Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

niallo27

Graham wrote: »

They would be in a worse position were we to open too soon, see all those business open, only for them to all be closed down again a few weeks later.

Do you not recall that exact scenario happening previously?

Like last summer, they had little or no effect on the numbers. Christmas was a **** show you know that.

Feria40

Graham wrote: »

They would be in a worse position were we to open too soon, see all those business open, only for them to all be closed down again a few weeks later.

Do you not recall that exact scenario happening previously?

To use the line.. But this time it's different!

It is though, 30% of adults (comprised of the most vulnerable in society and those that look after them) now have a vaccine inside them and that number will increase exponentially over the next few weeks.

Graham

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Previous performance is no guarantee of?

So you reckon roll the dice and hope?

hmmmm

You realise if we go full on too soon and get it wrong, we'll end up going backwards rapidly.

Extra few weeks for a more measured relaxation of restrictions sounds reasonable , an approach taken by most countries.

Graham

Feria40 wrote: »

It is though, 30% of adults (comprised of the most vulnerable in society and those that look after them) now have a vaccine inside them and that number will increase exponentially over the next few weeks.

Emphasis added.

Restrictions are being relaxed as you say 'over the next few weeks' as the vaccination program progresses.

Sobit1964

Graham wrote: »

So you reckon roll the dice and hope?

hmmmm

You realise if we go full on too soon and get it wrong, we'll end up going backwards rapidly.

Extra few weeks for a more measured relaxation of restrictions sounds reasonable , an approach taken by most countries.

A/ I didn't say that. I simply asked if past performance always guarantees future performance. Thank you for your answer.

B/ You don't know that - the situation is dramatically different to previous conditions. So I certainly don't realise anything based on faulty thinking.

C/ Can you name another country in the EU thats doing it slower with Irelands caseload? It's your point, so make it.

Penfailed

bear1 wrote: »

We closed the borders except the most obvious one which still lets people bypass certain checks.
[B[They've closed it before (mad cow I think?) So it could be done again in theory.[/B]
Obviously it's pointless now but I'm curious by the article itself and what they expect the government to do.

Foot and mouth. It wasn't closed though.

FintanMcluskey

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Who do you 'think' has been slower in Europe with our caseload?

No country is slower than Ireland, even France is reopening as quick as Ireland, although in April France did not actually impose a lockdown like Ireland has had for over 4 months, despite RTE reporting hourly on the France lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56934746.amp

https://www.gouvernement.fr/en/coronavirus-covid-19

Shops selling essential goods and services may open, as may bookshops, record stores, DIY shops, florists and garden centres, hairdressers, cobblers, chocolate shops, car sellers and estate agents. These shops must close for 7PM.

Places of worship may open. Congregations must practice social distancing (one row out of two and one seat out of three.

There are no restrictions on travel inside France

CruelSummer

Interesting how there are reports today that shops cannot fill vacancies. It’s almost as if people don’t want to work & continue to sit at home on the PUP indefinitely - which has been eagerly encourage by the State & NPHET for the past year.
I expect restaurants will also have this problem when they reopen.

Sobit1964

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No country is slower than Ireland, even France is reopening as quick as Ireland, although in April France did not actually impose a lockdown like Ireland has had for over 4 months, despite RTE reporting hourly on the France lockdown

France as I seem to recall, was the plague capital of the EU for a while, a considerable while after Ireland had lost its thrown to the continent.

They must be utterly crazy attempting to move so soon after having such a high caseload recently.

So France appears to be out.

Graham

Sobit1964 wrote: »

C/ Can you name another country in the EU thats doing it slower with Irelands caseload? It's your point, so make it.

Ohhhh nice caveat slipped in there almost unnoticed. :pac:

And why do you think. Ireland's case load is looking better than some of our EU neighbours.

Go on, have a guess.

Sobit1964

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No country is slower than Ireland, even France is reopening as quick as Ireland, although in April France did not actually impose a lockdown like Ireland has had for over 4 months, despite RTE reporting hourly on the France lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56934746.amp

https://www.gouvernement.fr/en/coronavirus-covid-19

I distinctly recall France being the plague capital of the EU considerably later than Ireland held the crown.

Ireland 1 - France 0

charlie14

Silentcorner wrote: »

You mean since the remarkable change of tone from NPHET and the Government....which caught a load of posters off guard.

For months posters here have pointed to the absurdity of the level 5 lock down 3 months on from the end of Jan, the point where we started testing healthy people once again which was clearly going to have an affect on the amount of people admitted to hospital per 1,000 cases therefore making the importance of daily case numbers much less pertinent.

What we are reopening now could have been done safely in March.

My opinion, like others, is based on nearly 60 weeks of Irish data available to us, for 12 weeks of that our Health System was under pressure, less than what it would normally experience. Outside of that 12 week period (2 six week surges)...most restrictions are a waste of time....Rapid Antigen Tests could be used effectively to allow much more activity.

I'd say the shift we saw two weeks ago was a combination of the massive cost and the increasing amount of people who were no longer buying into the fear and anxiety of the next deadly variant, which was evident in every town and city centre in the country.

Nope. I mean the 14 day data from the level of vaccination that the U.K. began opening up on which NPHET and the government, (like every other country), were watching to see if they had got right. The level of vaccination was always the plan for phased lifting of lockdown.....something that bizarrely some here didn`t appear to know.

Trump got ahead of you on that idea. Test less people and you would have less testing positive. It`s every bit as absurd for the 3 months after January as it was then.

We were nowhere near the level of vaccinations in March necessary. Others attempted opening up at those levels and it did not work. We would have been back in lockdown due to high numbers. Same as every other time we opened up based on nothing other than low numbers.

In my experience restrictions got the numbers down. Every time they were lifted the numbers went back up. Last time before Christmas due to the B.1.1.7 variant they went up rapidly. The government plan was that the numbers be kept as low as possible until the appropriate level of vaccinations was reached.
The restrictions have achieved that, and thanks to the U.K. data we know the vaccination level.

Some now are attempting to explain away what they failed to see citing large numbers of people no longer buying into the need for restrictions and money. There was no evidence of large numbers not following restrictions. If they were our numbers would have been rising similar to much of Europe at that stage.
The money makes less sense.
Are you another who believes that someone suddenly looked at the books and decided we would open up on a date that coincided by sheer coincidence with the date when our vaccination level will be similar to that of the U.K. when they opened to the same level ?

bear1

Penfailed wrote: »

Foot and mouth. It wasn't closed though.

My Memory, I'm wrong on this one.

Sobit1964

Graham wrote: »

Ohhhh nice caveat slipped in there almost unnoticed. :pac:

And why do you think. Ireland's case load is looking better than some of our EU neighbours.

Go on, have a guess.

Proximity to the UK? Getting the Kent variant before the rest of the EU?

Nothing was slipped in - its a very relevant metric. How long has Ireland been doing well vs how long has any other EU country been doing well? Based on the logic of your posts we must consider our EU partners to be manics for opening so quickly when they don't yet know that its gone away?

niallo27

charlie14 wrote: »

Nope. I mean the 14 day data from the level of vaccination that the U.K. began opening up on which NPHET and the government, (like every other country), were watching to see if they had got right. The level of vaccination was always the plan for phased lifting of lockdown.....something that bizarrely some here didn`t appear to know.

Trump got ahead of you on that idea. Test less people and you would have less testing positive. It`s every bit as absurd for the 3 months after January as it was then.

We were nowhere near the level of vaccinations in March necessary. Others attempted opening up at those levels and it did not work. We would have been back in lockdown due to high numbers. Same as every other time we opened up based on nothing other than low numbers.

In my experience restrictions got the numbers down. Every time they were lifted the numbers went back up. Last time before Christmas due to the B.1.1.7 variant they went up rapidly. The government plan was that the numbers be kept as low as possible until the appropriate level of vaccinations was reached.
The restrictions have achieved that, and thanks to the U.K. data we know the vaccination level.

Some now are attempting to explain away what they failed to see citing large numbers of people no longer buying into the need for restrictions and money. There was no evidence of large numbers not following restrictions. If they were our numbers would have been rising similar to much of Europe at that stage.
The money makes less sense.
Are you another who believes that someone suddenly looked at the books and decided we would open up on a date that coincided by sheer coincidence with the date when our vaccination level will be similar to that of the U.K. when they opened to the same level ?

We are winging it, just admit it. Nphet are hoping for the best and winging it, that's what you told me about every other country in Europe.

Graham

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Proximity to the UK? Getting the Kent variant before the rest of the EU?

You'll be delighted to hear we're only a few weeks behind the UK in terms of vaccinations and relaxation of restrictions.

niallo27

Graham wrote: »

Ohhhh nice caveat slipped in there almost unnoticed. :pac:

And why do you think. Ireland's case load is looking better than some of our EU neighbours.

Go on, have a guess.

Ok so are you saying we have been more restricted than nearly every other country and that's why our case numbers are so low.

Sobit1964

Graham wrote: »

You'll be delighted to hear we're only a few weeks behind the UK in terms of vaccinations and relaxation of restrictions.

Absolutely delighted.

I find it odd that you consider yourself to be imparting news, its been discussed over many threads and posts - are you perhaps attempting to be sarcastic while avoiding the core question?

charlie14

bear1 wrote: »

We closed the borders except the most obvious one which still lets people bypass certain checks.
They've closed it before (mad cow I think?) So it could be done again in theory.
Obviously it's pointless now but I'm curious by the article itself and what they expect the government to do.

We or the British army and all the NI security forces have never been able to close it.
You are thinking of foot and mouth, and it was not closed then either.

It`s NI and politics. He knows as well as everyone else it is impossible to do. Probably as much to do with optics with all the talk of a border poll if the Republic said they would try to seal it as anything else.
It`s not as if the people calling for it now were pushed when NI numbers were higher than here.

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

Interesting how there are reports today that shops cannot fill vacancies. It’s almost as if people don’t want to work & continue to sit at home on the PUP indefinitely - which has been eagerly encourage by the State & NPHET for the past year.
I expect restaurants will also have this problem when they reopen.

Heard a few places had to stay closed since start of post Christmas lockdown as staff wouldn’t come in. But five months later you’d think they’d want to come back. The other thing is colleges are finishing soon so imagine there must be tons of students looking for summer work as they are every year.

charlie14

niallo27 wrote: »

We are winging it, just admit it. Nphet are hoping for the best and winging it, that's what you told me about every other country in Europe.

Some countries in Europe attempted to wing it on low vaccination levels. It backfired.

Are you another that thinks it is just sheer coincidence that by 7th June we will be at the same level of vaccinations, and will be re-opening at the same stage as the U.K. did at that level ?
Something NPHET recommended as soon as the U.K. data was known

It would be one hell of a coincidence would it not ?

Sobit1964

gansi wrote: »

Heard a few places had to stay closed since start of post Christmas lockdown as staff wouldn’t come in. But five months later you’d think they’d want to come back. The other thing is colleges are finishing soon so imagine there must be tons of students looking for summer work as they are every year.

In London I hear that they are missing their normal EU staff, who seem to have went home, causing a problem for staffing. Its seriously hard to travel now without 'reasons' and I think the European project is slightly worse off for it.

I miss seeing our European brothers and sisters.

niallo27

gansi wrote: »

Heard a few places had to stay closed since start of post Christmas lockdown as staff wouldn’t come in. But five months later you’d think they’d want to come back. The other thing is colleges are finishing soon so imagine there must be tons of students looking for summer work as they are every year.

What idiot would wanna work when you can sit on your hole and do nothing for 350.

niallo27

charlie14 wrote: »

Some countries in Europe attempted to wing it on low vaccination levels. It backfired.

Are you another that thinks it is just sheer coincidence that by 7th June we will be at the same level of vaccinations, and will be re-opening at the same stage as the U.K. did at that level ?
Something NPHET recommended as soon as the U.K. data was known

It would be one hell of a coincidence would it not ?

You said that was not good enough 2 weeks ago. You posted on here it was not good enough.

niallo27

Sobit1964 wrote: »

In London I hear that they are missing their normal EU staff, who seem to have went home, causing a problem for staffing. Its seriously hard to travel now without 'reasons' and I think the European project is slightly worse off for it.

I miss seeing our European brothers and sisters.

They can go back to their home countries and pull in 1400 a month for doing **** all. Why would they not. We are a soft touch.

Sobit1964

charlie14 wrote: »

Some countries in Europe attempted to wing it on low vaccination levels. It backfired.

Are you another that thinks it is just sheer coincidence that by 7th June we will be at the same level of vaccinations, and will be re-opening at the same stage as the U.K. did at that level ?
Something NPHET recommended as soon as the U.K. data was known

It would be one hell of a coincidence would it not ?

Which ones attempted to 'wing' it? Are you suggesting that their public health experts are substantially less effective than ours?

Graham

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok so are you saying we have been more restricted than nearly every other country and that's why our case numbers are so low.

I think you're either confusing my posts or misinterpreting them for some reason.

niallo27

Graham wrote: »

I think you're either confusing my posts or misinterpreting them for some reason.

So why are our cases less than other European countries, I got from your post it was due to restrictions.

Mr.Sir

Can we go within 2 metre of a person now on Tuesday? Mask needed?

charlie14

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Which ones attempted to 'wing' it? Are you suggesting that their public health experts are substantially less effective than ours?

Nope. Never even inferred it let alone suggest it.
Nobody knew the level of vaccination needed that worked before the 14 day data on the U.K. was known.