Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

jammiedodgers

The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

The optimistic scenario seems a lot closer to reality. As usual all the headlines went with the worst case projections.

namloc1980

Necro wrote: »

But... like...

It will be much much closer to 80% when they're predicting these deaths for, and probably over 50% fully vaxxed

I honestly think they've gone off the deep end with this, it's absolutely batsh1t mental

Their outright assault on indoor hospitality is ideological at this point. It has to be. There's no scientific justification here.

stephenjmcd

Long night for everyone so

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409638866638704641?s=19

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

Bar the Irish Times article in March forecasting that that " Ireland to have highest debt per head in Europe this year"

I can find no recent confirmation of that claim

Do you have a link showing that "We have the highest debt per capita"?

https://assets.gov.ie/121034/b1597369-c72e-46f7-967b-74113ed45b00.pdf

Not sure why I’m bothering I’m sure there’s a way to qualify it so it’s totally acceptable, foreseeable and in reality not something to be concerned about.

But the fact is we are the most indebted per capita in 2020. Under ‘debt burdens per capita’ as ‘bottom performer’.

Degag

Thinking optimistically....

Government will have to be aware that if they pull the plug on 5th July, the outrage will probably be the worst yet and will likely lose alot of what support they have left.

They might not go with the nuclear option because of this.

dominatinMC

This is fcuking ridiculous. These numbers are based on a worst-case scenario model. How in the name of god did it get to this? Why is a worst-case scenario even being considered? Have we become that frightened and cautious. Jesus, how about we look at the best-case instead for once.

Utterly reprehensible if the hospitality industry, and society at large, is to be sacrificed on the whim of a worst-case model. I'm actually in disbelief as I type that.

stephenjmcd

jammiedodgers wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

The optimistic scenario seems a lot closer to reality. As usual all the headlines went with the worst case projections.

Even that's a little over the top.

The hospital worst case is also just simply unbelievable

"The Irish Times understands the modelling estimates almost 13,000 hospital admissions over the three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU) should the most pessimistic scenario play out"

_Kaiser_

[Deleted User] wrote: »

2,100 deaths is almost 50% of the current death toll amassed over the past year and 3 months.

At the height of summer. With 60+ of the population with 1 vaccination, and almost all the most vulnerable groups double vaccinated.

If Michael Martin goes ahead with this, then he must be the stupidest politician ever elected to high office.

It could actually bring down the Government. Micheal isn't exactly popular in his own party. His colleagues will be getting flooded with angry calls and emails over this. It's probably already started.

Leo and FG won't be helping him out either. Leo is all about Leo and he'll see what way the wind is blowing tonight - as someone said, even on this thread everyone agrees it's a crazy statement from NPHET.

As for Eamon Ryan and his lot.. Who cares really! Like last time they were in, their only role is to prop up an increasingly unpopular Government and tax everything they can under the guise of "de environment"

ACitizenErased

It's quite clear NPHET are running the show now. That Lehane tweet translates to 'the government are begging for an alternative'.

KrustyUCC

The government will pull the plug

It just depends on how long they will pull the plug for

NPHET modelling is beyond crazy yet t will be used to delay the reopening even longer

namloc1980

jammiedodgers wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

The optimistic scenario seems a lot closer to reality. As usual all the headlines went with the worst case projections.

We know which scenario will win out here unless one of Leo, Ryan or Martin have the balls to stand up and call a halt to this. Unlikely that they have.

RobitTV

Where are the legal challenges?

It's time for the hospitality industry to get together and prepare for serious legal action. This is now serious for them.

This is a make or break moment.

Lucas Hood

How do Nphet justify their advise, how are all the other experts wrong and allowing indoor dining within the eu ?

landofthetree

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's quite clear NPHET are running the show now. That Lehane tweet translates to 'the government are begging for an alternative'.

Disband Nphet.

Outsource the job to people outside of ISAG and Nphet.

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The government will pull the plug

It just depends on how long they will pull the plug for

NPHET modelling is beyond crazy yet t will be used to delay the reopening even longer

Beyond crazy is one phrase for it

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409640551067000832?s=19

ACitizenErased

This is an opportunity for the government to lay down the marker that they should've laid down 5 months ago.

Hego Damask

That IT article saying 2,000 deaths over the next few months ?

Are THEY ****ING SERIOUS ?????

How many deaths has there been total in Ireland ? - just under 5,000 in the last 18 months, and now they expect us to believe that with vaccination rates as they are now that 2,000 people will die in the summer ???

They are a lying fearmongering disgrace ...

Are they? Really?

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409638866638704641

RobitTV

RobitTV wrote: »

Where are the legal challenges?

It's time for the hospitality industry to get together and prepare for serious legal action. This is now serious for them.

This is a make or break moment.

I would be delighted to donate something to any fund they might need.

bennyl10

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Long night for everyone so

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409638866638704641?s=19

Absolutely insane idea
Pubs checking green certs? Not even feasible

JRant

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Long night for everyone so

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409638866638704641?s=19

They were waiting until after the penalty shootout before starting.

landofthetree

Lucas Hood wrote: »

How do Nphet justify their advise, how are all the other experts wrong and allowing indoor dining within the eu ?

Our health system is the worst in the EU.

A lot of the people who made such a mess of it are big players in Nphet.



Its like something from a banana republic in central America.

growleaves

JRant wrote: »

They were waiting until after the penalty shootout before starting.

Would like to see NPHET go out on penalties.

I don't know if it's deliberate - I certainly hope it's not - but all NPHET have done tonight is to shatter public confidence in the vaccination programme.

They're saying vaccinations aren't worth a damn and won't save lives.

How is this going to persuade young people - the exact cohort of society we need to persuade to immunise themselves against a disease which will barely affect them, for the wider benefit of society - to get vaccinated?

Vaccines work. They have saved lives and they will save more lives in the weeks and months to come.

NPHET is no longer fit for purpose. They should be politely thanked for their efforts (while noting that not a single member of NPHET has lost a brass cent in pay while demanding a generation of young people and small businessmen give up their livelihoods) and disbanded.

Secondly - there are massive political implications here. The Dublin Bay South by-election is going to be held on Thursday week, just three days after the Government will have reneged on their reopening date despite fewer than twenty people being seriously ill with this virus.

The likelihood is that there will be a backlash against the Government as a result. The loss of this safe seat will lead to serious questions within Fine Gael about Leo Varadkar's leadership, coming as it does after he led Fine Gael to a catastrophic general election result, losing a quarter of all their seats in the Dáil.

The Tánaiste will likely be digesting this latest demand from NPHET and their conclusion that Ireland is the only country in Europe where the Indian variant requires a continued ban on the operation of many businesses - and recalling that the three-week lockdown in December is now entering its eighth month.

I suspect the only way that there will not be a massive public backlash to this is if the Government announce a concrete, pre-August, date for the lifting of all restrictions, and that NPHET will be disbanded on that date.

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Beyond crazy is one phrase for it

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409640551067000832?s=19

yes i'd use much stronger language only I'd get banned lol

Those tweets are on point

mad how the government can't see just how ludicrous the NPHET models predictions are

_Kaiser_

landofthetree wrote: »

Disband Nphet.

Outsource the job to people outside of ISAG and Nphet.

Outsource it to people with no connection to or vested interest in this State.

As with most things here, it's the only way we might see some change/real improvements.

The HorsesMouth

NPHET are practically begging government to make their own decision with that letter.
Government wanted to hide behind NPHET all week saying "we will be led by the data and what NPHET recommend". Well Tony and the other boys and girls said well here you are..hide behind this!!

Zebra3

If this bull**** is accepted by the cowards in government, I’d say there’s a strong possibility of the vaccine rollout out collapsing.

People just won’t bother their holes getting done. And why should they? Starting to see my own shots as a compete and utter waste of time.

Aside from that, we can look forward to incredible tax rises and the likes of IW and the what’s left of the family silver being sold off if this crap is rubber stamped.

If I was 20 years younger, I’d emigrate.

For those saying NPHET have their jobs to do, that is correct. But these figures bare no relation to reality. Professionals following the science? Do me a favour. You’d roll your eyes at secondary school kids handing in a project with those figures.

dominatinMC

It would be a small bit of solace if this decision were the one which ended the polarisation and division in society over the restrictions and actually galvanised people together.

The backlash could be severe for the government. We've a nation watching more-or-less full stadia across Europe. The UK (apparently so much more worse than us) with concerts, crowds at matches, pubs, restaurants all open, Wimbledon will be full to capacity for the final next week. How long more are people here going to tolerate the patronising "hold firm" bull****. I've never written an email to my local TD but I will be firing out a few tomorrow if what we're led to believe actually transpires.

Lucas Hood

bennyl10 wrote: »

Absolutely insane idea
Pubs checking green certs? Not even feasible

Denmark have something like this and it supposedly runs well.

It's a digital app on your phone which shows whether you have had a negative test result within the last 72 hours, a certificate of vaccination or proof of a previous infection two to 12 weeks earlier.

Lot of people get tested every 3 days over there so they can go about their business pretty much as normal.