How a United Ireland would affect Cork

Sullovan

I would class myself as a proud republican but an even prouder Cork man. With more and more talk about a United Ireland. Regardless of the potentials details regarding flag, anthem etc. I think Cork will be the worst effected region. We will immediately move back to the third city and based on the way politics work the government will have to pour huge money and time into the North. Cork could be put completely on the back burner. Would anyone have similar views? Would it affect you voting for or against?

the beer revolu

I don't think we will see a united island for at least 20 years.
Though, having said that, a few years ago I'd have said that we wouldn't see legal abortion on demand in Ireland in my lifetime!
Happy to be wrong about that one!

Cosmo Kramer

Won't happen in my lifetime or yours so you can rest easy if that's what you are worried about.

I see sheep

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Won't happen in my lifetime or yours so you can rest easy if that's what you are worried about.

It will

Chris_5339762

Back to being the third city, increased taxes and charges for everything since taking on NI would cost a staggering amount of money. Forget about any infrastructure anytime soon either.

the beer revolu

I see sheep wrote: »

It will

Compelling argument.

liamog

It could help Cork, the changes required to integrate the 6 counties are a good opportunity to roll out provincial assemblies. Stormont would cover Ulster, and Cork would of course be the seat of a Munster assembly. It would be nice to have some devolution of power to the regions.

Damien360

Northern Ireland runs a deficit of close to £10billion each year. That’s Sterling. That’s every single year of costs greater than all tax incomes close to 10billion.

How would that be paid for if there was a united ireland ? That would exclude costs of integration of services which would be considerable. So the state announcement of tax increases across the board. Need to find an extra 10billion from 5 million people. Currently a whole section of society sits on its arse and pays nothing in income tax. So that leaves the rest of us to foot the bill. The rich don’t leave their money behind to get taxed so that’s just the middle again paying.

If it was announced that reunification was happening, then I could only see every single region and service getting cuts drastically to pay for it. Cork would not be excluded from those cuts.

NI is a basket case. Until NI votes for reunification and only NI residents vote, not the loons around the border, then there is little point talking about reunification.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/analysis/scrutinising-northern-irelands-sizeable-fiscal-deficit-is-interesting-38964731.html[url][/url]

Pandiculation

It’s hard to know but I could see it being negative for Cork and Munster if the politics shifted towards being very fixated on a Northern Ireland, which is very likely if Sinn Fein became the largest party in Ireland.

You’d also have endless attempts to keep the DUP, UUP etc on side in some new Irish assembly which would replace the Dail.

There’s some possibility of regional Munster assembly, but I think you’re looking at a future where there’ll be an endless argument about Irish vs British identity. You’d likely see Irish language funding for West Cork and Kerry etc suddenly becoming subject to DUP politics and all of that.

You’re also going to see social issues we had resolved like gay marriage, abortion etc all suddenly become as live as they are in Alabama or Georgia due to the DUP and similar. So you’re looking at Irish politics potentially taking a turn back 30+ years in terms of social affairs and also sectarianism becoming an issue to be dealt with.

More fundamentally to economics, you’d see FDI incentives for NI though the IDA trying to deliver a United Ireland dividend.

You’d need a federal Ireland and Munster, Connacht and Leinster would need strong voices. Otherwise, you could easily end up with a total mess of regional imbalances, with government efforts being all about the reintegration and nothing else. It’s very easy to see a national Parliament ending up in power struggles and horse trading with Ulster unionism and that becoming the key political factor, especially if the system weren’t adapted to ensure power balancing.

I guess if you look at it totally selfishly, and without a big vision view of a United Ireland being a short or medium objective ahead of everything else, you’re definitely looking a a lot of challenges and a rebalance of politics and economics, which has consequences.

I think many people seem to just imagine NI would neatly slot in as 6 counties and suddenly just function as if it were any other six counties and we’ll all live happily ever after. That’s hardly likely to be the case. We would be absorbing one of the most politically unstable places in Western Europe and a huge identity crisis with unionism that isn’t any more resolvable than the current situation for NI nationalists. A lot has fossilised and bedded in over a century of partition. It would likely take another 50 years or more to rebuild something totally new.

It’s also not as simple as the German reunification. They didn’t have half of East Germany identifying as say ethnic Russians and marching up and down with Russian flags every summer, taking severe issue with the German language, the concept of Germany, seeing Germans as another ethnicity and rambling on about the glory days of the Soviet Union.

Just swap those terms for British and the British Empire and you’ll have a sense of what we’re facing.

The only solution that works in my view for NI is some in between status quo and gentle gentle movement towards something new, but it will take probably several generations.

Brexit bouncing NI into a UI before it’s ready, to me just seems like a recipe for chaos and problems.

Meursault

It's obvious that it won't be good news for Cork. Once the positivity of re-unification wears off, it wouldn't be good for the Republic in general either. The Germans, with all their resources, are still paying for re-unification (literally and figuratively) over 30 years later. And lets not forget that the Germans wanted to be re-united.

From a Cork point of view, we will be paying more taxes which will all flow to the former Northern Ireland. Any large infrastructural projects that Cork requires will be shelved.

From the point of view of the existing Republic, just to get buy in from the more reasonable middle class Unionists, we are talking about potentially re-joining the commonwealth, scrapping the national anthem and the tricolour, accepting objectionable events such as 12th of July, a federated country, etc.

Essentially, the Republic will have to be a bit more British and North a bit more Irish, and we will pay through the noses for a generation.

So, in short, there is nothing in it for us in Cork, or the rest of the country for that matter, if we are to look at it selfishly.

Pandiculation

I think we’re underestimating how much stuff would need to change. A lot of the symbolism and sense of identity would have to go. You’d have issues with terminology like Oireachtas, Dail, Seanad, Taoiseach, Etc etc.

Celebrating Irish nationalist events might suddenly become highly controversial. The proclamation might be deemed offensive.

We would probably have some weird interaction with the British Crown either via the commonwealth or some other structure which is extremely offensive to Irish republicanism and values around that.

It’s anything but simple issue to resolve.

Partition should never have happened, but I’m just not sure the solutions to it are very simple at all and they certainly can’t be rushed.

What I would like to see in NI is a referendum on the EU protocol. If they could grant themselves special status and accept, putting it beyond politics a bit like the GFA, then we could put Brexit to bed and get back on track to slow normalisation of all island life with NI just remaining in that very necessary Schrödinger's cat like position where it can coexist with simultaneous Irish and British identities.

It would potentially remove the issue from being a Tory plaything too. I think it’s somewhere the US might be able to lend some independent help on too. Might be a project Biden could help deliver.

I suspect what we’re going to see for the next few years is increasingly dysfunctional NI politics and that will roll on for as long as it’s being played with by what is probably the most crassly English nationalist and politically boorish government I think that has ever been seen in the history of the modern U.K.

corks finest

Sullovan wrote: »

I would class myself as a proud republican but an even prouder Cork man. With more and more talk about a United Ireland. Regardless of the potentials details regarding flag, anthem etc. I think Cork will be the worst effected region. We will immediately move back to the third city and based on the way politics work the government will have to pour huge money and time into the North. Cork could be put completely on the back burner. Would anyone have similar views? Would it affect you voting for or against?

I think by the time UI comes around it won't make much difference to Cork being 2 nd or 3 rd city ,
It's obviously not going to happen for donkeys year's and Cork will be booming again within 2-3 yrs with the docklands devolopment etc etc,6 counties will obviously have to be paid for by investment from the uk- EU and the free state government, as work wise it's a desert in parts then again so is Donegal and parts of the midlands and west, Anyway I wouldn't worry too much as most on this forum will be retired or dead by the time it's sorted.

Pandiculation

It’s kind of hard to know what’s going to become of Northern Ireland over the next few years. The timeline will primarily be driven by what happens in English politics. The Tories are effectively an English party and their only core belief seems to be delivery of the hardest of hard Brexits and a bizarre hostility to the EU, at any cost up to, and including, breaking up the U.K.

Northern Ireland seems to be stuck in a position of being more of an unwanted stepchild from an old marriage than anything truly dear to the Tories. They can talk the talk about “our precious Union” and all of that until it gets in the way of an absolute Brexit, and then it’s “the Irish question” and “those awkward Irish … “ and that’s in reference to the DUP.

So it’s quite possible the timeline for a United Ireland may be entirely beyond the control of either jurisdiction on this island. It could end up happening accidentally in the sense that we end up having to deal with the consequences of some weird falling out and huff between the components of the U.K.

It’s a very strange period of politics and I think it’s increasingly hard to read where it’s likely to go.

It’s why we probably need to be putting contingencies in place to prevent shock or chaotic situations. There NI protocol is a very important one.

thejuggler

If it were to happen I think a large portion of the Unionist community would choose to resettle in Scotland or England and would be financially encouraged and supported by the Uk government to do so. A reverse plantation of Ulster might take place. It may be the best way to forge a peaceful future.

PokeHerKing

thejuggler wrote: »

If it were to happen I think a large portion of the Unionist community would choose to resettle in Scotland or England and would be financially encouraged and supported by the Uk government to do so. A reverse plantation of Ulster might take place. It may be the best way to forge a peaceful future.

I mean if carlsberg did reunification. Its certainly what Id want the Irish governments policy to be. Bring on a UI and good riddance to anyone who doesn't want to be part of it. Placating unionist in a democratically voted UI would be a road to further ruin imo.

lawred2

Sullovan wrote: »

I would class myself as a proud republican but an even prouder Cork man. With more and more talk about a United Ireland. Regardless of the potentials details regarding flag, anthem etc. I think Cork will be the worst effected region. We will immediately move back to the third city and based on the way politics work the government will have to pour huge money and time into the North. Cork could be put completely on the back burner. Would anyone have similar views? Would it affect you voting for or against?

I'd expect the opposite. Ireland will have to realign its systems of governance. The current Dublin centric system won't survive. Cork could end up being the seat of an empowered parliament for Southern Ireland.

The One Doctor

I see sheep wrote: »

It will

Too many problems with it, especially since we will not get the option to reject it. There won't be a referendum here, it'll be up to NI. Then you'll have NHS/HSE problems, big budget deficits, Garda/PSNI integration, IRA ****e, Shinners firebombing everyone and DUP loonies shooting and raping everything in sight.

It's just not practical, even if the Shinners love to fantasise about it.

Chris_5339762

Pandiculation wrote: »

Northern Ireland seems to be stuck in a position of being more of an unwanted stepchild from an old marriage than anything truly dear to the Tories. They can talk the talk about “our precious Union” and all of that until it gets in the way of an absolute Brexit, and then it’s “the Irish question” and “those awkward Irish … “ and that’s in reference to the DUP.

The Tories couldn't give a monkeys about Northern Ireland. Most people of my age over in GB that I've talked to of course know a little bit about it, but no clue as to how nuanced it is, or how everything there is a deliberate total grey area. They have no idea how the place works or how tribal it can be.


Having been up there many times during my time in Dublin the only way that it "works" is to be a grey area. The best solution was that pre-Brexit, where it was just NI... a little bit Irish but a little bit British. Forcing it either way (Brexit or reunification) will just be a headache.

Pandiculation

thejuggler wrote: »

If it were to happen I think a large portion of the Unionist community would choose to resettle in Scotland or England and would be financially encouraged and supported by the Uk government to do so. A reverse plantation of Ulster might take place. It may be the best way to forge a peaceful future.

That’s just absolutely not going to happen. What you’re suggesting there is basically a polite form of ethnic cleansing. It wouldn’t be remotely acceptable in any rights based, progressive, democratic and modern society to pressure people to leave their home.

We have to find a way forward that allows to communities to live together it’s a complex history and one we don’t all agree upon but it simply cannot ever involve people being made unwelcome on this island for any reason.

They’re as much part of Ireland and Irish history as the rest of us are, it’s just a different aspect if Irish history with a British identity. That’s the bit they is going to be problematic to get our heads around in any future United Ireland context but, it’s something we’re going to have to do if there’s going to be a different future on this island.

That’s exactly why the GFA and the peace process is a very long term project. The notion that anyone is pushing Northern Ireland into a national identify crisis and opening very recent wounds that had barely healed is just beyond disgraceful. This was all warned about by anyone who knew anything about Northern Ireland in the run up to Brexit. The fact that those who drove this just chose to ignore those warnings will he a large part of how they’re seen in history, quite lightly sharing a page with Trump and the GOP and this era of populist madness.

We can’t undo hundreds of years of history. It’s complex. It’s messy and I doesn’t necessarily conform to the world view or identity we grew up with, but it’s Ireland. That’s what we all need to somehow figure out how to make work and it’s what the GFA managed to point the way towards.

mikeecho

Head up north in July, somewhere nice.. maybe Larne. And don't forget to wear your local GAA jersey.

If you make it back.. let me know what you think the chances of a peaceful United Ireland are.

It's a different world up there, I'm a regular visitor.

Meursault

The idea of "re-settling" Unionists in Scotland is so far removed from reality that its laughable. The Unionists have been here for 300 years. They have as much right to stay on this Island as any of the rest of us. They are going nowhere, whether we like it or not.

Also, I am pretty certain that there will be a referendum in the Republic. How could there not be? If we get to have a say on EU laws, then of course we are going to have a vote on a united Ireland.

Here's a scenario no one has raised yet, but which is realistic possibility. 10 years from now, the majority in the North is Catholic and votes (narrowly) in favour of a United Ireland. In the Republic, during the lead up to referendum, it is spelled out to us very clearly what a United Ireland will mean - that is all the bits of Britishness that we would need to swallow to keep the moderate Unionists on board, plus the inevitable return to violence by the nut case loyalists. Only this time, there are bombs going off in Cork, Dublin and Galway.

The voters in the Republic let that eventuality sink in and decide to vote against a United Ireland.

What then?

The UK govt say, "thanks and good luck" to the North. The Irish govt is in a very tricky and volatile situation then following the vote against in the Republic.

Its a complete mess. Wishing the Unionists would eff off back to Scotland isn't an option. Increased taxes, a belligerent Unionist population, and psychotic loyalist paramilitaries is what we in Cork and elsewhere in Ireland have to seriously consider.

lawred2

Meursault wrote: »

The idea of "re-settling" Unionists in Scotland is so far removed from reality that its laughable. The Unionists have been here for 300 years. They have as much right to stay on this Island as any of the rest of us. They are going nowhere, whether we like it or not.

Also, I am pretty certain that there will be a referendum in the Republic. How could there not be? If we get to have a say on EU laws, then of course we are going to have a vote on a united Ireland.

Here's a scenario no one has raised yet, but which is realistic possibility. 10 years from now, the majority in the North is Catholic and votes (narrowly) in favour of a United Ireland. In the Republic, during the lead up to referendum, it is spelled out to us very clearly what a United Ireland will mean - that is all the bits of Britishness that we would need to swallow to keep the moderate Unionists on board, plus the inevitable return to violence by the nut case loyalists. Only this time, there are bombs going off in Cork, Dublin and Galway.

The voters in the Republic let that eventuality sink in and decide to vote against a United Ireland.

What then?

The UK govt say, "thanks and good luck" to the North. The Irish govt is in a very tricky and volatile situation then following the vote against in the Republic.

Its a complete mess. Wishing the Unionists would eff off back to Scotland isn't an option. Increased taxes, a belligerent Unionist population, and psychotic loyalist paramilitaries is what we in Cork and elsewhere in Ireland have to seriously consider.

urm there was a referendum

it was the Good Friday Agreement

It was voted for overwhelmingly

riffmongous

In fairness the only "pressure" on unionists to move in the event of a united Ireland has come from unionists themselves

arlene-foster-says-i-would-probably-move-if-there-was-united-ireland

https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2018/04/05/news/arlene-foster-says-i-would-probably-move-if-there-was-united-ireland-1297022/

horsebox1977

Damien360 wrote: »

Northern Ireland runs a deficit of close to £10billion each year. That’s Sterling. That’s every single year of costs greater than all tax incomes close to 10billion.

How would that be paid for if there was a united ireland ? That would exclude costs of integration of services which would be considerable. So the state announcement of tax increases across the board. Need to find an extra 10billion from 5 million people. Currently a whole section of society sits on its arse and pays nothing in income tax. So that leaves the rest of us to foot the bill. The rich don’t leave their money behind to get taxed so that’s just the middle again paying.

If it was announced that reunification was happening, then I could only see every single region and service getting cuts drastically to pay for it. Cork would not be excluded from those cuts.

NI is a basket case. Until NI votes for reunification and only NI residents vote, not the loons around the border, then there is little point talking about reunification.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/analysis/scrutinising-northern-irelands-sizeable-fiscal-deficit-is-interesting-38964731.html[url][/url]

According to Senator Mark Daly the figure is closer to 700m, his job was to provide a feasibility study into a UI.

Any economist will tell you Ireland will prosper in a UI.

Markcheese

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The Tories couldn't give a monkeys about Northern Ireland.


Having been up there many times during my time in Dublin the only way that it "works" is to be a grey area. The best solution was that pre-Brexit, where it was just NI... a little bit Irish but a little bit British. Forcing it either way (Brexit or reunification) will just be a headache.

That's more or less how I feel ,
I think the establishment in the uk , civil service ect have an Interest in the north , even it's just keeping it quiet ,
I think the northern ireland protocol ,where the north gets to profit from being under eu regs while still being part of the uk is probably the only way to keep norn iron on track after a brexit debacle -
There is change in the north - less and less people are identifying or voting as unionist or nationalist -
But they're not the ones making the noise -

I assume that the british government would be hoping to get away from a the huge budget deficits -
And if they can see that coming they'd invest in projects to help a normal economy along - as should we in the south -
But I'm ok with the north remaining a grey area , as long as it's peaceful and normalizing ...

Cork is what it is- just a small city to the south of a small country , it's nice here - leave it as it is ( maybe with better local public transport )

Damien360

horsebox1977 wrote: »

According to Senator Mark Daly the figure is closer to 700m, his job was to provide a feasibility study into a UI.

Any economist will tell you Ireland will prosper in a UI.

That’s some difference. 10 billion vs 700 million. Despite uk revenue figures for many years stating the figure in many billions. Did the senator employ leprechaun economics ?

the beer revolu

horsebox1977 wrote: »

Any economist will tell you Ireland will prosper in a UI.

In the long term, yes.
In the short term, absolutely not.

Meursault

lawred2 wrote: »

urm there was a referendum

it was the Good Friday Agreement

It was voted for overwhelmingly

That was not a referendum on a United Ireland. That was a vote to drop articles 2 and 3 in the Irish constitution. It was also an official recognition that those in the North could be Irish, British, or both. Finally, there was agreement by the UK that a referendum could be held on a United Ireland in the North, if that was the popular consensus. That is decided by the NI secretary. It is nothing to do with us. Of course there would need to be a referendum in the Republic also.

Do you really think we just accept a united Ireland under any conditions, if the Northerners voted in favour?

cantalach

lawred2 wrote: »

urm there was a referendum

it was the Good Friday Agreement

It was voted for overwhelmingly

The GFA talks about unification only when there is a majority of people North and South, and that could only be determined with another referendum. If such a referendum ever happens, I certainly won't be voting for unification. As in, there is zero chance.

Feisar

Damien360 wrote: »

Northern Ireland runs a deficit of close to £10billion each year. That’s Sterling. That’s every single year of costs greater than all tax incomes close to 10billion

A fair point and it has no bearing on us but most of the UK is the same. Basically London bank rolls Britain.