Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Cork2021

Covid app seems to be updating hospital numbers and case numbers but not vaccines. At least it’s a start

Jim_Hodge

eskimohunt wrote: »

I'd like to know what the estimated immunity levels in the population is / and will be in the coming weeks.

Vaccine immunity + estimated community immunity = ???

It's a simple formula. NPHET should release this information for public consumption.

It's not hard to work out yourself but gets complicated by levels of immunity.

If you take immunity to be after both doses then including an assumption of continued immunity among those that contracted the virus, plus no overlap between the groups, we are at 15.5% of the population.
If you take fist doses to provide immunity the figure is 43.6%. (As of mid May as the data hub isn't updated)

But it's important to note that vaccines don't automatically equate to full immunity and there would be considerable double counting in reality.

If you have the vaccination figure, you have the infection figures, you can easily work out the percentages.

Jim_Hodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's not hard to work out yourself but gets complicated by levels of immunity.

If you take immunity to be after both doses then including an assumption of continued immunity among those that contracted the virus, plus no overlap between the groups, we are at 15.5% of the population.
If you take fist doses to provide immunity the figure is 43.6%. (As of mid May as the data hub isn't updated)

But it's important to note that vaccines don't automatically equate to full immunity and there would be considerable double counting in reality.

If you have the vaccination figure, you have the infection figures, you can easily work out the percentages.

Depends on the vaccine administered, and the time delay too; and what NPHET have deemed to be the likely community spread / asymptomatics / close contacts most likely to have been positive but didn't get tested.

Pfizer, for example, tend to allow 11-days before antibody levels start to be developed at a more rapid rate.

So yes, we could arrive at a ball-park figure but I'm sure the number crunchers in NPHET could reel off a far more exact figure.

Chris_5339762

eskimohunt wrote: »

Richard Chambers released a very powerful graph several days ago and, once you've seen it, you can't unsee it.

It shows how far along with the vaccination program we have come, and how this irreversible progress should - if the political will exists - allow society to reopen without further delay.

It also puts into stark focus your concerns and how things really aren't as bad as you have perhaps understandably made out.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1400446719876206595

96% of 70-80 year olds and 99% of 80+ year olds had the first dose. I hope those are the true values and not with caveats, if they are that must be one of the highest takeups in the world.

416 new cases.

The number of people in hospital stands at 74, with 29 in ICU, which is up one on yesterday.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1401178649055969283

ninebeanrows

Let's predict the headlines next Thursday as post Bank Holiday cyclical quirks show

Covid hospitalizations surge by 50% as fear of 4th wave grows

Covid surge as hospitalizations grow exponentially

ninebeanrows

Delta variant aids 4th wave surge as travel plans for 19th July are thrown into doubt

Dr. Bre

How many variants will we likely see?

ninebeanrows

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Let's predict the headlines next Thursday as post Bank Holiday cyclical quirks show

Undercover footage exposes NPHET binge in Grogan's basement.

• Holohan claims he was only there to pick-up a friend from work.

odyssey06

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Richard Chambers released a very powerful graph several days ago and, once you've seen it, you can't unsee it.

It shows how far along with the vaccination program we have come, and how this irreversible progress should - if the political will exists - allow society to reopen without further delay.

They need to sort out the high risk population first ie cohort 4 and 7.

Telling his graph doesnt even list them.

Renjit

Dr. Bre wrote: »

How many variants will we likely see?

That depends. But largely if we complete vaccinations worldwide then the frequency of variants will reduce.

"As more people get vaccinated, we expect virus circulation to decrease, which will then lead to fewer mutations."

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-effects-of-virus-variants-on-covid-19-vaccines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLvY210yQkE

Heathdata.org is trying to produce more accurate estimates of the actual number of deaths caused by COVID-19.

They estimate, for example, that rather than the 3.7 million deaths reported - the true figure is more likely around 8 million.

Their current projection is that this will reach approx. 9.3 million by 1 September.

I think it's reasonable to assume that reported deaths are massively undercounted given the unreliability of data from many countries around the world. India, for instance, is thought to have mortality from the virus 3-5 times higher (currently reported death is 344,000).

wadacrack

People now forecasting headlines etc. Maybe just don't post in a Covid thread and enjoy your summer. Variants are going to need to be monitored gong forward. Atm its the delta one in the UK. No point in forecasting negative headlines that have yet to happen.

WoollyRedHat

I personally won't be flying with Delta Airlines anytime soon.

Wolf359f

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I personally won't be flying with Delta Airlines anytime soon.

They will probably be serving Corona beer on the flight!

Wolf359f

We still don't get the 10pm HSE hospital reports, but the hub gets updated

In Hospital: 70 down from 74 on Saturday, Last Sunday it was 99!
In ICU: 27, down from 29 on Saturday, Last Sunday it was 35.
7 day average admissions/cases confirmed in hospitals is 9 per day, down from 10 a week ago.

Driving back from the coast, made the mistake of letting the dial rest on Radio 1. Reporter on the street getting the assessment of hospitality owners finally reopening for business tomorrow. Two leading questions she asked, "do you think the pubs will trigger another wave?" & "will people ever want to drink indoors again?". Over to Newstalk before I damaged the radio. RTÉ are clinging tenaciously to the lie that hospitality is primarily responsible for the spread of Covid, they can't resist throwing digs left, right and centre. As if pubs, cafés & restaurants haven't been harassed enough already with extended closures. Give. Them. A. Chance.

313 new cases, ICU down 2 people to 27.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1401539595662147584

Economics101

Deleted User wrote: »

Driving back from the coast, made the mistake of letting the dial rest on Radio 1. Reporter on the street getting the assessment of hospitality owners finally reopening for business tomorrow. Two leading questions she asked, "do you think the pubs will trigger another wave?" & "will people ever want to drink indoors again?". Over to Newstalk before I damaged the radio. RTÉ are clinging tenaciously to the lie that hospitality is primarily responsible for the spread of Covid, they can't resist throwing digs left, right and centre. As if pubs, cafés & restaurants haven't been harassed enough already with extended closures. Give. Them. A. Chance.

Some other RTE genius will probably blame travel for Covid outbreaks and the next day will blame football crowds, and the next day will find yet another scapegoat. It's all single-issue nonsense catering to the simple-minded

manofwisdom

[Deleted User] wrote: »

313 new cases, ICU down 2 people to 27.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1401539595662147584

We had 124 in hospital June 6th 2020 and 36 in ICU and nobody vaccinated compared to 3 million now, needlessly to say the decision makers are a lot more cautious this summer.

bb1234567

It's great to be able to say confidently it's all behind us now. You really don't realise just how much the last year of fixation on one issue and media attention does to your health until it's over . Like a noisy machinery you get used to and then feel such relief when it's turned off. It's such a weight lifted, ive started work again , meeting new people , doing social activities again and it feels like such a renaissance of mind and body. It's like my brain has awoken from hiberbation , I feel interest in things again for the first time since I can remember, we really didn't live the last 1.5 years

manofwisdom

manofwisdom wrote: »

We had 124 in hospital June 6th 2020 and 36 in ICU and nobody vaccinated compared to 3 million now, needlessly to say the decision makers are a lot more cautious this summer.

Too cautious, I think you mean.

martingriff

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Let's predict the headlines next Thursday as post Bank Holiday cyclical quirks show

Covid hospitalizations surge by 50% as fear of 4th wave grows

Covid surge as hospitalizations grow exponentially

The CMO will be at fault due to his tweet last week

martingriff

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I personally won't be flying with Delta Airlines anytime soon.

Took me 2 long to get it. LOL

TheDoctor

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's great to be able to say confidently it's all behind us now. You really don't realise just how much the last year of fixation on one issue and media attention does to your health until it's over . Like a noisy machinery you get used to and then feel such relief when it's turned off. It's such a weight lifted, ive started work again , meeting new people , doing social activities again and it feels like such a renaissance of mind and body. It's like my brain has awoken from hiberbation , I feel interest in things again for the first time since I can remember, we really didn't live the last 1.5 years

Went back to the office 2 days last week.

Went for a drink after work on Friday.

As above, felt a different person.

Looking forward to getting to use the local gym again next week.

eagle eye

Let's be clear here, and I've got my two jabs already, it's great to have these vaccines but it's not necessarily the end of this. We still need to be careful, we still need to have a bit of cop on.
It's not going back to normal yet, close to it but you don't want to be mixing with people you don't know who may be carrying variants that your vaccine doesn't work great against.
We have to wait for most of the world to be vaccinated to relax fully.
I'm looking forward to a great summer where I can meet up with loads of friends and hopefully have a holiday.
What I won't be doing is going anywhere with crowds of strangers who I know next to nothing about.

And again on all the moaning about RTE in particular and others. Will you just not listen to them if it bothers you that much. It'll lead to a much more stress free life for you.

Turtwig

We have to wait for the world to be vaccinated that is true. There's nothing to suggest we should be fearful of contact with other people as long as we're fully vaccinated. Even better of course if they are fully vaxxed too.

At the very worst vaccines have bought us a limited window of freedom. It'd be foolish not to use that opportunity either way.

User1998

eagle eye wrote: »

Let's be clear here, and I've got my two jabs already, it's great to have these vaccines but it's not necessarily the end of this. We still need to be careful, we still need to have a bit of cop on.
It's not going back to normal yet, close to it but you don't want to be mixing with people you don't know who may be carrying variants that your vaccine doesn't work great against.
We have to wait for most of the world to be vaccinated to relax fully.
I'm looking forward to a great summer where I can meet up with loads of friends and hopefully have a holiday.
What I won't be doing is going anywhere with crowds of strangers who I know next to nothing about

You can keep being cautious all you like but me and plenty of others are ready to get on with our lives thanks very much

Ficheall

User1998 wrote: »

You can keep being cautious all you like but me and plenty of others are ready to get on with our lives thanks very much

It's possible to both be cautious and get on with one's life...

Oscar Bravo

eagle eye wrote: »

Let's be clear here, and I've got my two jabs already, it's great to have these vaccines but it's not necessarily the end of this. We still need to be careful, we still need to have a bit of cop on.
It's not going back to normal yet, close to it but you don't want to be mixing with people you don't know who may be carrying variants that your vaccine doesn't work great against.
We have to wait for most of the world to be vaccinated to relax fully.
I'm looking forward to a great summer where I can meet up with loads of friends and hopefully have a holiday.
What I won't be doing is going anywhere with crowds of strangers who I know next to nothing about.

And again on all the moaning about RTE in particular and others. Will you just not listen to them if it bothers you that much. It'll lead to a much more stress free life for you.

Guineys now selling black out curtains for the more hardcore twicher . you should look into gettin a pair.