Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Your first sentence doesn't make a jot of sense....our great leader told us the new variants (was it the UK one or the Brazialian one or was there a Kilkenny one, it's hard to keep track) were to be treated like a new virus back in February as justification for continuing the Level 5 lock down....fears that were not justified in any way, as most of here stated back in Feb/March...apart from yourself and a few others that is.

If you believe that the restrictions should happen earlier then you know the actions of the Government has been a mistake, a very costly one.

We know that outdoor transmission is rare.
We know that asymptomatic people do not transmit in any meaningful way.

What is there to understand....

Its becoming patently obvious that the same report reads/ sounds completely different based on the inherent biases of the reader/ listener

Boggles

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

charlie14

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Can’t fathom why you believe your relatives and friends are privy to data not otherwise available. If it is otherwise available maybe post here to back up your point.

Your second point is arguing against something agreed in my last post, not sure why you are determined to use it as an argument against something never posited.

It is unfathomable to me how you appear to be unable to understand that people who work in health care in those areas would not know what is going on and reasons for it. It is not exactly a new phenomenon. It has been going on for months. Even the dogs in the street could give you a good rundown.
Even the incident rates for those area should be data enough on their own, but you somehow seem to believe I should list each case and its exact geographical position to verify the incident rate which is bizarre .

My second point was you either accepted the incident rate nationwide reporting is based on electoral areas or not. Something both these areas are. But you still seem to have a problem accepting that is the the recognised and accepted manner for determining incident rates for electoral areas.

charlie14

Hellrazer wrote: »

Its not



How many of them died "FROM" covid and not "WITH" covid.




Case numbers are irrelevant and in my opinion always have been.So we should open up and ignore the case numbers.
Ive posted before about case numbers and unless you test your entire population case numbers dont matter.

How so ?
According to you a bunch of morons spreading an infectious virus is simply them enjoying themselves and it`s nobody else`s concern. The same based on that reasoning can be applied to a bunch of morons smashing up a kiddies playground.

With and from have become rather hackney now that data on EXCESS deaths is more widely available.

"Case numbers are irrelevant always have been in my opinion"
What planet have you been living on for the past 14 months ?

Necro

dalyboy wrote: »

I’m loving the people outside on the streets wearing masks.
My kids and I play a game when driving through our village.

Simply called “nappy face”

They love it.

We each bet a number . The number is related to how many people we see wearing a mask either on the street or in other cars.

Whoever gets the closest by the time get to our front door gets €1.

Many days of fun while at the same time highlighting the absurdity and spotting followers of pseudoscience/zealotry . It’s a great educational tool.

I’ve got to say we will miss that aspect when this “deadly” virus is over.

Threadbanned

FintanMcluskey

€7,600,000,000 deficit for the exchequer for April this year according to RTE news

Actually higher than April 2020

There is no point only half destroying the country I suppose

It’s only from now on we will discover the true cost Ireland’s approach

Hellrazer

Boggles wrote: »

I imagine you have.

That was good!!! 10/10

Probably should have rephrased I havent been abiding by restrictions I could get away with!!!

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Its becoming patently obvious that the same report reads/ sounds completely different based on the inherent biases of the reader/ listener

But of course you don't have any bias....you have been consistently defending the undefendable despite also recognizing that the restrictions should have been relaxed sooner....because you understand why they did it...but you won't articulate why you understand why they did it...because you can't bring yourself to admit that the Government got it wrong....very wrong.

The new variants that kept us in level 5 for three extra months was a gross misjudgment...no one can defend those actions unless you've been completely overwhelmed by the cascade of hysteria.

There will be more hysteria come the winter season, as sure as night follows day!

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

€7,800,000,000 deficit for the exchequer for April this year according to RTE news

Actually higher than April 2020

There is no point only half destroying the country I suppose

It’s only from now on we will discover the true cost Ireland’s approach

You should have read the whole article Fintan.

It's littered with good news.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0505/1213985-exchequer-returns-show-deficit-hit-7-6bn-last-month/

The Exchequer recorded a deficit of €7.6bn in April, up from €7.5bn at the same time last year.

The deterioration is down to increases in current expenditure.

Despite this, tax receipts in the month were 8% higher than expected, driven mainly by higher levels of income tax

Cumulative tax receipts at the end of April were €16.1bn. This was €227m, or 1.4%, higher than expectations and €652m, or 4.2%, higher than the same period last year

Cumulative VAT to the end of April was €4.7bn, up €459m or 10.9% ahead of the same period last year.

Excise duty was 10.1% or €44m ahead of target in April. It is up €176m or 56.9% on April 2020

The problem as I see it is that the economy doesn't overheat for Q3 and Q4.

Boggles

Hellrazer wrote: »

That was good!!! 10/10

Probably should have rephrased I havent been abiding by restrictions I could get away with!!!

Such as?

Necro

Gael23 wrote: »

No indoor gatherings any time soon it seems

Where are you getting this from? Vaccinated people will be able to meet up with other vaccinated households? That's the whole point of the vaccine bonus, these indoor visits are starting from next Monday.

So most people that want to meet up indoors will be able to do so from the end of July or August at the latest.

Boggles

Necro wrote: »

Where are you getting this from? Vaccinated people will be able to meet up with other vaccinated households? That's the whole point of the vaccine bonus, these indoor visits are starting from next Monday.

That started last month AFAIK.

The changes on the 10th mean vaccinated can meet un-vaccinated indoors.

Designed to allow Grandparents and Parents meet small ones.

There will be a vaccine bonus for the fully vaccinated, who can meet indoors without masks or social distancing with up to three other fully vaccinated households, or with low-risk unvaccinated people from a single household

FintanMcluskey

Boggles wrote: »

You should have read the whole article Fintan.

It's littered with good news.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0505/1213985-exchequer-returns-show-deficit-hit-7-6bn-last-month/







The problem as I see it is that the economy doesn't overheat for Q3 and Q4.

Edited now €7.6 billion deficit

You’ve proved my point

We are now so desensitised to a deficit of 7 thousand million €‘s you think it’s a positive that tax receipts are fractionally higher than the projected slump

The payback involved on the level of debt Ireland has is going to cripple the nation.

Our health infrastructure is not adequate for our population, but that infrastructure will only decline with the impending austerity measures.

Why Ireland did not follow Europe’s path and protect its economy and health service is a mystery.

Necro

Sure all the nations are going to be crippled Fintan tbf, it's not just us paying for the cost of lockdown. I don't think it's going to be as serious as some are projecting.

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The payback involved on the level of debt Ireland has is going to cripple the nation.

Nope, not how it works Fintan.

For example, in 2013 interest payments on the national debt amounted to €7.8 billion. That was equal to 12.5% of government revenue. Last year, that had fallen to €3.9 billion or 4.6% of government revenue. This year the interest bill is forecast to fall further to €3.6 billion or 4% of revenue

Hellrazer

Boggles wrote: »

Such as?

Travelling more than my 5k, having friends over for drinks, the odd party (daughters 21st) here and there, family over for christmas etc!!

Normal enough stuff!!!

FintanMcluskey

Necro wrote: »

Sure all the nations are going to be crippled Fintan tbf, it's not just us paying for the cost of lockdown. I don't think it's going to be as serious as some are projecting.

Ireland added the highest levels of Covid debt in Europe in 2020, almost double the average Covid debt levels(I’ll try find the source for that)

We’ve since continued continued with another 4 months of lockdown while other countries remained open

All added some debt, we added the most

Boggles

Hellrazer wrote: »

Travelling more than my 5k, having friends over for drinks, the odd party (daughters 21st) here and there, family over for christmas etc!!

Normal enough stuff!!!

I think everyone traveled further than 5k. You were allowed have family over Christmas.

So apart from the odd few drinks you have been more or less following restrictions.

You haven't been taking the absolute píss.

Graham

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We are now so desensitised to a deficit of 7 thousand million €‘s you think it’s a positive that tax receipts are fractionally higher than the projected slump

The payback involved on the level of debt Ireland has is going to cripple the nation.

Our health infrastructure is not adequate for our population, but that infrastructure will only decline with the impending austerity measures.

I'm struggling with your logic Fintan.

Now the vaccination program appears to be working you think we should invest millions/billions more in the health service because you've imagined austerity measures are on the way?

timmyntc

Necro wrote: »

Sure all the nations are going to be crippled Fintan tbf, it's not just us paying for the cost of lockdown. I don't think it's going to be as serious as some are projecting.

We're all in this together - except that Ireland has borrowed the most per capita.

For a nation of our small size we borrowed an enormous amount of money over the past year - our outstanding debt now is eyewatering.

The good thing is that most of those debts & bonds dont mature until 2030 or beyond, at which point they will be refinanced. But if interest rates go up a lot by that time (which they likely will - ~0% now, only one way to go and that is up!) - the costs incurred after we refinance all this debt will be yuge.

Big interest payments every year from 2030 or so onwards. But the short term recovery might well be OK

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ireland added the highest levels of Covid debt in Europe in 2020, almost double the average Covid debt levels(I’ll try find the source for that)

We’ve since continued continued with another 4 months of lockdown while other countries remained open

All added some debt, we added the most

And as the RTE article you referenced states, all revenue is up, we are reopening, 100,000s going back to work.

Record amounts of cash all over the country with zero interest rates, pent up demand to spend - that's only going one way.

Like I said Q3 and Q4 will be hot, very hot.

The doom mongering does not in anyway reflect reality.

SortingYouOut

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

€7,600,000,000 deficit for the exchequer for April this year according to RTE news

Actually higher than April 2020

There is no point only half destroying the country I suppose

It’s only from now on we will discover the true cost Ireland’s approach

Deficits aren't a bad thing and shouldn't be considered a bad thing, why do people still think balancing the books in an economy should be the goal. Economists across the globe have changed their thinking on this and actually encourage deficits.

Boggles

timmyntc wrote: »

For a nation of our small size we borrowed an enormous amount of money over the past year - our outstanding debt now is eyewatering.

The absolute vast majority of that having fúck all to do with Covid.

FintanMcluskey

The theory here is keep spending money you don’t have as budget deficit’s are a positive

Interesting

timmyntc

Boggles wrote: »

The absolute vast majority of that having fúck all to do with Covid.

And? If anything that just validates my point that we could not afford to borrow so much given our existing debt stock - nevermind borrow the most in Europe relative to our size. Also by end of 2021 projections are that we will have added ~20% to our debt prior to 2019.

Irish debt to GDP was in decline from 2013 onwards, now its taken a big jump up and is projected to keep going that way for a year or 2.

SortingYouOut

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The theory here is keep spending money you don’t have as budget deficit’s are a positive

Interesting

Yes, it's actually an economic tool during recession and has been implemented in the US under Stephanie Kelton's advice and she knows far more about this than we do. Austerity doesn't work, we need to spend spend spend to stimulate the economy which in turn will see economic activity increase instead of decrease, thus bringing in more revenue and an ability to pay back debt, which is the cheapest it's been ever so it's definitely the right thing to be doing. We didn't borrow enough of this negative interest rate money in fact, we could have taken way more advantage.

You should give her book a read, it's very enlightening and will change your perspective on global finances and might move you away from the idea of running a country's finances like a household.

Her books called The Deficit Myth and she did a podcast with David McWilliams who sheds some great light on it as well in a recent episode.

growleaves

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Deficits aren't a bad thing and shouldn't be considered a bad thing, why do people still think balancing the books in an economy should be the goal. Economists across the globe have changed their thinking on this and actually encourage deficits.

Completely untrue and, as I said earlier today, the financial press do not even try to pretend there is a 'consensus' around QE since no one would believe it and besides many of their readers have formal training in economics.

Economics is not a micro-specialism/mystery cult. Anyone who has followed the actions of the Bank of Japan over the last few decades understands the pitfalls of the QE policy. It constricts money velocity by tying it up in debt servicing, for one thing - acting as a deflationary millstone around economic activity.

Also to use the word 'doom mongering' in this context is crazy. This dynamic has already been in play since 2009. The covid debt is just a continuation and intensification of this. It isn't a new problem but who seriously denies it will get worse? It is a mathematical certainty.

Asset inflation has priced Irish people out of housing and may price them out of education yet. Only 16% of Irish people aged 24-39 will be able to afford a residence. This is happening right now.

It can only end in some kind of debt jubilee, preferably unconditional.

timmyntc

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Deficits aren't a bad thing and shouldn't be considered a bad thing, why do people still think balancing the books in an economy should be the goal. Economists across the globe have changed their thinking on this and actually encourage deficits.

Deficits are fine provided you have the ability to service the debts you are taking on. Countries dont repay debts, they just continually refinance them and as govt revenues/GDP increases the debt interest payments decrease in relative terms.
Which is all well and good provided you can afford to service the debts - we can right now due to record low interest rates, but when these debts mature they need refinanced and it will be at higher rates. So our debt servicing costs will go up significantly.

FintanMcluskey

Graham wrote: »

I'm struggling with your logic Fintan.

Now the vaccination program appears to be working you think we should invest millions/billions more in the health service because you've imagined austerity measures are on the way?

Do you realise Covid is not the only health issue in Ireland?

We can’t close the hospitals when the last person is vaccinated despite your myopic concerns

FintanMcluskey

growleaves wrote: »

Asset inflation has priced Irish people out of housing and may price them out of education yet. Only 16% of Irish people aged 24-39 will be able to afford a residence. This is happening right now.

It can only end in some kind of debt jubilee, preferably unconditional.

Precisely

Those people have been ****ed over to protect a group of older citizens who are totally insulated from the effects of debt added due to lockdown.

And don’t dare those people speak out to voice concern

Ireland has made its choice, my advice to anyone who still has flexibility is not to base your future here