Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Leftwaffe

NPHET modelling has been wrong before. In late March they said an easing of restrictions would result in 2.5k to 9.5k cases a day and a January type situation in hospitals.

How is there no discussion about this? Their modelling was so far off it shouldn't be used dictate public health policy any further.

Vicxas

RobitTV wrote: »

Life is so easy for Paul, this 'socialist' comes from a wealthy background and attended a private school. Now he is bashing restaurant owners who have been suffering from restrictions for nearly 16 months and have earned nothing.

This is the terrible 'opposition' we have.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1409629534807375872

Times like this i wish we actually had a moderate right wing party, theres not enough competition and muppets like this can spew this vitriol without worry.

el Fenomeno

Is there any confirmation on what's going to happen to wedding attendance numbers? Remaining at 25 or going up to 50 as originally intended?

km79

On what planet do they think we actually believe they will have 2 million digital certs and a system ready by July 19th. Or that we even think it’s appropriate or constitutional......

Indoor dining delayed until July 19 while vaccine cert system is developed
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/indoor-dining-delayed-until-july-19-while-vaccine-cert-system-is-developed-40591472.html

RGS

Russman wrote: »

I'm really struggling to join up the dots on all this tbh, and get to the "why ?" of it all.

I've no real opinion on Tony either way, I think Glynn is far more personable and empathetic but that's neither here nor there. However I can't believe he's some Bond villain type character sitting back trying to bring destruction, despite some of the more irrational posts on here. I just don't buy it.
That said, the worst case modelling numbers that are being highlighted do seem absolutely off the wall bonkers and I'd love to see them explained, along with the best case and middle case numbers for comparison.

Even if NHPET was on some mad solo run, I still can't understand the "why". What do they gain from it ? It makes no sense.
Likewise, why would any elected government, who depend on votes, willingly go with it, if there wasn't a good reason ? They'd be killing themselves at the next election, especially with that other madcap party waiting in the wings. Surely between the cabinet members (of 3 different parties) and their advisors and the senior civil servants etc etc they can't all be in on it, whatever "it" is ? Why would any government want to impose restrictions for a day longer than necessary ?

So if we discount the idea that there's some nefarious plan that they're all in on, as being a bit too crackpot, we're back to the modelling. It can't be right, or can it ? Why is the worst case scenario the one being focussed on and not the middle case or best case ?
Is filling a few thousand pubs with unvaccinated 20/30 year olds really going to lead to the numbers they talk about with the new Delta ? I've no idea tbh. That story from Australia about how easily it spreads with a few seconds worth of contact is worrying but maybe its an outlier.
Is our health service that bad that it can't handle even a small spike in cases while still doing the normal stuff and that's what they're trying to protect ?

Meh, I dunno, its all a bit mad Ted.

One of the problems is the cabinet have been involved in this "fight" for over 12 months and are suffering from Battle fatigue and therefore cant think clearly or assess information in a rational manner.
Also NPHET know that Christmas scarred the cabinet and they can make any recommendation knowing the government wont oppose it.
Its clear Holohan has an agenda regarding Alcohol. I have always stated he and NPHET never wanted pubs opened last year only restaurants but took no advice from an expert on licencing laws and got caught out hence the €9 euro meal cop out.


If the modelling is correct why have NPHET not recommended the immediate closure of Hotels and re imposition of other restrictions to drive down the spread of the delta variant?


it really is a joke that on the 19thJuly I can fly to any European city and dine indoors but cant do it in my local restaurant.

GeorgeBailey

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is there any confirmation on what's going to happen to wedding attendance numbers? Remaining at 25 or going up to 50 as originally intended?

The rumours are that the numbers at weddings will still get the go ahead to go up to 50. But I won't rest easy until that's confirmed.

JeffKenna

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is there any confirmation on what's going to happen to wedding attendance numbers? Remaining at 25 or going up to 50 as originally intended?

Going up to 50 they said on morning Ireland.

niallo27

RobitTV wrote: »

Life is so easy for Paul, this 'socialist' comes from a wealthy background and attended a private school. Now he is bashing restaurant owners who have been suffering from restrictions for nearly 16 months and have earned nothing.

This is the terrible 'opposition' we have.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1409629534807375872

Reading through the replies, not one person supporting him, even the resident Tony fans here have gone missing.

RobitTV

Irish Times: There are also discussions about developing a smartphone app which could be used to show proof of being vaccinated or being diagnosed with Covid in the last nine months

Nothing about antigen testing? this is insane!

Loafing Oaf

RobitTV wrote: »

Life is so easy for Paul, this 'socialist' comes from a wealthy background and attended a private school. Now he is bashing restaurant owners who have been suffering from restrictions for nearly 16 months and have earned nothing.

This is the terrible 'opposition' we have.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1409629534807375872

Why would anyone expect the 'hard left' to be reflecting the interests of SME owners?

ACitizenErased

The modelling has me thinking NPHET is no longer fit for purpose tbh. Something rotten going on.

facehugger99

if you want evidence of just how crazy this country has gone one only needs to look at the opposition benches.

In a world that has completely overreacted to a fairly mild virus, Ireland has still managed to distinguish itself with the severity and length of it's restrictions and the opposition want even more restrictions.

Every PAYE worker who contimplates their payslips over the next few years when the bill for this is due should remember what went on here over the last 15 months.

titan18

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is there any confirmation on what's going to happen to wedding attendance numbers? Remaining at 25 or going up to 50 as originally intended?

They were saying that would still increase which makes no sense. Why is it safe to have 50 indoors at a wedding but not a restaurant?

ninebeanrows

It's almost as if the vaccinations never happened.

Elected politicians comparing a situation in mid-winter with no vaccination and seasonal factors to a situation in mid-summer with 70% of adult population having had one dose and over 40% fully inoculated.

How can we have any faith in NPHET when somebody selling antigen tests was compared to that of a snake oil salesman?

This is the same guy making these models, do we really trust him?

It's an extremely frustrating day and our politicians are toothless. The opposition in many ways worse than the government.

normanoffside

The ultimate conspiracy theorist/tin-foil hatter was almost right in everything he said was going to happen this time a year ago.

https://twitter.com/sheik22032443/status/1355688425198919681

Beechwoodspark

So apparently nphet gave a real “dooms day” Armageddon type of report to govt last night

Beechwoodspark

Some new app being discussed now

namloc1980

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Why would anyone expect the 'hard left' to be reflecting the interests of SME owners?

They don't reflect the views of those unemployed due to Covid restrictions either. Actually have no idea who or what they represent.

PhoneMain

Corholio wrote: »

In Netherlands at the moment and reading about the last 72 hours in Ireland, it comes across as bonkers. The unvaccinated only stuff will never work and is a nightmare for pubs. Went to a bar/club here on Saturday till 4am without masks and distancing, just needed a test earlier in the day, no masks needed in shops etc now either. Had meals a few times indoors too.

Hopefully a compromised decision can be made today rather than the rumoured horrific ones touted. There was a few here who agreed and argued for everything that the government/NPHET proposed, surely even some of these disagree with this?

I'm one of those who, not so much as agreed with everything NPHET proposed but went along with it as they are the experts in public health that we have. I dont subscribe to the notion that some people have here that they are doing it for the power, Public Health in normal times is generally seen as a cushy enough number so I'm sure they'd prefer to return to that. I know the less high profile public health doctors who are on the ground would prefer life to return to normal! I wouldnt have thought they're getting extra compensation for the extra work, maybe they are.
Maybe theres a degree of groupthink ongoing in NPHET at the moment. I think the letter to the minister and NPHETs minutes should be released ASAP.

But even I'm struggling with the latest modelling. They're probably in touch with public health at a European level and maybe the fear is there. It's not widely reported but the hospitals are under pressure even now, some hospitals are asking for people not to be referred to the ED. This morning there was 278 on trolleys. I'm not defending NPHET saying this, I'm just speculating that this could be influencing their thinking.
At the end of the day, it's the governments call. Its up to them to balance the public health risk versus the needs of society and the econnomy.
They cant hide behind NPHETs advice, it's up to them to make the hard decisions. They were burned aat christmas but we have a fairly successful vaccine programme now that we didnt have 6 months ago.

But I also feel that we cant just say we are going to lockdown forever, at some point we have to start living with Covid. We cannot get to a point where we start locking down for things like flu... People are going to socialise anyway, in peoples homes if they cant do it in pubs & restaurants. surely a controlled environment would be better to allow people to mix than ghaving dozens going mad in peoples homes!
We wont be able to run the country if lockdown is our go to pandemic response.

normanoffside

Leftwaffe wrote: »

NPHET modelling has been wrong before. In late March they said an easing of restrictions would result in 2.5k to 9.5k cases a day and a January type situation in hospitals.

How is there no discussion about this? Their modelling was so far off it shouldn't be used dictate public health policy any further.

Their worst case scenario for Christmas (after a 6 week lockdown was meant to give us a meaningful Christmas) had us on 500-600 cases/day by the start of January.
Instead we had over 10 times more cases than they could foresee in the worst case scenario and there would have been more but the testing system broke down..

Their modelling is completely broken, they don't take any seasonality into account at all.

RobitTV

Going by the current information, this app will not include antigen testing.

I can see a huge legal case brewing.

Beechwoodspark

Some sort of pub passport app the RTÉ guy saying

Worth a go?

Leftwaffe

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some new app being discussed now

Jesus, you just know they will make a complete balls of that. It will take an age to develop, some big shot will get a hape of money out of it and no one will end up using the fecking thing.

Imagine the guards coming into a rural pub looking for a vaccine passport. Absolutely mental.

Responder XY

What's being reported as the NPHET presentation is so outlandish, I don't understand how the cabinet doesn't feel required to reject it out of hand. There is no need for independent validation of this. Dogs on the street know that any independent review will reject the analysis.

They can't be let get away with pushing their agenda further by insulting the entire nation's intelligence. Time to open up and live with Covid.

Beechwoodspark

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Jesus, you just know they will make a complete balls of that. It will take an age to develop, some big shot will get a hape of money out of it and no one will end up using the fecking thing.

Imagine the guards coming into a rural pub looking for a vaccine passport. Absolutely mental.

Better than nothing though?

If the choice is all pubs closed and shuttered ?

RobitTV

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1409813731945725954

ACitizenErased

LVA, VFI and RAI all saying they will reject the vaccinated only plan. Surely out the window now?

francogarbanzo

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Better than nothing though?

If the choice is all pubs closed and shuttered ?

Why present a false dichotomy at all? There are more options than just keep businesses closed or institute a mandatory internal vaccine passport.

gozunda

facehugger99 wrote: »

There's a distinct lack of the usual Government clappy-seals on the thread since the leak last night - I wonder have even the slow lads in class figured out what some of us did 15 months ago?
Unfortunately in that time, individual businesses and entire sectors have been decimated. We are on course for 250billion of debt by the year end. What that means in real terms is sobering - we have crippled ourselves from being able to borrow our way out of the next recession and we have needlessly exposed ourselves to any raising of interests rates.
What have we gained for all this - **** all. With better management of hospitals and nursing homes we could have seen the same results for a tiny fraction of the costs. The Irish have exposed themselves as one of the most docile and easily controlled people on the planet.
We will all pay the price for this in the coming years - our kids will be still paying for this when they reach maturity.
Time to get our from under the beds and wake up to what's been done to the country

"Slow lads in the class" and other insults - tbf you describing anyone you disagree with using such bile and puerile language is certainly not unusual. But no matter

If you check facehugger - plenty of rational discussion- you may have missed it.

But What have we gained Facehugger? We have achieved one of the lowest overall death and case rates of our closest EU neighbours. And yes all countries have in incurred huge financial burdens to deal with the Pandemic. And yes we had mountains of debt long before Covid reared its ugly head in 2020.

The issue atm is that some have deliberately only taken the worst case scenario 'leaked' and ran off raving and screaming as if that the one and only thing is most definitely odd.

If you bother to check - the most "benign scenario" 'leaked gives figures in or about where we are at the moment and that seems to have completely flown over the heads of some

This from the IT (the figures are for 3 months - July August Sept)

The Irish Times understands the modelling estimates almost 13,000 hospital admissions over the three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU) should the most pessimistic scenario play out.

(Vs)

The most benign scenario would see just over 1,500 admissions and 195 people in ICUs.

But hey why ignore that to whipp up even more frenzy?

charlie14

bear1 wrote: »

To be fair, the poster said most, not all.
Also, does this justify delaying reopening?

The poster said most of the vulnerable are almost fully protected.
The 60 - 69 cohort are among the most vulnerable and most of them have only received one dose of AZ vaccine so most are not fully protected.
A further 2 weeks would see 600,000 more doses being administered which would result in most if not all that cohort being fully protected.

You appear to believe that is not a good reason for a delay, whereas I can see the reasoning for doing so.