

Regarding the vaccine shortage in India around the world, some good news that US seems to sided themselves with temporarily relaxing the patent rules on vaccine manufacturing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57004302

Initially US, UK & EU were all together in blocking the plea from India and Brazil and others to WTO to relax these patent rules to allow firms around the world to start producing vaccines as soon as possible.

And now that the US has changed position, EU is "ready to reconsider". Why can't EU have their own opinion?! Altogether embarrassing really!!

Cordell

It's not that simple, the patent prevents others to make vaccines using similar technologies but that's only assuming that they can. The patent is just a legal hurdle, in order to be able to actually make vaccines you need the full cooperation off those that already made them because a lot of the process is also protected by trade secrets.

What I'm saying is that they are going about it the wrong way. Instead of going to government agencies with limited jurisdiction WTO should go directly to the vaccines manufactures, huge wads of cash in hand because this is how the world works, and license the vaccine properly.

wadacrack

It would seem that the tragic situation in India is only the beginning and bordering countries are going to face the same problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/nepal-facing-human-catastrophe-similar-to-india-amid-rampant-covid-surge?fbclid=IwAR2C2A6eEgxvxUCTd9zxWTYFRjdlWbk12S2fkQrAkFmbgMx8shIuqShoAkc

gozunda

wadacrack wrote: »

It would seem that the tragic situation in India is only the beginning and bordering countries are going to face the same problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/nepal-facing-human-catastrophe-similar-to-india-amid-rampant-covid-surge?fbclid=IwAR2C2A6eEgxvxUCTd9zxWTYFRjdlWbk12S2fkQrAkFmbgMx8shIuqShoAkc

Nepal of Tuesday shut down all international travel in an attempt to control the infection rate there

Current estimates is that the positivity rate in Nepal is running at over 40%. Nepal also has fewer doctors per head of population than India.

Of note climbing season on Everest and other mountain peaks has started with cases already been evacuated out

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/covid-threatens-everest-climbing-comeback-plans

https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/international/nepal-halts-all-domestic-international-flights-in-effort-to-curb-covid-19-spike-981828.html

igCorcaigh

We were wondering last year, why some less economically developed parts of the world had been spared the surge of virus that hit Europe and the US.
It would be an awful thing to see those nations now fare badly.

MadYaker

Bangladesh is even more densely populated and just as poor I can't seem them faring much better with this variant.

SouthWesterly

igCorcaigh wrote: »

We were wondering last year, why some less economically developed parts of the world had been spared the surge of virus that hit Europe and the US.
It would be an awful thing to see those nations now fare badly.

The double mutation is causing the surge in India

wes

India is hiding its Covid crisis – and the whole world will suffer for it


Very interesting article, especially as it shows that Modi has hidden malaria deaths in the past, and him doing it with Covid 19 is him acting true to form.

IMO, the Indian government is a danger to the world, and our ability to beat Covid 19 and action needs to be taken against him and his regime, as well Bolsonaro and any other leaders who try to pull this crap.

Cluedo Monopoly

That's the problem when you have exponential numbers like they experienced in India during April - it leads to more and more mutations or mutants as they call them there. It's natural for viruses to mutate but there is always the risk of a more dangerous strain.

McGiver

Nutkins wrote:

One thing that's rarely mentioned is that India only spends about 1.6% of its GDP on its health service. And quite a lot of that gets wasted through corruption.

The real figure is less than 1%, about 0.4%. It's incredible...
https://science.thewire.in/health/union-health-budget-nirmala-sitharaman-covid-19-pmasby-allocation-gdp-expert-analysis/

Therefore, the Union health budget still remains at about 0.34% of GDP – a slight increase from 0.31% last year (BE). To attain the goal of 2.5% of GDP as stated in the NHP, the Finance Commission estimated that the Union budget for 2021-2022 should be 0.68% of GDP. Thus, the massive gap still remains. And if a globally debilitating pandemic could not prompt the government to prioritise health spending, it is difficult to imagine what will.

positron

This gut-wrenching CNN report from Uttar Pradesh, one of the most populous and probably least developed states of India. (It's so big if it was a country by itself, it would be the fifth most populated country in the world).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrefKeWuNpQ

What is even worse is that it's yet to peak! And with a scene like that every single one of those people are now exposed to the virus and will go on to fight their own personal battles in weeks to come. And imagine scenes like this playing across thousands of towns across that state alone. The scale of suffering is truly incomprehensible.

PS: Not all of India might be this worse off though. For instance, here's the Covid control room in Kerala coordinating states fight against Covid:

https://youtu.be/KbbtYQskj0E

Chuzzle7

positron wrote: »

This gut-wrenching CNN report from Uttar Pradesh, one of the most populous and probably least developed states of India. (It's so big if it was a country by itself, it would be the fifth most populated country in the world).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrefKeWuNpQ

What is even worse is that it's yet to peak! And with a scene like that every single one of those people are now exposed to the virus and will go on to fight their own personal battles in weeks to come. And imagine scenes like this playing across thousands of towns across that state alone. The scale of suffering is truly incomprehensible.

PS: Not all of India might be this worse off though. For instance, here's the Covid control room in Kerala coordinating states fight against Covid:

https://youtu.be/KbbtYQskj0E

Harrowing footage from CNN. The only person dressed appropriately was the news reporter. Moses sticking out everywhere, family members on covid wards. The country is a mess.

screamer

Have we had any update on the new B1617 strain yet as to whether it is more deadly than others? Something very wrong in India apart from the sheer population, I know there are so many factors that make India a place where Covid can thrive, but why now, what has changed, that’s what I’m wondering. Poor people, it’s as shocking as the images of the hearses in bergamo last year, unimaginable suffering.

igCorcaigh

screamer wrote: »

Have we had any update on the new B1617 strain yet as to whether it is more deadly than others? Something very wrong in India apart from the sheer population, I know there are so many factors that make India a place where Covid can thrive, but why now, what has changed, that’s what I’m wondering. Poor people, it’s as shocking as the images of the hearses in bergamo last year, unimaginable suffering.

That's what I'm wondering too.
Ok, there's this new variant of the virus.

But the original type was bad enough to cause Bergamo to suffer as it did, why now in India? Just chance? Odd.

odyssey06

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's what I'm wondering too.
Ok, there's this new variant of the virus.

But the original type was bad enough to cause Bergamo to suffer as it did, why now in India? Just chance? Odd.

Its like a lot of the population had prior immunity to the original covid strains but not the variant...
very strange.

igCorcaigh

odyssey06 wrote: »

Its like a lot of the population had prior immunity to the original covid strains but not the variant...
very strange.

Oh I really hope that's not the case! It has rapidly outcompeted the other strains though. And it has seeded other parts of the world.

Strange though, yes.

ginoginelli

There is some early data out that's its outcompeting the b17 strain in the uk too which is worrying.

On the plus side it doesnt have the vaccine escape change that the S Africa and Brazilian strain have and the phizer vax looks to be able to still offer protection.

Mackwiss

odyssey06 wrote: »

Its like a lot of the population had prior immunity to the original covid strains but not the variant...
very strange.

The first wave was "well" managed by the government with the mandatory curfews etc. Massive health programs but still they where on the top five with infections and deaths. If you google for news reports about covid and India in 2020 you can find a few articles explaining how they managed it.

The problem is that it wasn't eradicated and the more infections happen the more possibility for the virus to mutate. Add to this it being a tropical country with a high population density, and poverty and the odds of the mutations happening are very high.

Add to this having someone like Modi in power which is just another wannabe dictator like Bolsonaro or Trump with no care for the population and you have what is happening. Declaring the pandemic was over, holding huge political rallies means more opportunities to spread the virus, the more it infects the more possibilities it will mutate into a more spreadable and deadly variant. This is evolution 101.

Then there's the third problem that is vaccine distribution. The reason why vaccine patents should have never been used for the covid vaccine is precisely because it has led to the richest countries to buy en mass vaccines leading to the inequality of vaccination numbers we see in the world at the moment. This is explained in detail by John Oliver's episode this week

This has been mentioned in WHO conferences for months now, and this inequality can lead to more and more mutations which can even lead, in theory to mRNA vaccines becoming ineffective.

A perfect example of this is Chile which has vaccinated almost half its population with the first dose and it's still being majorly affected by the Brazilian variant that is slightly resistant to mRNA vaccines.

Keep in mind the Indian variant is already present in the UK, and in NI there are a few clusters. So imagine the variant facing a partially vaccinated population with the spread being uncontrolled, and it's only a matter of time until another variant evolves that is more resistant to the vaccines...

And I hope 100% I am wrong about this last paragraph...

salonfire

Mackwiss wrote: »

The reason why vaccine patents should have never been used for the covid vaccine

So in the case of the next pandemic why would pharmaceutical companies bother their hole trying to find a vaccine?

There was nothing stopping anybody putting in the graft to find a vaccine and give it away for nothing if that's what they want to do.

positron

salonfire wrote: »

So in the case of the next pandemic why would pharmaceutical companies bother their hole trying to find a vaccine?

There was nothing stopping anybody putting in the graft to find a vaccine and give it away for nothing if that's what they want to do.

And to flip the argument on its head, if China doesn't think there is even going to be support or a concerted effort to fight this virus, would they have shared the samples for others countries to study and develop vaccines?

World is a better place when we all work together, and of course, foot the bill together, rather than letting handful of CEOs to make the decisions for the rest of us while pleasing their shareholders.

wes

McGiver wrote: »

The real figure is less than 1%, about 0.4%. It's incredible...
https://science.thewire.in/health/union-health-budget-nirmala-sitharaman-covid-19-pmasby-allocation-gdp-expert-analysis/

The only thing Modi cares about is establishing a Hindu Rashtra, and creating Akhand Bharat. Unfortunately a plurality of the Indian electorate agree with him, and they could care less if the poor die from a lack of health care.

Again, I want to point out that they are in some Indian states charging for the vaccine. Complete and utter madness.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh I really hope that's not the case! It has rapidly outcompeted the other strains though. And it has seeded other parts of the world.

Strange though, yes.

Uk variant is the most common one in India